"It's too late to improvise. Isn't it too late to look at this now?" Liang Ying laughed at Bai Shuo.
Bai Shuo put down the book in his hand and quietly closed the Baidu website on his computer. He turned around and said sheepishly: "If you don't know how to learn, just learn by doing. You should learn by doing, hehe."
It turns out that Bai Shuo is supplementing his financial knowledge these days. After discussing the US economic issues with everyone at the bar on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year and deciding on the next step, Bai Shuo found that he still had a lot of knowledge that he did not possess, such as MBS and CDO.
He has only a partial understanding of what it is. Although he also took courses in finance and economics in college, the so-called "what you read on paper is shallow, but you must know how to do it". Any top talent still needs to grow in practice.
.So these days, Bai Shuo basically let Liang Ying operate the stock market alone, and then secretly made up for it. Unexpectedly, Liang Ying found out and teased him mercilessly.
Liang Ying continued to smile and said: "Well, it's true that Brother Shuo has a good spirit. Let me tell you a story."
"Yeah." Bai Shuo became interested when he heard that Liang Ying was going to tell a story.
Liang Ying pointed to the Penguin QQ software on the computer screen, and then said: "When Xiao Ma started his business, the QQ communication protocol was not encrypted, which was very detrimental to the user's information security. Later, as Penguin grew step by step,
In order to solve this problem, Xiao Ma arranged for a programmer to develop encryption software. After two weeks, Xiao Ma wanted to see where the program was written, so he went to find the programmer. Unfortunately, the programmer happened to be out.
There was a book on the principles of encryption lying upside down on the desk. Brother Ma picked up the book and looked at it, and was shocked. Because the programmer was still studying the first chapter and the first section of the book, and the title was '
What is encryption? In fact, Penguin Company is just trying to cross the river by feeling the stones. Many talented people in the company started out as beginners. It is in this state of learning and doing that Ma Ge leads the team in small steps.
, only by relying on incremental innovation and continuous progress can we lead the company to what it is today step by step, but no great master is at full level from the beginning."
Seeing Bai Shuo nodding frequently, Liang Ying said to Bai Shuo again: "Right, Xiao Bai".
"Hmm...huh? Are you belittling me? I'm not a noob, my surname is just Bai." Bai Shuo finally realized that Liang Ying still continued to tease him.
At this time, another news on the Internet caught Bai Shuo's attention. Bai Shuo immediately used it to stop Liang Ying from teasing, and then asked Liang Ying to analyze it together. A financial company in the United States issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of last year. At the same time, a financial company in the United States issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of last year.
British companies announced a substantial increase in U.S. subprime housing credit reserves. These news caused some fluctuations in the stock market. Bai Shuo searched for relevant information on the Internet and found various comments in the United States saying that the current slowdown in real estate growth is nothing more than
It is a normal adjustment after a round of rapid growth, and the future is still promising. Some people even think that it is a good time to invest in American real estate. Bai Shuo feels that this crisis has begun to appear, and he should speed up preparations until everyone wakes up.
If you come over, you will lose the best profit opportunity. After preliminary discussions, Liang Ying and Bai Shuo decided to communicate with Liu Shu of the United States and then discuss the decision together.
At around 11 o'clock in the evening, Bai Shuo, who had fallen asleep, was woken up by the ringing of the phone. It turned out to be a call from Liang Ying, telling Bai Shuo to go online quickly. Kevin was in charge of organizing an emergency video conference. Bai Shuo knew that there must be important news, otherwise
Liang Ying was not so impatient, so she immediately got up, turned on the computer, and connected the camera. After a while, Bai Shuo, Liang Ying, Liu Shu, and Zhong Pengcheng arrived. In the video, Liang Ying first apologized for leaving the company at this time.
Everyone was called to a meeting. Bai Shuo scolded him angrily: "It's a lot of nonsense. We came here in the middle of the night. We didn't want to hear your apology. Let's hurry up and get some practical information."
Liang Ying smiled awkwardly and then began to say: "Let me make an opening statement first. To seize this opportunity, we must first understand the deep-seated reasons behind this crisis. This will help us target the next step.
During this period, I conducted a relatively detailed study of the economic development process of the United States. First, after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the dollar became a freely issued currency without policy constraints. Banks
The industry developed rapidly, and various financial instrument derivatives continued to innovate during this period. With the three oil crises, bankers' investments in sovereign countries evolved into sovereign debt crises, and capital began to withdraw to the United States. In the 1980s,
During the Reagan era, expansionary fiscal policies and the prevalence of monetarism allowed domestic enterprises to flourish, and the financial industry further promoted economic expansion. Soros called it the "Reagan Cycle." With the stock market crash in 1987, the Japanese economy
Recession and financial deleveraging brought the U.S. economy to a temporary stagnation. At the same time, asset securitization also dispersed risks, preventing the U.S. economy from going backwards. By the early 1990s, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, world hegemony was established.
A large amount of military technology has returned to the civilian population, and the information technology industry has developed rapidly, accelerating the process of economic globalization and integration. Transnational investment and speculative activities have become increasingly frequent. Investors from various countries often target the U.S. market. The financial industry provides great opportunities for these investment behaviors.
Conveniently, the prosperity of the American economy has also brought about rapid population growth. From 1990 to 2001, the annual population growth rate exceeded 1% for 12 consecutive years. At the beginning of the new millennium, the Internet bubble burst, the United States entered the interest rate cut channel, and Silicon Valley companies
Stocks plummeted, but real estate in Silicon Valley continued to heat up during this period. Bankers and investors experienced the sovereign debt crisis, stock market crashes in traditional industries, and stock market crashes in emerging industries, and suddenly discovered real estate as an excellent investment product, so real estate investment became
It is a hot target of bankers, major financial groups, and investors. However, as a consumption-oriented country, since 1995, the cumulative growth of real disposable income per capita of American residents has accounted for 85% of the cumulative growth of consumer spending. There is a gap between the two.
It is filled by the wealth effect of asset appreciation and demographic dividend. However, due to the serious lack of supervision in finance, ordinary people also consume in advance through borrowing and participate in speculation. Crazy consumption has led to a very serious phenomenon of eating more than food. At present, as time goes by, real estate
, with the continuous prosperity of the financial market, first of all, there has been a huge bubble in the stock market, and then the real estate has reached an unsustainable period. So what is the specific performance of the current real estate market in the United States, Liu Shu did a lot of work some time ago
With the investigation in place, I would like to ask him to give you a detailed explanation of the current situation of real estate in the United States."
Then Liu Shu first reported to everyone the situation collected in the past few days: After returning to the United States, Liu Shu immediately used the funds provided by Liang Ying to organize a professional team to conduct an investigation from four aspects. The first aspect was to carefully
I studied the mortgage data of the United States, focusing on the analysis of overdue data, and found that the default rate of mortgage loans in the United States has been accelerating in recent times. It has now exceeded 5%, which can be said to be in a relatively dangerous range. This leads to the default rate
One reason for the increase is that the interest rates commonly used for mortgage loans in the United States were significantly discounted in the past few years, and then the interest rates will continue to increase. Starting from the second half of last year, the preferential interest rates for many subprime loans expired, and borrowers faced high
The amount of repayment gradually appeared, and people who could not repay the loans had their houses confiscated. However, perhaps due to the long and complicated chain of the financial system, these problems have not yet been effectively conveyed, and both the real estate market and the financial field are still prosperous. Liu Shu
It is estimated that if this rate is maintained, the default rate may rise to 8% or even higher after half a year. By that time, the real estate crisis predicted by Bai Shuo may break out.
The second aspect is an on-site investigation of the current status of many real estate projects in the United States. Liu Shu also personally visited several areas and found that although these houses were all sold out and the market seemed to be very hot, in fact the vacancy rate was very high. A large number of
Houses have been left idle and uninhabited, and have become pure investment products. In one area, the occupancy rate is even less than 8%. The ghost town phenomenon is happening in various parts of the United States.
The third aspect is to investigate the current situation of home purchase in the United States. It is found that the current loan approval for home purchase in the United States is very loose. In order to complete more tasks, many reviewers basically have no qualifications for home purchase loan applicants, and even help real estate companies.
By cheating home buyers, some groups with no legitimate income at all can easily buy a house and apply for a loan. What’s more interesting is that the investigation also found that the United States has also launched something that can be refinanced in housing loans, that is,
It is said that after the house price rises, you can apply for the re-evaluation of the house, and then re-issue the loan according to a certain proportion based on the new re-assessed value. In this way, even those who purchased the house long ago and have not repaid the loan can still re-evaluate the house.
Mortgage again to get a bigger loan.
The fourth aspect is that after Liu Shu analyzed the situation in the first three aspects, he found that although the default rate continued to increase, it did not seem to have the slightest impact on the real estate in the United States, and some cases where credit problems had clearly appeared.
But the credit rating did not decrease. So the day before yesterday, Liu Shu used his connections to conduct a secret investigation into the credit rating system of the United States. Although there was no direct evidence, Liu Shu was basically certain that there was a lot of water in the credit rating of American mortgage loans (
Of course, Bai Shuo and the others only need to know the truth, and do not need conclusive evidence to punish those illegal operators).
If there were still some reservations about Bai Shuo's judgment before, after understanding this, Liu Shu now has no doubts about Bai Shuo's analysis and believes that this crisis will have a high probability.
Then, Zhong Pengcheng talked about what he had learned recently: First of all, China's economy continues to improve, and the A-share market is optimistic. However, because the world economic situation temporarily shows signs of slowing down, this has also led to more and more hot money.
They are flocking to China and continue to promote the rise of real estate and stock markets. However, there is generally no so-called sense of crisis internationally. They just think that this is a new round of economic structural adjustment or regional adjustment. After the A-share wave is completed, etc.
The return of hot money will drive economic recovery in other regions of the world. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of economic overheating again in the near future.
On the other hand, he used some of the information he collected and the data and information Liu Shu had passed on these days, and asked the professional team to conduct repeated analysis and deduction through mathematical quantification. He felt that based on the current development, the U.S. real estate crisis would break out in full within the next year.
The probability is 80%. Of course, if there are major events, such as major policy reforms, state rescues, major changes in the international political or economic situation, or even the outbreak of war, the crisis may be advanced or postponed, or even temporarily.
It won't happen. Generally speaking, the outbreak of this crisis is very likely, but there are also many uncertain factors.
When it came to mathematical quantitative research, Liang Ying told his family about a Chinese mathematical genius, Li Xianglin. It was he who used Gaussia to
pula invented credit portfolio pricing and realized rapid pricing of CDOs, which is highly praised by Wall Street. Its principle is to use normal distribution to calculate the correlation between individual assets under the premise that the default correlation does not change with time.
property, obtain the single-factor Gaussian Pula matrix to calculate the asset portfolio po
The default probability of tfolio, after excluding the correlation penalty, is the current value pricing of the asset. Translated in human language, it is the mo obtained at different places and at different times.
tgage, it is impossible to default at the same time, that is to say, the loss here can be offset by the profit there. As long as my volume is large enough and the geographical distribution is random enough, I can achieve positive benefits. This is actually not the same as eggs.
Putting it in a basket means the same thing.
But in fact, he ignored the systemic risk in the financial field. This fool all knows that financial fluctuations are asymmetric and fat-tailed. Using normal distribution to measure risk will fail in extreme cases. The correlation between variables
will increase sharply. At the same time, the input to some parameters is empirical, that is, our real estate market has not had any major problems in 70 years from the Great Depression to the present, so I can use these 70 years of data to measure the future.
Asset default level. Li Xianglin also warned to use these models and tools with caution. Unfortunately, few people on Wall Street really understand mathematics. They are just looking for a simple tool to achieve their goals.
Bai Shuo thought about all the information and asked Liu Shu if he had investigated the major real estate companies in the United States and the banks and insurance companies associated with them. Liu Shu said that the profitability of such companies in the United States is gradually declining, but
Everyone still thinks it is just a temporary adjustment. Some companies already had major problems in the fourth quarter of last year, but these problems were artificially weakened, because as long as the real estate industry can resume a new round of growth, these problems will be solved.
solve.
After more than a few hours of discussion, it was already dawn in China. Everyone had said everything they needed to say, but someone still needed to make the final decision. Bai Shuo stomped back and forth in the room, looking at the surrounding environment
There was silence, and Bai Shuo's tiny footsteps seemed particularly clear, echoing in the empty night. Everyone on the computer screen also fell into their own thoughts. This seemed to be the silence before a major event broke out.