There was a lot of excitement on the stage.

The audience was stunned.

Among the people attending the class were bank employees, business bosses, economists engaged in macroeconomics, and housewives who knew nothing about finance...

Logically speaking, it is difficult to have an idea that can unify them.

If you explain it in depth, elites will understand it, but novices will be confused.

The explanation is simple, novices can understand it, but elites are dismissive of it.

However, the bank's big customer sharing sessions only focus on wealth and never consider the quality of the customers themselves, resulting in a huge gap in the level of the guests. The low level may only have graduated from elementary school, while the high level may have a doctorate from a prestigious school.

So most of the time, training always makes me feel lonely.

After listening to the experts chattering on the stage, they ended up eating and drinking, and finally went home in a daze with gifts.

Year after year, family after family, the process is always the same.

But, today is really crazy.

When Teacher Han opened the class, he did not teach students in accordance with their aptitude, but focused on being simple and crude.

There are very few professional terms and he is always pretentious.

However, the effect is quite good...

Han Lie lazily glanced back at the PPT and wanted to omit the first point, but the students refused.

“I won’t talk much about the big economic cycle, you can just look at the macro data yourself.

If we only mention the past two years, the World Bank's Southeast Asia Economic Development Report, UBS and Deutsche's periodic outlook reports are all more interesting.

You can read the things produced by the three rice rating agencies, but try to believe as little as possible...

Must ask?

Okay, let me give you an analogy——

There are five large gangs in the city, fighting for territory every day.

The boss has the most thugs, collecting protection fees and lending usury at the same time.

The second brother was a member of the Kuhaha gang. He started out by pulling carts, picking up dung, blacksmithing, and selling box lunches that others didn't like to do, and gradually controlled all the middle- and lower-class businesses in the city.

The third child comes from a family of weapon makers, but his descendants are useless, and now he is left in poverty.

The fourth and fifth sons follow the boss, and they always play tricks on those who are not good enough for a high level or a low level.

The rest are all small miscellaneous fish, and their lives are very difficult. If they don't pay attention when walking, they will be beaten hard by the boss.

Where does the economic cycle come from?

No matter which gang member you belong to, you have to eat, wear clothes and buy all kinds of small things, so everyone's money flows into the second's pocket. Every year, you have to calculate the accounts, and you spend more than you earn.

Once someone can no longer hold on, they have to think of crooked tricks.

Other people's crooked tricks are not very lethal, but the old man not only always pays me when buying things, but also violently collects money when he is in a hurry. He comes out nine times and returns thirteen times, making everyone miserable.

If you want to pay back the money, you have to save money and save money. When you are still tight after saving to a certain extent, the economic crisis will come.

As the crisis develops, some wealthy businessmen can only sell their houses and shops at a cheap price. At this time, if you have cash on hand, you can find big bargains everywhere.

When the boss's money is almost repaid and life goes on, the city will slowly regain its prosperity.

The boss will continue to lend money, the second brother will continue to make money from all directions, and the dead fish and shrimp will naturally be replaced by new gangs.

This is the big economic cycle.

It will continue until everyone who deserves death or not is dead, or someone can't help but flip the table."

As soon as Han Lie finished speaking, there was a burst of laughter and applause.

There was even a middle-aged angry young man who suddenly shouted: "Well done! Let them all die!"

"Ha ha ha ha!"

In 2013, Han Lie's interpretation of the economic cycle is too fresh.

The details are indeed not clear enough, but the overall framework is very easy to establish, especially suitable for laypeople to accept.

People who really understand economics may sneer at it, but now most people don't understand.

Being able to give a general understanding to an audience with no basic knowledge is definitely a skill.

Many young women, whose thoughts were not on economics at all, still looked at Han Lie with bright eyes and listened with great interest.

"Teacher Han, how do you understand idling?"

Han Lie suddenly heard a familiar voice and looked around, only to see Tang Xintian sitting in the corner of the front row at some point and now raising her hand to ask a question.

You have a pretty smile?

Brother Lie muttered in his heart, made a note for her, and then explained it openly.

"The trade surplus is too big, and the country has a pile of foreign exchange reserves that cannot be spent, so they can only exchange them for U.S. debt. This is equivalent to us selling a lot of goods and still being owed money by the other party. Isn't this just an IOU?"

Such a sentence made Tang Xintian's eyes change.

Good guy, dog men are really proficient in economics!

That’s ridiculous. How come he knows everything?

At first, Tang Xintian thought Han Lie had copied the joke somewhere, so she opened her mouth to test it, but ended up hitting the steel plate.

Although Han Lie's answer was very simple, it immediately took root.

It's so easy to pick up, and the clouds are calm and the wind is light, which just proves how solid his foundation is.

Tang Xintian wanted to ask a question, but was interrupted by another customer.

"Teacher Han, who do you think is likely to flip the table?"

Han Lie looked up and saw that the person asking the question was a middle-aged man sitting in the middle of the second row. He was wearing a very simple blue suit and gray shirt. He didn't look gorgeous, but the fabric of the clothes was very high-quality.

Han Lie smiled softly and simply replied: "The boss will definitely take action against the second brother. The third boss will probably take action against the boss's younger brother. The fourth brother is anxious to distance himself from his poor relatives, which will lead to a mess."

The middle-aged man's pupils shrank sharply, and he was shocked by Han Lie's boldness.

I couldn't tell if it was right or not for a while, but this courage to make a judgment is really amazing.

Next, he seemed to want to ask questions, but the subsequent customers stopped.

"Teacher Han, could you please explain the cycles in the stock market in detail?"

"Yes, yes, let's get to the point!"

Haha, for most people, the money right under their noses is more tempting. Who cares what the future holds?

But their positivity is a good thing.

At least it proved that Han Lie had gained their trust, and most people were willing to listen to him.

This is a perfect start to a lecture.

"good."

Han Lie smiled and started talking about the cycles in the stock market.

"The market cycle is much simpler than the economic cycle. It can be summarized in one sentence -

If it cannot fall, it will rise; if it cannot rise, it will fall.

It is very difficult to judge small-level cycles. Professionals may not be able to see it correctly, and it is impossible for me not to make mistakes all the time.

Today I advise everyone to increase leverage and go up, not because I have concluded that 2000 is a big iron bottom.

Do you understand?

Will the index fall below 2,000 points? It may fall below.

Will it fall below 1900 points? There is no chance it will.

Look, it's very blurry and not sure.

The only thing I can be sure of is that below 2,000 points, it is the starting point of a big cycle and a god-given opportunity for so-called value investment.

If you look at it over time, it's very safe.

Therefore, the long-term certainty contained in this short-term uncertainty is the end of a downward cycle and the beginning of an upward cycle.

Why does this happen?

Because there are a total of five kinds of people inside and outside the market.

One is an honest person who engages in industry, one is a smart person who engages in finance, one is a smart person who engages in speculation, one is a leek who follows market fluctuations, and the last one is a fool who is greedy and adventurous and has no brains.

.

Honest people are the first to realize the changes in the industry, such as you businessmen.

During normal business operations, once the market price of your own store deviates too far from the normal value, or if you feel that the industry is about to recover, you will enter the market at a low price.

Open branches, buy back equity, expand business scale...
To be continued...