Chapter 242 You Don't Understand the Basic Principles of Statistics
Chapter 242 You don’t understand the basic principles of statistics
Being scored at the last second before half-time was undoubtedly a real fatal blow to Hyypia and Leverkusen.
What finally broke the deadlock was still the most powerful defense-breaking tool in football - set kicks!
Such a result will affect their deployment in the second half and the team's mentality in the second half.
This also means that their painstaking defensive counterattack tactics have been cracked by Hamburg.
Because with the ball in hand, Hamburg will not be in a hurry to press the formation again. They can even easily drop the ball in their own half, wait for Leverkusen players to grab it, and then open up the formation's space.
In the visiting team's locker room at halftime, Pan Yi also said this to the players:
"Now that we are in the lead, we must pay attention to controlling the rhythm of the game. We don't need to press so tightly, but we still need to firmly control the midfield, and we still need to pay attention to the counterattack of the opponent's forward."
"Their defensive formation is actually very good. If it weren't for De Bruyne's flash of inspiration, they might not be able to break through their defense. So don't be careless in the second half. If they don't press, we don't need to press."
Too deep."
"Almost in the second half, I will bring on Mitrovic to strengthen the high-point attack, and our midfielders will also need to strengthen long-range shots. This is a regular strategy when facing the bus, so I won't say more."
"In short, win this game and let Leverkusen compete for fourth place!..."
As for the home team, Hyypia decided to continue the tactics of the first half after careful consideration.
He had watched Ajax's away game against Hamburg. De Boer failed to calm down when his team was falling behind, and directly let the team turn from defense to offense. As a result, Hamburg was instantly defeated.
He needs to learn this lesson.
Continue to hold on and fight back with Hamburg!
Of course, some changes also need to be made in the rhythm of the game.
That is to increase the pressure and fighting intensity in the midfield and compete with the Hamburg Bayonet!
Since my skills are not as good as yours, I will compete with you on physical fitness and willpower. In fact, I will compete on consumption.
This is actually the strategy used by many weak teams when they encounter strong teams. Now Hyypia has put himself in the position of the weak team.
And when the opponent collapses, Leverkusen's opportunity will come.
It’s just that Hyypia knows that Hamburg is not a fuel-efficient lamp. Pan Yi has always attached great importance to physical fitness. It is impossible for Leverkusen to exhaust their physical fitness without paying the price.
So Hyypia asked Leverkusen's players to run to death in the second half!
He once saw a media statistics. In the Bundesliga this season's ranking of the total running distance of individual players, several of the top players were players from Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund.
Hamburg's players are ranked relatively low.
This gave Hyypia, who had never used such "high-tech data" to judge situations, confidence.
This shows that Leverkusen should be stronger than Hamburg in terms of players' personal physical fitness!
Therefore, he wants to take advantage of this team's strength to completely bring down Hamburg.
…
The time suddenly entered 70 minutes.
In the 25 minutes after the start of the second half, the two sides mainly fought near the center circle and did not create many shooting opportunities.
Vardy had a chance to shoot from the corner of the penalty area, but unfortunately he could not suppress the ball and the ball was slightly higher than the crossbar by a few centimeters.
Leverkusen once almost equalized the game with the help of a corner kick, but unfortunately Kruse flew over the goalkeeper and headed the ball wide. This proves that this team's lack of shooting skills is the main culprit that has led to their current decline in rankings.
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Of course, it is undeniable that Leverkusen, who was lagging behind, still showed full resilience.
They still withstood Hamburg's strong attack and were able to take advantage of limited opportunities to create threats.
And everyone can see that the consumption of both sides is really great now, and the players on the field are sweating profusely.
This is true for Leverkusen, and it is true for Hamburg.
But the players on both sides are still continuing and persevering.
In contrast, Hamburg's players seemed to be more relaxed, and their steps when running were obviously lighter than those of Leverkusen's players.
This made Hyypia on the sidelines feel slightly inappropriate.
Under normal circumstances, Leverkusen's current defensive formation does not require players to do too many interspersed runs, but only requires a careful overall formation, so the physical energy consumption should be lower than that of Hamburg.
After all, Hamburg has to defend and find ways to change positions and move in. Obviously, there are more things to do on the court and the consumption will be greater.
But why do you feel that your players can't outrun the Hamburg people?
At this time, Pan Yi also began to change people.
Mitrovic enters, Vardy exits.
Makoto Hasebe on top, Casemiro off.
Paulinho on, De Bruyne off.
Among these substitutions, except that Mitrovic came on to improve the high point and fulcrum ability of the frontcourt, the other two were to replace players with relatively high physical exertion and replace them with fresh forces.
In Pan Yi's 433 formation, based on the same game time, the order of positions from maximum to minimum physical energy consumption should be:
1. Two central midfielders: an all-around midfielder and a pseudo-winger, which are the positions Kante and De Bruyne currently play. Since they often have to play a linking role, they have to do both offense and defense personally, and the consumption is naturally huge.
of.
2. The defensive midfielder is the defensive midfielder in the middle. Casemiro's main task is to defend, but he can also take care of inserting, which consumes a lot of money.
3. Two wingers, that is, double inside forwards. Son Heung-min and Salah are the main hot spots on both sides of the frontcourt. They need to frequently break through with the ball and use speed to intervene at high speed to receive passes from teammates. In addition, they must pressure the opponent's defender.
Physical exertion is naturally inevitable.
4. Two full-backs. Similar to wingers, but after all, Robertson and Carvajal can still have "rest moments" such as upper left but not upper right, upper right but not upper left, and the consumption is smaller than that of wingers.
5. Center. Mainly responsible for fighting for the top and grabbing points in the penalty area, as well as pressing the central defender. Since the running distance is less than that of the wing, the consumption will be less.
6. Two central defenders. Needless to say, they must run the least in the game.
7. Goalkeeper. Even Neuer can’t run over 10,000 meters, right?
Therefore, when making substitutions, in addition to some necessary tactical purposes, Pan Yi gives priority to midfielders and wingers, which can ensure the normal operation of the team's tactics.
After all, when players' physical strength decreases, it will affect the execution of tactics.
Of course, this time Pan Yi replaced Casemiro and De Bruyne instead of Kante, purely because Kante's physical fitness is so good!
He's still running around the field now.
Shortly after Pan Yi made the substitution, the live TV camera was shown to the sidelines.
I found Hyypia walking around in the home team's command area a little restlessly.
He couldn't hide his anxiety and apprehension.
The game is approaching 80 minutes, which is the final stage, but the situation on the field is still so stalemate, and even Hamburg seems to be getting better and better!
What if you agree to use up all of them before attacking your opponent?
Did we agree that our players can run better than them?
How is this going?
Is the data wrong?
…
The data is of course correct. In terms of total personal running distance, Leverkusen players are indeed ranked higher than Hamburg players.
However, Hyypia just doesn't understand the basic principles of statistics.
All he sees is personal rankings.
And if he looks at the team's running data, he will find that Hamburg is far ahead!
Pan Yi's rotation range this season is amazing.
Like the high-consuming positions mentioned above, Pan Yi almost never lets players play two or three games in a row, and often replaces them to rest during games when the overall situation has been decided.
Moreover, there are some players who only play more time in important matches of the Champions League, but play less in the league.
Under such circumstances, if you compare the total running distance of individuals, how can Hamburg compare to other teams?
Even when comparing players' average running distance per game, Hamburg players do not necessarily have an advantage.
But if you go a little more detailed and compare the players' runs per unit time, then the Hamburg players will soon dominate the list!
Of course, no one would think so.
But the team's running data can tell it all.
The difference in these data shows how successful Pan Yi was in rotation.
There are a total of 26 players in the first team, and everyone has played, and not only in one or two games, or in garbage time, you name it.
Even those with the fewest chances to play have played at least three or four times, and have recorded goals and assists.
The excellent physical fitness of Hamburg players, tempered by Pintus, coupled with the "even rain and dew" rotation policy, has made Hamburg capable of operating on three fronts this season. The two can be said to complement each other.
In contrast, although Leverkusen's players can be considered running, they will be worn down by the long double matches a week.
Competing consumption with burgers? Overthinking!
…
"Goallllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!"
"In the 90th minute of the game, Hamburg scored again!"
"This time, Hamburg took advantage of Leverkusen's all-out pressure and the empty defense to make a beautiful counterattack."
"Paulinho ran with the ball from the midfield, took it to the front of the penalty area, and then distributed it to the right. Salah succeeded in pushing the ball!"
"This goal completely killed the game!"
"Leverkusen defended the entire game, but conceded a goal at the end of each half, and ultimately lost at home!"
In fact, the arrival of this goal should be expected.
When Hyypia realized that his players might not be able to defeat Hamburg and that there was not much game time left, he had no choice but to let his players launch a final counterattack.
But now, how can Leverkusen drag their exhausted bodies after running for a whole game and then launch an attack on the Hamburg position that is full of fighting spirit?
Instead, his originally tight defense line became a little loose.
Hamburg took advantage of this opportunity and launched an offensive by the running maniac Violent Bird, which resulted in a goal.
0:2, this score can already allow Hamburg players to celebrate the victory in advance.
…
At the post-match press conference, Leverkusen coach Hyypia finally admitted defeat.
He said: "I have to congratulate Hamburg. They are indeed the better team. I also admit that Hamburg will be the most powerful contender for the Bundesliga championship this season!"
Later, Hyypia also said that it is not time for Leverkusen to give up yet.
As long as the team performs better from top to bottom, I believe there will be a chance to reverse the situation and get back to the forefront.
Because the league is not halfway through yet, it is too early to talk about giving up the championship. The 9-point gap is indeed very large, but it is not so large that it is completely despairing.
There are too many teams that perform well in the early stages of the league but collapse in the later stages, especially in the Bundesliga. There are countless such examples.
However, having Hyypia say such words in public is enough to prove that after Hamburg won this game, Hyypia was truly convinced of Pan Yi.
Even such a tough defense failed to prevent Hamburg from scoring. Hyypia really has no tricks left!
Pan Yi first praised the players' excellent performance and talked about the goal at the end of the first half:
"We did a great job with the use of set pieces. The boys were very smart, and the quick free kick goal in the first half was based on some experience from normal games."
"Actually, this kind of free kick is not something we have practiced in training, but comes from the players' own wisdom. De Bruyne even remembered to consult the referee before taking the penalty kick to prevent the quick goal from being disallowed.
"
"It can be seen that it was our clever mind, rich experience and on-the-spot decisions that allowed us to find a breakthrough to crack the opponent's secret defense, thus completely changing the situation on the field!"
"I am very lucky to have such a group of outstanding players, and it is my honor to coach them!"
Pan Yi then mentioned that this game will be an important node, and winning against Leverkusen will make Hamburg more confident.
"It fully proves that the rotation system we have adhered to from the beginning of the season to the present, the tactical strategies adopted, and the efforts and sweat put in by all of us are all worth it!"
"Goals scored at the last moment of the two halves also show that our players' attention has been maintained and their physical condition has been maintained very well."
"These are very excellent qualities. And these qualities can take us further!"
…
The day after the game, all major media in Germany were also rushing to praise Hamburg's performance.
In addition to Leverkusen's loss to Hamburg, which widened the points gap, Dortmund also lost 1:2 to Wolfsburg in an away game this round! There is already a 6-point gap between them and Hamburg.
Only the powerful Bayern defeated Augsburg 3-0 at home and still followed Hamburg.
But compared with the difficulty of Hamburg's away victory over Leverkusen, Bayern's victory seems not worth mentioning.
"Hamburg Morning Post" said, "From this game, it is not difficult for us to see that Hamburg is the most champion team in the Bundesliga so far this season! The traditional Bundesliga team Leverkusen is facing
When eating hamburgers, she is like a little daughter-in-law who can be beaten or scolded without daring to fart!"
"Bild" said, "Whether it was the process or the result of this game, Hamburg's performance was convincing. Everyone must admit that they are indeed the strongest contender for the Bundesliga championship this season."
Even the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", which has never been associated with Hamburg, has to admit this time that this "Northern King" may really be as famous as the "Southern King". For Bayern Munich, this team comes from the north.
The team will become a real threat again!
This is not only an affirmation of Hamburg, but also an affirmation of Pan Yi.
Even bookmakers have revised their Bundesliga winning odds this season.
Now Hamburg's winning odds have begun to leave Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen behind, closely approaching Bayern Munich, ranking second.
Although this represents the betting company's optimism, it also shows that they still believe that the traditional powerhouse Bayern still has a chance to overtake Hamburg in the subsequent schedule and continue to top the Bundesliga!
…
After playing Leverkusen, Hamburg finally got a chance to breathe and got more than a week of rest.
Pan Yi gave the entire team two days off at once, which can be regarded as a reward for their recent outstanding performance.
For Hamburg players with high morale and good professional attitudes, a two-day holiday will not affect their condition.
Then they faced the challenge of Hannover 96 at home.
Hamburg also won this game very easily.
Only eight minutes into the game, Wu Lei grabbed a point in the penalty area for Hamburg and hit a powerful volley with his left foot. The ball flew straight to the lower left corner of the goal.
Before the end of the first half, Vardy scored another victory, 2:0.
After changing sides in the second half, Robertson stepped forward with an assist and hit a long shot to expand the score to 3:0, basically killing the suspense of the game.
Hannover 96 only scored a face-saving goal in stoppage time by Hungarian international Justi.
In the end, Hamburg defeated Hannover 96 3:1 at home.
But this time the focus of German media and fans is not on Hamburg.
Because on the next day, the Bundesliga ushered in this season's national derby, Dortmund faced Bayern Munich!
This is also the first head-to-head confrontation between Klopp and Guardiola in the Bundesliga.
Pan Yi also specially took Inzaghi and Nargelsmann to the stands of the Westfalenstadion to watch the game together.
After all, these two teams, especially Bayern, are the absolute stumbling blocks on Hamburg's road to winning the championship!
Watching their games live is always helpful in analyzing their tactics and player characteristics.
Besides, aside from studying the opponent, this exciting duel alone is worth the visit of "fan" Pan Yi!
The Westfalenstadion was packed today, with more than 80,000 fans waving yellow flags and holding up yellow and black scarves, making the atmosphere here look like a war.
The battle between the two famous coaches is also very interesting.
Muller and Robben both played as wide midfielders, and what is even more surprising is that Lahm also stood in the midfield position and acted as a central midfielder.
It can be said that this is another work of Guashuai's whole life.
Forward: Mandzukic.
Midfielder: Muller, Kroos, Lahm, Robben.
Defensive midfielder: Javi Martinez.
Defenders: Alaba, Dante, Boateng, Rafinha.
Goalkeeper: Neuer.
Seeing this starting list, Pan Yi smiled: "As expected of Gua Shuai, he can come up with something new every time!"
Nagelsmann and Inzaghi also nodded.
Who says it's not?
Everyone thought that Guardiola would fight against Klopp and use his best 4-3-3 formation to challenge Dortmund, but now he has chosen a more defensive formation to play.
Moreover, by placing the more defensively capable Lahm in the middle of the midfield and abandoning the more "conventional" Thiago, Gotze and others, I feel that Guardiola needs to implement his defensive philosophy to the end.
But the question is, are these Bayern players familiar with this formation?
It is true that Lahm has played as a defensive midfielder, but now he has been moved to a position similar to that of an attacking midfielder. Is it appropriate?
And the fact is...
It's quite familiar and appropriate.
Throughout the game, Bayern played steadily and did not give Dortmund too many chances.
Bayern's strength only started in the second half.
At 55 minutes, Guardiola made his first substitution, with Gotze replacing Mandzukic.
Then Thiago came on and replaced Boateng!
These two somewhat confusing substitutions worked.
Gotze scored the goal of his old club with his first touch of the ball after coming on, giving Bayern an away lead over Dortmund.
Then Robben and Muller also scored one after another. In the end, Bayern defeated Dortmund 3:0!
…
"This is truly a tactical victory."
After watching the game, Inzaghi couldn't help but praise him loudly.
Pan Yi also nodded in agreement. At the same time, he was also pleased that Inzaghi could now see the thoughts of these famous coaches.
Bayern's victory was due to Guardiola's adjustments in the second half.
After they consumed more of Dortmund's physical energy and energy in the first half, they replaced center Mandzukic and center back Boateng, but replaced them with two midfielders and played without a striker.
At this time, the positions of the players in Bayern's original formation also changed.
Midfielder Javi Martinez dropped back more and was almost a new central defender.
And Lahm came to Martinez's position to play as a single defensive midfielder.
In front of Lahm, five players including Muller, Kroos, Robben, Thiago, and Gotze used their skillful skills and coordination to firmly control the midfield and began to launch a counterattack against Dortmund's hinterland.
Bayern's first goal came after Robben, Thiago, Gotze and others made several exquisite cooperations, and Gotze broke into the penalty area and scored easily.
And once the first goal is scored, it will not be too late for Bayern to score subsequent goals.
At this time, Klopp had not yet reacted to Bayern's sudden change of formation, nor could he make a timely response.
At least at this time, there is still a certain gap between Klopp and Guardiola!
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