"According to the historical process, Cao Cao massacred Xuzhou this year. Zhang Miao, the leader of Chen Gong in the rear, suddenly betrayed and welcomed Lu Bu into Yanzhou. The two sides fought a war. It was not until next year that Cao Cao defeated Lu Bu and recaptured Yanzhou."
"In other words, Cao Cao will be at his weakest for a long time from this year to next year. If we attack him at this time, it is very likely that Cao Cao will be eliminated."
"But I can't say for sure. I still have too little information. I don't know how many people Lu Bu has, how many people Cao Cao has, and what their current situation is. But at least I know that Xuzhou's current situation is very bad."
Shen Chen deduced in his mind, although he felt that if he could give Tao Qian advice while Cao and Lu were fighting in Yanzhou, and let him send someone to stab Cao Cao in the back, the situation in the world might become very different.
But he didn't know the current number of soldiers and horses, the food and fodder situation, and the current situation of Cao Cao and Lu Bu, so it was difficult to directly deduce it. Xuzhou was too weak, and Tao Qian didn't have much strength.
Therefore, if Lu Bu's strength is not strong, and Tao Qian's troops join them, he will be easily eliminated by Cao Cao.
At that time, Yuan Shu, who was planning to attack Xuzhou this year, would easily capture Xuzhou. At that time, history would only develop in a worse direction.
Thinking of this, Shen Chen decided to analyze and deduce the strengths of Cao Cao and Lu Bu.
He remembered that when he was in Xuzhou, Tao Qian's military strength reached 40,000 to 50,000 at its peak, and Cao Cao's military strength would never be weaker than Tao Qian's, because he captured one million Qingzhou Yellow Turbans and obtained 300,000 Qingzhou Yellow Turbans. To reduce the number of soldiers, choose the best among them, and there should be at least 40,000 to 50,000 people.
In the Battle of Pengcheng, Cao Cao and Tao Qian had almost the same military strength. As a result, Tao Qian's army was almost wiped out in a big battle. Cao Cao should also have suffered some losses, so it is more reasonable to estimate Cao Cao's total military strength at about 40,000.
What about Lu Bu?
Lu Bu escaped from Yuan Shao, and he must have only the trapped camp and some cavalry followers around him. There should only be a few thousand people in full force, or maybe not even that many.
His main military strength should come from Zhang Miao, and Zhang Miao was the prefect of Chenliu, and his military strength could not exceed that of Cao Cao, the shepherd of Yanzhou.
Even if it is calculated as too much, with a maximum of 20,000 people, Lu Bu's strength is probably only half of Cao Cao's.
I remember that in history, Cao Cao was defeated first and then won. When he was in Puyang, he was defeated by Lu Bu first, and then the two sides were in a stalemate for a hundred days. Finally, they each retreated due to severe drought.
Lu Bu retreated to the Shanyang and Jiyin areas, while Cao Cao retreated to the Dongping Kingdom. It was during this period that Cao Cao was so depressed that he almost sent his family to Yuan Shaona as hostages.
But what caused Cao Cao's downfall was not the lack of soldiers and horses, but the lack of food and grass.
It was Cao Cao who asked Yuan Shao to give him some food. Yuan Shao used this to blackmail Cao Cao and let him move his family to Yecheng. Finally, Cheng Yu dissuaded him and offered a plan to use human breasts as army food, which reluctantly helped Cao Cao survive this disaster.
This also shows from the side that Cao Cao has more troops than Lu Bu.
Because Cao Cao was attacked from behind during his eastern expedition against Tao Qian. In order to deal with Tao Qian, he must have prepared more food and grass. As a result, during the stalemate with Lu Bu, Cao Cao ran out of food first, which means that Cao Cao's soldiers ran out of food quickly.
Lu Bu definitely didn't bring much food with him when he escaped from Yuan Shaona, and the food and grass for Cao Cao's eastward expedition to Tao Qian and Yanzhou must have been concentrated in his hands. As a result, Lu Bu was still able to hold a stalemate with Cao Cao for a hundred days after arriving in Yanzhou, which is enough to prove Lu Bu's military strength. There are indeed many fewer horses than Cao Cao.
If calculated in this way, then Cao Cao's military strength is about 40,000, and food is relatively scarce.
Lu Bu's army was able to kill 20,000 people. Considering that he was able to defeat Liu Bei who had about 10,000 soldiers later, the total army strength was probably between 10,000 and 20,000.
It is difficult for such a force to compete with Cao Cao. The early battle with Cao Cao in Puyang was won because Cao Cao was anxious because of the loss in Yanzhou and made a mistake in command, and was defeated by Lu Bu's cavalry.
Later, when Cao Cao slowed down, he slowly made plans and finally recaptured Yanzhou, which also proved this point.
So if Liu Bei takes Xuzhou, can he attack Cao Cao at this time, and then take advantage of the situation to seize Yanzhou, go out to the west to greet Emperor Xian, and threaten the emperor to order the princes?
The answer is impossible.
Putting aside the fact that Liu Bei's strength is incomparable to Cao Cao's, Lu Bu's military strength is stronger than his. If Liu Bei were to sneak attack Cao Cao now, he would be dead.
As the saying goes, the prerequisite for a fisherman to profit from a fight between a snipe and a clam is that the second child and the third child fight, and the boss profits.
If the boss fights with the second child, the third child will definitely die.
What's more, there is a person next to the third child who is more powerful than the boss and the second child, who is eyeing him, making it even more impossible to profit from it.
Perhaps Liu Bei's army left Xuzhou and went north to attack Dongping Kingdom, and Yuan Shu captured Xuzhou.
So no matter how you think about it, Liu Bei is actually facing a dead end in Xuzhou.
That is, he does not have the strength to go to Yanzhou to cause trouble. When the fight between Cao Cao and Lu Bu is over, Lu Bu is driven out of Yanzhou like a lost dog, and history will repeat itself.
"Liu Bei's strength is still too weak, and it is impossible to do anything from it."
"If this is the plot in a novel, maybe relying on the imagination of novelists can turn things around for Liu Bei."
"But this is reality. The real problem is that the enemy is very powerful. It is impossible for Liu Bei to get involved in the battle for Henan. Even if the weak defeats the strong, it is impossible to defeat three powerful enemies at the same time!"
"So the current situation is no longer something I can change. Being powerless, I can only follow history and observe from the sidelines instead of interfering."
After Shen Chen deduced all the possibilities, he found that the probability of Liu Bei being able to get ahead in Henan was infinitely close to zero, making it almost impossible to achieve.
The situation Liu Bei faced was too difficult.
Yuan Shu's army numbered more than 100,000, Cao Cao's army numbered 40,000 to 50,000, and even Lu Bu had 10,000 or 20,000.
Even if Liu Bei took over Tao Qian's power, he would only have at most 10,000 men. Among them, Cao Bao and Xu Dan were still two hidden dangers. His direct troops did not exceed 3,000. With just this few men, how could he take the lead in fighting the princes of Henan?
Xuzhou Mu sounds good, but in reality it only has a title. Four of the five counties do not obey orders, and one of them was completely slaughtered by Cao Cao, leaving almost no room for development.
This shows that Xuzhou has become a dilemma and it is useless for anyone to come.
After analyzing this point, there is only one way in front of Shen Chen - to leave the war quagmire of Henan and wait for future changes.
It just so happens that in twelve years he will grow up and be crowned a man, and by then Liu Bei will also face the Battle of Chibi.
If we can plan well in the future, things may turn around in other ways.
After thinking about this, Shen Chen got up from the bed.
It was already dusk, the sun was gradually setting, and the afterglow of sunset still illuminated the earth, bringing people the last glimmer of light.
While it was still dark, he went to the kitchen and poured a bowl of water, intending to swallow the grain cakes with the water so that he could get up early tomorrow and go to the clan to plan the migration.
As a result, there was a sudden knock on the door at this time. When they went to the front yard, they saw that it was their next door neighbor, Aunt Seven, calling them.
"His third uncle, his third uncle?"
Aunt Seven shouted.
Shen Chen opened the door and said, "Aunt Qi, what's wrong?"
When Aunt Seven saw Shen Chen, she immediately smiled and said, "It's Ah Chen. Where are your parents?"
"Aweng and grandma have all gone to the ancestral hall. The clan elders over there are selecting clan members to protect the clan members when they move south. They should go and take a look."
Shen Chen replied.
Aunt Qi then said: "Then I will ask Ah Tao to call them back later. We have killed two chickens and come over to eat together."
Killed two chickens?
Shen Chen was very surprised: "Aunt Qi, why did you suddenly kill the chicken?"
The seventh aunt's family and the Shen Chen family are relatively close relatives. Shen Chen's father, Shen Zhen, and the seventh uncle, Shen Min, are cousins. Among this generation, Shen Zhen ranks third and Shen Min ranks seventh. The two families usually get along well. Not bad, we come and go quite frequently.
But no matter how good the relationship is, it is rare to kill chickens to entertain neighbors. After all, chickens are already a very important commodity in ordinary civilian homes, second only to cattle and sheep. They are usually used to lay eggs and are not slaughtered.
For example, Shen Chen's family only raises two chickens. Although it is not as many as Shen Min's family who raises more than 30 chickens, they are usually treated as treasures and taken care of.
Aunt Qi forced a smile and said: "You also know the way the world is, aren't we going to move south soon? There are too many chickens and it's hard to carry them with you. Your uncle Qi wants to sell all the chickens at home and just keep two to lay eggs. In exchange for some grain, the price is very low whether in the clan or in other villages. Now grain is more expensive than chickens, so I might as well kill myself to eat."
"Oh, it turns out that it is really difficult to survive in this world."
Shen Chen understood the reason, sighed and reassured: "But please take it easy, Aunt Qi. Although moving to the south means being under someone else's care, it is better than losing your life. Everything will pass, and there will still be days to come."
"I hope so."
Aunt Qi's face didn't look very good either, and she waved to Shen Chen: "The chicken will be cooked soon. Ah Chenzhen will come over later. I'll call Ah Tao to call your parents back."
"good."
Shen Chen nodded and watched Aunt Qi leave.
Now the entire clan is basically disposing of their property, selling whatever they can't take with them at low prices, and pooling their property to purchase mules and horses, vehicles, grain, weapons and other daily necessities.
The power of an individual seems so small and humble in the face of the entire era. If it were not for Shen Chen, the Deng and Shen families might not have suffered the fate of being massacred.
But even if they escaped the massacre, it would still be difficult for them to move thousands of kilometers from Yancheng, Linyi, Shandong, to Xiangyang, Hubei, relying on their own strength in this era of underdeveloped transportation.
Not to mention that there is not enough food reserves, you will probably starve to death along the way. Just say that along the way, all kinds of bandits are passing by like combs, and soldiers are passing by like gratings. If you are alone, you may even be in danger of being raped by adults.
Because this is a terrible world. Not only Cao Cao is cannibalizing people, but many deserters from the defeated princes, bandits who are robbing their homes, and helpless refugees are killing people and eating meat.
It's just that these things are not recorded in the official history books, but even the powerful princes have to do this, let alone the most difficult civilians at the bottom.
Therefore, if Shen Chen wants to leave Xuzhou, he must rely on the power of the clan and unite together to realize his idea.