This envelope made me curious because it was mailed from the securities investment research and consulting department of a well-known international investment bank. It looked like an internal macro research reference report. This kind of macro report is generally not clear
We recommend stocks, but you also know that the Chinese stock market is called the "policy market". It is early July 2007, and a month ago, the famous "chicken crows in the middle of the night" incident occurred in the early morning of May 30th——
——The stamp tax on stock transactions was suddenly raised from one thousandth to three thousandths, which not only surprised everyone, but also caused the Shanghai Composite Index in China's stock market to fall sharply after breaking through the 4,000-point mark. What will happen next?
How to go about it, I'm also curious about what real experts would think.
I opened the envelope and found a research report inside.
The report stated: It is not expected that the introduction of stamp duty will change the upward trend of China's stock market in the future, because the main funds, such as state-owned enterprise funds, public funds, and social security funds, have not yet been released. In order to ensure the funds of these "national teams",
Especially for the safety of pension funds, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to climb to around 5,500 points, and may even exceed the 6,000 point mark. However, stock market investors are reminded to pay attention to a series of impacts that may be caused by U.S. subprime loans starting in April 2007.
Choose the right time to exit with arbitrage.
This report then uses detailed data to analyze and support this point of view.
What he said is correct. Since then, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to sing and advance by leaps and bounds, and finally reached a historical high of 6,124 points on October 16, 2007. At that time, countless stock commentators were clamoring to reach 10,000 points, and people squeezed through
Heading into the stock exchange, there were even countless people standing outside the glass windows, staring at the red and green stock quotation screens inside. There was a lot of people and it was really lively.
However, in the next full year, it fell back to 1664 points, and the stock market was in mourning. Many angry investors who had lost everything they had earned through hard work clamored for those bragging stock commentators to take responsibility. However, those people only
He would point to the sign hanging in the hall of every stock exchange saying "The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious" and smile without saying a word.
In June 2007, I had no idea that this crisis was imminent. What on earth caused tens of billions of Chinese investors’ funds to evaporate? Was it because of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis? Or was it because of the global financial crisis? Or was it because of our own economy?
Question? I don’t know. Any crazy feast of mankind, whether it is the South Sea bubble crisis in the UK, tulip speculation in the Netherlands, or Japan’s real estate bubble in the 1980s, including China’s speculation on stamps, gold and silver coins and phone cards in the 1990s, and tea speculation in the 2000s.
, orchids, mahogany, etc., ultimately cannot escape the fate of the bubble bursting.
Looking back on those tragic histories that had no other option but to end in rupture, I can only silently wish those who are still considering buying a house a safe journey and good luck.
Closer to home, although I still don’t know what caused the stock market crash in 2007-2008, I never thought at the time that what I did later might actually be the cause of the super crash in the stock market.
one.
The report in my hand at that time was all about stating opinions and demonstrating opinions; but the following paragraph aroused my interest. In this paragraph, which begins with "Next, answer Mr. Chen's question"
Mentioned: From various signs and communication with upper-level people, we know that China’s stock index futures market is likely to be opened in two years.
Stock index futures!
It turned out that this report was actually a reply letter, answering the questions that Chen Ziqi had previously raised to this famous investment consulting agency. What Chen Ziqi was concerned about was actually when the stock index futures would be launched.
Before I was involved in this incident because of Xiao Luqi, I was a young white-collar worker working in an investment company, but I still knew a little bit about stock index futures. To put it bluntly, this thing is gambling. What you are betting on is
Whether the stock index will rise or fall in the future. If you talk about stock trading, you will make money only when the stock rises. Stock index futures trading completely subverts this thinking: futures contracts can be sold short, that is, if you bet on future stocks
If the index falls, and it does fall, you will make money.
However, the difference between stock index futures and gambling is that there is huge leverage in funds. If you go gambling, regardless of fees such as taps, 10,000 yuan can only be exchanged for chips with a face value of 10,000 yuan. But you can use
A fraction of the money or even less, use leverage to leverage huge benefits or risks. Once you make a profit, it will be a huge benefit that will drive you crazy; of course, the risk will also increase exponentially with the leverage: if it falls a little
, as long as you have no money to continue to follow up, your position will be forced to be liquidated, and all the money invested will be gone.
However, any game based on gambling has one thing in common, that is, there are always people who want to play tricks and manipulate the situation.
Whether stock index futures make money or lose money depends on the rise and fall of the stock market. In the final analysis, the rise and fall of the stock market depends on the confidence of the market and whether people dare to buy and hold stocks, or whether they sell out of fear.
Sell out stocks.
If Chen Ziqi masters the method of resurrecting Qin Shihuang and announces this news to the public, what impact will it have on China? Maybe the actual impact will not be much, but a cruel man who has been dead for more than two thousand years is known to almost everyone.
**The monarch is suddenly resurrected. How much impact will such an incredible event have on the people's psychology? In fact, what he values is this kind of psychological impact. If Qin Shihuang is really resurrected, China's stock index will definitely fall crazily. If that
At that time, stock index futures had been opened, and Chen Ziqi had already established a large number of short positions in advance. The worse the stock index fell, the more he made. This is the leverage power of small and large.
Thinking of this, the sweat on my forehead can't help but trickle down. If Chen Ziqi just wants to become the richest man in the world, that's it. However, there is a term called the butterfly effect, which means that a butterfly flapping its wings on one side of the earth triggers
The air flow may trigger a catastrophic storm on the other side of the earth through a series of chain reactions. If Qin Shihuang is resurrected, how many butterflies will this event be equivalent to flapping their wings together? How many unforeseen disasters will this event trigger?
I can't imagine it anymore. Before, my attention was focused on how much Qin Shihuang himself could do, but looking at it from another perspective, the impact of this incident has already surpassed Qin Shihuang himself.
Even if he resurrected Qin Shihuang and sent him back to the tomb with a knife, the impact of this incident is no longer controllable by any one person.
I once again buried my head in my hands in pain and thought: If this is true, then... that antidote is the fuse of an unprecedented turmoil. Whoever masters it will have the power to subvert the world.
.Do I really want to help this demon realize his ambition in order to resurrect a goddess in my heart?
At this moment, Chen Ziqi suddenly opened the door and came in.
I didn't make any panic or hidden moves. I took the report naturally and said to him: "This is a well-written document with clear arguments and sufficient evidence." After saying that, I handed it to him smoothly.
Chen Ziqi took it, browsed it quickly, and said, "Well, it's really good and very forward-looking." After that, he looked at me meaningfully.
I replied easily: "It is a bold statement to predict that the Shanghai Composite Index can reach 6,000 points, but judging from these data, it may not be impossible to achieve. But it is hard to say what will happen next."
Chen Ziqi smiled and said, "Mr. Lin is also very interested in stocks?"
I nodded and said, "I've been in this line of work before, so I know a little bit about it."
While he was talking, Feng Si, who still had a bandage on his finger, opened the door and came in, asking: "How to deal with Yang Zixi's matter?"
Chen Ziqi's eyes flashed fiercely, and he said coldly: "What else can you say about this kind of traitor? Just drag him down below."
Feng Si responded, glared at me, and went out.
I felt nervous. If Cao Wenwen was not Chen Ziqi's person, and I found something wrong with her, I would probably drag her to the basement, give her an injection and hang her up as a display. In this way, I was trying to determine Cao Wenwen's true purpose.
Before, I had to continue dealing with her.
Chen Ziqi asked me: "When are you going to check on that mustache?"
I shook my head and said: "After yesterday's incident, he will definitely alert the enemy. This matter needs to be slowed down a little."
Chen Ziqi said "hmm" and said, "Then I'll leave it to Mr. Lin to handle this matter with his full authority."
I scolded this guy for being hypocritical. Mingying had already seen Li Qianyu near Xingzhong Primary School. It was obvious that she was hunting for that green-faced moustache. Are you still here pretending to be cool? I felt unhappy and said: "Okay. Xiaoyu
Where is it? I still need to confirm something with her."
Chen Ziqi looked slightly embarrassed and said, "She went to deal with a traitor's situation."
"Is this the Yang Zixi that Feng Si mentioned just now?"
"Yes."
"Boss Chen, you have a big business and a lot of people under you. I don't even have a name now, and I don't know who I can call upon. Look..."
"I've asked Xiaoyu to handle this. She will hand it over to you around evening time. By the way, the nurse hired for you," Chen Ziqi glanced at the folding bed where Cao Wenwen slept, and said, "Why don't you do your best?"
Isn’t there a place?”
"Not yet," I said with a cupped hand, "I would also like to thank Boss Chen for taking the trouble to arrange it. She went back to visit relatives today."
"This is such a small thing, it's nothing to worry about," Chen Ziqi said elegantly, "Mr. Lin, have a good rest. I'll take my leave first." After that, he took the report and turned around and walked out the door.
"It's really exhausting to talk to this guy." I thought so, sitting quietly on the bed, flipping through my phone. How is the progress on Mingying's side, whether Li Qianyu discovered her, and whether Cao Wenwen was sent by Chen Ziqi to me.
The spy around me, how much does she know about my conversation with Li Haibo, will she report me to Chen Ziqi, what is the relationship between that dark and thin guy and Chen Ziqi... All these things, I believe that only tonight will be revealed
result.
The matter has come to this, let it come and go. In this case, it is better to sleep for a while.
Near dinner time, Li Qianyu walked into my room with a dark face and asked: "What's wrong with you?"
As soon as she said these words, I was stunned on the spot. I knew that if I didn't answer this question well, I would become meat on the iron hook in a minute, and it would become bacon by December. But my face was still calm and authentic.