.
A week after the Ame Yan election, the stock prices of both Bingxin and Yike suffered a shock. The former suffered a large decline, while the latter suffered a large decline.
As many people have said, the wealth of the leader of Yike this week has evaporated more than the money spent in many business competitions in the past. However, in this week, the media did not get any response from Mr. Fang.
Yi Ke also remained silent.
According to observations, Yike's production capacity supply does not seem to be affected, and the sales volume of the Mars 8.8 series has increased instead of falling, which has provided certain support for the company's market value.
However, it was only on the first day of the second week that a clearer-targeted measure came out from BIS in Washington, which drafted additional new regulations for Ice Core International.
In addition to last week's first-instance, second-limit, and three-year ban, it is now also required to review Bingxin International's Meilican and its customers listed in the United States, which means imposing additional import restrictions and license requirements on the technology and products from Bingxin International.
In the first week, the import of ice cores was restricted, and in the second week, the export of ice cores was restricted. Both ends of the trade were shackled.
As a result, Ice Core's customers such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Yike will be directly affected, especially... The goal of BIS is already obvious, but it also supplements it to provide buffer time for Ice Core's customers.
A temporary import license will be provided to protect the interests of American and listed companies.
Ice Core has many overseas customers, with the Americas accounting for 23%. Even if they can apply for a temporary license, this will undoubtedly cast a deep shadow on the prospects for smooth cooperation.
As a part of the supply chain, any enterprise naturally hates uncertainty.
As the only user of Ice Core 16nm, Yike naturally faces a greater shadow, and the impact and doubts it suffers are naturally deeper. This is reflected in its market value, which has dropped from the highest point of 420 billion US dollars after the Q4 financial report.
$370 billion.
Yike dropped to 3,700, but there was still no reaction. It just applied for a temporary license from BIS in accordance with regulations as soon as possible.
However, it does not respond, and some people need it to respond.
On March 9, in response to the recent fluctuations in Yike's stock price, the SEC requested Yike to explain the reasons for the fluctuations, disclose more information, and provide other factors that may affect the stock price changes.
One day later, which was also the 11th day of international restrictions on ice cores in the Eastern United States, Yike finally gave a formal response.
"We are deeply concerned about the recent significant fluctuations in Yike's share price and are fully aware of the impact this may have on investor confidence and market stability."
"We are working hard to ensure the stability of Yi's global supply chain and actively explore cooperation with other suppliers."
"We are applying for a temporary license from BIS and have conducted effective communication."
"We will continue to pay close attention to market dynamics and further strengthen communication with investors based on actual conditions to ensure information transparency and protect the interests of shareholders and investors."
The statement jointly reviewed by Yike's management, legal team and financial department mainly released two pieces of news that relieved the market. One is that it has applied for a license, and the other is that it is exploring cooperation with other suppliers.
From the market's perspective, although Ice Core is indeed an important supplier of Yike, Yike is not without options and cannot cooperate with other wafer manufacturing companies. However, Yike's silence in the past 11 days is disturbing.
What is Yi Ke thinking?
In other words, what is Mr. Fang thinking about?
Silence always tends to spread uneasiness.
Now, Yi Ke's statement has finally broken the silence and is considered a positive attitude.
However, just after Yike's response, the media are still trying to find Mr. Fang's own voice. Without his personal response, can Yike's current statement represent his true attitude?
But Fang Zhuo still has not accepted any interviews from domestic or foreign media.
At the same time, some media also turned around to interview reporters from Taiwan, Samsung, GlobalFoundries, and UMC, the world's leading foundry companies, in an attempt to verify the authenticity of Yike's statement.
Taiwan reporter: We have not contacted Yike Company for the time being.
Samsung: We have a positive attitude towards cooperation with Yike.
GLOBALFOUNDRIES: Yike has made preliminary contact with us.
UMC: We are willing to have in-depth cooperation with Yike, but we have not yet discussed related matters.
The media asked for answers from four companies, and only GlobalFoundries said it had contact with Yike. This... is not satisfactory. At least, Yike did not lie.
However, can GF’s technology and processes replace ice cores?
This requires a big question mark.
On March 11, just the third day after BIS added measures, affected customers of Bingxin International received the first temporary import license. AMD announced that it had completed the BIS approval and obtained a 90-day import authorization.
In just three days, AMDA became the first provisionally licensed company.
Moreover, before this, AMD had only very little cooperation with Ice Core, and it was only recently that it strengthened technical exchanges with Yike.
Some media believe that AMD is obviously "fearful of others but greedy" and wants to seek the blessing of ice core in advanced technology, and BIS's approval is also very fast...
Why was BIS approved so quickly?
This is also seen as a signal to reassure the market that it is not difficult to obtain temporary licenses.
Yike's stock price has achieved a certain degree of stability. After all, once the supplier problem is solved, its reputation and R&D over the years will still remain highly competitive.
And whether it can be solved...
The product situation in the second half of the year will become an important sign. Assuming that Yike can obtain a temporary license from BIS, the 90 days will only be until the end of June. Q3 and Q4 will still require two licenses. Since it is temporary,
It is destined not to exist for a long time.
Therefore, it is difficult for Yike to solve the problem until next year. According to the habits of the past two years, whether the new products in Q4 can maintain competitiveness will determine the rise or fall of Yike in the global market.
The short-term shadow has not spread for the time being, and Yike still faces great challenges in the medium and long term.
Not only that, while Yike is entangled with the SEC, BIS and public opinion media, direct competitors in the market have begun to launch a new round of their strategies.
On March 14, Apple settled in Alibaba, set up an online flagship store, and opened up official direct online channels in addition to the official website. There are also reports that Apple and Alibaba will launch greater cooperation this year on June 18.
What kind of greater cooperation?
It's nothing more than a price discount.
Unlike Apple's still coy attack, Samsung's mobile phone discounts are very straightforward. Not only is the flagship Trump phone discounted, but it is also tied to a number of unprecedented preferential packages with domestic operators.
Since the launch of its flagship last year, Samsung has been the worst performer among the Samsung family, and its market share has been eroded the most by Yike. This time, I encountered a rare good opportunity and went straight to full power, hoping to make a splash at Yike's base camp.
Turn around.
In addition to the two old rivals Samsung and Apple, Chen Fuyang, the head of Qualcomm who lost the lawsuit not long ago, also appeared in mainland China, intending to take advantage of Yike's troubles to provide more competitiveness to Chinese mobile phone manufacturers.
Thanks to the development of Yike, the mobile phone industry chain in mainland China has become increasingly mature, and the competitiveness of mid- and low-end mobile phones has become stronger and stronger. Qualcomm's standard essential patents had to modify the licensing framework after losing the lawsuit, and required a different process from the past.
Turn to strategy, and this turn begins with the Chinese market, which accounts for a large proportion of Qualcomm.
Rivals are promoting promotions, Qualcomm is circling, and Yike is facing a situation with internal and external troubles. In such a situation, even many short sellers who have suffered from Yike are ready to take action.
On this occasion, the spread of some gossip dispelled the thoughts of short sellers.
It is said that Intel has started negotiations with Yike and will provide foundry services.
Also, the president of Yike YMS posted a short essay in the circle of friends, talking about Yike's Zhurong chip, and exploring the possibility of external licensing.
So far, Intel and Ice Core International are the only companies in the world with 14/16 process technology, and the former does not conduct wafer foundry for external parties. Therefore, it has not been included by the industry and media as a replacement for Ice Core.
discuss.
But now... Intel's viability is a bombshell.
If Yike's Zhurong chips are sold externally, they will no longer be used only in its own models. The market value of high-end mobile phone chips will undoubtedly rise again, which will further increase competition with Qualcomm.
With such continuous news coming out, the short sellers stopped in time. It seems that Mr. Fang still has a lot of cards to play, so... let's let each other go first.
This chapter has been completed!