Wu Siyuan originally had little interest in the real estate industry.
Obviously, the real estate industry has been hyped up to this point, and the bubble has become too big. Although the authorities have always wanted to bring real estate to a soft landing, judging from the current situation, the possibility of a hard landing is becoming more and more likely.
Anyone with a discerning eye knows that the real estate industry cannot grow beyond the tail of a rabbit.
How could Wu Siyuan use his free money to destroy this industry?
Does Wu Siyuan really think he has too much money?
However, as the level of the organizations that came to visit became higher and higher, and more and more leaders came to Chaoqun Group for symposiums and vaguely expressed some ideas, Wu Siyuan discovered that the higher-ups did not pay ordinary attention to real estate.
Wu Siyuan asked [Four-Armed King Kong] to get information related to domestic real estate. After taking a look, he realized why the higher-ups attached so much importance to the real estate industry.
Land finance is secondary.
The more important reason is employment.
To exaggerate, the real estate-related industrial chain supports more than 300 million people in the country.
The domestic population is about 1.4 billion, and more than one-fifth of the population relies on the real estate-related industry chain for a living.
As long as buildings are made of reinforced concrete, such as bridges, high-rise buildings, roads, etc., they all belong to the real estate industry, which is the so-called civil engineering industry.
According to information released by the Bureau of Statistics in 2018, the number of direct employees in the real estate and construction industries totaled 70.724 million, accounting for 1/19 of the national population at that time.
If commercial real estate is unsustainable, the vast majority of the more than 70 million people will be laid off. Relying on large-scale infrastructure and affordable housing can support up to 18 million people, or even less.
Calculated based on a group of families (2-3 people), the total population indirectly involved in real estate may be around 250 to 300 million people.
Real estate drives more than 500 industries and more than 2,000 majors.
The upstream industries involve steel, non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, machinery and equipment such as Sany Heavy Industry, chemicals such as petrochemicals, plastics, etc.
The midstream industry mainly includes primary land development and infrastructure construction, building materials, construction and decoration industries, as well as transportation, finance and intermediary services.
The downstream industries involve home appliances, light manufacturing, decoration, public utilities such as airports, high-speed rail, electricity, water, gas and other industries.
It is no exaggeration to say that real estate can be said to be the mother of all industries in the country.
Real estate has developed rapidly in China for 20 years. During this period, it has built a very long industrial chain centered on itself. Once the industrial chain suddenly breaks, the impact will be unimaginable.
It’s not that the higher-ups don’t know that too-big-to-fail real estate has already hijacked the national economy. They just want to loosen the shackles, but it will take time.
But under the current circumstances, it is increasingly difficult for China to trade time for space in the real estate industry.
Is this why, at the beginning, only a few places approached [Chaoqun Group] to intervene in the local land development market, but later the levels of institutions involved became higher and higher?
There is no other reason.
At the current stage of development, the real estate industry is too important.
If real estate makes a hard landing, the impact on the economy will be tsunami-level.
It's not like this has never happened.
In 1992, a real estate bubble and hard landing occurred in Qiong Province.
In early 1992, the real estate market in Qiong Province suddenly heated up, and a large amount of money was invested in real estate. At its peak, more than 20,000 real estate companies appeared on this island with a population of less than 6.558 million.
The government, banks, and developers have formed a tight iron triangle. Some houses have been sold several times while they are still in the design drawing stage.
These companies are like playing "Drumming and Passing the Flower", where each player wants to pass the "flower" in his hand to the next person before the game is over.
Of course you can't play this kind of game forever.
In June 1993, the higher authorities announced the termination of real estate company bosses and full control of bank funds entering the real estate industry.
The booming real estate boom in Qiong Province was suddenly wiped out. Developers fled or went bankrupt one after another. Many banks' non-performing loan ratios reached over 60%.
Starting in 1999, it took Qiong Province nearly seven years to deal with the backlog of real estate projects.
This is still the impact of real estate in one province.
It took seven years to digest it.
But what if it’s nationwide?
No one dares to imagine it.
But the history of Japan can be used as a reference.
After the Plaza Accord, Japan's exchange rate skyrocketed and the property market plummeted. Many people's wealth was wiped out overnight, and they owed huge debts that they could not repay. They eventually went to power. As a result, Japan did not develop for thirty years and was called a lost country.
Thirty years, thirty years without desire, is a lonely society of despair.
After Wu Siyuan learned about it, he felt that he could not follow the old path of Japan.
Indeed, under the current circumstances, real estate cannot fail.
However, [Chaoqun Group] entered the real estate industry, obtained loans from banks, and then purchased land for various localities to maintain local land finance.
But this is treating the symptoms rather than the root cause.
If the prices of commercial buildings or office buildings built by [Chaoqun Group] remain high, there will be no support from users.
People have already had six of their wallets emptied, so we can’t let people’s six provident fund accounts be used as well.
Confidence is the most important thing.
The built properties cannot be sold, and if they are left there, they will suffer a huge loss.
[Chaoqun Group] has a lot of money, so there will be no problem of running out of money to start construction.
In this case, [Super Group] can last for a long time.
But it makes no sense.
[Chaoqun Group] A large amount of meaningless funds are deposited here, which is just a huge waste.
If you want to sell your house, you can’t let the higher-ups come up with another wave of [price increases to remove inventory].
Yes.
Didn't see it.
The house cannot be sold at a reduced price.
But as long as the price of houses increases, and people in society think that the price of houses will increase, then how many houses can be sold.
But I came here once before [price increase to remove inventory]!
Now do it again.
I won’t say whether it has any effect.
But the impact on young people in society will be even more severe.
Young people who do not have a house will not get the blessing of their mother-in-law when they get married.
And the social workers who earn a salary of several thousand yuan a month don't have much money left on hand after taking care of food, drink, housing and transportation.
The remaining money.
If you have a girlfriend, you should use it on various festivals and newly created festivals - for example, the first cup of milk tea in autumn.
If you don’t have a boyfriend, you can go on all kinds of soul and body trips, as well as a wide variety of cosmetics and clothing, which are not cheap.
How many people are rich in the end?
Therefore, the higher the housing prices, the lower the social marriage rate, the higher the divorce rate, and the birth rate has dropped to the point where we dare not show it [to people]!
In this case, any movement in house prices can have a huge impact on the whole body.