But soon, everyone's attention was focused on this SARS epidemic.
But it is obvious that no one takes this issue too seriously. Now everyone is concerned about the most. The Americans have already clamored to ask Saddam and his son to leave Iraq, otherwise they will launch a military strike against them.
China has a lot of investment in Iraq, especially in oil. If the war begins, the losses here will be very large. Therefore, all parties involved are urging the government to play a role in this issue and avoid the outbreak of war.
"At least, the Security Council must also reject the US proposal and not allow them to send troops to Iraq under the guise of justice." A businessman who invested heavily in Iraq said worriedly.
Fan Wubing doesn't care about this issue, anyway, he has no investment in Iraq.
Some analysts also believe that once the US-Iran war breaks out, it will definitely have an impact on China's economy.
When US President Bush claimed that he would use "all power" to completely defeat the Saddam regime, the New Gulf War had actually begun and was about to begin, just as some American media said that the actions of the US military were equivalent to the early stages of the war.
Today, when the process of global integration is intensifying, although China is far away from the battlefield, it is undeniable that once a war breaks out, the Chinese economy and the Chinese stock market will inevitably be unable to survive.
Simply put, once the US-Iran war breaks out, its impact will be transmitted to the Chinese economy through several channels such as oil, foreign trade, labor engineering, finance, and investment, and will have a more or less impact on the domestic securities market.
Recently, due to the tense relationship between the United States and Iraq and the sorrow of war, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, with an increase of 30% in the past two months. If the United States and Iraq start war, international crude oil may soar to more than 40 US dollars per barrel. Ethylene and other petrochemical basic raw materials are bullish in the future, and plastic raw materials are expected to rise. The stock price of plastic raw materials has risen against the trend a few days ago.
The price fluctuations in the international oil market will have a significant impact on China's national economy.
On the one hand, domestic oil imports account for about 30% of the total oil consumption in the country every year, and more than half of the imported oil comes from the Middle East. This shows that China is very dependent on oil in the Middle East.
In comparison, Europe is only about 40% dependent on the Middle East oil.
Compared with European countries that loudly anti-war, the pressure on domestic oil trade is obvious.
On the other hand, the upstream and downstream products of oil and related products are affected by their prices, and they will naturally produce price fluctuations of varying degrees in import and export trade. The securities market, as the most sensitive area of ​​the national economy, has already reflected this in advance.
As the situation in the Gulf continues to deteriorate, most overseas stock markets have fluctuated and declined. Although the Chinese stock market has not yet officially integrated with the world stock market, it has already had a certain degree of linkage, and some oil stocks have begun to bearish.
At present, the US military is on the verge of being on the verge of war. The only question is how resilience of Iraq's military power and how great is the US military's military power? If the US can end the military force against Iraq in three to five days like the Gulf War in 1991, and resolve Saddam in the short term and establish a pro-Western Iraqi regime, then the United States may use Iraq to develop the Middle East oil market, prompting oil production to soar, reduce costs and prices, and ultimately increase tax revenue through the decline in oil prices and the return of international capital to the United States. At that time, international crude oil prices will show a rapid rise and fall.
However, if the US-Iran war enters a protracted war and the war is delayed for a long time, it will trigger further turmoil in the Islamic world, and international crude oil prices will soar to more than 40 US dollars per barrel, while oil prices will continue to rise, which will lead to an increase in global production costs and have a serious impact on the world economy.
American corporate economic research institutions believe that if the war causes serious damage to oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the US economic growth rate may be only one percent this year. If the price of oil per barrel reaches 40 US dollars and lasts for about a month, the US economy will fall into recession and the world economy will suffer a heavy blow.
What many people are most worried about at present is that once the New Gulf War begins, the US economy will inevitably rise and fall with the changes in the war situation. As the trend of economic globalization becomes increasingly obvious, the Chinese economy is gradually integrating into the world economy, and some major events that occur in the world will inevitably affect China.
In the so-called globalization era, whether China can do things well depends not only on itself, but also on the entire world economy.
As China joins the WTO, the capital market will eventually be fully opened to the outside world. The fluctuations in China's stock market will become increasingly affected by the international environment, and the interactive relationship between the domestic stock market and surrounding markets will also be significantly strengthened. Therefore, if the Second Gulf War breaks out, it will have some direct or indirect impact on the Chinese stock market.
If the US-Iran War breaks out, China's direct interests in Iraq will be damaged, and oil, debts and some unfinished projects will be affected.
At the beginning, under the United Nations Oil-for-Food Agreement, Chinese companies contracted many projects in Iraq, and some projects were relatively large in scale. In Iraq, you can see China's light industrial products and durable consumer goods, such as VCD products, hardware and mineral products, trucks, Chinese clothing, etc.
Once the war breaks out, the completion of these projects will become a problem, a large amount of unfinished project costs will be wasted, and some completed projects will not be able to recover much. Once the war is over, the Iraqi puppet government under the control of the United States will come to power, and the Iraqi market will be completely under the control of the United States. Under the monopoly, it will be very difficult for Chinese companies to try to enter this market again.
However, some people have put forward different opinions, believing that the outbreak of the US-Iran war may be a good thing for China.
First, the war will intensify the chaos of Islamic countries. Although many Islamic governments are pro-US, the hostility and hatred of the Islamic people in most countries towards the United States will deepen due to this war, which will lead to social turmoil within these countries, which will lead to economic and political turmoil. Secondly, the United States and Britain insist on their own actions, regardless of the opinions of EU countries, also further differences between interest groups in Western countries. After the war, Americans and investors who expect to make a fortune in the United States will face more severe terrorist actions. Under the cover of this sense of crisis, how much funds are willing to return to the US market is indeed a question.
In comparison, China's safe internal and external environment and generous investment returns undoubtedly have greater appeal.
In fact, in recent years, with the continuous strengthening of China's comprehensive national strength and a relatively stable domestic environment, the Chinese market has been increasingly valued by international investors.
What everyone quarreled was nothing more than discussing whether the United States would really attack Iraq.
After hearing this, Fan Wubing felt bored. He admitted, "It is a foregone conclusion for the Americans to fight Iraq. Why discuss this issue again? Every time the United States launches a war, it is making money. Finally, there is another chance to start a war. Moreover, the battlefield is still in Iraq, where oil is everywhere. How can the American consortiums let go of such a good thing? The people and soldiers die, but the huge profits from the large consortium. In comparison, which one is more important and how to choose? Wouldn't it be seen at a glance?"
"But the Americans did not have the authorization of the Security Council." Some people opposed Fan Wubing's opinion.
Fan Wubing sneered, "This is a bit standard. This sentence has long been popular among the people. Americans will hit whoever they want, and Russians will hit me. As for us Chinese, hehe, whoever hits me, I will scold anyone. People are all rumored. Do Americans still need to care whether the Security Council approves what they do?"
As soon as Fan Wubing said this, all the people present had red and white on their faces. Obviously, everyone had heard this sentence, but they didn't expect anyone to say it in public.
"The information I received was that the Americans were about to start a war on the 20th. Now I have entered the stock market and futures market in full, waiting to make this war fortune!" Fan Wubing pointed out the date of the war without any concealment.
"What day is it today?!" Someone immediately asked each other from the side.
Obviously, if someone else says this or everyone will laugh at it, but the effect will be very different from Fan Wubing's mouth. Although everyone doesn't know how Fan Wubing got this news, it is certain that Mr. Fan usually speaks very accurately, and he predicted the 9.21 earthquake in Taiwan before.
The senior officials were also surprised. After all, the intelligence organization did not send such news. It was similar to the prediction of the date of the war. This was the most difficult. Even if everyone knew that war would break out in the near future, it would be very difficult to be able to accurately reach which day it would be.
Why can Fan Wubing so firmly judge that it would be on No. 20? This is something that everyone feels incredible.
The new No. 1 leader was also surprised. I wonder if Fan Wubing was joking or if there was indeed a channel of information, so I couldn't help but look at Fan Wubing to get a more positive answer.
Fan Wubing suddenly realized that everyone was looking at him and suddenly felt something was wrong, so he evaded, "Well, don't look at me, the information I mentioned was told by Duke Zhou, but Duke Zhou generally respects me very much and never shakes me. Everyone is obscene to it!"
When everyone heard Fan Wubing say that he had dreamed, they burst into laughter and shook their heads. They all said that Mr. Fan was brave and even joked in such an occasion.
Chapter completed!