Chapter 99: Nine Earths and Nine Heavens
Guo Ye doesn't like asking his elders about everything. He likes to think by himself. He will naturally be ashamed to ask for advice humbly. If he can sort out his own thoughts, he will never let others reveal the answers for him.
The drizzling autumn rain lasted for several days. Jia Xu, who was wearing wide sleeves and robe, looked at the scene of water dripping like a stream in the eaves, with a calm expression and wondering what he was thinking in his heart.
Guo Ye stood beside him and whispered: "Sir, I have been thinking about the reactions of Yuan Shao and Cao Cao over the past few days. Yuan Shao is still a vassal of the world in less than two years. His status and strength make him arrogant. With his military strength, he can completely divide his troops into two groups, attack Cao Cao one by one, and guard against his father. In this way, Yuan Shao is very prepared. When he fights Cao Cao in the future, there will definitely be his garrison in Bingzhou to guard against his father who sent troops from Hangu Pass. Because Cao Cao's strength is very different from that of Yuan Shao, if the decisive battle comes, he will be unable to divide his troops into guard against his father. Even Liu Biao in the south, Sun Ce in Jiangdong, and Lu Bu in Xuzhou will have the opportunity to give Cao Cao a pot to remove firewood at that time. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether Cao Cao will be paralyzed by his father."
This view was thought out by Guo Ye himself. The best way to predict the enemy is to put yourself in the other party's position, and assume that he has the other party's conditions and how he will react. Guo Jia instilled this method in Guo Ye a long time ago.
Jia Xu looked at the foggy sky, with continuous autumn rain, delicate and silent, revealing a faint smile.
"Young Master Ye, if I were Cao Cao, I had 100,000 soldiers, you were Yuan Shao, you had 300,000. If you want to fight me, how many troops would you put into the battlefield?"
Guo Ye thought seriously, and after a moment of silence, he replied: "Yuan Shao planned to Jizhou and swallowed Hebei, and his aura was like a rainbow, but he led his army to attack Guanzhong by 200,000, but he ended up being wiped out by the entire army. In terms of military war talent, Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were far apart. Therefore, if I were Yuan Shao, I would put all these 300,000 troops on the battlefield to win."
"Okay, let me ask you again, if I had 200,000 soldiers and 600,000 soldiers, how many troops would you put into the decisive battle?"
Jia Xu asked then.
This time, Guo Ye fell into thinking for a longer time.
It sounds like the comparison between 100,000 and 300,000 and 200,000 and 600,000 are three times that of the other party, but war cannot be compared with such data.
This is how you should use this expression to truly understand the difference in strength. Three hundred thousand people are more than 100,000 people, and six hundred thousand people are more than 200,000 people, and four hundred thousand people are more than 200,000 people.
Guo Ye fell into deep thought. He had equal strength and no matter how good the time and place were, his chances of winning may be 50% but when facing 100,000, he may have less than 300,000, and when facing 200,000, his chances of winning have fallen by less than 100%.
From ancient times to the present, it is rare to see that victory can be handed over to the weak side when the military strength advantage is so disparate.
Even if Cao Cao reached the pinnacle of military strategy, he might not be able to defeat Yuan Shao under such a huge gap in military strength.
Today, Cao Cao only has Yanzhou and Yuzhou, plus a small part of Sizhou's land. It is difficult for him to compete with Yuan Shao, who owns Hebei. At least 80% of the people in the world think that Yuan is strong and Cao is weak. Yuan Shao wants to fight Cao Cao, and the winner is Yuan Shao.
Jia Xu asked Guo Ye not because he was asking about the outcome of this decisive battle in the future, but what attitude Yuan Shao would use to face this decisive battle. In Jia Xu's eyes, there was no absolute absolute number of victory or defeat. Even if the chance of victory was less than 10%, he might eventually win.
After all, Guo Ye is not well-versed in the world. If he faces such a situation with the military strategy he has learned, he will most likely choose to be safe rather than take risks.
"If I am Yuan Shao, with 600,000 troops, I will invest 500,000 on the battlefield, and another 100,000 will be restrained from Guanxi, in case my father waits for an opportunity to leave the country."
Guo Ye's answer made Jia Xu laugh and asked back: "Young Master Ye, you are Yuan Shao now. If you defeat Cao Cao, annex Yanzhou, Yuzhou, and Sizhou bordering Bingzhou, do you know what this victory means?"
Guo Ye was shocked. He only considered the war, but ignored the overall situation. At this time, he woke up and blurted out: "The World"
If Yuan Shao was not only the overlord of Hebei, but also annexed the Central Plains, the surrounding princes could almost immediately surrender, Lu Bu, Sun Ce, Liu Biao, and they could not resist Yuan Shao who owned the seven states.
In other words, as long as Yuan Shao defeated Cao Cao, he would not have only Hebei, Central Plains, Xuzhou, Jingzhou and Yangzhou. In this way, even if Guo Jia conquered Liangzhou at the same time, he would only have Guanzhong, Yizhou, and Liangzhou, and less than the territory of the three states. If such a situation develops, Guo Jia will almost never compete with Yuan Shao.
Jia Xu reached out and felt the coolness of the raindrops, and said lightly: "Yuan Shao and Cao Cao would have to go out in full swing. There are two reasons. First, Yuan Shao was defeated in Guanzhong. He was so arrogant and brave that he would no longer be confident because of his superiority. Cao Cao could fight more than him. Yuan Shao must know this self-knowledge, so he would invest as much as he has. Second, he had to defeat Cao Cao. Yuan Shao had only one obstacle to dominate the world, that is, the lord. The lord is gradually becoming stronger and Yuan Shao cannot sit idly by. When Gongsun Zan died, it is no longer important. He who is entrenched in Hebei wants to be strong and has only one way south, so he wants to defeat Cao Cao with thunder and overthrow."
Guo Ye, who was extremely immersed in hearing this, nodded frequently, but soon frowned again and asked: "Sir, if Yuan Shao wins, my father's situation will be in danger. At this time, why did his father paralyze Yuan Shao and Cao Cao, and why didn't he join forces with Cao Cao to fight against Yuan Shao? Even if he doesn't meet on the battlefield, it will delay time if Yuan Shao dares to move south, so that his father can gain a longer time to develop in Guanzhong."
At this moment, Jia Xu looked at Guo Ye differently, looked back and gave him an admiring look. Jia Xu smiled and said, "Young Master Ye must be deeply relieved when he learned about this."
Guo Ye has a calm personality, and even if it was Jia Xu's praise, he was not moved.
"There are still two reasons. The lord joins Cao Cao, and the two families benefit. The lord has more time to develop Guanzhong, and Cao Cao also has more time to wipe out weak forces around him. But in the long run, the lord hopes that one of the princes in the world can be less than one. Ten years ago, there were countless forces of all parties. To this day, there are not ten heroes who have separatist and independent worlds. If one hero is less than one opponent, there will be one less opponent. In the eyes of the lord, Yuan Shao and Cao Cao are obviously more fearful than Yuan Shao. It is better to wipe out Cao Cao as soon as possible than to let him grow old. The second reason is probably that Yuan Shao can't wait. Yuan Shao is nearly fifty years old. As long as he ensures that Hebei will not cause any more changes, he will be impatient to move south. He can fight with the princes, but he cannot fight with the destiny. His death period may be twenty years later, or ten years later, but how could Yuan Shao be confident of exploring the will of heaven?"
A look of annoyance appeared on Guo Ye's face.
He didn't consider too many factors.
Yuan Shao’s age and how long can he live? This is an obvious thing, why can’t he think of it?
Cao Cao was younger than Yuan Shao, and Cao Cao was cunning than Yuan Shao, which was ignored by him.
Turning his head, Jia Xu caressed Guo Ye's head lovingly and whispered: "Actually, Mr. Ye's previous speculation is half right. The lord of the lord is indeed trying to fight Jingzhou. But it depends on the timing, especially when Yuan Shao fights Cao Cao. If Guanzhong does not recover his vitality and makes the lord miss the opportunity to rush the Central Plains, then after Yuan Shao defeats Cao Cao, the lord will immediately swallow Jingzhou, and then form Jiangdong to win the battle together to resist Yuan Shao."
Guo Ye raised his head and looked at Jia Xu and asked in confusion: "Sun Ce in Jiangdong is only the six counties, why didn't he take it together with Jiangdong?"
Jia Xu shook his head and smiled: "It will not be easy to attack Jingzhou when there is a war in Jingzhou. Jiangdong will definitely take strict precautions. It is difficult to swallow the south of the Yangtze River in one breath."
Regardless of whether the matter between Jia Xu and Guo Ye and the master and apprentice were based on whether there was any basis for the discussion and speculation, at least one point Jia Xu was right.
In history, Cao Cao won the Battle of Guandu, but now, Guo Jia dare not prepare based on history alone.
What if Cao Cao is defeated?
Therefore, Guo Jia must be prepared to deal with it. If he cannot control the Battle of Guandu and cannot make a profit from it, the Yizhou navy will at least attack Jingzhou on both sides of the water and land when Yuan Shao won.
Take over Jingzhou, form an alliance with Jiangdong, and jointly deal with Yuan Shao.
This is an measure to prevent Yuan Shao from winning the battle in Guandu. Guo Jia cannot joke about his own wealth and life. If he does not prepare and Yuan Shao wins again, I am afraid that there will be no difference between the strength of the princes in the world, because Yuan Shao has almost achieved unification.
Guo Ye smiled bitterly and said, "I can't guess at all what my father thinks."
What he thought was that fighting Jingzhou was completely different from what Guo Jia thought about.
If Guo Jia attacked Jingzhou without a decisive battle between Yuan Shao and Cao Cao, the army would be named Wuming and would be contrary to his ministers, he and Liu Biao were both Han ministers. Before Liu Biao did something unfavorable to Guo Jia, Guo Jia had no reason to attack Jingzhou except for his ambition to explain.
But once Yuan Shao defeated Cao Cao, the background would be different. God has changed
Cao Cao took the emperor to order the princes, and Yuan Shao attacked Cao Cao. He called Cao Cao a thief the moment before, and as long as he defeated, he would become Yuan thief the next second
At that time, Guo Jia attacked Jingzhou, and there were too many names that could be used. Xu Du fell and Liu Biao refused to save him. This was the reason. Yuan Shao embezzled the Central Plains and wanted to change the dynasty. In order to "support the Han Dynasty", Guo Jia must "borrow Jingzhou". Liu Biao obstructed him. This was the reason.
At that time, the situation would fall into turmoil and the world would be in panic. Guo Jia could do a lot of things while taking advantage of the chaos. Even if he would be criticized for attacking Jingzhou, it would not be too fierce.
Chapter completed!