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On the day of the lecture, Li Weidong arrived at the lecture early and was then taken to a lounge.

There were six people giving lectures today, and Li Weidong was ranked fourth. It was a time period when he often went to the toilet when he was tired of listening.

The first teacher talks about international politics, the second teacher talks about stocks and futures markets, and the third teacher talks about finance and trade economics.

Li Weidong talked about Japanese economy, the fifth teacher talked about sociology and population, and the sixth teacher talked about the latest technology in the world.

A young staff member came forward with a document. He thought for a moment about how to address Li Weidong, and then said: "Teacher Li, your handouts are ready. Please take a look at it first. If there are no questions,

, it will be sent to the leaders of the ministries and commissions attending the lecture soon."

Li Weidong took the handout, read it once, and then nodded: "No problem."

The young staff member continued: "Also, I heard that you didn't prepare any slides, so we won't turn on the slide projector when you speak later."

"It's better not to turn on the slide projector, at least the room will be brighter." Li Weidong said.

In 1993, lectures did not have as many computer-aided equipment as now, let alone PPT courseware.

At that time, the normal operation of teaching was a blackboard with handouts. If it was more advanced, it would be equipped with a slide projector. The teacher lectured on it while the assistant manually changed the pictures on the slide projector below.

The principle of a slide projector is very simple, with a light box and a convex lens. Nowadays, the young people born in 2000 and 2000 have probably never seen that kind of old-fashioned slide projector. However, in the 1990s, the slide projector was still a very commonly used teaching aid.

In those teacher lecture competitions held by the education department at that time, classrooms with curtains were often chosen to facilitate the use of slide projectors.

Li Weidong waited in the lounge for a while, and an old man was invited in. Behind the old man was a young man, who should be the old man's student, helping to change the slides during the lecture.

"Academician Situ, please come this way!" The young staff member brought a handout as usual and asked the old man to check it.

The old man had brought slides, so the staff took the slides to test the clarity of the slides and whether they could be played normally.

At this time, Li Weidong already knew the identity of this old man. His name was Situ Jian, an academician of the Academy of Social Sciences. His current official work unit is the Institute of Finance, Trade and Economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, a top think tank in domestic finance, trade and economics, and has participated in many projects.

Formulation of economic policies.

The third lecturer on finance, trade and economics today is Academician Situ.

Situ Jian was also idle. He looked at Li Weidong and asked, "Young man, where is your mentor?"

Situ Jian regarded Li Weidong as coming with his mentor.

Li Weidong immediately stood up and replied respectfully: "Academician Situ, I have no mentor."

"I don't have a tutor? Is it possible that you are the one giving the lecture today?" Situ Jian asked with a smile.

"I'm the one giving the lecture." Li Weidong nodded seriously.

"Tell me, what can you say?" Situ Jian thought Li Weidong was joking with him again.

"I'm talking about Japan's economy." Li Weidong replied.

Situ Jian was slightly taken aback and said with a face full of ridicule: "I really don't know the person who is talking about Japan's economy today. Looking at his resume, he is both the chairman and the director of the factory. He should be a businessman.

Could it be you?"

"Yes, my name is Li Weidong, and I am in business." Li Weidong nodded shyly.

Situ Jian looked Li Weidong up and down, still refusing to believe what Li Weidong said.

Li Weidong said: "Academician Situ, if I wanted to lie to you, I wouldn't choose a place like this! And not just anyone can come in to this room. If I don't give lectures, they might ask me to stay here.

What are you doing?"

"That's right! Liars will not be brought here." Situ Jian nodded, and then asked with a surprised look on his face: "How old are you this year?"

"Twenty-five years old!" Li Weidong replied.

"So young!" A shocked expression appeared on Situ Jian's face. It took more than ten seconds to regain his composure, and then he sighed: "When I saw your resume, I thought you must be at least fifty or sixty years old.

, I didn’t expect that I was only twenty-five years old.”

For general large-scale state-owned enterprises, it is normal for someone in their fifties to become a top leader, and to be a top leader in their forties is considered young and promising. So when Situ Jian saw the titles of "factory director" and "chairman"

, I instinctively feel that Li Weidong must be in his fifties.

But I didn't expect that Li Weidong was so young, only twenty-five years old.

At twenty-five years old, he is younger than all the students under Situ Jian!

Fortunately, a top scholar like Situ Jian has seen many geniuses in his daily life. For example, Tsinghua's prodigy class, where students study for undergraduates at the age of twelve or thirteen and graduate with doctorate degrees at the age of seventeen or eighteen, Situ Jian also saw it with his own eyes

Saw it.

We usually see a lot of geniuses, so after learning Li Weidong's age, although Situ Jian was surprised, he didn't seem too embarrassed and he immediately calmed down.

At this moment, a voice sounded from the door: "Situ, what are you talking about with a young man!"

Situ Jian looked back and said: "Old Huang, this is not a junior. This young man is called Li Weidong. Like us, he is here to give lectures!"

Hearing the name "Lao Huang", Li Weidong immediately realized that the person coming was Professor Huang Liwei from the Central University of Finance and Economics, the professor who explained stocks and futures. It is said that the establishment of the two major domestic stock exchanges and the formulation of trading rules,

Professor Huang has participated in all of them and can be said to be the top securities expert in the country.

"Li Weidong? You are that Li Weidong!" Professor Huang Wei looked Li Weidong up and down, and then said: "I heard Professor Zhao from our school mention it before, saying that there was a young man who accurately predicted Japan's economic policy.

, even the rotation of Japan’s political parties was predicted by him, is it you? I thought he was a young man of about forty years old, but I didn’t expect him to be so young! What a terrifying young man!”

The "Professor Zhao" in Huang Liwei's mouth is the Professor Zhao Yue whom Li Weidong met at the symposium before. He is also from the Central University of Finance and Economics.

Li Weidong nodded and replied humbly: "Professor Huang is right. In front of these two teachers, I am just a junior."

Situ Jian asked: "Old Huang, what did you mean by predicting Japan's economic policy and political party rotation?"

"The thing is like this..." Huang Liwei gave a general introduction to what happened, and finally added: "Our young man also predicted that Japan will fall into a liquidity trap!"

"Liquidity trap? How can this be..." Situ Jian suddenly stopped talking, and then started to think seriously.

Huang Liwei said: "When I first heard it, I thought it was impossible, but looking at Japan's current interest rate cut trend, I really can't say for sure! I study securities. In the past month, the Nikkei Index has gone from

It fell to more than 17,000 points from 19,000 points. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate cut did not stimulate the stock market, which is not good news for the Japanese economy.”

Situ Jian said, "Japan's trade data is relatively normal. After a decline in 1991, it began to rebound last year. Judging from the first two quarters of this year, it has returned to the level of 1989. From this aspect,

The likelihood of falling into a liquidity trap is unlikely.”

Li Weidong said, "Academician Situ, don't forget that Japan's current trade structure has changed. In the 1980s, Japan's trade was dominated by Japanese manufacturing. Japan's trade figures are truly Japanese products.

Now, direct overseas investment in industrial transfer has gradually become part of Japan’s domestic industrial supply chain, and the figures for this part have also been added to Japan’s trade data. Japan’s trade figures now are much larger than they were in the 1980s.”

Situ Jian said, "In the modern industrial system, industrial transfer is a normal thing. And we have experienced similar things in the past. For example, after World War II, some industries were transferred from the United States to Japan and Europe, and Japanese industries were transferred to Asia.

In the Four Tiger countries, these industries are now beginning to transfer to China, as well as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries.

In the process of this industry, many emerging economies were born, such as the economic recovery of Western Europe in the 1950s, Japan in the 1960s, and the Four Asian Tigers in the 1970s. Countries whose industries have been transferred away, such as the United States and Japan

Wait, their economy didn't fall into recession."

"That's because the previous industrial transfers were all to the right places! Whether it's Japan or South Korea, they all have an environment for industrial development."

Li Weidong continued: "Nowadays, Japanese industries are rapidly moving to Southeast Asia. This is not a suitable place for investment. These countries have no industrial genes."

"Are you saying that the political situation in Southeast Asian countries is unstable?" Situ Jian asked.

"This is just one aspect, such as infrastructure, population quality, market potential, etc., which are all unstable factors. But the most critical thing is finance, which will be a huge risk." Li Weidong replied.

"The finance in Southeast Asia is relatively weak, but in terms of huge risks, I really don't see it." Situ Jian said.

Li Weidong answered: "Emerging economies in Asia such as Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented economies. They are highly dependent on the world market. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia are also becoming export-oriented.

The path to a new economy.

Once all of East Asia and Southeast Asia become export-oriented economies, it will really affect the whole country! As long as there is a breach in one of the countries, there will be a chain effect, making the entire East and Southeast Asia regions export-oriented.

The whole economy collapsed!”

"What breach are you talking about?" Situ Jian asked.

Li Weidong continued: "As for the real economy, it is more difficult to crack down, but the financial system is different. Developed countries like Japan are unlikely to be hit by financial crackdowns, but what about countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia? Can they?

Can it withstand a financial hit?

In the financial market, through leverage, one dollar can move a hundred dollars. If a few international speculators gather hundreds of millions of funds, the leverage can reach tens of billions of dollars. With the wealth of Southeast Asian countries, they can stop it.

What?

Once there is a financial breach in Southeast Asian countries, it will attract people from all over the world to pick up bargains. With the ability of Wall Street, it shouldn't be a problem to spend tens of billions of dollars, right? Even Japan will probably be able to do so by then.

Protect yourself!

When the financial system suffers a blow, it will inevitably drag down the real economy. Japan has huge investments in Southeast Asian countries, so the losses suffered by Japan may be even greater than those in Southeast Asian countries. By then, the liquidity trap will really come!

"

Professor Huang Liwei immediately said: "If what you say comes true, it will be an economic crisis sweeping across Asia! Then what do you think is the probability of such a thing happening?"

"One hundred percent! Because this is a structural problem. If the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries remains unchanged, the Asian financial crisis will happen sooner or later!" Li Weidong sighed and continued: "In terms of time, I think within five years, what I said will definitely happen.

of the Asian financial crisis.”

"Within five years? Asian financial crisis? How dare you say that!" Situ Jian shook his head, obviously not believing what Li Weidong said.

Li Weidong did not defend himself. He smiled slightly and said, "Of course, these are all immature speculations of a younger generation like me. If the two teachers feel that something is wrong, they have the right to treat it as Tu Yile!"
To be continued...