Deng Hong sat cross-legged on the mat in the corridor and thought seriously. If he had said anything else, he might not have listened, but Shen Chen was a genius of the Shen family. He could speak at the age of one and could read a thousand words at the age of three. The Shen family was not a wealthy family and did not have many collections at home. , he had already read all of it at the age of three.
Later, Deng Hong heard that his cousin's niece had given birth to a prodigy. She was very surprised, so she opened the Deng family's collection for him to browse. As a wealthy Xinye family, before fleeing, the Deng family had brought many bamboo slips with them, which gradually became a family heritage.
This kind of book is the foundation of a clan and has always been forbidden to outsiders. Even if Shen Chen is a cousin and cousin, they cannot be opened to the public because of their different surnames.
Only Shen Chen could enter the house and browse the books, which shows that the elders of the Deng family also recognized his talent.
It's just that a child is smart. How can he be able to discern such major events in the world?
It is true that Cao Cao massacred Pengcheng last year, but at that time most of the people were attached to Tao Qian, so it is possible to mistake them for Tao Qian's tribe.
And even if Cao Cao was cruel and wanted to kill people to vent his anger, he shouldn't vent his anger on the people.
The most important thing is that it is difficult to leave the hometown. The foundations of the Deng and Shen families are all in Huangmen Pavilion and the nearby countryside.
As the saying goes, people are cheap when they leave their hometown. Before they knew whether Cao Cao would kill people, it was impossible for them to listen to the words of a young son, abandon countless family properties, and move south to other places.
Therefore, the previous times when Shen Chen came to see him, Deng Hong made excuses to decline. This time, Shen Chen clearly came prepared and wanted to persuade him sternly and open a clan council.
"You tell me first."
Seeing that his face was even more ugly this time, Deng Hong did not refuse directly, but said: "I know you want to persuade everyone to move the clan south, but it is not easy to convince the clan elders. At least you have to convince me first."
Shen Chen's face was serious, he sat upright and said, "Then I will talk to my sixth uncle about the general trend of the world!"
Deng Hong also became serious: "Please tell me."
At this time, he had already regarded Shen Chen, who looked like a little adult, as an adult who treated him as an equal.
“Let’s talk about the root cause of Han Dynasty’s demise first!”
Shen Chen’s words would not stop until he was shocked.
As soon as he opened his mouth, Deng Hong scolded: "Ah Chen, don't talk nonsense."
"Then let's talk about the reasons for the Yellow Turban Rebellion."
Shen Chen looked sharply and said: "During the time of Emperor Huan and Emperor Ling, powerful families occupied many fields, cultivated goods and property, organized many fertile fields, and enslaved the poor. In times of disaster, life would be devastated, people would eat each other, and people's lives would be very difficult due to hunger. This is called The source of Zhang Jiao’s power!”
Here we talk about two reasons that led to the demise of the Western Han and Eastern Han Dynasties, one was land annexation, and the other was the cover for slaveholding.
Deng Hong could not be called a knowledgeable person, so when faced with Shen Chen's rhetoric, he shook his head and said: "Zhang Jiao is just a demagogue."
"Then how can my uncle explain that the Yellow Turban's momentum can arouse millions of people?"
Shen Chen asked back: "If the people everywhere were not already in poverty, why did they follow Zhang Jiao to rebel? And what is the source of the people's poverty? Is it just a natural disaster? No, this is a man-made disaster. Shi Dan once restricted farmland. The restriction of slaves was to save the former Han Dynasty, but to this day, nothing has changed, it’s just the end of the Han Dynasty again.”
"Well"
Deng Hong was speechless and said, "Ah Chen, don't talk nonsense. Now that the imperial court is still here, how can we talk about the last years?"
Shen Chen said sincerely: "Uncle, for the sake of the family's great business, you must not ignore good advice. I think Cao Cao has the ambition to be a hero. Xuzhou is like a tiger lying on its side. He will definitely come to attack him. Does my uncle think he is here to avenge his father?" ?He knows that he cannot annex Xuzhou with his strength, so in order to prevent others from getting it and threatening his flanks, he will kill all the chickens and dogs without leaving any trace!"
Deng Hong shook his head and said: "What you are saying is true, but the people of Xuzhou are also the people of the imperial court. People and gods are outraged by the slaughter of ordinary people. How could the imperial court let Cao Cao do whatever he wants?"
Shen Chen said coldly: "The emperor is in Chang'an and is controlled by Li Jue, Guo Si and other rebels. How can the imperial law control Cao Cao? What's more, how many people were slaughtered by Cao Cao in the Pengcheng incident? I can see that the imperial court did not care about him. ?Recognize the reality clearly, now is no longer the unified Han Dynasty, but a troubled world with the collapse of the legal system!"
Deng Hong angrily scolded: "Ah Chen, it's better to say as few of these rebellious words as possible."
Shen Chen sighed: "My uncle is still unwilling to listen to me. So, if my uncle doesn't believe me, I can prophesy two or three things. If the prophecy comes true, will my uncle be willing to hold a clan meeting?"
"If your prophecy is accurate, you should follow it."
Deng Hong agreed wholeheartedly.
Shen Chen then said seriously: "First of all, Tao Gongzu knew that he was defeated by Cao Cao, so he had to ask for reinforcements. Yuan Shu was a wolf, and Tao Gongzu would never look for him. So looking around, the only way to go north is to find Kong Beihai. This first prophecy is not to Rikong Beihai will definitely lead troops south to help, and perhaps Liu Bei, Prime Minister of Pingyuan."
"Oh? Why?"
Deng Hong was puzzled: "How come Pingyuan Xiang is among them?"
Shen Chen said: "My uncle doesn't care about current affairs, but I know that major events in the world will inevitably affect ordinary people like us, so I wait on the road every day to ask passers-by for news. Last year, Kong Beihai was besieged by the Yellow Turban Guanhai. Please ask Liu Bei of Pingyuan County to relieve the siege, Liu Shijun should be in Beihai at this time."
"oh."
Deng Hong nodded: "What about the second thing?"
Shen Chen said in a deep voice: "The second thing is that Cao Cao must first go south to attack the East China Sea from Xiapi up, and will not come directly from Pengcheng to Yan County, so we still have a chance to escape with the whole family. If my uncle believes in me, then Send the people who are good at riding horses to go south to Xiapi to find out the news. If Xiapi is massacred, it will be possible to verify whether what I said is true."
"South first then north?"
Although Deng Hong was not an outstanding talent, he also understood that marching and fighting had its own strategies.
Shen Chen thought it was puzzling that Cao Cao would take Pi first without breaking through the East China Sea.
Because everyone thought that since Cao Cao came to avenge his father, he could not go anywhere else and would only come to Donghai Yan County to cause trouble for Tao Qian.
Why did he think Cao Cao went to Xiapi instead of the East China Sea?
Shen Chen said: "Yes, the fourth and third sons of the Yuan family are famous all over the world. But the two Yuans are not compatible. Instead, they fight each other from the south to the north. Cao Cao has an alliance with Yuan Shao from the north, so his biggest enemy is not Tao Qian at all. But Yuan Shu in Huainan. Runan is in dire straits. If Yuan Shu wants to grow stronger, he will go north to invade Xuzhou. Cao Cao does not have the strength to capture Xuzhou now, so a dilapidated Xuzhou is in his interest."
"."
Deng Hong didn't know what to say for a moment. The information gap between the two parties created this phenomenon of mutual incomprehension.
Shen Chen's remarks may not matter in the eyes of future generations, because many people in later generations will know how Cao Cao massacred Xuzhou by casually searching on the Internet. He first broke Xiapi, massacred several cities in Xiapi, and then went north to attack. However, Yancheng was forced to withdraw due to Lu Bu's sneak attack.
But in the eyes of people in the late Eastern Han Dynasty, he was as unpredictable as a ghost, and ordinary people couldn't understand his meaning at all.
After all, what he said is equivalent to predicting a world war in the year 2000. People in the world will feel that it can only be described in two words - outrageous.
The problem is that Shen Chen's words seemed to be reasonable and well-founded, not like nonsense, which made Deng Hong unsure and very hesitant.
Finally, looking at Shen Chen's serious face, Deng Hong nodded and agreed: "Okay, it's up to you."