Discussions about Yike in the media have increased significantly.
Many short-selling institutions are no longer satisfied with telling investors through the media. Instead, they have gone out in person to point at the nose of Yike. This company is being shorted by us. Don't look at it now, it is more than 20 billion.
, there is a huge bubble in it.
Because of the existence of Kong Yu, the head of the MIGA fund, the information about relevant institutions is relatively clear here at Fang Zhuo.
In addition to the short-selling king Paulson who has spoken out twice, there are now both established short-selling institutions and hedge funds that have just transformed. Some are aggressive in style, and some are relatively cautious, but all of them want to make a profit from Yike.
Pen.
Fang Zhuo also saw such a bold statement in the Gasoline Man's reporting document - to earn back the money lost in the financial crisis last year from Yike.
In response to this situation, Fang Zhuo has released market information by raising stocks, and is already making plans to buy back the company. He himself has been increasing his shareholdings, but there is really not much he can do.
At present, from the perspective of Fang Zhuo, a non-professional, the consequences of Yike's ban on sales have actually been partially eliminated. He has also talked about this in front of the media. This may not be conducive to short-selling signals, but
It is a must-have preparation for the company.
It stands to reason that with such a bottom-line for new machine connections, similar statements from Apple, and the gradual elimination of news about Microsoft's fate, the so-called bubbles in the company's stock price should not be that much, and stock investors should distinguish right from wrong.
But in fact……
From a non-professional perspective, the stock price crash may not be based on facts at some point, but the spread of panic.
Fang Zhuo watched the entire financial crisis last year, and this year he saw what the short-selling institutions wanted to achieve, and he gained some insights, which is equivalent to 0.3 professionals.
Now, based on the analysis of the capabilities of these 0.3 professionals, the increase in the cost of raising funds is becoming more and more obvious.
At this point, the short and long parties can probably reach some agreement. The short-selling institution is happy to see a larger bubble emerge, and it is waiting for the final short squeeze moment to arrive.
When Yike was first listed, Fang Zhuo held 34.215% of the shares and was the largest shareholder. IDG, Capital Today, and the management were behind.
Later, shareholders such as IDG, Capital Today, Sony Music, and the co-founders cashed out their shares for various reasons, and his shares were reduced to 33.4% due to the improvement of his life.
This improvement process was interrupted by Lehman's short selling, and the shares did not change again.
Until the weakness of Yike Company at the patent level was magnified, Fang Zhuo planned to make up for possible losses from the financial level. Coinciding with the impact of the financial crisis, the shareholding gradually increased to 35%, 37.5%, 39%...
As of March 20, Fang Zhuo held 41.8% of the shares of Yike Company.
However, compared to the previous increase in holdings, his capital costs began to soar by hundreds of millions after exceeding 40%.
In other words, I made some money during the financial crisis, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to carry on like this.
According to Kong Yu's analysis, after the shareholdings of the two institutional shareholders were locked, Shenxin Kechuang held 3.7% of the shares, Xiangjiang Huanyu held 3.16%, the company set up a third-party agency to hold 3% of the talent option pool, Sina held 0.3%, and then
Plus 25% of the private option lock-in.
This is a total of 35.16% of the shares that will not be moved.
Coupled with the 4.9% of key customer funds of MIGA funds that did not reach the holding line, this is 40.06%.
Today's major shareholders hold 41.8% of the shares, and the two together account for 81.86%.
In other words, Yike’s current outstanding shares in the stock market are 18.14%.
If you want to achieve the conditions for a run, Kong Yu believes that major shareholders need to increase their holdings to at least 48%, and then look at the short positions to decide whether to continue to absorb chips.
As long as the short position is higher than the outstanding shares, it is a hunting signal.
And catching such a signal... is extremely simple.
The Nasdaq Exchange updates short position disclosures every half month, including only stocks listed on the Nasdaq Exchange.
In the data update of Yike stock on the 15th, the total short positions were US$1.82 billion, accounting for about 7% of the shares at the time.
There will be a data delay in the half-monthly update, but this is enough for Fang Zhuo to judge his own position conditions and when to harvest.
According to the ITC ruling process information and exchange update frequency, March 31 at the end of this month and April 15 in the middle of next month are the two time points for critical judgments, and before that, Kong Yu still hopes to attract
Come to more short selling institutions.
He felt that the 7% short position was not lively enough on the one hand, and on the other hand it also raised the run line on his own holdings.
Such an increase in circulating shares will directly and significantly increase capital costs. Although it can eventually be passed on to the other side, supporting the rise of a company of Yike's size will be extremely astonishing and will easily lead to more scrutiny.
Kong Yu is very patient. He continues to use vests to seduce his peers, hoping to double the short position to at least 14% in half a month to a month.
However, when it comes to the investment of real money, it may be that the alliance between Yike and Apple has indeed lowered the expectation of the effect of the ban. Although many short-selling institutions have maintained their attention on Yike's stock price, they still have not easily jumped into it.
Kong Yu even complained about his boss when he reported the situation in person.
"Mr. Fang, don't warn people. Those people with hair on their faces are like a bunch of monkeys. If you keep warning like this, you may not even reach 10% in the end."
Fang Zhuo was also helpless: "Paulson called me out for being naive. How could they be afraid of warnings from a naive person like me?"
"Paulson is the same. Just by talking there, his hedge funds have not heard of taking action. If a short-selling king like him actually takes action, the effect will definitely be better than our institution in Chicago." Kong Yu was very envious of Paulson at this time.
Fame makes things easier.
It's a pity that Paulson can only be an ally for a certain distance. Now that he has made money, he can't engage in the same internal and external coordination after the ventilation.
Fang Zhuo is a little regretful. To make the company bigger and stronger, many methods cannot be used.
On March 22, after Yike New York’s President Office received support from the domestic ICBC, Fang Zhuo met Xiong Xiaoge, a well-known investor who flew to the United States.
Xiong Xiaoge flew to the United States to talk to IDG about work in China. By the way, he also came to see Mr. Fang who was at the forefront of the storm.
"Although IDG's investment in the United States is not large, it is still very radical."
After Xiong Xiaoge arrived at the office and exchanged greetings, she sighed implicitly.
Fang Zhuo glanced at Old Xiong and said in a serious tone: "This is in the United States, and what you say now may be monitored."
Xiong Xiaoge was startled and immediately fell silent.
"Don't worry, I'm just teasing you." Fang Zhuo took a sip of tea, looked at the sneaky expression of the old bear, and said happily.
"There won't be any monitoring here, right?" Xiong Xiaoge got up from the sofa and walked around the office, looking as if he could see through the walls and ceiling.
Fang Zhuo smiled and said: "I mean, I don't know if there is monitoring or not, but with the anti-monitoring equipment in the office, you can still talk."
Xiong Xiaoge sat back on the sofa with a heavy heart. After all, he had scruples and did not dare to continue talking about the topic he wanted to talk about.
He frowned for a while and sighed: "I am paying attention to the short-selling situation faced by Yike. There are so many people staring at Yike now. Is the market value rebounding too good?"
"Yike's market value is not bad, um, but if it's high, it's really easy for short-selling institutions to try to find bubbles." Fang Zhuo listened to Lao Xiong's careless words and answered slowly.
Regarding short selling in the stock market, large companies often face such a situation.
Companies such as Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon are often at the forefront of short selling in U.S. stocks.
Fang Zhuo still vaguely remembers the news that Apple and Tesla alternately became the most shorted companies in the United States.
"I'm coming to the United States this time, cough, cough..." Xiong Xiaoge coughed intelligently and said after a few seconds, "In addition to the company's official business, I also want to take this opportunity to ask you if you need help with the ice core.
?”
Fang Zhuo replied directly: "No need."
"Well, since you need...cough cough cough..." Xiong Xiaoge coughed for real this time and looked at Mr. Fang in astonishment. What a ruthless man he is, even his temperament has changed!
Fang Zhuo spread his hands, he really didn't need it, Brother Wang gave him the money.
Xiong Xiaoge was stunned for a while, and said sincerely: "I went to Luzhou before coming to the United States, and then went to Lin'an and Shencheng to see the conditions of the two ice core factories. The semiconductor industry in Luzhou has been formed
and continue to grow, Lin'an No. 2 Factory is a bit worse due to the influence of DRAM, and Shencheng No. 3 Factory has a very good sensor production line."
“Including Yike and downstream sealing and testing as well as surrounding areas, the ecosystem of Ice Core has been initially constructed.”
"This gives me a lot to think about..."
Xiong Xiaoge added another word: "And shocking."
He poured himself half a cup of tea and said with emotion: "I went to Luzhou half a year ago and I went to Luzhou this time. In just half a year, there seems to have been a lot of growth. The ice core really blossomed in your hands.
Is it really possible to catch up with Taiwan Ji?"
Fang Zhuo smiled slightly, but he was willing to listen to Lao Xiong's praise of the ice core.
He said: "If Zhang Rujing were sitting in front of me, he would say, we will definitely catch up with Taiwan Records. If it were Qiu Ciyun, he would say, let's catch up. If it were Liang Mengsong, he would definitely say, give me a few more years and we will surpass it."
.”
Xiong Xiaoge was silent.
"Old Xiong, you perfectly fit my stereotype of venture capital today." Fang Zhuo frowned and said, "Although you people are highly skilled in finance, you can't rush in when there is profit, and withdraw when there is no profit. Look at it.
You have actually carried out on-the-spot investigation instead of conceptualizing data, and now you have ideas in your mind."
"If you don't work in venture capital, you don't know the pressure of partners. Well, I'm here to be trained today." Xiong Xiaoge said helplessly, "Anyway, I can't help Yike. I can't help Bingxin."
Now I can make the decision and take another shot."
"Okay, I'll give you a number and wait for the number to be called." Fang Zhuo didn't refuse to the end. Ice core still needs money, but that's not the focus at this stage.
Xiong Xiaoge took two sips of tea: "I'll go to IDG in the afternoon, um..."
"Well, you can't sharpen your own knife, so go ahead." Fang Zhuo said this.
Xiong Xiaoge resisted the urge to ask and nodded slightly, feeling President Fang's confidence this time.
"Oh, yes, I will have a live interview on New York TV tomorrow. I still want to talk about the company's optimistic situation after the sales ban. If you have nothing to do, you can take a look." Fang Zhuo thought of tomorrow's arrangements.
Xiong Xiaoge talked about his observations after arriving in the United States: "I was watching TV in the hotel last night, and I changed the financial content of three channels. They were all talking about the bubble in Yike's stock price. Do you have no money to buy a navy?
?”
"Hey, after all, you can't fully display your fists in other people's places." Fang Zhuo has no choice about this. He can only talk about Yike in Bloomberg, "New York Times", "Washington Post", Twitter and other places.
Anyway, let’s hedge both sides and see the effect.
In the past two days, Yike's stock price has risen again as the market digested the news that the company was buying back shares.
Xiong Xiaoge asked before going out: "Which channel?"
"NBC's financial TV station, nine o'clock in the morning, oh, that's CNBC." Fang Zhuo replied.
Xiong Xiaoge nodded. The NBC channel is quite influential. If you don't have a meeting tomorrow, you can open it and take a look.
Fang Zhuo sent Lao Xiong out and began to think about what kind of good news could be released tomorrow morning. Although he hoped that the cost of raising funds would be lower, he also did not want the stock price to be exposed by short sellers who would always provide some specious information.
The stock price needs to be stable, whether it goes up or down, but it needs to be stable and wait a little longer to see the enthusiasm of the short sellers at the end of the month.
Fang Zhuo thought so, but he didn't expect that when he arrived at the live broadcast site the next morning, he really saw the enthusiasm of the short sellers.
When the live broadcast was discussing the company's market performance, the host John suddenly interrupted and introduced today's guest lineup, which included senior executives from three short-selling institutions.
Many and empty face each other.
From online to offline.
This is the content of today's live broadcast.
Fang Zhuo himself had been an uninvited guest of Steve Jobs, and he didn't show any panic except for being surprised when he was treated like this today.
"This is Andrew Lightford, the founder of the Stock Lemon website, known as the bounty hunter on Wall Street."
"This is Peter, the chief investment officer of the hedge fund P&T. He has been vocal recently and is an aggressive hedge fund investment manager."
"This is Niels, the founder of the hedge fund Satori Fund. He is not well-known. He encountered the financial crisis just a year after his debut. Fortunately, he did not jump off the building. This time he wants to make some money."
Before the host had finished introducing the guests, Fang Zhuo looked at the three smiling, serious or nervous people and was already silently reciting their identities in his mind.
Bounty hunter Andrew, aggressive short-seller Pete, and rookie Dennis the Menace.
It's a pity that the show failed to invite Paulson, and he has never really met the short-selling king face to face.
Fang Zhuo rubbed his fingers, feeling a little regretful.
"Mr. Fang, you don't mind our surprise attack, do you?" the host John asked the head of Yike with a smile after briefly introducing the guests.
Fang Zhuo sat on the sofa, crossed his legs, and nodded gently: "Of course not, I am also very interested in seeing the tricks of short-selling institutions in person."
