In a blink of an eye, the traditional Chinese New Year festival has arrived. The Spring Festival is Bai Shuo’s favorite festival. It’s not because of his tradition, but because since brothers and friends have been scattered all over the country, it is basically the only festival where they can have the opportunity to gather together. No, Zhong Pengcheng and others
All the friends who had been scattered abroad had returned to the capital of Shu early. Xiao Zhen had only returned to the imperial capital not long ago, so he stayed on duty in the capital this year. The gathering of brothers and friends during this New Year festival seemed very lively.
On New Year's Eve, the second uncle's family also came to Bai Shuo's house to celebrate the New Year. Because Xiao Zhen was alone in the capital of Shu, Bai Shuo specially invited Xiao Zhen to his home. Bai's father was also extremely surprised by Xiao Zhen's arrival.
Xiao Zhen's background was not mentioned to the family, but even a deputy county magistrate like Xiao Zhen was enough to make Bai's father feel proud. Xiao Zhen was able to experience the New Year's family in a foreign land.
The atmosphere was also very happy, and I specially brought two bottles of Maotai brought from my father's house. We had a great New Year's Eve dinner, and the two bottles of Maotai were served by Bai's father, second uncle, Bai Shuo, Xiao Zhen and Bai Shuo's second uncle's family.
My cousin Li Fei divided the meal among the five of them. Feeling that they were still a little unenjoyed, the three juniors each opened two bottles of beer. After the meal, the whole family made a homely meal. Bai Shuo's cousin Li Fei has been working in the real estate industry.
Bai Shuo took the initiative to discuss the situation of Huaguo's real estate. Unexpectedly, facing the great situation, Li Fei became increasingly crazy about the situation.
The housing prices have expressed deep concern, believing that the current houses have gradually deviated from their function for people to live in and have become investment products, and this is getting worse. When a thing breaks away from its original function and becomes an object of speculation
When the time comes, a crisis will follow. Xiao Zhen also said that because of its particularity, the real estate industry may be the focus of national control for a long time in the future. It cannot allow unrealistic and crazy growth.
We cannot let the bubble burst. This is a propositional test of the country's ability to govern and control the economy. Bai Shuo thought of the ups and downs of real estate in China's later generations. Although the government tried hard to reduce the influence of real estate on the economy, it always failed.
It is difficult to get rid of the kidnapping of a series of industrial chains. At the same time, I also think of the huge crisis caused by the collapse of real estate in the United States. Hmm? The real estate crisis in the United States? It seems to be something not long ago in my memory.
On the first, second, and third day of the lunar new year, almost everyone visited relatives and friends. On the fourth day of the lunar month, Cao An, Zhu Zhu, Zhong Pengcheng and others all fled from home. Finally, it was time for the brothers to reunite. Luo Xihu went back to his hometown.
But the key to the bar was given to Bai Shuo and the others. This place became a private place for the brothers. That night, Bai Shuo and his friends, plus Liang Ying and Liang Ying's two friends, gathered here to have a drink. Liang Ying's
One of the two friends is Liu Shu, who went to study in the United States, and the other is Kevin, a computer genius who has been secretly helping Liang Ying. Liu Shu is originally from Shudu, and he is going home to celebrate the New Year this time, while Kevin is from Hong Kong.
Islander, this time he went to Shudu to meet with Liang Ying. Bai Shuo recalled that Liang Ying had said before that one of his classmates studying finance in the United States had mentioned to him the hidden economic dangers in the United States, and it was confirmed that,
Liu Shu was indeed the economics genius Liang Ying mentioned before, which immediately aroused Bai Shuo's interest. After drinking for three times, everyone started to communicate in small groups. Bai Shuo, Liang Ying, Liu Shu, and Zhong Pengcheng were four.
They focused on economic issues in a corner. Cao An and Kevin had a spark in computer networks. One of them was biased towards technology, the other was keen on applications, and they felt like they had met too late.
Zhuzi and several other brothers were playing dice, drinking, and singing in the hall.
"Are you so sure that the real estate sector will be the first to cause problems for the U.S. economy?" Liu Shu asked Bai Shuo in a corner of the bar after pondering for a long time.
"I'm actually not sure about this, it's just a feeling. On New Year's Eve, a cousin of mine who works in real estate also expressed concerns about China's real estate. If there is a risk of bubbles in China's real estate, I think so
There will be greater risks in the United States now. Moreover, various financial derivatives in the United States are more mature and complex than those in China. These things have been driving the rapid development of the real estate, finance, and insurance industries in the United States, but in fact this is not the case.
It increases its risk in a disguised way. I think it is time to pay off the debt. If the bubble reaches a height that cannot be higher, it is bound to collapse one day. Just imagine if there is a systemic collapse in the real estate industry in the United States.
If it collapses, how much impact will it have on the world economy?" Bai Shuo expressed his thoughts.
Liu Shu said in surprise: "Actually, my mentor has also concluded that there will be systemic risks in U.S. real estate. Now those people on Wall Street are really a group of lunatics. They have designed countless financial instruments to support the continued growth of real estate.
Nowadays, many people who do not have the conditions to buy a house can easily buy a house without any pressure. If house prices last for a long time, then none of this will be a problem, but if the house prices reach a day when they cannot rise, it will be difficult to think about the current construction of this house.
How fragile the whole system would be."
At this time, Zhong Pengcheng said: "There is an old saying in China that the authorities are obsessed with it. As far as I know, a mathematician has conducted mathematical quantitative deductions on the housing loan system in the United States that Liu Shu mentioned. From a financier's theory,
Although there are risks in loans, insurance, MBS mortgage securities and the like, they believe that these probabilities cannot explode at the same time. As long as the probabilities are balanced, they will never have any big risks. However, they believe that these probabilities cannot explode at the same time.
After doing mathematical calculations, the mathematician found that their set of things completely ignored the existence of systemic risks. Just like Bai Shuo said, if housing prices rise to an unbearable level, leading to the emergence of systemic risks,
Then which derivative products will in turn become the last straw that crushes the U.S. real estate and even insurance and financial systems."
"MBS mortgage securities are still child's play. In order to further avoid risks and obtain profits, they have now come up with things like CDO and CDS on this basis. Ordinary people have no idea what these things are.
, even the top regulatory officials may not be able to play the game well, they are completely messed up by those on Wall Street." Liu Shu added.
"Yes, it's mortgage securities, and those subprime loans. If there are problems with real estate in the United States, prices cannot go up, and everyone cannot repay their loans, it will inevitably lead to a crisis in subprime mortgage institutions, and then cause problems in the financial and insurance systems.
Then it spread to the stock market, industry, and every country in the world, becoming a huge crisis affecting the world." Bai Shuo's thoughts seemed to be stimulated by everyone. He combined the experiences in his memory and expressed his own inference.
After hearing Bai Shuo's inference, everyone was a little unable to keep up. Liu Shu was stunned and said: "Actually, the real estate industry in the United States has been somewhat weak in development since last year. If there is a systemic problem, then Bai Shu will
The crisis that Shuo inferred is entirely possible."
Inspired by Bai Shuo, everyone collided with each other again and again. The more they talked, the more interested they became. Some things that could not be thought of at the moment were also discovered in the exchange and collision. Everyone was almost convinced that there was a high probability that something would happen in the United States.
After the huge economic crisis, Liang Ying raised a question: If this crisis occurs, what methods can be used to obtain benefits in this crisis? This is the key to turning theory into actual benefits. Also, this crisis will occur.
The specific time? Because the financial market is changing rapidly, if we cannot accurately grasp the time period, if we take action too early, we are likely to die before the opportunity arrives; if we take action too late, we may only have leftovers.
It has to be said that these two questions from Liang Ying are the key to the problem. Everyone fell into silence for a while. Afterwards, Liu Shu and Zhong Pengcheng suggested paying close attention to relevant information and institutional trends, focusing on short-selling real estate, stocks, mortgage securities, etc.
Benefits. Liu Shu also proposed to earn profits by designing gambling tools with insurance companies. These were recognized by everyone.
After thinking about it, Bai Shuo believes that everyone should make early preparations immediately. As for the time, it is recommended to use the second half of this year to the first half of next year as the action time node of this plan. Then focus on Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, and Real Estate
The specific situation of institutions such as Dimei.
Finally, Liang Ying suggested that everyone divide work and cooperate:
Liu Shu is responsible for the investigation of the real estate situation in the United States and the attention of key institutions such as Lehman Brothers, and comprehensively collects relevant information about this crisis.
Zhong Pengcheng cooperated with Liu Shu in analyzing data and information, while focusing on observing the international financial situation.
Liang Ying is responsible for the organization and operation of funds. He also suggested that the remaining cash of more than 1 million in the stock account should be used as preliminary operating funds.
Bai Shuo makes a judgment on the time of crisis outbreak based on the overall information situation.
Finally, Bai Shuo added some suggestions: Although you are the core members of this plan and mainly focus on directional things, professional things should be left to professionals. At present, each line must recruit professional talents as soon as possible to prepare for the follow-up actions.
Prepare.
At this point, a grand plan gradually took shape in such a small bar and started to run. Except for Bai Shuan, everyone still had no idea. Maybe this plan would make them the biggest lunatic in the eyes of people. If successful.
, then they will become legends.
Around this Spring Festival, there is another thing that makes Bai Shuo and Liang Ying extremely happy. It is that the popularity of Hongwan Plaza has once again risen sharply around the Spring Festival. Zheng Hong has successfully introduced a large supermarket to settle in the commercial building, and signed another contract.
Several major international brands have opened ** stores in the square. At present, all the properties under Bai Shuo's name have been successfully rented. Although the rent in the first year is not high, it also greatly reduces Bai Shuo's monthly pressure. In a small area
During the party, Liang Ying made precise calculations and concluded that if all the assets of Hongwan were sold, deducting the previous costs and principal and interest repayments, a profit of approximately 90 million yuan could be achieved. Bai Shuo heard that
He just smiled faintly. This was all expected. Yes, he was still a little short of 100 million. Who in my memory said, "Set a small goal first and earn 100 million." This caused a stir in later generations.
Uproar. Now Bai Shuo deeply feels that as long as he has the right method, this is really just a small goal.
In addition, there is another thing that Bai Shuo pays special attention to. During the Spring Festival, everyone saw Chen Bing's interview program on TV. In the program, Chen Bing appeared as a musical talent, dressed in a fashionable dress, and looked dignified.
Generous, beautiful and pure, with a gentle and touching smile, it attracted a lot of attention even though it was only a brief appearance. In the next few days, Chen Bing also released one or two singles in advance on the TV program
It was aired in the middle of the broadcast, which made everyone happy. Of course, these two songs are not the ones Bai Shuo gave to Chen Bing, because those songs are Chen Bing’s ace in hand, and there is no reason to beat Wang Bing whenever he takes action. As for
For those songs, Nie Dong also specially sent the re-arranged "Blue and White Porcelain" and other songs to Bai Shuo and asked him for his opinions. Bai Shuo listened to "Blue and White Porcelain" with emphasis. Although it was somewhat different from what he remembered, Bai Shuo
Shuo feels that this version is even better than that one because it is more in line with Chen Bing’s style.
Bai Shuo knew that Nie Dong had already started the early stage of publicity and preparation for Chen Bing's debut. He would definitely take advantage of the opportunity to launch Chen Bing's new album. After thinking about it, he decided to use his own method to help Chen Bing. Bai Shuo let
Cao An put the navy organization into operation again. In fact, Cao An's navy force has been greatly developed these days. It not only has a large number of people, but also has a strict organizational structure. If Jiang Tao's incident happened now, Cao An would
I am confident that it only takes one day to achieve the results of the previous three or four days.
Just the day after the talk show aired, a family
On S, an account published a post titled "Who is my dream lover?" The post posted a lot of photos of Chen Bing and content from talk shows. At the end of the post, the author said that he had first seen Chen Bing.
I feel like I'm in love, so I ask everyone who is this beauty? I beg you to reveal the truth.
Within a day or two, this post was forwarded like crazy, and many netizens responded:
This is the girl of my dreams, please don’t snatch her away.
Is this a human being? This should be an immortal descending to earth.
I'm also in love, brother, I'm sorry.
She seems to be a singer. Who knows what songs she has sung?
…
Of course there were some bad voices, but they were quickly drowned out by unanimous praise.
At this time, another article introducing Chen Bing in detail appeared on the Internet. Of course, the article was carefully compiled and packaged as a high-quality online article. Once the article was published, it once again caused a stir on the Internet. So far, it can be said that Chen Bing has not yet
As soon as he officially debuted, he was already anticipated by everyone.
Seeing such good results, Nie Dong even made a special phone call, feeling ashamed and saying that he had spent so much thought and connections to create a publicity effect that was simply weak compared to Bai Shuo and Cao An's magical operations.
I was shocked, and I admired Bai Shuo even more from then on.
Of course, in this online promotion, Bai Shuo and Cao An also spent a small amount of money. Cao An used the system he established to reward people who guided posts according to regulations with a reward of 50 cents for each post.
Once such a mechanism was launched, Cao An's Internet troll army became even stronger. The term "Fifty Cent Party" actually started from this time, which was something Bai Shuo did not expect.