Li Zhongxin was very happy about the harmony of dinner in the hotel. His parents were in a good mood and ate and drank with everyone. From time to time, he praised Haruko and Masako Mitsui. Li Zhongxin felt that it was a very good thing.

At least this trip to Hong Kong will not be disappointed because of my parents.

All night was speechless. The next morning, Li Zhongxin got up and arranged Feng Banshan to his parents again, and began to wait for Masako Mitsui and Haruko. Li Zhongxin led them to play happily there for a day and arranged Haruko

Very satisfied.

After coming back for supper, Li Zhongxin called Mitsui Masako and Komura Eika to his room and talked with them about the purpose of his trip to Hong Kong.

"You said that before and after Hong Kong's return in 1997, there would be a large-scale financial crisis in Asia? Why is this?" Masako Mitsui's beautiful eyes flashed and she looked at Li Zhongxin with surprise.

Masako Mitsui knew in her heart that the financial crisis was a crisis in the financial field. Because the liquidity of financial assets was very strong, the international nature of finance was very strong. The fuse of the financial crisis could be financial products, markets and institutions of any country.

The financial crisis is characterized by people's expectations that the economy will be more pessimistic in the future. The currency value in the entire region has depreciated significantly, the total economic volume and economic scale have been greatly reduced, and economic growth has been hit, which is often accompanied by a large number of enterprises.

The phenomenon of bankruptcy, the increase in unemployment rate, the general economic depression in society, and sometimes even accompanied by social unrest or national political turmoil.

Finance is a general term for a series of activities centered on money and capital. The main concepts corresponding to it are consumption and production, while the latter two mainly revolve around goods and services.

The so-called financial crisis refers to the fact that there is a certain persistent contradiction in the operation of activities related to currency and capital, such as the credit crisis in bill cashing, the currency crisis caused by disconnection of trading, etc.

As for the US subprime mortgage crisis, the fundamental reason is that the monetary credit in the capital market is infinitely amplified through financial derivatives, which has brought about a huge gap between monetary credit supply and payment capacity for a long period of time, and finally seriously deviated from reality.

Limited demand for credit in the product market.

When this deviation generally exists in various areas of the financial market, the subprime mortgage crisis, that is, local financial contradictions, evolution toward financial crisis is inevitable.

Masako Mitsui didn't know much about finance before, but now she and Li Zhongxin have started a super large bank like Chuanxin Mitsui, so she naturally has some understanding of these things. She didn't think of making money in her heart.

What I thought of was what would happen if Chuanxin Mitsui Bank faced such a financial crisis?

"Aunt Masako, what about this matter! I judged it based on my sensitive sense of smell and some things. I have no way to judge whether this financial crisis can break out and when it will break out, but it is!

I personally think that when Hong Kong returns to China, it will definitely be an opportunity, or even an explosion point.

First of all! Let’s analyze this way that Asia is a stage of high overdraft economic growth and expansion of non-performing assets at this time.

Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries, especially countries in the Asian region, who all want to develop industries rapidly. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to continue to maintain the speed, these countries turn to

Borrow foreign debt to maintain economic growth.

However, due to the unsuccessful economic development, many countries have no longer had the ability to repay debts at this time. In Southeast Asian countries, the bubbles blown by real estate are only exchanged for bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; as for South Korea, due to the large number of dollars, the bubbles blown by real estate are only exchanged for bad debts and bad debts of bank loans.

It is too easy for enterprises to obtain funds from banks, resulting in the immediate expansion of non-performing assets once the company is in poor condition. The large number of non-performing assets has in turn affected investors' confidence.

Secondly! I think the Asia-Pacific market system is not mature. First, the government has excessive intervention in resource allocation, especially the loan investment direction and projects of the financial system; the other is the imperfect financial system, especially the regulatory system.

When there is no problem, there is a sing and dancing, and no problem exists. However, once there is a slight disturbance and a little problem, the disadvantages will appear suddenly.

Finally, it is about export substitution. The export substitution model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: First, when the economy develops to a certain stage, production costs will increase, and exports will be

It will be suppressed, causing imbalance in the balance of payments in these countries; second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual squeeze between them; third, the ladder progress of products is to continue to be implemented

The necessary condition for export substitution is that it cannot maintain competitiveness by relying solely on the cheap advantages of resources. After achieving rapid growth in Asia, these countries have not solved the above problems.

Because of these internal reasons, I personally think that the arrival of the financial crisis is absolutely inevitable." Li Zhongxin analyzed to Masako Mitsui very seriously.

In this matter, what Li Zhongxin said is basically the internal causes of macroscopicity and the most basic or essential reason for the financial crisis.

Why did Asia have financial crisis? These things are well-founded, and this crisis does not come at any time.

The internal reason is this, and there are many external reasons. At this time, there are a lot of international capital flowing in the international financial market. Once international speculators find that it is profitable in a country or region, they will immediately impact the currency of the country or region through speculation, so as to

Make huge profits in the short term.

Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand, and expand financial liberalization on the other hand, providing opportunities for international speculators to take advantage of.

Just like Thailand abolished the control of the capital market in 1992 before its financial system was straightened out, making the flow of short-term funds unimpeded, providing conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht.

In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have long used foreign exchange reserves to make up for the deficit, resulting in an increase in foreign debt.

The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of high debt in the medium term and short-term debt, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the country's foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for its shortcomings, the currency depreciation of this country is inevitable.
Chapter completed!