Indeed, Black Butterfly's chances of winning are already very slim.
In the game of neurasthenia, the advantage in memory ability is the most intuitive advantage. In this regard... Black Butterfly cannot be compared with Feng Bujue.
However, there is another factor that can determine the outcome, and that is...luck.
In the round just now, although Feng Bujuehao scored 24 points, as he said, based on his "absolute memory", such a score is not too exaggerated from a probability perspective.
Except for the 9 points that must be scored, the remaining points can be regarded as a case of "five of the six flops with gradually decreasing probability were successful", and this "gradually decreasing probability" is about 20%.
It dropped to 7% and then ended.
From this point of view, what he did in this round... should be attributed to the category of "good luck".
There is nothing special about this, so this is not "gambling", just a "game". Brother Jue considers it a "boring" game.
In addition, when this round ended, his seemingly "good" luck had actually changed the direction of the wind...
Because the cards Feng Bujue turned over in the last three hands were all cards with "one suit already revealed"; that is to say, when he finally changed hands, the "known two-phase cards" on the table
"The number increased from three pairs to six pairs.
In addition, the number of unknown cards on the table has decreased... When the opponent turns over unknown cards now, the probability of finding a scoreable card has once again increased to more than 15%.
…………
The eleventh round is the round where Black Butterfly flops the cards.
After Brother Jue cleared the table, there were not many known cards left, so Black Butterfly became more confident about the suits of those cards.
In the first hand, she still followed her own rhythm and turned over a new card closer to the known card.
As a result, this is a card with "two aspects already known", that is, a "scorable card".
Black Butterfly doesn't have Feng Bujue's "I clearly remember it, but I can save it and use it later" kind of energy. She will definitely score points whenever she gets a chance.
Therefore, she immediately went back to find the other two phases of the new flop... and succeeded.
"This lady scores three points." The referee's announcement came immediately, "You can continue to turn over the cards."
Next move, the situation remains the same...
Black Butterfly found another scoreable card, and she quickly converted it into scores.
Next move. Still the same...
In this way, Black Butterfly calmly tied the score, and... due to the reduction in the number of cards, and in the same situation where there are only three pairs of known cards, the probability that she will find a scoreable card in the next hand is high.
At 7%.
"Ha... how about it?" At this time, Black Butterfly smiled and said to Brother Jue, "I don't have no chance at all, right?"
"Hmph... I was mentally prepared for this kind of difference in luck before the duel started." Feng Bujue responded calmly, "Anyway... before reaching 'that score', you can do as many flips as you like.
.”
"That score?" Black Butterfly heard this, thought for two seconds, and then said, "Oh~ you mean...33 points?"
Black Butterfly undoubtedly studied the rules of the game carefully before the duel began, so she knew that 33 points was a very critical score.
According to the rules, after both parties reveal a total of "twenty-five signs", the player can end the game by uncovering two "Pure Lands of Paradise" and enter the settlement stage.
So, leaving aside the huge disparity between victory and defeat, taking a game in which both sides have a certain score as an example... the twenty-five phases can be divided into twelve versus thirteen, or eleven versus fourteen.
In the case of twelve versus thirteen, the score ratio is 36 to 39. At this time, the team behind can turn over the Pure Land and add an extra 10 points. 46 to 39 can turn defeat into victory.
In the case of 11 vs. 14, the score ratio is 33 to 42. At this time, the lagging team comes out with an extra 10 points, 43 to 42, and also turns defeat into victory.
In other words, in this game, if the disadvantaged party wants to make a comeback, there is a prerequisite, that is, it must obtain at least the "eleven phase", which meets the minimum conditions for a comeback.
Theoretically the most ideal situation is: in a round with twenty-four phases revealed on the table, it is the lagging side's turn to turn over the cards. At the moment when it reveals the twenty-fifth phase, it happens to hold 33 points, and then...
...he/she reveals "Pure Land of Ultimate Bliss" again, ending the game.
For the lagging side, this is the fastest and best comeback mode. If it continues... the score gap may gradually widen, because when there are not many unknown cards left on the table, the number of scoreable cards will be turned over.
The probability will be greatly increased, and it is not impossible to find two "one-phase-clear" cards in a row. At that time, the side with stronger memory and fewer mistakes will definitely have a higher scoring rate than the opponent.
"Now that you know." Feng Bujue's tone still seemed very relaxed. Anyway, it is expected that the opponent should know the meaning of this number. There is no need to marvel, "Then please work hard in this direction."
"Heh... You don't need to tell me, I can do it too." Black Butterfly responded and continued to turn over the cards...
…………
By the end of the eleventh round, the score comparison between the two sides was 24 to 30, with Black Butterfly leading.
After that conversation, Black Butterfly turned over two more scoreable cards, consuming the two-phase cards in the known cards until only one pair remained.
Then, in the last three hands of cards... she turned out two "zero-phase cards" in a row, that is, a card with no known suit, and... she also turned out a second "zero-phase card"
"Pure Land of Ultimate Bliss".
Therefore, when this round ends, there are only two pairs of known pairs left on the table, and... the positions of the two "Pure Lands" have also been determined.
At present, the total score of the two people is 54 points, that is, the "Eighteen Signs" have been revealed, and the number of cards left on the table is 48; among them, 20 are known cards, including 2 Infernal Hell, 2 Pure Land,
It consists of 4 cards with "both phases are clear" and 12 cards with "one phase is clear".
There are 28 unknown cards in total, namely 2 Infernal Affairs cards and 26 Xiang cards.
In other words, at the beginning of the twelfth round, the probability that Feng Bujue could find a scoreable card among the unknown cards was 2/28, which was basically the same as the probability that he failed in the previous round.
, only about 7%...
Seeing this, some people will definitely say, can't he just turn over the unknown cards? Can't he just turn over three known cards and then throw the same situation to the opponent?
The answer is yes, but...it doesn't solve the problem.
According to the "Flop Rules" of [Triple Nervous Breakdown], players must turn over at least one unknown card in three consecutive rounds, otherwise they will be fined five points.
The purpose of this rule is to prevent players from consuming their chances of turning over cards by constantly turning over cards that have appeared before. As for why it is "three consecutive rounds", it is naturally because some people will misremember the cards.
This leads to the situation of "turning over three known cards and scoring no points"; in this case, the person who fails to attack for two consecutive rounds will risk penalty points on the third time...
Based on the example at hand, if Feng Bujue chooses to turn over three known cards in this round to consume his right to turn over, then when it is Black Butterfly's turn, the opponent can also do the same... Anyway, Black Butterfly doesn't matter.
, as the party with weaker memory ability, she is very happy to see both parties constantly pulling out old cards to help her consolidate her memory.
Besides, she is the "late attacker". In a situation where no one is willing to reveal a new card, the second attacker has at least a "one card" advantage, because the first attacker will definitely reveal one more new card than the opponent.
Card.
Of course, Feng Bujue was not the kind of person who would deliberately turn over known cards to defend himself.
Real gamblers and scoundrels all know... you can't win with that approach.
For example, the game where Brother Jue cheated Jin Mianchou in the number guessing game... What if he was thinking about "What if I only guessed three or four numbers?" or "The opponent really made it to the seventh round."
What should I do?" Then he will retreat, avoid... and in the end, he will lose.
The devils on the gambling table will not respond to the demands of the weak. On the contrary, they will devour those people...
Giving in, avoiding, giving up thinking, and instead praying and begging in your heart will only lead to failure and destruction.
Those who can win must be convinced at that moment that "I will definitely be able to guess more than 5 numbers." If you fail to guess, you may die, but dying... doesn't matter.
Only this kind of will can guide "luck" and summon "victory".
…………
"Ah...as expected..."
Round 12, first hand. The unknown card Feng Bujue turned over... was a "One Phase Ming".
At this moment, he has two options: the first one is a safer way to give up on renewing the cards and turn over the two known cards to end his round. In this way, he only adds a pair of known pairs to the opponent.
, and one unknown card is reduced. When Black Butterfly attacks, the probability of finding a scoreable card in the first hand is three-in-twenty-seven, about 11%.
Another more risky approach is to turn over another unknown card. If the card turned up in the second hand is the same as the suit in the first hand, he can score points.
So... what's the success rate of doing this? And what's the risk of failure?
It can be calculated from the known cards that among the 27 unknown cards at this moment, 22 are pairs, that is, cards with "one phase already known", 3 cards with "two phases already known", and 2
Zhang is the hell card.
If Feng Bujue wants to score, he must turn over the "Foot Heel Guangping Xiang" he turned over first in this round, and the probability of it is only about 3%; if he cannot turn over, he faces three possibilities...
…
First, he has an 81% chance of turning over a "clear" card, and then gives the opponent a known pair, which increases the opponent's probability of turning over a scoreable card the next time he turns over to more than 15%.
Second, he has a 7% chance of turning over one of the other two "two-phased" cards, giving the opponent a direct 100% chance to score in the next round.
Third, the probability is also 7%, he will turn over the hell card, and this... is the best result. In this way, the probability of the opponent drawing a scoreable card will rise to 11.5%, which is not a much increase.
To sum up, no matter how you look at it, it is better to choose a safe approach here.
But……
"If this trend continues, if I turn over another card, it will probably be..." Feng Bujue muttered as he turned over the second unknown card.
As a result, he turned over a "two phases are clear" card.
Because he has turned over the cards twice this round, and the suits are different, it is impossible to score. Therefore, the card he turned over can basically be determined to be the opponent's score.
"Hmm... It seems that the luck is completely on your side." Feng Bujue saw the worst outcome, but he looked nonchalant, "I guess you will get more than 6 points in the next round."
As he said this, he turned over the third card before the other party could respond.
What's incredible is that...he actually turned over another unknown card; this time, he turned out "One Phase Clear", so there was another pair of clear pairs on the table.
"What on earth does this guy want to do..." Black Butterfly couldn't understand, and she thought to herself, "I can understand it second-hand... A man like him, who is so arrogant and narcissistic, may indeed do something..."
At this moment, I try to take a chance with a sense of luck; but in the third hand... when it is impossible to score and will almost certainly give me more advantages, he still turns over unknown cards?"
"Please..." The next second, Feng Bujue's voice interrupted Black Butterfly's thoughts, "I know what you are thinking... Haha... You don't have to hesitate about things that you can't understand. You
It's better to get the points you deserve before your memory becomes blurry. If you make a mistake here... then it will be too easy for me to win." (To be continued.)
