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As the Spring Festival approaches, Fang Zhuo has become even busier than in the first half of the month. In addition to daily tasks, he also needs to travel to multiple cities for meetings.
However, it is not just him who is busy this year, Yike and Bingxin will be equally busy, especially Bingxin has canceled his annual leave and still needs to work overtime. As for the holidays...
When the photoresist is exhausted, if domestic manufacturers do not make a breakthrough, Bingxin will probably have the longest holiday since its establishment.
Fang Zhuo did not spend the Spring Festival at home this year. Instead, he made Luzhou the last place to hold a meeting. After communicating with the leaders here, he settled in Bingxin.
On February 5, with only two days left before New Year's Eve, Fang Zhuo went to Beijing for a meeting to make a comprehensive report on the situation between Bingxin and Yike. However, he saw a special report from Fox News on the way.
.
——Exploring the Achilles Heel of Yike’s business empire.
Unsurprisingly, when he arrived at the conference room in Beijing, this rather rational report became the focus of everyone's attention.
"In the past six months, Yike has been almost the most watched company in the world."
“This company’s market capitalization ranks among the top in the world. It has a wide range of markets and is loved by consumers. With it as its core, it has derived businesses with unlimited potential such as mobile communications and social platforms. In the near future, there are even computer chips.
Product news comparable to Intel’s.”
"This company and its subsidiaries are called the 'Yike Group' in China. However, just like the hero Achilles in Homer's epic, Yike's business empire also has its Achilles' heel."
"We recently visited Yike's Achilles Heel and took photos of the Fab1-6 factory of Ice Core International in Luzhou, China."
"This Fab1-6 factory has the world's most advanced 16nm production line equipped with the second-generation FinFET process. As of our reporting, this process is still about 20% ahead of competitors in performance."
"It is worth mentioning that the Ryzen series CPUs released by AMD half a month ago are manufactured using this process. Unlike Yike, which has always worked closely with Ice Core to the point that it is difficult to cut, AMD chose to use this process.
It is undoubtedly puzzling to join the camp of ice core technology at a time of crisis."
"According to reliable information sources, Ice Core's second-generation 16nm production capacity is only provided to Yike's Mars series and AMD's Ryzen series products. The production lines are currently operating day and night to prepare for the upcoming June."
"From November last year to the most solemn traditional festival in China, Ice Core canceled its holidays because BIS restricted its acquisition of new photolithography collagen materials, and the shelf life of this material is usually only half a year, which is what many people predicted
The timing of the ice core shutdown and the collapse of Yike.”
"Perhaps Ice Core will regret not building a new production line."
"Ice Core's second-generation 16nm process was upgraded from the first-generation production line. If a second factory is built, its current 16nm production capacity will not stop at 16,000 pieces."
"Assuming that the last batch of photoresist supplied by Japanese photoresist manufacturers is used up, Ice Core can only produce 1.6*6=96,000 wafers in 6 months, which is theoretically enough to provide Yike with two to three wafers in the future.
year’s worth of chips.”
"However, due to losses in actual production caused by wafer utilization, testing and packaging losses, chip size and other factors, the actual output will be far lower than the theoretical maximum."
"According to past industry conditions, these 96,000 wafers will ultimately be able to produce only about 45 million qualified chips."
"We also consider Yike's risk management. If it reserves ice cores when it has the mass production capacity of the second-generation 16nm process, this number may be increased to 60 million, but Yike will withdraw from the U.S. market.
We have been working hard to supply before, and 60 million units is probably the most optimistic scenario."
"One situation that can be used as evidence is that we have received the most authentic news from European operators. The supply of Yike's Slefy series products has been reduced, and it is not ruled out that it will be completely discontinued in the future."
"Yike will undoubtedly give priority to ensuring its most popular Mars series flagship products despite limited production capacity."
"60 million chips, many people may not have much idea about this number, but just look at Yike's financial report to know how embarrassed the chip scale of this number will be. Yike sold it globally in Q3 last year
More than 70 million flagship phones."
"We make a reasonable estimate that even if 30% of the U.S. market is removed, Yike's normal sales volume in 2016 should remain at least 126 million units."
"So, the facts are clearly before us. There is at least a 50% gap in the supply of Yike's core parts."
"The good news is that although AMD has sold ice-core 16nm chips, it is still far from Intel's rival. If the combined sales of Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 5 this year exceed 3 million pieces, it will be a success. This will not be divided into
Taking away too much ice core capacity.”
"The bad news is... the rest is probably bad news."
"BIS has found Yike's Achilles' heel. Competitors including Apple, Samsung, Taiwanese and China's mobile phone brand OPPO are already ecstatic and plan to taste the wonderful taste of Yike's decline."
"We did not interview Mr. Fang during this trip, so we could only stand outside the Fab1-6 factory of Bingxin International and ask a question that we wanted to hear Mr. Fang answer."
"There are 116 days until June 1st, Mr. Fang, what should we do?"
what to do?
Fox News was unable to ask Mr. Fang’s questions face to face, so the leader read them out in the conference room.
Fang Zhuo smiled and replied: "What can we do?"
Anyway, the opponents will definitely help organize the grand event.
He objectively commented: "Fox's data estimate is quite different. Our internal estimate of the chips that Ice Core will be able to provide to Yike by the end of May is 62 million. This is probably after taking into account the withdrawal of engineers from American manufacturers."
The impact on our yield rate has been gradually adjusted back."
"As for AMD, their sales forecast for this year's flagship Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 5 is 2.6 million pieces, which is almost 10% of this market segment. Bingxin will prepare 3 million chips for them.
."
"Looking at it this way, Fox's assessment is indeed good."
Although AMD has the blessing of ice core technology, computer CPUs are not just about the CPU, but also depend on the support of major manufacturers. This aspect takes time to accumulate.
The production capacity of 3 million pieces is enough for AMD this year.
Let’s see what happens next year.
Yike doesn't know how it will survive next year, AMD will have to depend on fate.
However, the leader was obviously not interested in the capabilities of Fox News and the situation of AMD. He only asked about the situation of Yike with concern: "So, Yike mobile phone can only guarantee the sales of 62 million units? Now it is only stuck in the photoresist.
On top of the material?”
Fang Zhuo replied: "Well, this year Yike can only sell 62 million units to Europe and China. Therefore, we will suspend the sales of the Self series, reduce the supply of the standard version of the Mars series, and control the sales of mobile phone channels.
Sales speed, try to survive this period and see if there are any favorable changes in photoresist."
There are vacancies in core parts, and the supply of mobile phones is naturally limited.
Yike cannot reserve too many spare chips. If it doesn't make money in the U.S. market, it won't know when the next time will be. The European market needs to do its best to maintain it, and the growth rate in the local market is very fierce.
Under such circumstances, the product supply of the Selfy series has been slowed down and then stopped. This year, after the Spring Festival, the supply of the Mars series will also need to be gradually restricted to ensure that there is still a voice of Yike products in the market.
"The launch of Mars 10 can only be postponed, and our press conference in the second half of the year may not be held." Fang Zhuo introduced the product supply situation, and then talked about the broken conventions, smiling, "The good news is that although there are no new products
, but our Mars 9 is still competitive enough. The bad news is that there is only competitiveness but no goods."
Fang Zhuo was still smiling, and the other leaders didn't look very good.
A leader who attended the meeting for the first time asked: "With just one photoresist, is it so difficult? Is it true that as long as the problem of photoresist is solved, there will be no problem with production capacity?"
"At this stage, it can be roughly said that the reduction in yield and profit caused by other problems are acceptable." Fang Zhuo first answered the latter question, then pondered for a moment, and explained, "We want to talk about photolithography.
We can’t just talk about photoresist when it comes to glue.”
"Photoresist is indeed a raw material for us, but photoresist also has its raw materials, such as resin and photoinitiator."
"Resin is the core component of photoresist. Its solubility change in the developer directly affects the quality of photolithography patterns. ArF photoresist contains 2-3 different resins. The identification and selection of each resin is very difficult.
Suppliers in this area are Shin-Etsu Chemical and JSR Co., Ltd. of Japan, as well as DuPont of the United States."
"The photoinitiator accounts for a small proportion, but it is very important for the photosensitive properties of the photoresist. Its type and dosage must be accurately matched. The suppliers in this regard are BASF and Merck in Germany, and IGM Resins in the Netherlands.
"
"Xinyang Luzhou's research and development still uses photoinitiators from BASF in Germany, but it is no longer able to purchase materials from Japanese and American manufacturers. This part also relies on independent research and development."
Fang Zhuo cited these two examples and sighed: "In fact, this is still the epitome of an industry problem. The restrictions from Washington and BIS have forced Ice Core to reshape the original global supply chain, but it will take time."
The raw material of ice core, photoresist, is a problem, and the resin and photoinitiator of photolithographic collagen material are also problems. These are the epitome of the challenges faced by the industry this time.
The current challenge is still focused on ice cores, but just looking at the campaign noise that America has made, we know that its spread will not be too far away.
"Mr. Fang, if you don't read this manuscript, you are really a good doctor after a long illness." A leader couldn't help but burst out when he saw the head of Bingxin talking about the challenges of the industry, the problems of Bingxin and the situation of Yike, completely off-script.
He said a word of praise.
Fang Zhuo smiled and said: "It's okay. Even if I don't look at the data or the problems, the media and institutions will try their best to write out the problems and data and push them in front of me from various channels. I will remember them all just by looking at them.
."
He thought for a while and continued: "Like Academicians Liang and Academician Hu, they are veterans who have been involved in the industry for decades. I can also be considered a semi-professional who has been involved in industry issues for a long time."
There was a smile in the conference room.
Indeed, if there is no problem, there is no need for Mr. Fang to look at it. What really comes before him is either this problem or that problem.
"The photoresist problem will be solved. Xinyang's R&D has made progress. It already has a three-year joint R&D foundation. We have also spent a lot of money to recruit people from the United States and Japan, which can bring some help, but we just need to wait.
."
"Now we still need to see how Ice Core and SMIC can play a leading role in the industry. Only by truly relying on the progress of the entire industry can the progress of Ice Core and SMIC be solid."
"When things have reached this stage, if you don't have determination, your opponents will make you determined; if you don't have patience, your opponents will limit your patience."
"Therefore, both Yike and Bingxin are quite determined and patient, and will solve the problems they encounter on the basis of objective laws."
Fang Zhuo's attitude was very simple and he did not exaggerate the situation of Yike and Bing Xin.
There is no need for him to exaggerate, the data, markets, and various issues written in the media reports can also be seen by the people sitting in the conference room.
The meeting ended and the Chinese New Year was approaching. Before Fang Zhuo left, he received blessings from many leaders that "the coming year will be better." He also passed on this blessing to friends in Luzhou who were solving problems.
When people arrive in Luzhou, the first thing they do is to see Wang Fuxiang, the head of Xinyang who is still squatting here, and report to him immediately.
Wang Fuxiang's mentality was still stable at first. After all, he had communicated with Mr. Fang once in Shanghai before. But when Mr. Fang revealed the names of leaders in Beijing who were concerned about Xinyang's R&D progress, he felt...
A bit of an overwhelming honor!
This year there is no 29th day in the lunar calendar. The next day, Wang Fuxiang, Mr. Fang, Academician Hu and others spent New Year's Eve together in the Bingxin Canteen. He also felt the optimism here.
Professor Hu Zhengming delivered a New Year's message to some employees in the cafeteria:
"Now is the most difficult stage, but this stage will pass. Regardless of whether the ice core production is reduced or suspended in the second half of the year, we will recover quickly."
"Mr. Fang has often said over the years that we should keep making progress. Yesterday I asked him what he thought about the current shortage of raw materials for ice cores. After all, they are all out of stock, so there is no way to make progress."
"He said, take a step back in order to jump further!"
Hu Zhengming, who rarely drinks, raised his small wine glass in the Bingxin canteen and blessed: "I hope everyone can dance further with Bingxin in the coming year!"
Fang Zhuo smiled and raised his glass, noticing that some people's faces were still worried, but some also had smiles on their faces.
I don't know why, but although the problem remains the same, he is in a really good mood on this night with fireworks flying all over the sky.
For this reason, Fang Zhuo, who had not given a calligraphy gift for a long time, gave the head of Xinyang a calligraphy treasure with a stroke of his pen in the office after dinner.
——Semiconductor weightlifting champion.
Wang Fuxiang couldn't laugh or cry. He liked "The Ming Dynasty" very much and understood Mr. Fang's meaning instantly. The Yike business empire is now on my shoulders!
On the night of New Year's Eve, he returned to the hotel with the words. On the way, he looked at the constantly shining night sky, and felt a lot of smugness in his heart. He tried his best in photoresist, "I am Wang Fuxiang of Xinyang."
This chapter has been completed!