Chapter 59 The Risk of Hot Money
Obviously, everyone is not very concerned about education reform. After all, basic education has been calling for reform, while higher education has not changed much. At most, some changes have occurred in enrollment. However, the dominant direction of the change is to expand the income of colleges and universities, which does not make people feel annoying. At least for teachers in these colleges and universities, this change is still gratifying.
The increase in college income means that the income of college teachers can increase accordingly, which is a good thing.
So now everyone in the small conference room started to have an equal conversation with Fan Wubing.
A teacher in the department looked at everyone and felt embarrassed to talk to the student in front of him, and took the initiative to say, "Let me ask a question first, student Fan Wubing, why do you attach great importance to the concept of hot money in your discussion? Do you think that hot money from international speculators is the main reason that shakes the stable economic development of Southeast Asian countries?"
This question is also a question that most teachers want to ask.
In recent years, under the influence of neoliberal theory and new macroeconomic theory advocated by IF, economic and technocrats in these countries, who are deeply influenced by mainstream economic theories, firmly believe that as long as we pay attention to and maintain the stability of a country's macroeconomic, attach importance to the balance between total supply and total demand, and adopt a demand management policy mixed with fiscal and monetary policy, the opening up of the financial sector and capital market will surely promote the inflow of a large amount of foreign capital, including shortage funds, and drive sustained, stable and rapid economic growth.
Therefore, Southeast Asian countries have successively implemented reforms in the economic field, lifting the control of foreign exchange inflows and outflows, relaxing the management of foreign direct investment, foreign credit activities, capital and monetary tools, and financial derivative products. While simplifying the original cumbersome foreign investment procedures, many legal statutes that prevent foreign investment from entering sensitive areas of local countries have been relaxed and even abolished, providing facilitation of investment and trade of foreign multinational corporations.
"The so-called hot money, generally speaking, can also be called hot money, or speculative short-term capital, which is short-term speculative funds that flow rapidly in the international financial market just to pursue the highest reward and the lowest risk. The speculative movement of international short-term funds is mainly to evade political risks, pursue the interests of exchange rate changes, price changes of important commodities or price changes of international securities, and hot money is a speculative behavior in pursuit of exchange rate changes." Fan Wubing thought for a while and said to everyone, "Although the general definition can be said like this, how to identify hot money and determine the number of hot money is not easy. Because hot money is not static, some long-term capital can also be converted into short-term capital under certain circumstances. Short-term capital can be converted into hot money. The key lies in whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to move from investment to speculation, from speculation to escape."
Fan Wubing looked at everyone and found that they were listening carefully. It seemed that in this era, everyone really didn't understand this concept. Although they were also studying economic and financial issues, there were some signs of hot money that had just begun and had not yet penetrated into China, which could not attract their full attention.
"I have some money." Fan Wubing waved his hand and said to everyone.
"Huh?" The teachers present were a little surprised and didn't know what Fan Wubing wanted to say.
Fan Wubing continued, "I also participated in the economic crisis in Japan back then, and the returns were very considerable. Hot money like me who entered the Japanese capital market with a temporary purpose of short-term arbitrage is the category of hot money."
"Did you really experience the Japanese economic crisis back then? How big were you at that time? Did you make a lot of profit?" someone immediately asked with concern.
"It makes a lot of profits. Within one month, through financial leverage, you can make more than ten times the principal amount, which is very easy. My registered capital in Fan's Investment Group in Shanghai has a registered capital of tens of billions of US dollars, and most of the funds here are earned from Japan." Fan Wubing did not answer the first two questions, but only answered the last question.
"You are the boss of Fan Investment Group?! It is the Fan Investment Group that is building two 33-story buildings?!" Someone asked immediately, obviously they were paying attention to this international capital that quietly appeared on the beach.
"It's like a fake one." Fan Wubing shrugged and replied.
At this time, Fan Wubing can no longer keep a low profile. He needs to enter the academic community and exert his influence so that he can make his own powerful voice to the entire society.
The academic community is a very sensitive place. Experts and scholars who are keen on talking big in front of various media are obviously not willing to be lonely. As for whether the remarks they make can be found, whether they can find flowers, bricks or boiled water, they have to be viewed according to their personal style.
But overall, the academic community will never be noble, but can be corroded through money, and it is the most easily corroded part.
In addition to the generation of countless great people, its own academic atmosphere can also breed more academic scammers.
In countless historical periods from ancient times to the present, the academic community has been exploited. For example, Qin Shihuang used the Legalist Han Fei theory to build momentum for his expansion, Emperor Wu of Han respected Confucianism and relied on Dong Zhongshu, Li Tang started his career and respected Laozi, the ancestor of Taoism, and after the Qing Dynasty entered the pass, countless scholars promoted their orthodoxism.
As for endorsement of the forces behind them in the economic field, many people are willing to do it. Whether they are praised or scolded, as long as they make their voices, there will always be supporters, and then their goal will be achieved, and the conflict of interests can make the academic community more prosperous.
Fan Wubing doesn't mind trying to win over some people in the academic community. Even if it is useless now, when it is needed, this is a surprise weapon that can be used.
As for the government, Fan Wubing believes that there are too few people who understand the economy. Formulating corresponding policies, especially economic policies, basically requires relevant experts and scholars to offer suggestions for them. Therefore, it is very beneficial to attracting a considerable number of scholars.
However, as a result, the problem of hot money faded, and everyone's attention was focused on Fan Wubing himself.
After talking all the time, Fan Wubing enthusiastically invited the teachers, "If you are interested, why not visit our company. By the way, let's discuss in depth how the international hot money snipers Japan encountered before the outbreak of the economic crisis?"
Of course, everyone will not have any objections. They are engaged in economic research. There is no harm in having such an opportunity to visit a large company, let alone the one who invites them is a student of a mysterious origin?
In fact, many people here have studied the problem of economic overheating. Since Deng Gong’s southern tour last year, China’s economy has entered a period of rapid growth again. It can be said that tens of thousands of horses are galloping, mud and sand are all over the place, and the scene is mixed.
What is good is that the economy is showing a comprehensive recovery trend. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national construction projects under construction in 1991 were about 900 billion yuan, and by 1992 it expanded to 2 trillion yuan. By the first five months of this year, national fixed asset investment increased by 70% based on the previous year, which is an unprecedented figure.
What is worrying is that the rapid growth of investment is induced a series of related effects. The national total price index of means of production has risen by more than 40%, and the financial order has become a little disordered. Underground money houses are particularly active, private capital lending interest rates are getting higher and higher, and official interest rates are ineffective. If those with skills can borrow money from banks, they can redeem usury at 20% or even 30% interest rates.
It is also in this context that the central government is determined to deal with the Shen Taifu incident seriously. In the eyes of leaders, if the existence of Shen-style financing is condoned, then financial controls are simply nowhere to be discussed.
However, Fan Wubing also knew clearly that although the domestic economy was a bit overheated, the demand brewed was very strong because the economy was in a low point for a long time. Only when the current openness was available, investment into the domestic market could not stir up the deep water. Now, domestic capital basically has high returns as long as it is invested in, and there is no need to work hard to get in and out.
Therefore, the targets pursued by international hot money are still those Southeast Asian countries that are highly open but have not yet built a complete economic framework.
For them, Fan Wubing had a mentality of watching the fun. Whether in Southeast Asia or Hong Kong, Fan Wubing didn't mind making a fortune there. Although Soros and others had a large scale of funds, as large as 10 billion US dollars, if Fan Wubing concentrated his energy, he would not be his opponent if he tied up dozens of Soros together.
But there are some problems in this. Fan Wubing can let go of Southeast Asian countries, but in Hong Kong, unless he fights with Soros, the central government will definitely not let him make money through his own nature.
However, this kind of thing is done with the flow. It is not impossible to create a few more clones, build a few overseas bag companies, and hire some traders to operate it. After all, it is a capital feast, and it is indeed a bit unsatisfactory to participate if you don’t contribute to the fire.
After the place scattered, Fan Wubing left the small conference room, and the teachers were still chatting and discussing.
"Wujian--" Someone was calling Fan Wujian's name again.
Fan Wubing looked back and saw that it was Tong Xiaoyun waiting for him.
The two of them haven't met for a while. This semester, Tong Xiaoyun and the others have been sketching in other places, while Fan Wubing has been in Beijing for a long time and has almost no chance of getting along.
Chapter completed!