As the patriarch of the Matsudaira family, Naohide has a rich family and an official position - he was promoted from the fifth position to Anfang Shu, but he has to participate in the shogunate affairs. Now he is still an old cat sniffing salted fish, smelling fragrance, smelling fragrance

(Don’t think about it) Ah.

Therefore, he can only achieve his goals by manipulating or instigating others.

But "One who does not plan for the overall situation is not enough to plan for a region." How Fusang's overall situation has evolved now must be clarified first.

According to the analysis of everyone in the north, the current turmoil in the second year of Bunkyu (1862) can be said to be caused by the shogunate itself, or it can be said that the situation is such that it is difficult to reverse the general trend.

To say that the shogunate brought it upon itself is due to its improper response:

Although the Tokugawa clan's external weakness had aroused dissatisfaction among the people and many princes since the first visit of the Kurofune in the sixth year of Kayei (1853), it was not until June of the fifth year of Ansei (1858) that this dissatisfaction

It's more like complaining, "Why don't you listen to me?"

To be honest, this kind of complaint is just a slap in the face, and I don’t dare and will not directly confront the authority of the shogunate. Of course, Qi Zhao, the Banner of the Banishers, complained in person, but he just finished complaining at the time, even if he did something

Small actions are within the scope of ordinary political disputes.

But in June of that year, Fuso and Miren signed a formal trade agreement, which escalated the fight.

In fact, it was signed as soon as it was signed. At that time, Fuso as a whole did not have a deep understanding of the consequences of opening the port. They were all assuming, just what-ifs.

But the shogunate leader at that time, "Elder Boss" Ii, absolutely shouldn't have gone alone. At least you can say hello to everyone, and if you can get along with it, maybe the situation will be much easier in the future.

But this is also a matter of hindsight. Qi Zhao has a stubborn temper and will not shed tears until he sees the coffin. He may even be more motivated after seeing the coffin, so there is probably no use in discussing it.

But most of the secrets of governance lie in clever compromises. The old man Jing Yi took the risk to set up a dining table. Well, Fuso has a meal-sharing system anyway. If you set up mine, then I--I'll forget it.

At that time, Jing Yi punished Qi Zhao and his family, and Qi Zhao and others tolerated it for the time being. Originally, the matter could have ended here, and then "big things were reduced to small things, and small things were reduced to small things." However, "I am not afraid that there will be no good things, but I am afraid that there will be no good people."

Although it was not a big deal, the small imperial court in Kyoto raised the alarm when they received the Wuwu secret edict in August of that year.

It stands to reason that if Jing Yi is a stable and mature person, then he can just laugh it off - "Don't use unplanned tactics to end your life." You always tell others this, but why do you forget it when it's your turn?

How about saying, "He who knows others is wise, and he who knows himself is wise." Self-knowledge, self-control, and God-given talents exist, but they are rare. Most of them have to be polished slowly.

In fact, Naoki Ii used to be a wealthy and idle man - this is what he said himself. It was not until the third year of Honghua (1846) that Naomi, the head of the Hikone family at that time, Naomi's brother Naomei died, and he was established as the crown prince. In the third year of Kayei

(1850) Zhiliang passed away, and Zhibi succeeded to the position of head of the family.

The Ii family was a daimyo before the establishment of the Tokugawa shogunate. It has always been called "the gendai among gendai" and is regarded as the first gendai daimyo. Even among the four gendai families "Ii, Sakai, Doi, and Hota",

That's also something that stands out from the crowd.

Take the "eldest brother", who is the highest-ranking official in the shogunate, for example. Before Naobi, six of the eleven elders were from the Ii family, and the first and the last four were all from the Ii family -

-What is arrogance? This is arrogance.

Let’s give an example.

Kunitomo Ikansai (born and died 1778-1840) was the master craftsman who was as famous as Iwahashi Zenbei. This man made Fuso's first practical air gun, reflective astronomical telescope, and jade lamp (lower water and upper oil).

lamp), a pen (a simple water brush), a powerful crossbow, a magic mirror (a mirror whose reflection is the pattern on the back of the bronze mirror), and the "machima sight telescope" (rangefinder)

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In the eighth year of Bunka (1811), the Hikone Domain Ii family requested Kunitomo Village to manufacture 200 shogunate jade tubes (cannons). However, the village elders believed that the order did not have the approval of the shogunate, so the work was not started. This incident angered the Hikone Domain.

All orders with Kunitomo Blacksmithing were cancelled. Since it is located within the jurisdiction of Hikone Domain, this conflict is undoubtedly an unprecedented crisis for Kunitomo Village.

As a forging place under the direct control of the shogunate, Kunitomo Village took the lawsuit to Edo in order to continue to survive. But in the 14th year of Bunka (1817), the matter ended with Kunitomo Village being punished for two years.

From then on, Kunitomo Village failed to recover and was basically considered abandoned - the Ii family refused to give up and continued to find trouble.

The Jingyi family has been buying weapons for the military and the country privately in a big way, but nothing happened after it was exposed. No one believes it even if they say it!

The family tradition is like this, and Jing Yi is the leader who became a monk halfway, so the stubbornness behind it can be explained.

The fifth year of Anzheng (

From September 1858) to August of the sixth year of Anzheng, he took the lead in launching the Wuwu Disaster, starting from the powerful anti-barbarian faction of the Qi Zhao family to the imperial ministers, and then expanded to the founding faction and the mediator faction, almost wiping out all political opponents.

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Later, Ii regretted it a little and began to repair relations with all parties. However, before the sweet dates were delivered, in March of the third year of Ansei (1860), Ii was stabbed to death by various rogues, mainly from Mito.

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After his death, the small court immediately changed the Yuan Dynasty, and "Anzheng" was changed to "Bunjiu". It was said that it was because of the fire in Edo Castle and other events, and it was taken from the "Book of the Later Han Dynasty? Ma Rong Biography" "The descendants of hundreds of billions of people will last for thousands of years."

"The auspicious sentence is to pray for the mercy and protection of heaven and the gods, but who doesn't know that this is the celebration of the royal family and the ministers, "This scourge of Jingyi is dead, and the future will be better!"

But all good things are hard to come by. Jing Yi is dead, but the one who appears is not the Qi Zhao family who respects the king - the reconciliation faction has made a comeback. You said this was the fault.

However, Naohide and others said that "the shogunate brought it upon itself because of its improper response." Apart from Ii's fault, the conciliator could not escape.

Reconciliation is just about trying to get the best of both sides, but if you don't do it well, it will turn into "taking advantage of both sides."

Kuze, Ando and other veterans can't be said to have no strength - they can't work for two years without strength, but the problem is that their ability is not enough.

Beginning in June of the sixth year of Ansei (July 1859), Nagasaki, Kanagawa (Yokohama), and Hakodate opened their ports to the outside world. Then prices skyrocketed and people were in dire straits.

As for Wanyan Minting (1860) and the issuance of four copper coins per coin (1861), these two hands only focused on saving the shogunate itself, which completely ruined their character. Yes, they provided some financial subsidies to various families, but they were "a drop in the bucket".

It’s hard to save the salary.” Moreover, the bulk of the money was not taken away by Edo.

The Fifth Order of Edo (1860), the laborious efforts to unify purchasing and marketing, did not fundamentally solve the problem of shortages of goods and rising prices.

So, if you can't do it, don't do it. It can be said that the resignation of Kuze, Ando and his family is expected by the public.

In the end, the two fell into a situation where almost everyone called for a fight in the second year of Bunkyu (1862) - the powerful anti-barbarian faction of Qi Zhao's group, the hard-line Samu faction behind Ii, the small imperial court in Kyoto, the powerful vassal who fished in troubled waters and the people who hoped to save themselves.

The princes and bannermen all felt dissatisfied.

But Naohide also thought that this is not entirely the fault of the shogunate. The situation is like this, and it is difficult to go against the general trend:

This agricultural country has no effective control measures for foreign trade. The large influx of industrial products, even primary industrial products, and the waving of big scissors will make even gods kneel down when they should, let alone Kuze and Ando.

Waiting for mortals.

I can't beat it, I can't bear it, this coward crime, Fusang has only tasted a few mouthfuls, and the days ahead are still long.

There is a voice in the North, led by Hori Toshihi and Egawa Hidetoshi. These people know that the combination of public and military forces is nonsense, so they demand "to use all the troops in the North to serve the shogunate." At first, the momentum was quite huge.

But this can be pulled down!

By the end of 1861, Hakodate had over 130,000 citizens under its control. Although the proportion of young and middle-aged people was quite high due to the large number of immigrants, it could recruit 10,000 horses. With sharp weapons and good welfare, it was really possible to sweep Fuso.

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But let’s not talk about the difficulty of living in the North. Is this a matter of having more soldiers and fewer soldiers?

Since Naohide's chaos, the shogunate's strength has been several times stronger than before, but it doesn't dare to use force to overwhelm its opponents. If this economic problem is not solved, even if it wins at first, there will still be opposition everywhere, which is completely useless.

Moreover, the aspirations of the people's hearts may sound hollow, but they are actually very powerful. Unless they are overthrown once they are satisfied, otherwise, if they want to change the world, they have to admit it - most people think this should be the case, so don't do it against them. At the very least,

Don't do it openly, otherwise it will be a thankless task.

Before Naoxiu set out at the beginning of this year, he was afraid that if something happened to him without his absence, the leaderless Northland would go on a rampage, so he had already made plans.

So Hori Toshi and Hidetoshi were suppressed at that time, and the reason lies in the deduction of the Zanhua staff:

The Northland calculates its strength based on 1:2, that is, the 1 of the Northland and its allies can equal the 2 of others.

Of course, many people are dissatisfied and think that it is too small. Even if it cannot be 1:10, then 1:5 is not an exaggeration. However, Naohide and others believe that the overall strength cannot be calculated in this way. The population of the Northland does not exceed 400,000, so the production capacity and system

It is too fragile and does not provide enough support to allies, so 1:2 is more reasonable - as for when it exceeds 400,000, let's wait until then.

Based on this ratio, the local government has a three-step plan.

Only when the population of Northland and its hard-core allies accounts for one-seventh of the population, that is, four million, can Northland come out publicly at this time, and then it can point fingers, and people will naturally listen and take seriously what they say.

;

As for wanting to influence the situation, the requirements are quite high. Fuso people

The mouth is upwards of 26 million, and there must be at least 7 million, which is a quarter. Only then can we start to arm-wrestle with all opponents head-on - one is worth two, or a quarter is half, I guess.

The other quarter dare not move, that is half and half, there is nothing to be afraid of;

But if you want to complete the ultimate secret, that is, "No one in the world dares to disobey the command," you must have at least three-thirds of the world's strength, that is, the combined allied forces must have a population of at least nine million.

After this conclusion came out, everyone burst into laughter at the time:

Although we are talking about business, this is so funny, seven million, nine million, isn't this the strength of the Northland plus the shogunate's royal leaders!

According to the height of Fuso, the shogunate's royal domain is about 6.8 million koku, of which 2.6 million koku is the territory of retainers and banners; while the shogunate has about 2.6 million koku, the genealogical daimyo accounts for more than 6.7 million koku, and the rest of the outside daimyo is about 1,000 koku.

Thousands of stones.

No matter how you calculate it, it turns out that Hori Toshihi and Egawa Hidetoshi were right - because "all the troops in the Northern Territory were used to serve the shogunate". After that, the combined population of the Northern Territory and the shogunate could reach the threshold of 7 million. If they win over more

Hardcore, that 9 million is very easy.

Based on the deduction, Naohide actually said that "working on the shogunate" was not feasible. Wouldn't it be funny to be slapped in the face on the spot?

At that time, Naohide himself was also happy. After wiping his tears, he explained:

If the leader of the shogunate could use his arms and fingers, why would we be talking about being diligent in the shogunate today?

Not to mention the fact that the Hakodate Shrine has its own way of doing things, there were 43 cases of Fuso Ichiku in Bunkyunen (1860). According to Hokki's statistics, there were more than 50 cases in the first year of Manen.

Although most of them are not in the shogunate's territory, it's not enough to have just a few and a half. Of the 7 million imperial officials, are there not even half of them who are willing to follow the shogunate, or even counting those who don't object?
To be continued...