Chapter 25 The Great Joy that Happened in the Future
Food is the most important thing for the people.
Therefore, Naohide, Okubo and others have discussed in detail the issue of rising grain prices in Fuso.
As the natural disaster eases, it is possible for Fuso's grain production to recover. But the good news is that after Fuso's trade, the high export prices of raw silk, tea, and other specialties will lead to a significant reduction in grain planting area. Therefore, this
Food prices cannot go down.
In fact, in Zhixiu's original world, the rise in food prices would continue for more than ten years starting from 1856, and would accelerate again from 1878 to 1880.
There are no solutions. One is to purchase grain from overseas, the other is to find ways to increase Fusang grain production, and the third is to reduce grain consumption.
When purchasing grain from overseas, let’s not talk about the issue of whether you have money or not. Shipbuilding and obtaining permission to go to sea for trade are two huge difficulties. As for thinking about Westerners transporting grain to Fusang to rescue the distressed people, that’s too much.
I have my own huge profit-making business, and I am not willing to do this kind of low-profit business.
As for the latter two methods, they are both related to Hakodate:
In terms of land reclamation, the largest area of land developed by Fuso is in the Northland; reducing food consumption depends on oil and fat, and the fishery in Ezo is ranked first in Fuso.
What's frustrating is that even though Naohide has been talking for a long time, everyone here is still hesitant - no way, prices have gone up since Hakodate opened trade to Westerners on June 2 this year, but how much?
I forgot to hold back my hand when I had enough time behind me, and I wanted to turn back with no way in front of me.
We have not yet reached the critical moment of starving to death. If this thing really happens, we will not know how painful it is. Therefore, it is no wonder that everyone does not believe it. In fact, even Okubo is half-convinced, but for such a big event, "I would rather believe that it exists than believe it.
"Nothing", let's just believe it.
After the silence, the topic had to turn back to enriching the country and strengthening the army.
The "rich country" proposed by Heishiro Yokoi in "Three Essays on the State" can actually be called a "rich country by trading", which means getting rich through industry and commerce.
Speaking of which, this topic is quite embarrassing. The shogunate was based on Zhu Xi's Confucianism, and the theory of the futility of doing business was deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Besides, "merchants are a lowly profession", and it is still a shogunate decree that samurai are not allowed to do business.
However, there are examples such as Hizen, Satsuma, Choshu, Tosa, etc. - these powerful feudal lords all became rich due to business. Westerners reminded them from outside that the people in the administrative office had to understand overseas information, and naturally they knew that "trade has great benefits".
But the problem is, there are risks in doing business. This business can make you rich or poor. Who can guarantee that you will make a profit without losing money!
Just show off!
In his original world, from the time when the shogunate opened trade with foreign countries in 1859 to the bloodless opening of Edo in 1868, the economy was really not very good, so he finally fell out of office in despair.
But let alone the second brother, the eldest brother did not do well at the beginning of the reform government.
The pros and cons of this have been studied by countless future generations, and there are many insights. Of course, these can be discussed:
First of all, we need to reveal the truth, that is, what the officials of the reform government did in the early days was really bad, and they tortured Fusang to death. It was not until the 1880s that these bureaucrats came to their senses, and then Fusang's economy began to develop rapidly.
Of course, Naoxiu cannot talk about things that have never happened as examples, so he still uses logical conjectures in his speeches.
If there is no stability without agriculture, let’s start with agriculture.
As for Fusang Agriculture, the secret to success is to clarify land rights, establish agricultural teams and encourage the promotion of technology.
Yes, agriculture developed well after the Restoration:
Before 1880, the agricultural output value of Fuso fluctuated up and down, but the comprehensive annual growth rate reached about 1.7%; in the more than two decades after 1880, the annual growth rate was about 1.1%.
But the role of the government in it is quite funny, there are right and wrong, and the faults may outweigh the merits.
What did these guys do?
Blindly introduce improved breeds and promote machinery and Western-style cattle and sheep grazing methods.
To give a few examples, the introduction of precious cattle breeds almost caused Wagyu to become extinct at the hands of the Restoration officials, and the blind promotion of potatoes, corn, and sorghum led to a decline in total grain output. Large farm machinery was not suitable.
Western-style grazing methods are not adapted to the extensive small fields.
Of course, the reform government was still stronger than the shogunate. At least the personal confinement was much looser, and the promotion of agricultural science was much more vigorous and organized - especially after 1881.
However, in the more than ten years since the Restoration began, the main achievements in agricultural development were still due to the enthusiasm of the farmers themselves. After the land tax reform in 1873, farmers' enthusiasm for farming increased. This was the main reason.
What’s deceiving is that during this period, the government imposed extortionate taxes and serious land annexation, and the “landlord kingdom” headed by the royal family began to take shape. As of 1883, the proportion of land cultivated by tenants was 36%, and the proportion of their population was 60%.
This shows that a large number of homesteaders went bankrupt and fell into poverty.
Such haphazard practices did little to improve the lives of the peasants, and the people began to miss their former lords and shogunate, so rebellions occurred one after another.
After talking about agriculture, let’s talk about industry.
The development of Fuso industry still relies mainly on the private sector. What the government can do is to "improve basic measures, formulate enlightened policies, promote compulsory education and provide industrial support and subsidies."
The three major slogans of the Restoration were to enrich the country and strengthen the army, to promote industrialization and civilization, but the colonial industry led by the government was a bad thing - when the shogunate and the daimyo fell, the foundation left behind was mainly government-run mines and ordnance manufacturing plants.
.But like their predecessors, the reform government did not accomplish anything earth-shattering before 1881. Agriculture still accounted for the vast majority of the economy, and the proportion did not increase much at all.
In light industry, there were only three Western-style textile factories ten years after the Restoration—including the original one owned by the Shimazu family in Satsuma.
In heavy industry, shipbuilding and machinery manufacturing, the Kobe Iron Works run by Westerners stood out. It began building iron ships in the early 1880s, and its technical level was beyond the reach of those government-run shipyards. What the reform government could use was Nagasaki, which was organized by the shogunate.
, the three major ironworks of Yokohama and Yokosuka.
Mining has developed well, but this is all due to the new and old chaebols updating their technology and machinery based on the old foundation of the shogunate.
Steelmaking is even more tragic. The first large-scale steel plant, Yawata Steel Works, was prepared in 1891 and started production in 1901. In 1900, Fuso's steel output was about 50,000 tons, while during the same period, England and Japan each had 4.98 million people.
tons and 10.35 million tons - I really don’t know where to start talking about the colonial industry in the early days of the Reform.
As for railways, as of 1880, the total length of all Fuso railways was less than 160 kilometers.
A lot of ships were bought, but the official operation continued to lose money, so in 1875 they were all transferred to Mitsubishi Steamship Co., Ltd. of Yataro Iwasaki at a low price. From then on, Iwasaki began to dominate the shipping industry off the coast of Fuso.
A large number of demonstration enterprises - 52 government-run model factories - were established. Although they popularized technology and cultivated talents, most of them were transferred to individuals due to continuous losses. Of course, the original banner was "demonstration", but it was not
Not too disgraced either.
These enterprises include the famous Kagoshima Textile Works, Shinmachi Textile Works, Senju Textile Works, Tomioka Silk Reeling Works, Kamaishi Iron Works, Osaka Artillery Factory, Naito Shinjuku Proving Ground and Mita Agricultural Experimental Works, etc.
Although everything is difficult at the beginning, it cannot be justified that the government-run model factory will be difficult from the beginning to the end.
Compared with government-owned enterprises, excluding the mining and shipping industries of old and new chaebols, private enterprises appear to be full of vitality - even though they receive less or no support:
Shiseido, a Seiko watch store and cosmetics company founded in the 1870s and 1980s, has gained momentum since its establishment, and has grown rapidly since then;
Although the trade volume of handmade shell buttons was small, by 1896 the export volume had grown to 175,000 yuan, occupying most of the international market;
The gold and silver foil industry in Hokuriku Kanazawa was suppressed during the shogunate period because Edo and Kyoto had special manufacturing privileges. After the Restoration, privilege restrictions no longer existed, so it flourished and accounted for nearly 90% of the world market in 1918;
Between 1877 and 1900, Fuso's food processing and textile industries contributed 40% and 35% respectively to the growth of manufacturing, and the two combined accounted for 75%. That is to say, in the late 19th century, Fuso's industry
Three-quarters of the growth relies on the development of light industry—and the main force is private enterprises.
Take the silk reeling industry as an example. Because they could not afford expensive imported machinery, the private sector initially struggled with simple factories, wooden machines and hydraulic power. In 1870, seat reeling machines were introduced. In 1872, large-scale counterfeiting began. In 1876, the private silk industry
Great development, raw silk output surpassed that of China in 1909.
1886-1990 was the first industrial upsurge of Fuso in modern times, in which private enterprises were the main force.
Of course, the reform government also made a great contribution, which was reflected in improving basic measures, formulating enlightened policies, promoting compulsory education, and providing industrial support and subsidies.
But compared with the contribution, there are many black spots. Take Fuso's "compulsory education" as an example. The majority of the funding still comes from the public - it is not allocated from taxes, but is directly allocated to residents and student families near the school.
.Among the government financial expenditures from 1869 to 1877, military expenditures accounted for 55.2%, while education expenditures accounted for an insane 0.4%!
It was not until the end of the 19th century that Fuso began to implement "free primary compulsory education" after robbing China. Of course, at that time, this free policy was not implemented early in other countries in the world: it was fully implemented in England in 1891
Although the Mi people started in 1834, it was not until 1919 that the last state of Alabama began to implement it; France was earlier, and it was fully implemented in 1879.
Take another example, regarding patent law.
In 1871, Fuso promulgated the "Simple Rules for Monopoly", but it was abolished the second year after its implementation. The reason was that it was unenforceable due to the rampant power.
Fourteen years later, in 1885, the "Patent Regulations" were promulgated, the Patent Office was established, and the Fuso patent system truly began to be established. The relevant laws and regulations in other countries were established in 1624 in England, 1790 in the United States, and 1790 in France.
1791, Germany 1877 - the restoration of comprehensive westernization, just listen to this, whoever believes it will be stupid.
"To make the country rich and have a strong army, to colonize industries, and to be civilized and enlightened", what the early reform government could have a clear conscience was a "strong army" - the so-called "wise and powerful, and done well enough" sounds as uncomfortable as swallowing a fly.
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On the contrary, "ignoring people's livelihood and environmental pollution, being arbitrary, bureaucrats deeply colluding with businessmen, disparity between rich and poor, slow progress in the rule of law, ignorant of the people, militarism, extravagance and corruption", this is certainly not a shameful accusation.
The early Fuso government was so proud of its achievements that it ignored the right path of modern industrialization, which focused on the development of agriculture and light industry, and messed around in the field of heavy industry and resorted to militarism.
Saigo Takakunaga once commented on the industrial policy of the early reform government, “If you rush forward because you are envious of the strength of other countries, without considering the limitations of your own strength, you will eventually be exhausted and achieve nothing. (Please) you must give up the construction of railways immediately and devote yourself to it.
Strengthen military strength."
Of course, his last sentence is very problematic, but what he said before is to the point!
No wonder after Masayoshi Matsukata took charge of Fuso's finances in 1881, he admitted in his capacity as Minister of Finance, "In the past, the government was sometimes too aggressive. In the future, it will take more into account the actual situation of Fuso. On the basis of doing what is within our capabilities, economic laws must be in line with reality."
.”
In fact, there are still many experiences and lessons learned from Fuso’s modernization.
But Naohide himself was frothing at the mouth, and the boring content that could hide the beginning and the end made most of the listeners drowsy. His wife Eiko saw that the night was getting late, so she stepped forward and asked everyone to go home.
"If you pass this village, there won't be this store! If you don't listen, it will be a loss." Naohsiu had to give up in frustration.
These contents were all discussed by him and Oguri Tadjun, the envoy of the commission, this year, and it was from this that he decided that the shogunate was going to launch a plan to enrich the country and strengthen the army.
Speaking of which, since the shogunate launched the Ansei Reform in the seventh year of Kayei (1854), the cause of enriching the country has really taken a big step forward - the Konaruyama Iron Works, the Yokohama Iron Works, the Yushima Fortress,
There are only a few modern industries such as Ishikawajima Shipyard, but what use are they?
But the problem is that the shogunate has been doing bad things for a long time, is it still too late?
Hey, "if your father or mother gets married, you have to take care of yourself." This Northland is still a mess, so how can you have the energy to take care of so many things!
Chapter completed!