254 Black clouds threaten to destroy the city (6k)
Time has entered October, and Yike has ushered in the fourth quarter of this year.
Although it is a week's holiday at the beginning, this does not make many employees feel relaxed. Without paying special attention, those remarks that pessimize the company's stock price will naturally come into view.
Yike's collapse, more restrictions, the last straw's Q3 financial report...
The company will definitely not collapse, and it will still have domestic business anyway, but when it will recover is a question, and the intense short selling the company has encountered will inevitably have a result.
No matter how you look at it now, things are not looking good. Shipments have been significantly reduced in July among the three months of July, August, and September. In the following two months, the European and domestic markets have completely dried up...even though they are said to be for sale.
For some businesses, however, this will definitely not save the financial report.
The situation is very bad and all the signals are very negative. Fortunately, Mr. Fang is back commuting to get off work again.
Perhaps, the market will continue to be depressed, and it is inevitable to be shorted this time, but Mr. Fang is the backbone. As long as he is here, the company's internal confidence will be a little higher.
On the morning of October 4, Fang Zhuo did not take a day off. Instead, he received Lu Qi, who had resigned from Microsoft, at the president's office and planned to invest some money in him.
"Mr. Fang, Yike has encountered some difficulties recently." After greetings, Lu Qi talked about Yike's current situation.
Fang Zhuo has recently become very familiar with discussing such topics with others. He nodded and said, "Yes, have confidence. It will get better."
The question in Lu Qi's mind was stuck and he changed direction: "Nasdaq announced the latest short positions a few days ago. Yike has indeed been targeted by too many people this time."
The short position of Yike announced by Nasdaq on September 30 was US$21.3 billion, which is an astonishing scale.
Lu Qi has experienced a lot in the United States over the years, but he also feels that the recent situation that Yike has encountered and the grand occasion of being shorted... I wonder if there will be no successors, it is indeed unprecedented.
However, it was precisely because of this that he thought it was a good time for him to join Yike.
Because Microsoft changed its CEO and internal ceiling, Lu Qi had long wanted to leave, but since there was no suitable position for Yike, he had been waiting and waiting to see if there would be a better opportunity.
As a result, Duji, another domestic company that had been kindly invited, became increasingly declining and was eliminated as a candidate. Other companies such as Alibaba and Penguin were also unsatisfactory.
Lu Qi originally didn't want to force it, and planned to be an investor and incubate projects. However, in the blink of an eye, Yi Ke played an AI game with Google and discussed the DL architecture, which made him feel itchy.
He then thought about it, although Yike was in trouble, it was still an opportunity for him to show off his talents. Since he didn't have a position, he would create a position, so he came up with this self-recommendation for visiting him.
"Yike always gets shorted, and I feel helpless." Fang Zhuo shook his head, "Let them be."
Lu Qi looked at the helplessness on Mr. Fang's face and comforted him: "Mr. Fang, the setback is only temporary. Yike's being shorted this time is a special situation. However, I also want to talk about my thoughts on Yike's future.
"
Fang Zhuo smiled in surprise: "Mr. Lu, I thought you were here to ask for money today."
He pulled out a copy of the contact between Yike Investment and Lu Qi. According to the above, Lu Qi wanted to set up a fund to incubate scientific and technological innovation projects in China.
This is not surprising, as many senior executives from companies have experienced such excesses.
"Yike has been established for more than ten years. It is definitely a company that people respect. There are so many companies in the world. It is not easy to do this." Lu Qi said his evaluation, and then said sincerely, "I have always had
Paying attention to Yike, I also see that Yike is trying to make some transformations, but I think that at this time point, Yike has reached a very important stage."
Seeing that Mr. Fang was listening carefully, he continued: "Mr. Fang, will Yike be a robot company in the future? Or a tram company?"
Fang Zhuo smiled and replied: "Can't we sell them together? There is also a mobile phone."
"Of course." Lu Qi pointed to the robot Guard standing silently in the office, then shook his head and said, "But I think that whether robots or trams, their future core is intelligence and deep learning."
After thinking briefly, Fang Zhuo commented: "Mr. Lu, this statement is not new to me."
He asked rhetorically: "You should have noticed the 'Taibai' we announced some time ago, right?"
"It was after seeing it that I thought I should sit in front of Mr. Fang and express my feelings." Lu Qi said seriously, "I think Yike does not pay enough attention to deep learning DL."
Fang Zhuo took a sip of tea and said with a smile: "Isn't this enough? Yike should be regarded as one of the companies with the strongest R&D capabilities in this field in the world. If this is not enough, then to what extent?"
He is satisfied with the performance of "Taibai".
Although the recent focus is on the production capacity of Yike and Bingxin, and the system operation of the semiconductor industry, the performance of "Taibai" has really made the previous research and development sound, which is not bad.
Lu Qi said seriously: "ALL IN AI!"
Fang Zhuo frowned slightly and signaled Lu Qi to continue.
"Although Yike now needs to ensure the supply of mobile phone products due to special circumstances, I think looking for Yike in the next 16 years is also a high priority." Lu Qi remained serious, "If, Mr. Fang,
What I mean is that if, if Yike’s mobile phones are really not competitive enough, the only thing that Yike can make a comeback in the next 16 years is AI.”
It has been 16 years since Yike was founded in 2001. These are 16 years of rapid development. How to ensure the competitive position in the next 16 years is a strategic decision.
Lu Qi is not sure when Yike's mobile phone market will recover, but if it is the worst case scenario, he believes that cloud computing, search advertising, technical service fees and other sectors alone are not enough to make Yike glorious again.
Considering this, we can only now bet on Yike's deep learning DL R&D strength, which is still the world's leading, and strive to make breakthroughs and reshape the ecosystem.
Yike is already very brilliant, defeating Nokia and leading the smartphone era. Even if it dies this time, it will be a great success, and if it can survive in the next few years...
Lu Qi felt that with Yike's current configuration, it was worth taking a gamble.
If it doesn’t work, then it’s just a matter of doing our best for the Yike brand. If it works, Lu Qi will become another name in the textbooks.
"You are quite ALL." Fang Zhuo muttered.
"Whether it's robotics projects, electric cars, including search, whether it's Google, Bing, or Duji, these will also be reshaped by AI, which will also bring new market opportunities." Lu Qiyou said, "This
It is equivalent to the smartphones of the past. At that time, everyone thought that the mobile phone market was already a red ocean, and Nokia occupied nearly 50% of the market. What innovative power could still grow?"
"Unexpectedly, when new smartphones appeared, Nokia was defeated like a mountain. Its huge market share was like snow encountering the scorching sun. It collapsed at the first touch."
"Mr. Fang, I think AI in the future is the key to reshaping the market!"
"Mr. Fang, AI is the key to making Yike great again!"
"Mr. Fang, if you don't have this level of awareness, even if 'Taibai' has attracted a certain amount of attention, it will be difficult to take the initiative in the future!"
Fang Zhuo heard Lu Qi's impassioned speech, thought for a moment, and said with a smile: "Mr. Lu, I really didn't expect you to have such a high opinion of AI."
"Mr. Fang, I respect Yike's brand very much, and I also think Yike has a good R&D foundation. Otherwise, I wouldn't be here today." Lu Qi said, "Perhaps, Mr. Fang feels that Yike is still
There are a lot of talents, and I feel that Yike has its own R&D team, but what I want to say is that technological development changes rapidly at certain times."
He gave an example: "Just like the discussion jointly held by Yike, Google and NVIDIA, someone at Google proposed the self-attention mechanism, thinking that it could replace the recurrent neural network and make the field of NLP more advanced.
Good choice."
"Before this, everyone generally believed that recurrent neural networks were the best choice."
"But what happens after that? Google's Uskert and several of them teamed up to conduct research in this area and published a paper on 'Attention is All You Nee' in August, which quickly attracted attention."
"Mr. Fang, this model with the self-attention mechanism as its core has been quickly verified. At least it outperforms all other models in translation tasks."
"Mr. Fang, it's everything!"
"Moreover, the training time is greatly shortened."
"In this short period of time, could you have imagined such changes in technological innovation before?"
Lu Qi said a series of words, and finally pointed at himself: "So, I am here, thinking that strategic awareness and technical acumen are what Yike lacks at the highest level today."
After listening to Lu Qi's eloquent narration, Fang Zhuo pondered for a while and changed his name: "Dr. Lu, sit down, sit down, let's sit down and talk."
Just now Lu Qi stood up when he was so excited.
Fang Zhuo didn't find this kind of excitement and persuasion ridiculous. On the contrary, he was seriously thinking about this person's opinion.
At the very least, he captured Lu Qi’s view on search, which is a business that “will also be reshaped by AI.”
Lu Qi is absolutely extremely professional in search. He is considered the "Savior" of Microsoft's search engine, and he has also held the highest-level position that a Chinese can hold in an American technology company.
In addition, Lu Qi received a PhD in computer science while studying at Carnegie Mellon University in the United States. His self-proclaimed "technical acumen" is not a boast.
Fang Zhuo does not wear a filter for any senior management in the industry. On the contrary, sometimes he has to persuade them not to look at themselves through a filter, but he has great respect for technical people.
Because, this is what I lack, and no matter how I make up for it, I cannot be compared with these outstanding people.
Fang Zhuo just thought about his mentality for a while. To be honest, he is quite satisfied with "Taibai". Its performance of defeating the human camp and narrowly defeating Google's "Alpha" is enough to scare people.
Do you have a problem with being "bluffed"?
The stocks of Yike that were shorted in this way were temporarily stimulated.
However, Fang Zhuo has witnessed "technical acumen" and experienced "technological innovation" with his own eyes, and he understands the power that can be unleashed at this level. Liang Mengsong is the best example.
He now knew what Lu Qi wanted when he came here. He was just weighing whether this person's views were extremely beneficial to Yike.
Fang Zhuo thought slowly, and now he was also sure of one thing, that is, Lu Qi must have misjudged Yi Ke.
"Mr. Lu, to be honest, Yike's performance in the third quarter was very bad." Fang Zhuo spoke up. Instead of expressing his views on the previous point, he talked about Yike's current situation, "I thought you wanted to continue to do incubation.
Fund, I didn’t expect you to be very interested in Yike at this time.”
"Although Yike has been established for 16 years, it is actually still young. Moreover, Yike has a brand advantage in the Chinese market. No matter how the revenue declines, as long as we can come up with competitive products, we can make it back.
"Lu Qi said sincerely, "The current situation of Yike is not good, and it may decline in the future. However, as I just said, if we can focus on the innovative AI field, we will definitely be able to be brilliant again in the future."
Fang Zhuo looked at Lu Qi and asked, "Is Dr. Lu so sure?"
"I have been paying attention to Yike, and I have seen Mr. Fang talk about the future of Yike on different occasions. You regard robots and electric vehicles as the carriers of artificial intelligence. I think it is right." Lu Qi gave another example.
, "However, artificial intelligence is not an unpopular word in Silicon Valley. Just like Nvidia, it is really going all out to be the shovel for the development of artificial intelligence. Everyone is shouting, but Huang Renxun is really promoting it."
During the American Gold Rush, many people went hunting for gold, but there were also people who made fortunes selling gold shovels.
"The degree of emphasis determines the company's investment, which also determines its development on this track. Mr. Fang's understanding is correct." After Lu Qi said this, he paused, "It's just not great enough."
Mainstream but not great enough.
Fang Zhuo is not angry, he is someone who can discuss things.
His last and heaviest expression since meeting Lu Qi: "Mr. Lu, since it comes to this point, I will be more honest. It is difficult for me to say what Yike's future revenue and competitiveness will be. This
This restriction from BIS shocked us all."
Lu Qi saw that Mr. Fang was frank, so he followed suit and said frankly: "Mr. Fang, it is better to provide icing on the cake than to give someone timely assistance. I think I have a chance to display my abilities in Yike. Duji, Ali, and Penguin have all had contact with me, but I
I would still rather come to Yike, even if there will be a difficult period in the future."
Mr. Fang stood up excitedly: "Mr. Lu..."
Lu Qi responded: "Mr. Fang..."
Fang Zhuo and Lu Qi shook hands firmly, confirming each other's intentions and sincerity.
"Mr. Lu." Fang Zhuo sat down again and discussed the current situation again, "Although it is very difficult now and although Yike needs to transform, the most important task now is to restore our main business. It is impossible to kill ourselves with a knife, and
, Artificial intelligence still needs time to develop, and it will not be a breakthrough in a short time."
He was sure of this.
Lu Qi nodded slightly and agreed with this.
"Yike has established an emerging industry division, which is engaged in the transformation of cutting-edge technologies, including the 'Kunpeng' tram." Fang Zhuo slowed down and considered, "If Mr. Lu is willing to come, Yike
A deep learning division will be established and all research and development in this area will be transferred. Any..."
He emphasized: "I can provide any resources that Mr. Lu thinks are needed. In addition, cooperation between DL and other businesses of the company can also be promoted as a priority."
Originally, deep learning was under the Emerging Industries Division. Now it is separated out and given sufficient resources and the highest priority.
This is definitely not ALL IN AI, but Yike is really not that knowledgeable.
In addition, the resources required for deep learning at this stage are actually limited, and this promise will naturally be fulfilled with breakthroughs in research and development.
Lu Qi thought briefly and then readily agreed.
"Okay, Mr. Fang, I am happy to work with the best DL R&D team in the world. I think we can create even more dazzling sparks!"
Fang Zhuo was very happy and admired Lu Qi's decisiveness. He smiled and asked, "Mr. Lu, what if I don't agree with your point of view today?"
"That might be Yike's loss." Lu Qi said confidently.
Fang Zhuo shook hands with Lu Qi again.
Lu Qi finally asked something that the outside world was extremely concerned about: "Mr. Fang, when will Yike's Q3 financial report be released?"
Fang Zhuo did not give an exact time, but only replied: "It will be sent when it is supposed to be sent."
This is undoubtedly what the outside world is most concerned about at Yike. Even Lu Qi, who was seeking opportunities in Yike today, couldn't help but ask. However, he was a little confused by Mr. Fang's answer.
However, Lu Qi had already prepared for Yike's continued decline, and would not be surprised by what was about to happen. He came to Yike this time to rebuild its glory.
To paraphrase a popular saying in the United States, make Yi Ke great again!
The National Day holiday in October caused some changes in the organizational structure of Yike. Lu Qi quickly joined the company and became a member of Yike as senior vice president and president of the deep learning division.
This news caused a small stir. Many people were very confused about Lu Qi joining Yike at this time. The ship was about to sink, so why did he jump on it?
But it’s just a small disturbance. Everyone’s attention is still focused on Yike’s Q3 financial report.
The third quarter has ended, when will the financial report be released?
Yike has been silent for a long time, and this silence is also regarded as a negative signal, adding an additional US$300 million to the short position disclosed on October 15.
Russell, the short-selling pioneer of RC Hedge Fund, shouted to Yike on TikTok from a distance, calling for the early disclosure of the Q3 financial report that has attracted public attention.
"Death sooner or later is death, Yike, hurry up, I can't wait!"
"Mr. Fang, Mr. Fang, are you there? Hurry up and stamp it!"
Similar sounds often appeared in the mouths of his colleagues.
Fang Zhuo did not respond to this, nor did he think there was anything to respond to. In addition to paying attention to the news from Bingxin and SMIC, he was also paying attention to the raging election campaign on the Ami side.
Not long ago, on October 9, two candidates, Agawa and Aschi, held their second televised debate at the University of Washington. The economic and trade policies involved were worthy of attention.
For Yike, this is the worst and worse treatment.
As a hot topic, Yi Ke's name has been frequently mentioned by various candidates this year, which has become a microcosm of the fact that everyone is willing to use more radical methods to win votes, at least verbally.
On October 20, Fang Zhuo saw Achuan mentioning Yike again in the newspaper, this time it was very brief.
"I have no interest in talking about Yike anymore. It is effectively dead."
"I'm more interested in creating more of these deaths so that they can become our nourishment."
On October 25, Fang Zhuo received a call from Lu Qi.
After Lu Qi reported on the work he took over, he asked a strange question: "Mr. Fang, I heard that there will be a press conference of Yike next month? What is this release?"
"Yike will have a press conference in the fall, Mr. Lu, don't you know?" Fang Zhuo asked rhetorically.
"I know, but..." Lu Qi hesitated, but what else can Yike release now?
Or release notebooks? Or smart home products?
Fang Zhuo thought for a while and replied: "It's just the release of regular products."
Yike regularly releases mobile phones in autumn.
This press conference involves a lot of things, and the level of confidentiality in all aspects is very high, and the very few senior executives with internal knowledge also remain silent.
Lu Qi roughly knew that it was similar to the last press conference.
He didn't ask further questions, since he was about to see it anyway.
On October 28, Fang Zhuo received news from SMIC that the 10nm process has entered the stage of small-scale mass production and is expected to be ready for large-scale mass production in December. However, the yield rate still needs to be improved and the production capacity must gradually increase.
There are only three days left until the end of the month, and the media's attention to Yike's Q3 financial report has once again reached a fever pitch. According to regulations, the latest release time is approaching.
However, on October 31, the short position of Nasdaq was first announced on Monday. As expected, Yike broke the historical record four times in a row, reaching an epoch-making US$22.5 billion, and its market value also reached US$215.3 billion.
new low.
Just as everyone was waiting with bated breath for Yike to announce its Q3 financial report, Yike submitted Form 12b-25 to the SEC and obtained a short grace period of 15 days on the grounds that "the company's operating business has undergone major changes."
In other words, Yike’s Q3 financial report will be released on November 15 at the latest.
Russell received the news immediately and commented sharply: "Yike actually delayed it for another 15 days. Please, can I see Yike's Q3 financial report before I die?"
The longer Yike delays, the more powerful this Q3 financial report will be. Victory is right in front of us, and the only thing missing is this final conclusion.
When Russell thought about the collapse of Yike's stock price, he felt a thrill from the bottom of his heart, and he became increasingly dissatisfied with Yike's every possible means of delaying it.
Not just Russell, this time people like "Short Master" Chanos, "Hedge Jordan" Cohen, "Short King" Paulson and others all ridiculed because of the failure of the Q3 financial report release.
Hyenas swarm in pursuit of the weakened lion, and vultures circle, waiting for their prey to die.
Domestic media used the term "dark clouds over the city" to describe the unprecedented pressure that Yike is experiencing.
Time has entered November 1st, which is the traditional Western Halloween.
Fang Zhuo, who has not been updated for a long time, has new updates on Twitter, enjoying himself with the short sellers.
But he had no words, only a funny grimace that seemed to open his eyes.
After a while, I want to open my eyes.
However, Fang Zhuo updated casually, but the confidence of the domestic media seemed to suddenly return. Sina Finance conducted an informal analysis - as soon as Mr. Fang, whom he had not seen for a long time, appeared, it was like seeing a glimmer of gold in the dark clouds.
, is it what I imagined?
Even the people at Sina didn't dare to think about it or include it in a formal analysis. They just asked silently and expectantly.
Yeah?
Mr. Fang, right?
Is it the armor light opening to the golden scales of the sun?
