Chapter 1083 Guessing the Number Showdown (Second 2)
"Mr. Jing?" Feng Bujue immediately understood the meaning of the title, "Oh... it's Hua Lian (in Peking Opera, "Jing" is usually referred to as Hua Lian, Zheng Jing, Fu Jing, Wu Jing corresponds to Da Hua Lian, Er Hua Lian, Wu Hua Lian
/武二花)?"
"Don't be poor like me." Mr. Jing was a little surprised that Brother Jue got the meaning of his title, but he had no intention of continuing to talk to him about this issue. "What do you call me? Crow's Mouth?"
"Okay." Feng Bujue smiled openly, "Just call me 'Crow Mouth'."
"Hmph..." Mr. Jing snorted coldly, "Then, I will start asking questions now, Crow Mouth."
As he spoke, he picked up the paper and pen in front of him.
"Please." Feng Bujue was holding a cup of drink and leaning on the table with one elbow (the height of the cart is about 1.25 meters, and adults within the average height range can use their elbows to rest on the table as long as they lean forward.
take a break), responded very easily.
…………
According to the rules, the number guessing game is divided into two rounds. In the first round, the party that proposes the challenge calls the bet and guesses the solution, while the party that accepts the challenge is responsible for setting the question.
In each game, there are "two parts" that need to be called:
In the first part, the guessing party "declares" and guesses the correct answer within "a few rounds". Then the question-producing party makes a bet according to the number of rounds given by the other party. The minimum bet must not be lower than the start of the duel.
1% of its total gold holdings at that time; the bet amount after this call is fixed, and the guessing party cannot make further bets and must follow up.
For example...for example, the guesser declares that he can guess the answer "within five rounds". Obviously, the probability of such a thing is almost zero; at this time, the guesser will definitely call him directly
The maximum bet that can be called, and the challenger must also follow up (if the money is not as much as the other party, refer to Rule 2 mentioned by the organizer, bet everything and continue the duel).
Then, when the duel is "completely over", the two sides will settle the fee based on the final number of rounds.
Of course, the above situation is unlikely to occur...
Because the betting in "this part", that is, the "betting on the round" part, generally gives money to the guessing party.
As long as the guessing party says an exaggerated number of "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds" when announcing the answer, it will basically be a guaranteed win. Therefore, this part of the bet will be called by the party that made the question... In the face of
With that kind of number, the question maker will definitely only bid the lowest bet he can bid.
In other words, after the outcome of this round, as long as the guessing party does not lose everything during the duel and loses the qualification, then at the settlement, it is basically possible to safely get back a small amount of money from the party that gave the question.
.
This setting is mainly set up considering that the guessing party is obviously at a disadvantage in the duel.
Next, let’s look at the call notes for “Second Part”:
This part is repeated during the duel...that is, every round, the guessing party must make a bet. Similarly...the amount of each bet cannot be less than 1% of its upper limit of holdings.
; The question maker has two options: first, follow the bet; second, surrender.
To follow the bet naturally means to let the game continue; and to "surrender" means that the question maker admits defeat, and after he pays the corresponding fine, the game ends.
If the rule of "betting on the round" is to protect the guesser, then the rule of "surrender" is naturally to protect the person who asked the question.
Let's give an example... If there is no "surrender" option, then all guessers can use a very simple tactic to ensure that they win money, that is, start from the first round. Each round only bets the minimum amount.
bet, and then bet all your remaining money on the round when you are guaranteed to guess correctly.
According to this tactic, as long as the guesser can guess the answer within fifty rounds, the guesser will be invincible; this does not include the amount of "round bets" before the start of each round.
Therefore, there is the "surrender" setting.
Of course, there are limits to "surrender", otherwise the question maker can take advantage of this to achieve a guaranteed win... For example, if you suddenly surrender after ten to twenty rounds of the game, you can just say hello.
receive.
In order to prevent this from happening, there is a "surrender fine".
In this number-guessing showdown, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender penalty.
The first type is applicable to the situation of surrender within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel * (50 + the number of completed rounds)% + the amount of the opponent's bet in this round
10% + base penalty.
The second type is the formula used from the 21st round: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel* (50-number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round +
Basic penalty.
The so-called "basic penalty" is divided according to the current number of rounds. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 1-10 is 5% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 11-20 is
At the beginning of the duel, 10% of the amount held by the opponent will rise to 20% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel in rounds 21-30... And starting from the 31st round, the basic penalty will directly return to zero.
Let's take another example... In a certain game, both sides held $100,000 at the beginning, and the guesser bet 1% in each round. After thirty rounds, a total of $30,000 was lost; then, in the third round
After eleven rounds, he was sure of winning. At this time, he bet all the remaining 70,000 US dollars.
Seeing this, the person who asked the question chose to surrender... At this time, the penalty that the person who asked the question needed to pay was 10% of the one hundred thousand US dollars multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, that is, 2,000 US dollars... plus the opponent's current round.
10% of the bet amount, which is 7,000 US dollars... plus the basic penalty of zero, the total amount paid is 9,000 US dollars.
Although it was nine thousand spit out at once, it was much better than seventy thousand.
In short, when the questioner chooses to surrender, the game ends. Looking at the above example, the result is that the questioner wins 21,000 US dollars from the guesser.
After completing this part of the settlement, both parties will proceed to settle the "bet on the number of rounds". Assume that the guessing party previously declared "within a hundred rounds" and the question maker bid the lowest $1,000, then... at this time
The party who gave the question will then give the guesser another 1,000 US dollars, and the final winner will be 20,000 US dollars.
The above is the general plot of how the question maker chooses the time to surrender through the behavior of "guessing the solution and increasing the bet" under "normal circumstances".
So... under the same conditions, what would happen if the question maker chooses the "just give it up" tactic?
I won't list the detailed calculation process here, let's look at the results directly... Let's deduce it based on the conditions that both parties have 100,000 US dollars, and the guesser bets 1,000 each time
If the questioner surrenders in the first round (note that the extra percentage in the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), he loses 10100, and in the second round it is 10200, and increases every round thereafter.
100 US dollars. Until the tenth round.
In other words, if the question maker surrenders in any of the first ten rounds, he will lose money.
At the beginning of the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic fine, the fine for surrender in this round jumped to 16,100, and an additional 100 was added for each round thereafter; in this way, by the eighteenth round, the question maker will have the "good news"
If you surrender in this round, the penalty will be 16,800, and the amount earned in the previous seventeen rounds was 17,000, so you will earn 200, but... don't forget that there is still money for "betting on rounds".
If you include that, you still lose... So you have to wait for another round, and by the 19th round, you will earn 18,000, with a fine of 16,900 + a betting round of 1,000. At this time, you can barely make a profit of 100...
Therefore, in the first twenty rounds, if you want to "win", you have only two opportunities, that is, surrender in the nineteenth and twentieth rounds. According to the formula, the former can earn 100, and the latter can earn
1000…
But... it's rare for you to be a question maker, and you'll be done with it if you make a thousand dollars? Don't forget that this game is about "first in line", and it doesn't mean that you can qualify without losing money.
So, let’s take a look at the situation at the beginning of the twenty-first round...
At the beginning of this round, the formula changed, but the basic penalty also increased again. The penalty for surrender in the twenty-first round was 100, and it was reduced by 100 for each round thereafter; obviously... From this round on, the surrender mechanism began to tend to protect the outcome.
Because after twenty rounds, the guesser’s chance of guessing the answer is getting higher and higher.
In this way, if you include the 1,000 for the betting round, "round 25" will be a watershed; the fine for this round is 22,700, plus the 1,000 for the betting round, it is 700, but the money the question maker won...
...is 24,000; of course, this is only a profit of 300, so this is not the point...
The key point is that starting from this round, every time the question maker suddenly surrenders, the winning amount will increase by 1,100 US dollars.
After six rounds of this, in the thirty-first round, the "basic penalty" returns to zero, and the question maker suddenly has an extra 20,000. In this round, if the guesser does not raise the bet, the question maker will surrender directly.
The fine was only 2,100 US dollars, and the money he had won at this moment was already 30,000 US dollars. Even if the money from the gambling round was removed, he still made a net profit of 26,900 US dollars...
To sum up, the key confrontation of this number guessing game is between the twenty-fifth and thirtieth rounds... If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the thirty-fifth round, then the question maker
As long as you surrender immediately, you can definitely earn 29% of your chips. Even if you happen to guess it on the 31st round, you will only recover about 10% of your losses.
Of course, even though I said a lot, they are just theories.
In an actual duel, various situations may arise...
Maybe someone can guess the answer within twenty-five rounds; maybe someone can raise the stakes to put pressure without guessing; maybe someone can guess the answer when they think they are right, or watch thirty rounds.
I forced a raise when I was about to pass, but the other party saw through and followed up...
On the gambling table, fraud, calculation, performance, discovery... anything can happen.
In the world of gambling, probability cannot learn to respect you, and the God of Luck does not exist.
The luck gained by praying ten thousand times is not as good as the skill achieved by practicing ten thousand times.
The weak will be defeated, embezzled, crushed...and will not receive any sympathy.
Win and survive... is the only justice in this world.
…………
A minute later, Mr. Jing had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.
Then, he folded the piece of paper, carefully protected it with his palm, and handed it to the man in a suit and sunglasses next to the cart.
The latter also took the paper very cautiously, turned around, and blocked Feng Bujue's sight with his broad back. Then he unfolded the paper and glanced at the numbers on the paper.
Two seconds later, the man in a suit and sunglasses folded the piece of paper again and put it in his jacket pocket.
He turned around, stood upright again facing the table, and then said to Mr. Jing: "Once the number is determined, it cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, the six numbers just now...is that okay?"
"Okay." Mr. Jing replied firmly, "I'm sure."
"Yes." The man in a suit and sunglasses nodded, "You have all read the rules, but I still want to emphasize a few points..." He paused for half a second, then continued, "First of all, if you are caught cheating, you will be sentenced immediately.
Loss, and the entire amount belongs to the other party." As he spoke, he stretched out his hand to gesture to a small device on the table, "Secondly, the timer on the table is similar to the one used in chess games, recording the time between both sides.
Time; the guesser's total time is forty-five minutes. If the answer is not guessed within this time, no matter which round is currently in progress, the amount of money on both sides, and the amount of the 'bet round'...
Even if the guesser is 'completely defeated', all the loser's holdings will also belong to the other party." He paused and then said, "In addition, the guesser's call time, the question maker's call time, and
The time for the question maker to give feedback to the guesser's answer is calculated separately. Calling and following must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds; those who violate the rules for the first time will be punished.
The penalty of 1% of the holding limit at the beginning will be removed, and the penalty for the second time will be 2%, and so on..."
The rules emphasized by the man in the suit are indeed very important. Needless to say, the punishment for cheating... As for the situation of "malicious delaying time", the organizer has naturally considered it when designing the game. At a high cost
Under this situation, the ugly and lack of technical content of "delaying time" means is basically less likely to appear.
In this way, the rhythm of the game can be kept tight and create considerable pressure...
The various behaviors of the "guests" under pressure are exactly what the organizers want to see.
