"Going to Russia to open a bank? How could you think of such a thing?" After hearing what Ye Kai said, Chu Yunsong showed a puzzled expression.
As the union republic that has inherited the largest legacy of the former Soviet Union, Russia is naturally the most powerful among all union republics. Although there is also the so-called CIS, in the eyes of everyone, only Russia can be considered a real big country.
The only major country that inherited 76% of the Soviet Union's land area and 50% of its population, Russia can be regarded as the first successor to the Soviet Union. The most important thing is that Russia also inherited the Soviet Union's nuclear strike force and the most powerful armaments.
At the same time, Russia also assumed the important responsibility of continuing the Soviet ruble.
Speaking of the ruble, it has a history of nearly 70 years. In 1924, the Soviet Union carried out currency reform for the first time after the alliance. In January 1961, currency reform was implemented again and a new ruble was issued. Its gold content was set at 0.987412 grams, which is equivalent to the US dollar.
The exchange rate is set at 0.9 rubles per US dollar.
For nearly 30 years since then, the exchange rate has basically remained at this level without much change.
On April 24, 1985, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union held a plenary session, which concluded that "the country is on the verge of crisis and must undergo fundamental changes and transformations."
So under the leadership of Gorbachev, after two years of planning, the Soviet Union began a series of political and economic system reforms. It proposed a strategy of "accelerating economic development", but the results were counterproductive. Due to delayed agricultural reforms, food supply was tight.
Delaying the reform of ownership affected the enthusiasm for reform. After experiencing various reform plans, the Soviet Union accelerated the process of disintegration.
As the former Soviet Union came to the brink of disintegration, the official ruble exchange rate depreciated for the first time in 30 years on November 1, 1990, from 0.6 rubles per US dollar to 1.80 rubles per US dollar.
Now, after the complete disintegration of the Soviet Union, the official exchange rate of the ruble has dropped to 2 rubles per US dollar.
It can be said that in this year alone, the ruble has depreciated more than three times!
Under such circumstances, when the future of the ruble is unclear, how could Chu Yunsong think of opening a bank in Russia? The investment would be worth it. At best, it would be in vain. But opening a bank is really a bottomless pit.
No matter how much money you put in, it won’t be enough to compensate you.
Once the environment in Russia deteriorates, bank collapse will only happen overnight.
"I really don't have the courage, and in the eyes of Russians, Chinese may not be that popular." Chu Yunsong shook his head and finally declined Ye Kai's suggestion.
Ye Kai knew that if he wanted to move Chu Yunsong, he must show some sincerity and some insights, otherwise how could he possibly convince him. You must know that Chu Yunsong is also known as the most visionary financial expert in the country.
He has assisted senior management in formulating many financial policies, and a few words will definitely not convince him.
Especially since he is Ye Kai's soon-to-be father-in-law, he has an advantage in terms of status.
What Chu Yunsong is most worried about is that the Russian ruble cannot hold on. If it enters the Russian financial system at this time, the chance of failure is very high.
"What if I say this is a very good opportunity to make money?" Ye Kai thought about it for a moment and then asked Chu Yunsong.
"I can't use the country's money to bet whether what you say is true." Chu Yunsong answered simply.
Ye Kai nodded, understanding that Chu Yunsong's decision was actually quite normal. As the head of a large commercial bank, Chu Yunsong had unprecedented influence and control over the Construction and Development Bank. At the same time, he also
Bearing great political risks.
After all, the Construction and Development Bank, as a relatively simple commercial bank, is of great significance to the construction projects in the provinces south of the Yangtze River. It is impossible for Chu Yunsong to take great risks to participate in matters in Russia where the situation is uncertain.
, although it is also important to open up business in a new region, as Russia, where the political trend and economic situation are equally unclear, it is very inappropriate for Chu Yunsong.
As Chu Yunsong said, he cannot risk the country's money.
However, without the participation of banks, it would be difficult for Ye Kai to profit from the depreciation of the ruble. He is indeed not very good at finance. Although he knows some superficial knowledge, he has not studied these matters carefully, so he fell silent for a while.
, After a while, Ye Kai asked, "Uncle Chu, if I determine that the ruble will depreciate significantly in the next two years, what means should I use to obtain the maximum benefit from this incident?"
"Oh, are you sure the ruble will depreciate significantly?" Chu Yunsong was stunned after hearing this.
To be honest, there are no signs of a sharp depreciation of the ruble.
The economic performance of the Soviet Union in the past two years can be said to have been terrible. After its disintegration, it only devalued more than three times. Now most analysts believe that the ruble's depreciation should have reached its end.
With the rise of Russian President Yeltsin, this seemingly courageous and sharp-minded leader should be able to quickly reverse Russia's economic situation and put the economy on the right track by relying on his close relationship with political figures in Western countries. So we say
Everyone believes that the ruble will gradually stabilize and return to a more rational exchange rate.
At this time, Ye Kai actually put forward the idea that the ruble would depreciate significantly in the next two years. This was obviously contrary to the ideas of mainstream analysts, so Chu Yunsong was very curious about his ideas.
Yes, Chu Yunsong admires Ye Kai, but he will never listen to anything Ye Kai says. In that case, Chu Yunsong will not be an economist, financier or banker, but a complete brain-dead man.
.
Of course, this does not prevent Chu Yunsong from understanding Ye Kai's thoughts and see if what he said makes sense?
As a qualified scholar, he is very clear about the principle of listening and understanding. It is beneficial to listen more to others. Moreover, Ye Kai himself is also a young man who has created many miracles.
"Yes, I can conclude that the ruble will plummet within two years, falling to a miserable level." Ye Kai said clearly, "Do you still remember how dilapidated the economy was before Chiang Kai-shek was defeated in Taiwan?
? The situation in Russia will not be better than his situation at that time."
"How is that possible?!" Chu Yunsong couldn't believe it after hearing this.
At that time, Chiang Kai-shek was defeated and left Taiwan. The mainland's economy had indeed been ruined by him. Inflation reached an incredible level. You could buy a meal in the morning, but you could only buy one or two meters in the evening. It can be said that the banknotes had just
When I took it home, it had already lost half of its value.
No matter how bad the situation in Russia is, the foundation laid by the powerful Soviet Union will not be hollowed out, right? It should be no problem to cope with the current economic crisis and hold on until Russia rises again.
"I heard that Russian President Yeltsin has planned to carry out monetary system reform in order to cope with the current economic crisis." Ye Kai revealed another major news, which surprised Chu Yunsong.
As an economist, Chu Yunsong naturally knows that any reform of the monetary system is an unfair redistribution of wealth.
Free market economy is a word that sounds very moving, and Russian President Yeltsin is a person who firmly adheres to this principle. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he began market economic reforms. With his firm persistence, there was no plan and no
Privatization of standard state-owned enterprises began to be gradually promoted.
Under seemingly fair conditions, the Soviet Union's original state-owned enterprises were equally divided among everyone. According to relevant data, each Soviet citizen at that time was allocated about 100,000 to 150,000 rubles of state-owned assets. Of course, based on the state-owned enterprises
Forms of shareholding reform and securitization.
Under current conditions, 100,000 to 150,000 rubles is a large amount of wealth, equivalent to about 50,000 to 75,000 US dollars.
However, when the Soviet people reveled collectively, they forgot one thing, that is, what they received was only securitized wealth on paper, and what was even more frightening was that these securities were all denominated in Soviet rubles.
While carrying out state-owned enterprise and exchange rate reforms, the Soviet Union began a disorderly financial opening.
Internationally renowned investment banks, commercial banks, and insurance institutions began to swarm in, and their business outlets and institutions sprung up all over the Soviet Union and Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Modern management, private banking services, international standard settlement, fragrant coffee, high-end business premises and charming smiles, everything looks so beautiful.
Various foreign banks used a set of marketing methods honed in the markets of developed countries to attract deposits at high interest rates and buy up the ruble savings of Soviet enterprises.
The Soviet state-owned banks, which always had to wait in line, were abandoned, and the Soviet people's deposits underwent a large transfer.
When the Russian people, businesses, financial institutions and even the Russian Central Bank briefly enjoyed a "free lunch" and fragrant coffee, and breathed the fresh air of the free market, a real financial robbery was also unknowingly taking place.
Started to close the net.
Ye Kai knew very well that when the rubles borrowed by Russian depositors and state-owned banks for the massive short-selling of the ruble were in place, the tragic fate of the ruble began.
Soon after, the Russian media, which has been controlled by foreign forces, will pessimize the ruble on a large scale, and "research reports" on the state-owned enterprises of the former Soviet Union will begin to flood the international financial community.
Arguments such as "State-owned enterprises of the former Soviet Union have no ability to survive at all", "Bonds of state-owned enterprises of the former Soviet Union are seriously overvalued", "The ruble needs to be repriced", and "The ruble should adopt a freer market-based float" will become increasingly popular.
Can the ruble hold up under such pressure?
The answer is obviously no. Ye Kai believes without a doubt that the depreciation of the ruble will be out of control! (To be continued)