This is the strategic approach that Shen Chen has been thinking about since last year to this year.
Liu Bei has been wandering around these years, like a rootless person, because he has no advisers around him to help him make suggestions. Now that he learned that Shen Chen had a strategy, he quickly asked: "What is the best strategy?"
"The best policy is naturally that both Yuan and Cao will suffer losses!"
Shen Chen said: "As the saying goes, "when a snipe and a clam fight, the fisherman wins." When two tigers fight, one must not be killed and the other injured. A wounded tiger can still eat people, let alone a healthy tiger? Therefore, we must take action at the critical moment to kill the tiger. It hurts both sides."
"Both sides suffer?"
Liu Bei narrowed his eyes slightly and began to think.
Shen Chen nodded and said: "Yes, as long as we can do it, Cao Cao will not be able to go north and Yuan Shao will not be able to go south. The two sides are in a stalemate over the river and neither can engulf the other. Taking advantage of this opportunity, we can use Nanyang as a base to plot a great cause!"
Liu Bei quickly asked: "Then how can we achieve this?"
Shen Chen said: "It is only feasible if Cao Cao defeats Yuan Shao. We are in Nanyang, which is very close to Yingchuan. When Cao Cao defeats Yuan Shao, he will attack Xudu in a sneak attack. He will definitely return reinforcements and will not dare to pursue the north. At that time, we will withdraw Use this to defend the land of Nanyang, and then plan other plans."
Liu Bei was surprised and said: "I'm afraid it will not be easy for Cao Cao to defeat Duke Yuan. Yuan Shao, the fourth and third Duke, is in Hebei and has more than 200,000 troops under his command. With Cao Cao's current strength, how can he compete with him?"
Shen Chen said: "People decide what to do and what to do depends on Heaven. If Cao Cao is defeated by Yuan Shao, this best strategy will naturally be invalid. At that time, he can only choose between the middle strategy and the worst strategy."
The method of losing both sides is the strategy that Shen Chen has been considering for several years to maximize the benefits of the Guandu War.
Naturally, everyone knows the outcome of the Battle of Guandu. Xu You served as a second-in-command and reported the news about Wuchao to Cao Cao. Cao Cao then made a surprise attack on Wuchao overnight, burning Yuan Shao's food and grass, causing Yuan's army to be defeated, and then all 80,000 elite troops were defeated. Being tricked and killed severely damaged Yuan Shao's vitality, and he eventually died of grief and anger.
After Yuan Shao's death, the issue of seizing the heir again arose within the Yuan family. Cao Cao continued to divide and win over each other, and then defeated them one by one, and finally pacified the north completely.
So how can we maximize our benefits?
Of course, they can find a way to preserve Yuan Shao's strength. Even if Yuan Shao cannot live for two more years, as long as the 80,000 elites can return to Hebei alive, it will be difficult for Cao Cao to conquer Jizhou.
You must know that even after the Battle of Guandu in history, Cao Cao spent five years to pacify the north.
Yuan Shao's main force of more than 100,000 was wiped out in Yanjin, Baima, and Guandu. Eighty thousand people died directly in Guandu. Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang also attacked each other. However, despite such heavy losses and internal discord, Cao Cao still controlled Hebei. It was very difficult, and you can know how powerful the power Yuan Shao left behind was.
So to a certain extent, if Yuan Shao can be allowed to reduce losses and be defeated so miserably, even if he only lives one more year, Yuan Shao can solve the problem of establishing an heir, or let the 80,000 elites be preserved, and Cao Cao can regain the north, time will be greatly increased.
At that time, Shen Chen and Liu Bei will be in the south. Whether they are plotting against Jingzhou, Yizhou or Jiangdong, they will have time and space to operate. Even the Battle of Chibi cannot be fought. Once Liu Biao dies, Jingzhou will be at their fingertips.
But of course Liu Bei couldn't think that far, he just frowned and said: "Nanyang is the land of Liu Jingsheng, and with Nanyang as the foundation, I'm afraid Liu Biao will be taboo."
Shen Chen laughed and said: "Liu Biao was afraid of the north going south, so he never dared to send heavy troops to garrison Nanyang. He only dared to rely on the danger of the Mianshui River to consolidate Nanjun and Jiangxia. He did not have enough control over Jingnan. There was rarely Zhangxian's rebellion. If the north If someone helps him guard the door, I'm afraid he won't be able to ask for it. Didn't he hear about Zhang Xiu?"
"Well."
Liu Bei nodded and asked worriedly: "How will Zhang Xiu deal with it?"
Shen Chen said: "This man has a blood feud with both Cao Cao and Liu Biao. He did not dare to surrender to Cao Cao, but he had no choice but to surrender to Liu Biao, and Liu Biao did not dare to trust him. Therefore, currently he only dares to defend the land west of Nanyang. The best option is to go north of Wancheng. I will be in Xinye and pretend to be Liu Biao's vanguard. When the time comes, I may take Jingzhou as my foundation."
Pretend to be Liu Biao's pioneer and help him take Jingzhou as his foundation?
Liu Bei opened his eyes wide and said with a look of disbelief: "Isn't the young gentleman under Liu Jingzhou's tent? Isn't it possible?"
"good."
Shen Chen stood up and bowed his hands to him and said: "I have never taken refuge with Liu Biao. This time when I went north to attack Cao Cao, he gave me the lieutenant general he gave me later. I have always believed in my heart that Duke Xuande is the master of the Ming Dynasty!"
"Little Sir"
Liu Bei was in disbelief at first, and then his face showed ecstasy. He stepped forward and held Shen Chen's hand, so happy that he almost shed tears.
Only Shen Chen felt complicated.
This can be regarded as finally making it clear to Liu Bei whether he will stay or go.
In fact, Liu Biao was kind to Shen Chen.
Although Liu Bei also saved his life and that of his clan, Liu Biao also took care of his clan.
The two families of Huangmenting, Deng and Shen were able to move to Nanyang and live and work in peace and contentment. It was only with Liu Biao's help that they were able to live and work in peace and contentment today.
If you help Liu Bei take Jingzhou, it seems to be ungrateful.
But Shen Chen couldn't help it.
Who made Liu Biao unable to live for a few more years?
Liu Cong was a capitulationist and was tied to the interests of the Jingzhou capitulationist family.
Liu Qi was a good person, but he died of illness early.
So Shen Chen could only choose Liu Bei.
More importantly, Liu Bei's ideas are very close to his. They are all people-oriented and value the people at the bottom.
A great man once said that history belongs to the people.
Shen Chen is also determined to build a country without hunger, war, or poverty for the people.
If the feudal system cannot be overthrown, then he can only settle for the next best thing. He must not lose himself for power. At least he must cooperate with a benevolent king to build an ideal country.
And not as a subject, but as a collaborator!
Yes.
Shen Chen never felt that he was taking refuge in Liu Bei, but worked with Liu Bei to first build a new Han Dynasty and then start his own reforms.
It's the same relationship as Cao Cao and Xun Yu.
When he has enough say in the future, Shen Chen also hopes to sign an alliance with Liu Bei.
In addition to resolutely denying Liu Bei's words and forming a decision-making team in the future, some major decisions must be made through democratic voting.
In this way, Zhuge Liang, Pang Tong, and Xu Shu can have more say. Secondly, it is also to prevent things like Liu Bei's failure to listen to dissuasion, which eventually led to the Battle of Yiling.
And these are Shen Chen's lifelong wishes.
As for who the emperor is, it doesn't matter to him, because as a person who firmly stands on the side of the people, Shen Chen hopes that there will be no emperor to oppress and exploit them.
But given the current situation, it is impossible to overthrow the feudal system.
It was impossible for him to cooperate with Cao Cao who massacred the city, so it was the best choice to cooperate with Liu Bei, who was from a lower class background and was closest to the people.
As for Liu Biao who was kind to him, there was nothing he could do. His life span was only so long and he would die of illness in a few years, so he could only treat Liu Cong and Liu Qi's heirs kindly in the future to repay his kindness.
Hearing Shen Chen's words, Liu Bei was overjoyed. Wiping his tears, he excitedly stepped forward to help him up and said, "I can win the little gentleman. It's really like a fish in water."
"I come from a lower class background, and I know that all the people in Guizhou and Guizhou are suffering. The princes from all over the world only know how to fight for power and gain, but never think about benefiting the people and saving thousands of lives."
Shen Chen said solemnly: "Only Mr. Xuande cares about the people and has the image of a wise master. I also yearn for him and am willing to serve as a pioneer for the public!"
"I am just a foolish person. I only want to serve Your Majesty. How can I be considered a wise master?"
Liu Bei waved his hands and said: "I only wish that the common people of the Han Dynasty can live and work in peace and contentment, have clothes to wear and food to eat, and that the emperor can sit in the temple and be able to purify the world. It is enough that he does not act as rebelliously as Zhang Rang and Zhao Zhong. "
Shen Chen smiled and said: "That's why it's necessary for you to step forward to help the universe and determine the destiny of the world."
"I understand what you mean, young gentleman."
Liu Bei sighed: "But Liu Jingzhou and I are both members of the Han clan, how can we seize the same clan's inheritance?"
Shen Chen said: "That's why I asked the Duke to take Nanyang as the foundation first and delay the plan to the north. It is also to see the future changes and act according to the opportunity. Yuan Shaoqiang will hold his troops stationary, while Cao Cao is strong and will harass the rear. If he can find an opportunity to seize Yuzhou, that is most."
Nanyang is Liu Xiu's land of Longxing. It connects the north and the south and covers an area of 36,000 square kilometers, which is only 3,000 square kilometers smaller than the Guanzhong Basin.
The Qin Dynasty started with 39,000 square kilometers in the Guanzhong Basin and conquered the world. Liu Bei might as well use Nanyang as his base to attack Cao Cao in the north and capture Yuzhou, or go south and wait until Liu Biao's death to capture Jingzhou.
The reason why such a strategic plan can be planned mainly lies in Nanyang's current population.
According to historical records, Guanzhong and Nanyang are about the same area, but because Guanzhong was the capital of the Qin Dynasty and the Western Han Dynasty, it had a prosperous population and prosperous industries at that time. It was slightly wealthier than Nanyang, with hundreds of thousands more people.
But by the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Liangzhou warlords invaded the Sanfu Land many times, and Dong Zhuo moved the capital to Chang'an. Various wars, plagues, and natural disasters affected the Guanzhong population. One hundred thousand, dropped to less than three or four hundred thousand.
On the other hand, the population of Jingzhou, especially Nanyang, has increased dramatically. Due to the war in the north, a large number of people migrated to the south. Yangzhou increased from 3.2 million to 4.33 million, and Jingzhou increased from 3.59 million to 6. One million and two hundred thousand.
Among them, Nanyang has become the main area for population migration due to its large area of cultivated land. Over the years, people from Henan, Guanzhong, and Sili have migrated here one after another. The population has already exceeded one million.
Therefore, compared to Guanzhong, which is dilapidated and has no roosters for thousands of miles, Nanyang is now the best choice in terms of military resources, grain and mineral resources.
So Shen Chen's best strategy is simple.
It was during the period after Cao Cao and Yuan Shao burned down Wuchao in the Battle of Guandu that they immediately attacked Xudu for the third time, forcing Cao Cao to return to defense in person.
"Three Kingdoms" records that Cao Cao burned Wuchao in October of the fifth year of Jian'an, and Yuan Shao was defeated in November. This means that even after Wuchao's grain and grass were burned, Yuan Shao still had less than one camp in Guandu. A monthly supply of food.
During this month, Yuan Shao tried to defeat Cao Cao by force, and then forced Zhang He and Gao Lan to attack the camp. In the end, the two men could not defeat Cao Cao, and there was not enough food and grass. Yuan Shao pressed hard from behind, forcing them to surrender.
So as long as the commotion is big enough in this month and Cao Cao is forced to come back to defend Xudu and cannot kill the 80,000 surrendered soldiers, then things will take a big turn for the better.
Even if less than half of Yuan's army fled back to the north, as long as the elite Yuan army was not wiped out, Yuan Shao could breathe a sigh of relief and live for another year and a half, which would be enough for Cao Cao to drink.
At that time, Shen Chen will be able to use Nanyang as his base, either to attack Cao Cao in the north and cooperate with Yuan Shao to capture Yuzhou, or to wait for Liu Biao's death and seize Jingzhou, and then attack Jiangdong or Yizhou. As long as Cao Cao and Yuan Shao are not victorious negative, then they will always gain.
"I see."
Liu Bei pondered: "But I have a question, why don't we take advantage of the battle between Yuan and Cao, capture Xudu, and welcome the emperor to Jingzhou?"
"The emperor is like a treasure. Whoever holds it will be attacked by the whole world."
Shen Chen smiled bitterly and said: "Cao and Yuan are fighting for supremacy. Whoever wins will attack Nanyang with all his strength. If you don't have the strength, you can't take possession of it. Therefore, you can only welcome the emperor to Nanyang as a last resort. For example, I want to talk about the middle strategy. ."
"Zhongce?"
After listening to Shen Chen's words, Liu Bei nodded slightly and said: "The best strategy is for both Cao Cao and Yuan Shao to lose. We use Nanyang as the foundation and attack Cao Cao in the north. So what is the middle strategy?"
Shen Chen said: "The middle strategy is that Cao Cao is defeated. We sneak attack Xudu, welcome the emperor back to Nanyang, and join forces with Liu Biao and Sun Quan to fight against Yuan Shao."
Yuan Shao was very powerful. According to historical records, his total military strength at that time was more than 200,000, close to 300,000.
Eighty thousand people died in the Battle of Guandu, but before that there were the Battle of Baima and the Battle of Yanjin. In the Battle of Baima, Yan Liang led 30,000 to 40,000 people, in the Battle of Yanjin, Wen Chou led 5,000 to 6,000 people, and when Wuchao was burned down Tens of thousands of Yuan's troops were defeated by Cao Cao.
It can be seen that Yuan Shao led more than 100,000 troops in this battle alone. Then Qingzhou, Youzhou, and Bingzhou all needed men and horses to defend, so Yuan Shao's strength was almost twice that of Cao Cao.
Shen Chen also knew that he harassed Cao Cao from time to time in the rear, which would cause great pressure on Cao Cao. If he could not withstand the pressure and collapsed before Xu You, then he would have to face Yuan Shao who owned all of Henan and Hebei. , the pressure will be very great.
So he could only seize Liu Xie first, and then join forces with Liu Biao, Sun Ce, Liu Zhang and others to fight against Yuan Shao. After all, if Yuan Shao won the battle of Guandu, his expanded strength would be too great. It's too terrifying, even if several parties join forces, they may not be able to defeat him.
"What's the next step?"
Liu Bei stroked his beard and pondered, "The middle strategy is so terrible, how about the worst strategy?"
Shen Chen said: "The next best strategy is not to attack Xudu and wait and see what happens. If Yuan Cao decides the winner, he will definitely go south to attack Liu Biao. You can rely on Liu Biao and first conquer Jingnan, and then seize Yizhou as your foundation. Three points." The world. Whenever there is a change in the world, then advance in two directions and attack the Central Plains from Yizhou and Jingzhou together. Then hegemony can be achieved and the Han Dynasty can flourish."
This is the Longzhong pair.
Why is Longzhong a bad choice?
Because times are different.
When Zhuge Liang was fighting against Longzhong, the north had been decided and Cao Cao's general trend was achieved.
Therefore, he could only pave the way for Liu Bei to seize Yizhou and divide the world into three parts.
But now that Cao Cao and Yuan Shao have not yet decided the winner, there is an opportunity to take advantage and there is more room for maneuver.
For example, the best strategy is to make Yuan Shao and Cao Cao fight inextricably. Liu Bei can develop calmly in Nanyang, capture Yuzhou in the north, and capture Jingzhou in the south. It can also prevent Sun Quan from causing trouble, and there will be no disputes over Jingzhou.
The middle strategy is much worse, because the premise of the middle strategy is that Yuan Shao wins and Cao Cao loses. Yuan Shao is too strong, so they can only take Liu Xie to Nanyang.
Although he still looks weak, with Liu Xie's righteous title in his hands, he can order Liu Biao to unite with Sun Quan, and even influence the north to cause a fire in Yuan Shao's backyard. Once Liu Biao is dead, Liu Xie can order Liu Bei Being a herdsman in Jingzhou comes naturally.
The most important thing is that Shen Chen doesn't care who the emperor is. What he needs is a group of like-minded companions who care about the people as much as he does. Even if he flatters the emperor and Liu Bei becomes a powerful minister, he is at least much better than Cao Cao, the man who massacred the city. .
So the best strategy and the middle strategy are both good.
In contrast, the last resort is naturally a helpless choice.
As for other options.
For example, we could go from Wuguan in Nanyang to Guanzhong to develop, or go north along the Han River to take Hanzhong, and then capture Yizhou. We have indeed had this idea before.
But by the end of the Han Dynasty, I found that this idea was still too idealistic and too naive.
The first is Guanzhong, with a population of less than one in ten, and facing the attack from Han Sui, Ma Teng, and even Cao Cao. It is a dead end to build a foundation with a population of less than 300,000 or 400,000.
Next is Hanzhong.
It would be even more difficult to attack from Guanzhong. Even Cao Cao's more than 100,000 troops had to get lost at night and capture Hanzhong by mistake.
Going north from the Han River, Cao Zhen and Sima Yi had this idea, but as a result, a flash flood broke out and almost their entire army was wiped out.
The main reason was the Wudu earthquake in the Western Han Dynasty, which caused the Han River to change its course. The land route in the lower reaches of Hanzhong was completely inaccessible, and the only way was to take the waterway. The waterway was turbulent and rainy, and it was prone to flash floods. If you were not careful, Sima Yi and Cao Zhen’s end.
Therefore, the best choice is to occupy the Nanyang Basin, which has a large population and cultivated land area, and use this as a foundation to choose to go south or north based on the current situation.
"Um."
After listening to Shen Chen's words, Liu Bei shook his head and said: "There is no better option. The Emperor is still waiting for me to rescue him in Xudu. How can I abandon the Emperor and ignore it? When the situation changes, let's take the best and middle strategies."
"good."
Shen Chen cupped his hands and said: "I am thinking the same thing, but please know that no matter whether it is the best or the middle strategy, we need to go to Nanyang to rely on Liu Biao. After Nanyang, I will draw a clear line with you and pretend not to be familiar with each other. , when the time comes, please don’t talk to me in front of Liu Biao.”
"Why is this?"
Liu Bei was surprised.
Shen Chen explained: "Liu Biao looks generous, but in fact he is narrow-minded and intolerant of others. If the Duke goes to Nanyang and many heroes come to join him, he will be suspicious of him. Therefore, after the Duke goes to Nanyang, he must behave modestly and do not tolerate others." Be too showy."
"Is that so?"
Liu Bei nodded slowly and said solemnly: "I understand, thank you very much, young sir."
I didn't expect Liu Biao to be such a person. In the past, I only heard that he was a majestic and impressive person. But now it seems that it is true as Cao Cao said. Liu Biao is not a great hero in name only.