"Whether it's a good thing or a bad thing, it's hard to say right now. This is probably the beginning of a hurricane. I don't know where this hurricane will affect it, so I'm not too optimistic." Lu Ming sighed.
Lu Ming is no longer limited to the rebellion, but is thinking about the root cause of the rebellion and what changes this turmoil will bring to Japan.
The most critical thing is, to what extent will this change be reflected in Japan's foreign policy? Will militarism become more intense or restrained?
We are just taking a peek at the situation now, and we cannot draw any conclusions for the time being. We must wait until the rebellion subsides and all forces return to their respective positions before we can predict the future direction.
"Sir, you are thinking too much. I think as long as the news is bad for Japan, it should be good news. It doesn't take a lot of thought to think like this." Liu Qiwen said with a smile.
Lu Ming smiled bitterly, I guess most Chinese people have this mentality.
Indeed, what is detrimental to the enemy is beneficial to oneself, but Lu Ming feels that this rebellion is not good for Japan, and may be even worse for China.
Because the Japanese generals who strongly advocated the expansion of territory in East Asia completed the unification of military forces during this rebellion, Japan's wartime military system was not destroyed, but consolidated.
Lu Ming hoped that his worries were a false alarm, but it turned out that it accelerated the process of Japan's invasion of China and eventually led to the July 7th Incident breaking out in advance.
"Let me give you an analogy so you can understand. If you are facing a wolf and the wolf is suddenly injured, this may be a good thing or a bad thing for you, because the injured wolf will be even crazier and will fight to the death.
Fight, this is the character of the wolf." Lu Ming explained.
"You mean, this rebellion might make Japan crazy?" Liu Qiwen understood somewhat.
"This is what I'm worried about, but of course it's not the time to make a conclusion yet."
Lu Ming has been studying all Japanese intelligence in the past few years, not only political and military, but also civilian.
Lu Ming had always believed that the Japanese people did not like war and might even be opposed to war. However, after careful study, he was surprised to find that the Japanese people were the most warlike group of people.
This is of course related to Japan’s years of imperial education, and is also closely related to Japan’s economic situation.
In the era of stable economic development, the Japanese people's bellicosity was not very obvious, but after the economic crisis broke out, the situation changed dramatically.
Japan's fragile economic industry suffered a devastating blow during the crisis, and the living standards of the Japanese people plummeted, so the situation began to change.
Many people with extreme views, not only those soldiers who like to be militaristic, but also some theorists and literati, have begun to clamor for launching aggressive wars abroad to fill domestic fiscal deficits by snatching resources.
These people are very good at confusing and manipulating public opinion. The people at the bottom see little hope. Under the guidance of militarism, they gradually regard waging war as a way to revitalize Japan's economy and change their own destiny.
After the September 18th Incident, Japan seized the Northeast, which has the great plains that the Japanese dream of and the most fertile black soil in the world.
With vast forests and big rivers, but sparsely populated areas, the ecological beauty of the Northeast is fascinating.
Japan began to colonize the Northeast and established the so-called Agricultural Development Corps.
In fact, the Japanese began to immigrate to the Northeast when Marshal Zhang was still alive.
At that time, the Japanese wanted to use a peaceful method to buy land in the Northeast with money, and then let domestic farmers who had no land to farm farm in Northeast China, so as to alleviate the dilemma of domestic land shortage.
However, Marshal Zhang ostensibly agreed to various demands of the Japanese, but secretly used the tactic of procrastination. Officials in various localities below also obeyed and did not do practical things.
Various delays and obstacles made it impossible to implement Japan's plan to immigrate to the Northeast. In the end, it was stillborn and nothing was done.
Marshal Zhang was later bombed to death by the Kwantung Army in Huanggutun. This was completely the result of the Japanese military's embarrassment and anger.
On the 28th, Lu Ming spent the day feeling uneasy. After get off work, he locked himself in the office alone and started drafting a report.
Early on the morning of the 29th, Lu Ming ordered the Telecommunications Section to send the same telegram to the Nanjing Military Commission and to Mr. Frank.
Just after lunch, the red phone on Lu Ming's desk rang.
Lu Ming immediately picked up the phone and heard the voice of General Zhang Wenbai.
"Is it Lu Ming?" General Zhang asked.
"It's me, General Zhang." Lu Ming immediately stood up and stood at attention.
"I'm in the committee office. I just read the report you sent this morning. The committee praised you and said you have a keen sense of smell. You should pay close attention to this matter." General Zhang said.
"Thank you General Zhang for your kindness. My subordinates will definitely work hard and serve the country." Lu Ming said solemnly.
"Well, the committee wants to ask you a few more questions. Just answer them truthfully." General Zhang transferred the microphone.
"Is it Xiaolu? I just read your report. Your analysis of this mutiny is different from most people. Do you have any basis for it?" Mr. Jiang asked.
In the report written last night, Lu Ming made a preliminary analysis and prediction of the Japanese mutiny, and put forward his own opinions.
In this report, Lu Ming reminded the Military Committee to pay close attention to the domestic trends in Japan, especially the changes in public opinion. He believed that this mutiny was likely to trigger the early outbreak of the Sino-Japanese war.
Lu Ming mentioned to Mr. Jiang the dangerous signs of the spread of "populism" in Japan, believing that this would be a terrible signal to trigger war.
Mr. Jiang hummed, of course he knew what "populism" meant in Japan.
"Reporting to the committee, the situation in Tokyo is still unclear, and we have not figured out the ins and outs of the matter. Only after we understand the whole story, can I have more basis to prove my point of view."
"I heard that the rebellion has basically subsided. Please try to find out the truth of the incident as soon as possible. If you have further ideas, report to me at any time." Mr. Jiang said.
He was obviously shocked by Lu Ming's bold but somewhat pessimistic prediction, so he called specifically to inquire.
"Yes, appointment." Lu Ming said.
Mr. Jiang handed the phone to Zhang Wenbai again, and General Zhang lowered his voice and said: "Boy, I heard from Lao Sheng that you still want to go to Japan. I reminded you last time not to act blindly."
"Well, General Zhang, it's like this. I want to go to Japan as an assistant to Mr. Frank, the director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at Harvard University... I don't know if that's possible?"
"The commission just now told me that I should keep an eye on you. If you are not absolutely sure, you must not go to Japan without authorization." General Zhang said seriously.
"If possible, I will submit an application report to Mr. Frank and write an inspection report for him later. It won't cost them any money and I will write the report for them for free. This deal is guaranteed to be successful." Lu Ming said to himself.
Intend.
"Well, Lao Sheng told me that he is also considering paving the way for you to go to Japan. Let's wait until things are carefully prepared before making a decision, otherwise the committee will scold me for being incompetent." General Zhang laughed at himself.
"We will never embarrass General Zhang. Any actions will be reported to you in advance," Lu Ming said.
"Okay!" General Zhang Wenbai hung up the phone.
During the call, Lu Ming felt that Mr. Jiang was relatively calm, and General Zhang Wenbai also maintained his general demeanor, which showed that the Republic of China government was still mentally prepared for the Japanese mutiny.
Although the situation in some areas of North China is tense at present, other areas are still developing rapidly. Arsenals are stepping up their efforts to imitate and develop new weapons, and other processing plants are also producing in an intense and orderly manner.
If this development continues, in another twenty or thirty years, China's heavy industry and machinery industry will reach a certain scale, and its military strength will be greatly improved.
For the Republic of China government, the most important thing was to gain time for peace, which was why the pro-Japanese faction within the government gradually gained the upper hand.
Because the pro-Japanese faction advocates seeking peace and development at all costs and never engaging in military conflict with the other side when the enemy is strong and we are weak.
According to the government's assessment, China and Japan will not break out into a full-scale war within ten years, and most people believe that they can live a peaceful life for at least five years.
Pro-Japanese people even believe that it is possible to exchange for long-term peace through economic cooperation. They believe that as long as they get enough benefits, Japan will give up the war.
Now Lu Ming has written such a report, believing that the war may break out early. You can imagine what kind of response this view will cause in the Nanjing Military Commission.
Lu Ming originally believed that war would not break out in the near future. This was a conclusion reached by studying Japan's domestic political and economic development trends.
But after the sudden mutiny, he changed his mind and came to a conclusion contrary to his original view.
This mutiny accelerated the pace of Japan's external expansion. The conclusion Lu Ming came to was more of a hunch than the result of analysis.
Other SIS experts, including experienced Soviet experts, took a very different view.
Everyone believes that this mutiny is unprecedentedly good for China, and Japan's domestic turmoil will definitely affect their foreign expansion policy. This is the simplest reason.
The concrete evidence is that the Japanese navy put pressure on the army. The Kwantung Army military police commander Hideki Tojo sent a telegram to the country immediately after the mutiny, advocating resolute and severe suppression of the rebels.
This shows from the side that the opinions of the Kwantung Army and the Japanese military headquarters are also different. The Japanese military is not of the same mind. How can it be disadvantageous to China?
If this situation continues, a civil war between the army and navy may occur in Japan, and the main force of the Kwantung Army may be transferred back to the country to participate in the war.
In this case, Japan may fall into a civil war that lasts for several years, and Japan's political system will also be destroyed in the civil war.
Regarding these optimistic predictions, Lu Ming could only remain vigilant and skeptical. Of course he hoped that the experts' predictions would come true, but his personal analysis concluded that it was exactly the opposite.
Everyone's opinions were predictions, and Lu Ming could not provide any decent evidence to convince the experts of the Intelligence Department, so he could only report both analyzes and predictions to Nanjing.