"Since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has carried out comprehensive westernization and started the industrial revolution. Until today, Japan has entered the ranks of industrial countries and imperialism. However, compared with the old imperialism of Britain, France, Germany, the United States and Italy, Japan's
Imperialism is not worthy of its name and can be called a hollow imperialist country or a beggar imperialist country." Lu Ming said with a smile.
"Okay! The term beggar imperialist country is quite novel." Chen Mingshu laughed.
Chen Mingshu looked down on the Japanese and believed that the Japanese army only relied on aircraft and artillery to show off its power. Apart from these, the Japanese army's combat effectiveness was not necessarily great.
"Why I say this, let me tell you some data about Japan's domestic production, and everyone will understand."
Lu Ming took out a piece of paper from his pocket, which recorded the analysis data of the Japanese economy made by Sheng Youde and Sheng Muyi. He planned to talk about it one by one.
"Wait a minute, blackboard." Mr. Jiang suddenly said.
Lu Ming did not expect Mr. Jiang to be so thoughtful, and it seemed that he had placed great hopes on his explanation today.
Two tall guards walked onto the stage, brought over a blackboard, chalk and a chalk eraser, and then quickly walked off the stage.
Lu Ming understood that this was asking him to write all the numbers on the blackboard for everyone attending the meeting to review.
As Lu Ming spoke, he wrote Japan's steel production, coal production, aquatic products and grain production and other data line by line on the blackboard.
Next is Japan's annual fiscal revenue, the amount of exports and imports of goods each year, etc., and finally the military budget.
Lu Ming didn't know where Sheng Youde got these data. He just knew that the data must be true.
Data can speak. The numbers are connected together to represent what kind of country Japan is and what they are doing.
"It can be seen from these data that Japan's annual military expenditure has reached 40 to 50 percent of fiscal revenue, and in some years it is even higher. If any country's military expenditure reaches this proportion, there is only one word
You can describe it as a militancy." Lu Ming pointed at the data and said to everyone.
"Since it is a militancy, of course it is preparation for a big war and an all-out war." Chen Lilao spoke again.
"Little guy, didn't you just say that Japan cannot fight a full-scale war?" Minister Song asked with a smile.
Lu Ming looked at this young minister. In fact, he was not much older than himself. He said that he was a bit reluctant because of his elders, but he said that he was a bit older because of his peers.
"Mr. Minister, everyone, please look at this set of data. Japan's economic income and expenditure are now barely balanced, but this is just to maintain the current armament status. Although I am not a military expert or an economics expert, but I know a simple
The truth." Lu Ming drew a circle on the outside with chalk.
Deng Wenyi and Kang Ze talked for a while in the back, and then returned to their seats near the front. They were also attracted by Lu Ming's explanation.
"If Japan needs to spend 1 according to the current military expenditure, then to fight a local conflict with China, the amount of military expenditure Japan needs to increase is 2, then there will be a gap in Japan's fiscal expenditure. If this local conflict occurs
It can be solved quickly, and this gap can be barely made up through other methods." Lu Ming continued.
"If they really go to war with us for a long time, will they really not be able to survive?" asked a civilian official next to General Wenbai.
"The data tells us that if this local conflict cannot be effectively controlled, or out of control, even if it fights a long-term local war, Japan's military expenditure will exceed the budget by 3 to 4 times. In this case, Japan will
There will be a huge financial deficit, which will affect their established national policy of expanding the navy." Lu Ming explained.
"If Japan occupies Shanghai, Wuhan or similar cities and engages in a long-term local war with us, will it have such consequences?" A young officer in the back row stood up and asked.
"Yes, the consequence is that Japan no longer has the financial resources to build large surface combatants such as aircraft carriers, battleships, and cruisers, not to mention the modern design and manufacturing of its air force. Their ambition to dominate Asia will not be realized."
"With the combat capabilities of Japan's existing large surface combat ships, it will not hinder Japan's military operations in Asia, right?" a civilian official asked doubtfully.
"To deal with the weak countries in Asia, Japan's current military force can definitely dominate. However, please don't forget that Japan's old enemy, the Soviet Union, has been waiting for Japan to make a mistake. If Japan exceeds 3 to 4 times its military expenditure, its national strength will be
Overwhelmed, will the Soviet Union spare him?" Lu Ming actually sneered on the stage.
"What will be the consequences?" Deng Wenyi couldn't help but ask.
"Japan collapsed!" Lu Ming said decisively.
"What you mean is that from an economic point of view, it can be concluded that it is most cost-effective for Japan to fight a local, controllable, short-term war with us, so the possibility of a full-scale war is extremely small." General Wenbai said.
.
Lu Ming nodded, put down the chalk in his hand, and clapped his hands.
The people sitting below were all silent. Although those present were all important members of the party, government and military, few of them really understood the economy.
In China, there are mainly two types of people who understand economics: one is scholars engaged in international economic research, and the other is capitalists engaged in transnational operations.
Even Minister Song, because he was in charge of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of China and had the ability to raise money and borrow money overseas due to his family connections, he knew nothing about the real economy.
Of course Lu Ming doesn't understand economics, but behind him are two world-class economics experts.
"Little guy, do you think Japan can't make up for the loss of their military spending by invading our country and robbing our resources?" Chen Mingshu asked.
"General, launching an aggressive war to rob other countries' wealth and resources to make up for your own losses, or even increase your own country's wealth, is a previous war model. The last one to successfully implement this model was Japan's attack on us.
They won the Sino-Japanese War of 1898-1894 and received 400 million taels of silver in war compensation from our country, which was equivalent to four years of Japan’s fiscal revenue. This time they succeeded.”
"Why can't it work now?" Chen Mingshu continued to ask.
"During the Russo-Japanese War, the same imperialism and Japan's strategy of supporting war with war failed. Although they robbed Russia of its rights and interests in Northeast my country, they did not receive a single tael of war compensation. Because of this, Japan The war depleted the national treasury, and as a result, Japan almost launched a peasant revolution in the country."
Hearing the words "peasant revolution", the audience burst into laughter. They may think that the Communist Party is the peasant revolution.
"Let's take a look at the last European war (World War I). Britain, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Tsarist Russia fought a full-scale war throughout Europe. What was the result? France was almost in ruins.
Germany also had to choose humiliating surrender due to domestic economic collapse, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was completely disintegrated, and Tsarist Russia triggered the October Revolution due to economic turmoil. Even the world's largest power, Britain, is facing the disintegration of the colonial system.
edge."
"Modern war will indeed greatly weaken the vitality of the countries participating in the war." General Wenbai couldn't help but sigh.
Lu Ming continued: "Although these results are caused by many factors, one thing is fundamental. Whether it is the defeat of Germany, the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or the fall of Tsarist Russia, these are all related to the country's economy.
Crash related.”
"Although the economic collapse is caused by long-term overburden, the collapse itself is an instantaneous thing. I can understand this." Minister Song finally said something sincere.
"If Japan were to forcefully start a full-scale war now, their result would be like Germany and Tsarist Russia, with economic collapse, domestic revolution, disbandment of the army, and collapse of the government, which would even endanger the national system ruled by the Emperor of Japan. This is
It's a risk that Japan simply doesn't dare to take." Lu Ming's thinking has reached a new level, thanks to Teacher Frank.
"I know this. The Emperor's National Body is the lifeblood of all Japanese people, and no one dares to touch this." Chen Guolao finally spoke up.
"Their invasion of China can rob a lot of resources and wealth, but it is far from making up for their huge military expenditures. The oppression of the people at the bottom in Japan has reached a critical point. If the heavy burden of war is added to it, these people at the bottom will not be able to survive.
If you can't go on, you can only rise up and rebel, and that's when the Japanese Communist Party seizes power." Lu Ming slipped out of his words and accidentally revealed his own values.
As soon as Lu Ming finished speaking, Mr. Jiang suddenly applauded. The others felt a little confused, but they had no choice but to applaud along with him.