A business development forum is being held in a five-star hotel in Beijing.

Although it is called the Enterprise Development Forum, it is jointly sponsored by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce. In addition to the heads of major enterprises, there are also some well-known economists and some policy makers.

The theme of this forum discussion is how to deal with this global financial crisis.

Although China's financial system has not yet integrated with international standards, China's economy was still very dependent on foreign trade at that time. The biggest impact of the financial crisis on China was not financial risks, but losses in export trade.

Foreigners have no money to spend, which naturally affects China's exports. Therefore, many export-oriented companies came to participate in this forum, hoping to obtain policy support.

As soon as Li Weidong walked into the venue, he saw several acquaintances, all of whom were well-known domestic private entrepreneurs.

"Chairman Li, sit over here!" Familiar people have already begun to greet Li Weidong.

Li Weidong walked forward with a smile and said: "Mr. Zhang, I haven't seen you for a few days. You look thinner. You must be working out recently, right?"

"I am not slim because of fitness, but because of worry!" Mr. Zhang on the opposite side sighed, and then said: "The U.S. economy is not good, and our orders for the next quarter have suddenly dropped by 50%. If we didn't have this 50%

With export orders, I don’t even know how I will spend the next New Year!”

Another person next to him said: "Mr. Zhang, your situation is good. Our factory has not received overseas orders since May. Now it is all supported by domestic orders. If there are no more domestic orders,

, we have to go bankrupt!”

"Chairman Li, how is the situation of your Puppy Group? A large part of your profits come from exports, right?" a third person asked.

"We are all the same. The economic environment is like this, and our lives are not easy." Li Weidong paused, and then said: "However, our main business is small household appliances, kitchen appliances and beauty equipment, so the impact is greater than that of larger ones."

Home appliances are cheaper. It’s always easier for female consumers to make money.”

Mr. Zhang opened his mouth and said: "Leaders from ministries and commissions will be present soon, and they may explain the next policies. There are also well-known economists, and I heard there are think tank members, who will make predictions about the next international economic situation.

, we have to listen carefully. If the economy continues to decline next year, I will have to reduce the scale of production quickly."

"Yes, I also need to make a raw material procurement plan for next year. If the international economic situation is still not good next year, I will not dare to purchase too many raw materials." Another person said.

Li Weidong said: "You guys chat first, I'll excuse you for a moment."

Mr. Zhang looked at his watch and said, "The forum is about to start. You'd better find a place to sit quickly, otherwise there will be more people and there won't be any good seats."

"Aren't there a lot of empty seats in front?" Li Weidong said and pointed to the rostrum.

"The seats under the rostrum are reserved for leaders of ministries and commissions, as well as economists from think tanks. How can we, the business people, get our turn? It will be convenient for those economists to sit in front and speak on the stage later." Mr. Zhang said.

replied.

Li Weidong smiled slightly, lowered his voice and said, "Mr. Zhang, I am here to participate in the forum as an economist today!"

…

Li Weidong and three other economists sat on the rostrum.

"There are famous economists on the stage. What is Li Weidong doing there?"

"I never heard that Li Weidong received any important degree in economics!"

"We people are always so busy. Even if we have academic qualifications, we probably only have a diploma."

Many people who didn't know Li Weidong began to talk in low voices.

"You don't know yet, but Li Weidong accurately predicted the Asian financial crisis back then. He really understands economics."

"There are rumors that before the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out, Li Weidong also issued an early warning to certain domestic financial institutions."

The two people talking had obviously heard rumors about Li Weidong.

At this time, the host introduced: "Today we have invited four guests to discuss issues related to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. First of all, welcome Professor Huang Dongsheng from Renmin University!"

When the applause started, Professor Huang Dongsheng stood up and bowed to everyone.

The host then introduced: "Welcome the special commentator of Economic Weekly, Professor Sun Haifeng of the National Institute of Economic Research!"

Applause rang out again. Everyone knows that the National Institute of Economic Research is an important economic think tank, so Professor Sun Haifeng is also a member of the think tank.

"Next, I would like to welcome Vice Dean Cai Guorong of the School of Economics and Business Administration of HKU! Finally, I would like to welcome Chairman Li Weidong of Puppy Group!"

After introducing these four guests, the host got to the main topic of the day.

I heard the person living there say: "The financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is still getting worse. Not long ago, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, filed for bankruptcy. Recently, there is news that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will also file for bankruptcy."

Bankruptcy. Once Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae go bankrupt, it will be a fatal blow to the U.S. real estate industry.

In response to the financial crisis, the U.S. government recently proposed a financial rescue bill, which will invest US$700 billion to purchase financial derivatives related to U.S. subprime loans. Currently, this financial rescue bill is stuck in the U.S.

In the House of Representatives, do the four experts think this bill can be passed in the end? If you think it can be passed, please raise your right hand, and if you think it can't be passed, please raise your left hand."

All four people raised their right hands in unison.

The host continued: "It seems that the opinions of the four experts are relatively unified. Since the four experts all think that the law can be passed, then when will it be passed, the four experts will be asked to make analysis and predictions. Let's start with Huang

Professor, let’s get started!”

Professor Huang Dongsheng cleared his throat and said, "In my opinion, the sooner this financial rescue law is passed, the better. But the problem is that 700 billion US dollars is not a small amount. How should this money be spent?"

It will be a difficult problem, and I think the time will need to be determined after consultation between the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve."

Professor Huang is a thief. He did not predict the accurate time. After all, who can say this kind of thing accurately? It would be so embarrassing if the prediction is wrong.

"What do you think, Professor Sun?" the host asked again.

"I very much agree with Professor Huang's point of view, but I would like to add a few words. Although this financial rescue bill was proposed by the US government, the specific amount and the specific content of the plan have not yet been finalized. The Democratic Party has not yet finalized

There are still different opinions on this law." Professor Sun replied.

It's also a chicken thief's answer, without giving the exact time.

"Dean Cai, what do you think?" the host then asked.

“Whether this bill is passed will affect the votes in the U.S. presidential election. I think there are two possible time points, one is before the U.S. election in November, and the other is after the U.S. election in November. Finally,

It should not be later than mid-December." Cai Guorong replied.

"Chairman Li, what do you think?" The host asked Li Weidong last.

"My prediction is bolder than President Cai. I think the Democratic Party will delay this bill until the end of the election. It is estimated that it will be implemented in late November, and the amount of the bill will increase to more than 800 billion US dollars." Li Weidong replied.

explain.

The first question was just a warm-up, and the next step was the real discussion topic. The host then asked: "Four experts believe that the U.S. financial rescue bill can help the U.S. economy get out of the current predicament.

Return to normal level? If you think you can, please raise your right hand; if you think you can't, please raise your left hand."

This time, Li Weidong decisively raised his left hand, while the other three economists raised their right hands.

"It seems that our experts have different opinions. Then I would like to ask Chairman Li directly, why do you think the US government's financial rescue law cannot restore the US economy to normal levels?" the host asked.

Li Weidong took the microphone and replied: "The financial rescue plan proposed by the U.S. government this time is mainly to purchase derivative financial products of non-performing mortgage loans. The purpose is to stabilize the financial system and rebuild the stability of financial institutions in the form of state guarantees."

Credit and restore liquidity to the credit market.

Therefore, this plan can only stabilize the market, but cannot stimulate the economy. The confidence that American consumers have lost due to the subprime mortgage crisis will not be restored. I think the U.S. economy wants to return to normal.

level, but these hundreds of billions of dollars are far from enough, and more economic stimulus plans are needed.”

Professor Huang was the next to speak. He took the microphone and said: "I am not so pessimistic. US$700 billion is already a very huge financial stimulus plan. What's more important is that this time the US government comes to purchase the financial derivatives of subprime loans."

With the guarantee of government credibility, I believe the U.S. financial market will soon regain confidence and liquidity!"

What Professor Huang said was exactly the judgment of most economists at that time. Everyone was generally optimistic about this financial rescue plan. Not only Chinese economists thought so, but American economists also thought so.

First, because the amount of US$700 billion is huge and unprecedented, spending such a large amount of money will definitely trigger a strong market reaction.

The second reason is that this time the U.S. government took direct action. The U.S. government purchased financial derivatives of subprime mortgages, which means that the U.S. government is willing to cover the bottom line for subprime mortgages. The academic community is naturally optimistic about the effectiveness of the financial rescue plan.

Dean Cai next to him also took the microphone and continued: "Let me add to Professor Huang, this kind of financial stimulus plan involving hundreds of billions of dollars is not something that can be launched casually. First and most importantly, it is

There is sufficient financial support. With the current financial situation of the United States, borrowing money is already needed to raise this 700 billion, and it is unlikely that there will be more economic stimulus plans in the future."

Dean Cai said and glared at Li Weidong, as if if you talk about the "more economic stimulus plan" in your mouth, it is impossible to be in danger.

Li Weidong replied: "Funds have never been a problem. The United States can completely use quantitative easing to solve the problem. By then, let alone 700 billion US dollars, even 7 trillion US dollars will not be a problem."

Speaking of quantitative easing, the other three economists frowned involuntarily.

It was Professor Huang who was the first to say: "This is impossible! Quantitative easing is a powerful medicine for the economy. Given the size of the US economy, if quantitative easing is implemented, it will have an immeasurable impact on the world's economy.

.There is no need for the United States to use such high-risk economic means."

Li Weidong replied: "Professor Huang, since the 9/11 incident, the United States has been at war, and the U.S. finance will definitely not be able to afford this 700 billion U.S. dollars. So I don’t think we need to wait until the future to use the 7000 billion U.S. dollars used in this financial rescue law.

billion, it must be solved through quantitative easing.

And if this 700 billion US dollars cannot solve the problem, there will be multiple quantitative easing in the future. If this 700 billion US dollars is QE1, then there will definitely be QE2, QE3, and even QE4.

Quantitative easing will not end until the U.S. economy returns to normal."

…

People nowadays are no longer unfamiliar with quantitative easing. They all know that it means printing money. After all, many countries are using this method during the epidemic, and they are even competing to see who can print more money.

In 2008, quantitative easing was still a new term.

It was the Japanese who first proposed the concept of "quantitative easing". Japan's economy stagnated after the Asian financial crisis. By the beginning of the 21st century, the economies of the Four Asian Tigers and Southeast Asian countries had begun to recover, and the Japanese economy remained the same.

No improvement.
To be continued...