Mission is very important. ╰: ╰Piao Astronomy Network ╰彩 ╰彩 ╰彩

During the voyage back to the capital, Yang Shaozong spent three hours reading Chen Xihua's annual economic research report in detail. Overall, he didn't think there was anything that needed to be repeated. The report was jointly compiled by his mentor Professor Yang Xiaokai and Chen Xihua, Fan Gang and Xiao Aihua. Qizhou Economic Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Qizhou University, Peking University Research Center, and other national statistical institutions all participated in the related work.

There is no problem with the data and conclusions.

What else do you need to say?

On the plane, Yang Shaozong had been thinking about this issue.

Back in the capital, Premier Rong took the time to talk to him alone for twenty minutes and explained the situation roughly. The Politburo was not dissatisfied with Chen Xihua's reporting work, but hoped that Yang Shaozong would come out to say something more useful.

For politicians, the data Chen Xihua said is a bit too broad, including the previous two directors of the National Research Center.

Premier Rong's meaning will not talk about the logic of data and economics for the time being. It doesn't matter if it is simpler, more straightforward, and more in-depth, it doesn't matter if it's bold.

After talking for the past twenty minutes, Yang Shaozong generally understood what Premier Rong meant. It was nothing more than that his tour was reported in China. Everyone thought that he should also follow this model to speak more carefully for the country and point out a path for the development of China's national economy.

This is quite nonsense.

Because Yang Shaozong was actually not responsible during his entire Asian tour speech, what he said was definitely right, and it has important reference significance for several countries, but it is very difficult to implement it in detail.

On the other hand, China's economic reform is very difficult.

Anyway, Yang Shaozong had a general understanding in his heart.

After two days of preparation, Yang Shaozong brought Chen Xihua's report back into the Zhongnanhai Conference Hall. It was 8 pm, and the members of the Politburo arrived at the venue ten minutes in advance.

Yang Shaozong's position was on the top podium in the front row of the venue, which was a bit like the judge's seat in the court. Others were seated more than him, and they were all sitting, only he was standing.

There is no way, here are all members of the Politburo. If you don’t stand, can you still sit like others?

The list of members of the Politburo of this term is a bit so special. Cheng from Songzhou did not enter, with only 21 members and two additional members. Cheng originally became an additional member in 1994, but suddenly became a rehabilitation due to illness at the end of 1997.

The reason is very simple, someone complained in Qizhou.

Cheng’s problem has always been well known. His wife’s two younger brothers, namely Cheng’s two brothers, were working in real estate in Songzhou. These two people were doing very crazy and led a large number of local "businessmen" in Songzhou.

These people gathered together. In addition to Zhongqi Land, Qizhou Land is a direct army of Zhongqi Group. They are also quite afraid of other real estate companies, including CITIC, Vanke, China Overseas, China Merchants Group, and OCT, who can't even get a stable territory in Songzhou, as small real estate developers will be in disarray.

Due to this special competition, many companies can only use bribes, joint stocks and other means, and the other party can occupy 20% of the shares in the project without paying money.

In 1997, Yang Shaozong had actually negotiated with Cheng through Kan Zhidong, hoping that Cheng would take charge, but the other party found out that he was crazy about the development of Zhongqi Department in Songzhou and tried every means to make things difficult for Cheng to rely on his own Politburo member, and seemed to turn a blind eye.

You're fucking nonsense.

At that time, Yang Shaozong killed Yuanhua behind his back and was still fiddling with the bad debts of the Provincial Party Committee and the Department of Transportation of the Provincial Department of Guizhou Province. He planned to do it in Guizhou Province since 1994, and invested 600 million yuan to test the highway first, but he was swallowed half of it.

You probably really think that Yang Shaozong is easy to bully?

Yang Shaozong endured it. He just thought that the 600 million yuan was wasted, and temporarily terminated other investment plans in Guizhou, secretly letting people tinker with information.

In Songzhou, he was holding a lot of things in his hands.

He didn't come forward, but he asked Song Fangzhou from Fuqi Group to come forward and joined forces with more than 100 bosses, including real estate and various fields. On the surface, they had little to do with the Zhongqi Group. Through his contacts, he sent the letter to Premier Rong, Standing Committee Member Liu and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in one go.

During the Yuanhua case, Standing Committee Member Liu knew very well that his children were involved in the case. At that time, it was all settled by Yang Shaozong and Chi Lili, so this favor must be given.

Not to mention Premier Rong, they were all old subordinates. They had high hopes, but who knew that these mistakes would happen, so they went to Songzhou to investigate the case himself, and they let Cheng go to the hospital for a break in less than a month.

After this matter was completed, Wang Yong, the CEO of China International Trust and Investment Company, sent a text message to Yang Shaozong, three words - you are cruel enough!

Yang Shaozong replied with a text message, two words - slap.

Therefore, there are only 21 members and two additional members left in this term, but there are still many members who understand the economy here.

When Yang Shaozong walked in, several members stood up and shook hands with him and said a few polite words. Compared to Chen Xihua, Yang Shaozong's identity was obviously a little more special.

The environment in the venue was very serious and depressing. All the members arrived, and everyone was sitting here waiting for you, Yang Shaozong, to give a truly valuable report.

Yang Shaozong walked to his platform and spread out the stack of reports in his hand. Although the data and conclusions in it had been discussed by Chen Xihua, he still talked about it again.

Yang Shaozong took a quick look and began to read from the previous article. He roughly explained the domestic economic situation in the entire 1998. Then he put the report aside and put it aside for the time being.

He knew that he continued to say that this report had no big meaning.

He looked up at all the committee members, feeling that there was no need to be too depressed, and he was quite suffocating.

He supported the tabletop of the podium with a casual elbow, and thought for a little, saying: "From this data, the domestic economy has not been impacted by the financial crisis in the past two years. This is mainly due to two reasons. First, our economic structure is relatively closed, self-sufficiency, and the financial industry is not open, and the possibility of being affected by external shocks is very small. Second, we have relatively few exports to Southeast Asia. Our main exporter is the United States, and our main competitor is Southeast Asia. In March 1997, I talked to Prime Minister Rong in the capital about the possibility of a crisis in Southeast Asia. At that time, at that time, I talked to Premier Rong in the capital.

So, I have asked Zhongqi Investment Bank to significantly short all sovereign currencies in Southeast Asia, because I insist on one point of view, that is, the Southeast Asian crisis is a godsend opportunity for our China. If Southeast Asia does not collapse, the speed of international capital flowing into China will not accelerate. Therefore, we want to short Southeast Asia. We not only short, but we also set up an international hedge fund in the Cayman Islands to attack Southeast Asia. Overall, Zhongqi Investment Bank and related investment companies made about 140 billion US dollars during the crisis, which is equivalent to our country's entire foreign exchange reserves."

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of the members were excited and trembled.

As for Yang Shaozong, he always has a way to make the audience shine.

He paused for a moment.

Now no one cares what attitude he is from and the national leaders report the research report.

Report... Let me first report where did the 140 billion US dollars come from?

Yang Shaozong waited for a while, and after the members had passed the shock at the beginning, he continued: "We started by directly shorting the exchange rate and stock index of our opponent's sovereign currency, and basically made more than 40 billion US dollars. At that time, I made a prediction with Hu Zuming, chief analyst of investment banking. As long as South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia are broken into the exchange rate within our expectations, all countries will be greatly impacted. Central banks of various countries can only sell their yellow reserves for US dollars. Then, gold will definitely fall. Therefore, in September 1996, I suggested selling a gold reserve in advance to increase my foreign exchange reserves. The international gold price was US$320 per ounce at the end of September 1996, and it was already

The psychological price of $260 was broken. At this time, we thought that the Southeast Asian financial crisis was approaching the lowest point, so we bought gold again. By January 1999, when gold returned to the price of $290, we made a difference of $10 billion in the gold business. Including short selling in the oil and commodity fields, the returns in this area were also very rich. Another large profit point was the short selling on the Nikkei index and the Japanese yen exchange rate, and finally the Hong Kong financial sniper war. When I decided to fight this battle, I held nearly $50 billion and more than 100 billion in Hong Kong dollars. Moreover, I had a long-term agreement with UBS and HSBC Holdings at that time, and could mortgage domestic assets at any time. Through this

In this way, I can still sell about 30 billion US dollars to fight the opponent in full swing. After the sniper war, we have hit the entire international speculators hard. How much they lose, how much we make. As far as I know, the losses this time, including Quantum and Tiger Fund are basically damaged. The deficits of Bank of America and Merrill Lynch are also not low, especially Merrill Lynch. I now estimate that Merrill Lynch is already making false financial reports. Otherwise, as soon as its real financial report is released, its market value will plummet, and the entire Merrill Lynch will fall into a bankruptcy crisis. In addition to these direct returns, we have large-scale mergers and merged some financial institutions in the Southeast Asian financial market, including the acquisition of Standard Chartered, the acquisition of Thai Pangu Bank, South Korea Commercial Bank and Sanyo Securities.

In fact, they all chose a very good opportunity. When I was going to the tour, Sanyo Securities was negotiating with Beiyang Bank to reorganize and merge their competitors' banking business, including receiving credit banks' business in Tokyo. The newly established Sanyo Bank can roughly become the sixth largest bank. After accepting the savings business of South Korea's No. 1 Bank of Korea, it can be roughly considered the third largest commercial bank in South Korea. In the Philippines, Zhongqi Standard Chartered Bank is actually the largest commercial bank. It can be said that such opportunities have not been there in the past twenty years, and it will be difficult to reappear in the next twenty years. Zhongqi Investment Bank has almost become the largest financial consortium in Asia in the past two years."

After hearing Yang Shaozong say these reports, the members still had a lot of surprises.

They were probably thinking, is China's economy so strong? Can our investment banks merge, South Korea and Thailand?

Yang Shaozong Ting talked about this issue casually and continued: "Of course, during this period, Zhongqi Investment Bank has actually made a lot of contributions to the state capital. Including taking over the business of the central bank, at the end of 1996, Zhongqi Investment Bank successively sold 4 million ounces of gold for the central bank through Hong Kong Zhongqi, and used part of its foreign exchange reserves to buy 8.7 million ounces of gold at the end of September 1998. I personally expect that the gold price will continue to increase in value in the next ten years. I personally recommend that the National Gold Reserve Bureau continue to increase its holdings of gold in the next ten years. As the United States continues to adopt loose monetary policies, the US dollar has risen and strong due to the Asian financial crisis.

The stage will not be too long. This stage will last about two years and then continue to weaken for about the next ten years. From this perspective, buying US Treasury bonds is definitely not as stable as investing in gold. I suggest that the central government should use 30% of its foreign exchange reserves to buy gold futures every year. One of my estimates is that when the US dollar debt exceeds the US government's fiscal capacity, the US government will find ways to raise the gold price and continue to weaken the US dollar, because the US government now holds more than 40% of the world's gold reserves. This means that as long as the US dollar depreciates by half and raises the gold price three times, it can clear up all debts."

At this time, Premier Rong asked through the microphone with some doubts: "Director Yang, can you personally be sure that the depreciation of the US dollar will be so large in the future, and can the gold price rise to this level?"

Yang Shaozong thought for a while and said, "I can only say that the probability is very high. The United States is the most open free capital market in the world. After the Asian financial crisis ended, the world actually lacked enough investment space. A large amount of international capital is cruising around the world. They need an export. The total amount of these international capital is expected to be between 3 trillion and 5 trillion. As long as 1/5 of them intervene in the country, China can continue to maintain a 10% rapid growth in the next ten years. We consider in turn, where will it flow more? There is no doubt that the United States is still because the economy is actually recession very strong. The four Asian little dragons and four little tigers are basically destroyed, and now they can only return to the United States.

One feature of the economy is that it can use the US dollar as the privilege of the world currency to transfer its own inflation to the international economy. However, when all US dollars are transferred back to the United States, the United States itself will continue to intervene in inflation. With the loose monetary policy adopted by the United States itself, the United States will have a very high inflation coefficient in the next decade, and it may not be seen, because it will have a large amount of capital that directly intervenes in the US stock market and real estate. Overall, the amount of world liquid capital is still too large, and it will become larger and larger, and sooner or later a new economic crisis will be brewed. Moreover, if the next economic crisis is not born in China, it will definitely be born in the United States, because this is the main direction of international capital flow in the next decade."

I dare not ask others because this person is the Nobel Prize in Economics. Even if I have any questions in my heart, I still dare not ask directly.

Premier Rong felt that he dared to ask, so he continued to ask: "Then do you think the US dollar will depreciate at most, and how much can gold rise?"

Yang Shaozong silently calculated it, and considered it more cautiously, and finally replied: "The actual depreciation of the US dollar will be around 3% per year, and the increase of gold will be around 7% per year. Judging from the actual depreciation of the US dollar, investing in US dollar bonds itself basically lacks the value of preserving value. In the next ten years, as international capital continues to enter domestic investment, coupled with the long-term trade surplus, domestic and foreign exchange reserves will continue to grow rapidly. We will face two complex problems at that time. First, if we do not hold a large amount of US dollars, the US dollar will continue to be

Accelerate depreciation, secondly, hold the US dollar, and the United States will digest its international debt through the continuous depreciation of the US dollar. This is a very headache, so it is best for us to accelerate the construction of the Asian dollar, increase the holdings of the Asian dollar, and at the same time use 30% of the foreign exchange reserves to absorb gold reserves. On the other hand, I suggest using part of the foreign exchange reserves to invest in the US stock market and the US real estate industry, and using the growth of the US bubble to offset the depreciation, just sell at a very suitable time to avoid the heavy blow of the crisis."

Premier Rong pondered for a moment and asked: "Can the National Research Institute undertake this research work?"

Yang Shaozong said: "It is best to be responsible for this work by professional investment banks, and capital can be entrusted to professional investment banks. I personally think that the only option for the time being is Zhongqi Investment Bank. China International Trust and Investment Company should speed up the construction of professional fields and receive most of its business from Zhongqi Investment Bank in the later stage."

Premier Rong thought about it and asked: "If I insist on using 20% ​​of my foreign exchange reserves to invest in the United States, how high do you estimate the average rate of return and how big the risk is?"

Yang Shaozong said: "The average annual rate of return can be maintained at 7%. The higher the annual rate of return, the greater the risk. I suggest that 50% of the US dollar foreign exchange is used to invest in the most stable US Treasury bonds. About 10% of this 50% will continue to be used to invest in relatively risky Treasury bond derivative financial products. We insist on using the 25% of the annual foreign exchange reserves to invest in gold, and 10% will be used for long-term areas with relatively stable investment returns, especially for international oil and resource investment institutions, which offset oil prices and resources in the future growth space. My view is still the same as in the past. As long as China's economy grows rapidly, the international oil and resource prices will definitely grow year by year. Now we must build positions and we must increase them in these

International investment in the field will increase domestic resource exploration and development investment, and continuously offset the negative factors that may be caused by the growth of international resource prices. The remaining 15% is used to increase holdings of the euro or other currencies to diversify foreign exchange reserves. A key factor here is that if the United States takes the initiative to raise the price of gold to offset the debt risks, we hold a large amount of gold reserves. At critical moments, we can sell gold to suppress its offsetting behavior, and we can also offset our government debts through the price of gold, and we should simultaneously synchronize the two sides. Finally, we should take out 10 billion US dollars as the base fund, and build a government trust fund in Zhongqi Investment Bank to be responsible for investing in the international financial market. The yield is higher and the risk is not relevant."

Premier Rong nodded slightly.

He had been leaning forward and looking at Yang Shaozong face to face, but now he sat back completely and leaned against the back of the chair, saying to other members in a relaxed manner: "We hired a dean of the National Research Institute, a first-class macroeconomic expert in the world, and actually a national financial advisor. I think we are doing this very well."

The leaders still smiled as they heard this, and discussed each other a few words about these issues.

Premier Rong did not ask everyone to continue to discuss it, but said to Yang Shaozong: "We will end this topic, and we will take some time to discuss it separately in the future. Now we will concentrate on talking about some issues in our domestic economy. If you have any ideas, you can boldly say that you are a master in this field, so let's listen carefully!"

Yang Shaozong simply replied: "The Prime Minister is too praise... In fact, I think Comrade Chen Xihua has basically said it all the time. I don't want to do too much discussion. I will summarize my view on the domestic economy in one sentence, which is 'It's very good, but it's not good enough, it's even far from being very good'. If we just want to be a second-rate economic power, this data is very good. If we want to build China into a world economic hegemon that can compete with the United States, we have too many things to do, and our current data is far from enough."

After a pause, he continued: "To discuss our current shortcomings, we must first look at the development of the international economy. I will talk about several issues. First, I went some time ago and obtained some data from the National Industrial Economic Research Center. From 1975 to 1985, the investment in scientific research was equivalent to 60% of the United States' level in the same period. In 1985, it was even higher than that of the United States. Starting from 1986, with the continuous appreciation of the yen, the real estate and stock markets invested in international capital have become a business that is stable to make profits, and a large amount of capital began to pour in, rising by 30% every year in the stock market and land prices rose by 15% every year.

Driven by the power supply, a large number of enterprises' capital began to pour into the stock market and real estate. Since 1986, the total investment of enterprises in the scientific research field has dropped sharply. By 1992, the total investment of enterprises in the scientific research field was only 35% compared with the United States. For both enterprise scientific research, the United States' scientific research funds are mainly invested in new technology fields, while continuing to be in the direction of home appliances and machinery products. It can be said that in the past twelve years, the United States has completely opened up the gap between itself and in the new technology field. Now, it has become very difficult to catch up. At present, we evaluate the international high-tech field, and all the top ten market value are American companies.

We must admit that this is a new era. If we want to surpass the United States, we cannot expect that the people will all produce socks and down jackets, and then they can surpass the United States. The profit of each pair of socks will not be able to buy two bo-sound passenger planes. If we want to surpass the United States, we must make a lot of effort and have the greatest courage in the world. If we don’t have the courage to do this, it’s best not to do it. Otherwise, the continued rapid economic growth will attract international capital, domestic real estate prices will continue to soar, and prices will soar. The faster our GD rises, the faster the prices will rise.

The more the price the people pay. If we raise wages, capital will go away from us, the unemployment rate will begin to surge, and the lives of the people will become more and more painful, and we will be farther away from the dream of common prosperity of socialism. If the Southeast Asian crisis develops in China, if we are like Indonesia, 80% of the country and national wealth evaporate overnight, I dare not imagine how big a political crisis our country will encounter. Indonesians vent this anger on the Chinese Indonesians. Who can we vent our anger on then? Is it our party? I think no one dares to guarantee it!"

Premier Rong was still not very happy to hear this. He said directly: "This courage is borne by me and all the members of the Politburo. If our development fails, the consequences will be serious. It is like a shot put raised by Gao. It will definitely hurt if it is smashed. But I believe that our party has the courage and determination, and we also have the courage. Now, Dean Yang, the question you need to answer is that if we reform and develop, we can surpass the United States!"

Yang Shaozong nodded and continued: "In general, we must insist on doing four things. First, establish an honest and efficient government; Second, open the financial industry, allow foreign capital to intervene, and at the same time, learn from the experience of other Asian countries, insist on maintaining the stability of exchange rates, insist on restricting the short-term flow of international capital, insist on orderly and step-by-step financial market opening. Simply put, foreign banks and financial institutions are allowed to come in and operate, but you are not allowed to do business that we disagree with; Third, continue to expand opening up, maintain relatively low wages and relatively high welfare for a long time, stabilize society, pursue national average growth, balanced development and comprehensive improvement, in terms of social welfare, we must especially increase expenditure on education, at least the obligation and free of charge for secondary technical secondary school education, expand the coverage of the entire compulsory education, and in the medical field, joint insurance medical care should be fully adopted, increase investment in township hospitals, and ensure that most people can enjoy medical insurance and medical subsidies. In the housing field,

, Through urban low-income housing and rural township fundraising housing, we should minimize the rigid demand for housing as much as possible, limit the huge profits of real estate, ensure that most people have housing, and at the same time force international and domestic capital to turn to the industrial field for long-term investment; Fourth, in the rural economy, we should adhere to the socialist position, maintain a relatively left-leaning policy, ensure the stability of the vast majority of agricultural population through joint forces, and gradually realize the re-development of urbanization and township industries in an orderly manner; In the market economy, we should continue to adhere to the relatively right-wing policy of the free economy, continue to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the government withdraws from the operating level. It is just that the regulators and controlling investors of state-owned capital will increase their efforts to cultivate world-class national enterprises, use policies to attract market capital to freely intervene in high-tech fields, as well as traditional monopoly fields such as shipping, oil, and telecommunications, and create a low-cost operating society for the people through competition, and realize an economic ecology under a low-wage environment."

Yang Shaozong finished his thoughts in one breath, but he did not say why he did this, but he had actually explained these four aspects to Chairman Wang and Premier Rong separately.

Chairman Wang did not make any statement, and Premier Rong was very supportive.

At this time, Premier Rong continued: "You can say it more carefully and in-depth!"

"good!"

Yang Shaozong nodded slightly and continued to answer the basic principles of these four points.

First of all, Yang Shaozong's core idea is to maintain a low inflationary social operation and economic form, which is actually a mandatory government manipulation of the internal appreciation and external depreciation of the RMB, resulting in greater international competitiveness.

His core theory is "a low-inflation social operation economic form", which is a disguised logical structure of Keynesianism, which offsets the cost of monetary inflation through large social welfare and subsidies and increases the competitiveness of international trade. However, China does not adopt a policy of directly subsidizing agricultural and industrial products, but uses social welfare to reduce national i, and then further stimulates national consumption through low interest rates.

In fact, the government is likely to rely on government bonds to maintain this welfare policy, including four major welfare expenses for housing, education, medical care and transportation. For example, the government directly builds a large number of free secondary roads, and by adopting a perfect competition for the oil industry, it suppresses the reduction of the circulation costs of the entire society, thereby reducing it and enhancing the export competitiveness of the entire mainland market.

For example, at the housing level, the government will build large quantities of low-income housing and new rural housing to reduce the national expenditure in the housing sector. If this expenditure is reduced, the national consumption power will increase.
To be continued...