Japanese companies are still very methodical in doing things. When a technology is still in the laboratory, there are specialized personnel to analyze the market prospects of this technology, make predictions about future sales, prices, etc., and base their decisions accordingly.
Determine issues such as raw material procurement and production capacity building.
The data mentioned by Hirano Sadao are the results calculated by the research department. This result can be used as the basis for Miyagawa Masaru's decision-making.
"What is our current inventory of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide?" Miyagawa turned to Nagatomo Nagaji and asked.
"There are less than 60 tons of dysprosium oxide and only 5 tons of terbium oxide." Nagatomo Nagaji said dejectedly.
"Is there such a big gap?" Miyagawa was lost in thought.
Regarding rare earths, there has always been a view that rare earths are not "rare" and are not strategic resources that need special protection. The reason for this view is that the global annual demand for rare earths is only a few hundred thousand tons, while China's
The proven reserves of rare earths are as high as 30 million tons. Even if the world's rare earths are supplied by China, they will be enough to be mined for more than 200 years. If we also consider the rare earth resources of other countries, then the rare earths will be enough for another 1,000 years.
One of the biggest flaws of this theory is that it does not take into account that with the development of human science and technology, the demand for rare earths will gradually increase. Once a certain use of rare earths is discovered, it is entirely possible that the demand will increase by 10 times or 100 times.
Doubling the rate, can you still say that these rare earths are enough to last 1,000 years?
The most typical example is the demand for neodymium oxide. Before the invention of neodymium iron boron, the demand for neodymium oxide was very small, only one or two hundred tons a year. But after the emergence of neodymium iron boron, the annual demand for neodymium oxide
The volume suddenly increased to more than 2,000 tons, which was more than 10 times more than before.
The same is true for dysprosium and terbium. These two elements originally existed only as additives and were in small demand. In NdFeB permanent magnet materials, in order to enhance their coercive force, about 2% of dysprosium is generally added, which is
Dysprosium oxide is the main use in Spring Mountain Company's production. Because the amount used is small, Spring Mountain Company's storage capacity is also small. As long as it can guarantee the production needs for two or three years, it is enough.
However, when the dysprosium-terbium ferroalloy appeared, the situation was completely different. Dysprosium and terbium changed from additives to main raw materials, and the demand naturally increased by a factor of 10. Originally, only 60 tons of dysprosium oxide and 5 tons of oxide were stored.
Terbium, now it seems that the gap is really too big.
"Nagatomo-kun, the experts you consulted, do you think the price of dysprosium oxide can rise to the highest level in the next three years?" Miyagawa Masaru asked Nagatomo Nagaji again for confirmation, and he wanted to make a major decision related to the fate of the company. He is
It is necessary to fully understand the situation.
Nagatomo Nagaji said with a grimace: "They believe that according to the current situation, the price of dysprosium oxide may rise to US$500 per kilogram in the short term, which is US$500,000 per ton. The most important thing is that they do not know
If you knew about the dysprosium-terbium ferroalloy technology we have mastered..."
Nagatomo Nagaji did not say any more, because what he said next was really shocking. Experts’ estimates of price trends are based on the existing supply and demand of dysprosium oxide. Once dysprosium terbium ferroalloy enters the practical field, the demand for dysprosium oxide will increase significantly.
If prices rise, the supply and demand situation will become even worse. By then, the estimate of US$500 per kilogram will become a foolishly optimistic view.
If you think about the rise in international oil prices, you can understand how terrifying it would be if the price of a mineral resource increased.
"I will submit an application to the board of directors for a loan of US$100 million to establish a reserve of 600 tons of dysprosium oxide and 100 tons of terbium oxide. This will be a strategic reserve for our company." Miyagawa was using a heavy tone.
, said to everyone.
Stocking up on raw materials sounds easy and wise, but it’s actually quite a scam. 100 million US dollars of raw materials cannot generate any value if placed in a warehouse. On the contrary, you have to pay high interest and storage fees, which will become a
It is a heavy burden for the enterprise. But it cannot be done without establishing reserves. Once there is a disturbance in the market, the enterprise will have no choice but to be at the mercy of others.
Whether to establish reserves and how large a reserve should be established is a very complex issue, involving predictions of the market and technology, and even taking into account the integrity of the opponent. However, from what can be seen so far, dysprosium oxide and
The price of terbium oxide will continue to rise no matter what. If a kilogram of terbium oxide currently costs US$500, if it rises to US$500 or even US$5,000 in a few years, then the reserves established now with huge investment will be able to play a role.
All the managers in the room knew how important this matter was to Chunshan Company, and it was really unpleasant to feel that their lifeline was in someone else's hands. Hirano Sadao even had the idea that if he had not learned from Qin Hai at that time,
With a sample of dysprosium-terbium-iron alloy in hand, perhaps all of this would not happen. However, he also knew that this was just an illusion. The invention of dysprosium-terbium-iron alloy permanent magnets was a huge threat to Chunshan Company anyway.
. Whether Chunshan Company accepts it or not, it will be equally embarrassing.
"As for the work of expanding reserves, should we start now?" Nagatomo Nagaji asked.
"Start now." Masa Miyagawa said with certainty. For such a big decision, he must of course get the approval of the board of directors, but purchasing 600 tons of dysprosium oxide is not something that can be accomplished overnight. The current supply of dysprosium oxide in the entire international market
It is only about 200 tons. To establish such a large reserve, in addition to clearing the market of dysprosium oxide, we must also put pressure on the Chinese government to increase the production and sales of dysprosium oxide. As for other countries in the world,
Rare earth suppliers, let them sleep, they do not have such production capabilities.
"I understand." Nagatomo Nagatsuki said, "Mr. Miyagawa, I need to go to China in person. If necessary, I may have to meet with officials from the China Planning Commission or Mr. Qin Hai. I need the company to give me
Sufficient authorization. In addition, to make the Chinese willing to increase the supply of dysprosium oxide, I am afraid that the Japanese government needs to communicate with the Chinese government through official channels."
"I will arrange for people to do government matters." Miyagawa Masaru said, "You and Hirano-kun will study the issue of dysprosium-terbium ferroalloy and determine an accurate purchase quantity and the highest price we can accept.
Then report back to me."
"Hi!" Nagatomo Nagaji and Hirano Sadao stood up at the same time and responded in unison.
As the internal melancholy of Chunshan Company was looming, Qin Hai was sitting in the office of Wang Hongsheng of the State Planning Commission, chatting and laughing, introducing the results of his trip to the south.
"The export of heavy rare earths has completely stopped and will not resume within two months. The price of heavy rare earth oxides on the international market has increased by an average of three times, and the highest has increased by 10 times. This time, cabbage can finally be sold
The price of the meat is up." Qin Hai proudly said to Wang Hongsheng.
"The production of rare earths has not been interrupted, right?" Wang Hongsheng asked. He knew about Qin Hai's regulation of rare earths in advance, and he had been paying close attention to it for a period of time. He was also relatively concerned about Qin Hai's practices in the southern provinces.
satisfied.
Qin Haidao: "No, after the renovation, the production order is better. In addition, we have invested in a batch of large-scale mining equipment, and the production capacity has increased by more than three times. However, all rare earth products are currently stored in warehouses, and we have to wait until the price is right.
Then throw it out when the time comes.”
Wang Hongsheng said: "Only a rich guy like you dares to do this kind of trick. I heard that it was your Daqin Group who paid for these rare earth products. It cost a lot of money, right?"
Qin Hai shook his head and said arrogantly: "It didn't cost much, just tens of millions. We can't let the small mine owners who invested money to build factories not see the benefits, right?"
"Aren't you worried that the price of rare earths will not rise in the future, and all your reserves will be lost?" Wang Hongsheng deliberately questioned.
Qin Haidao: "First of all, it is impossible for rare earth prices not to rise. Now no one can figure out my production capacity, so there is generally an expectation of price increases. The mentality of buying up and not buying down. The same exists for international buyers.
Secondly, even if foreign buyers have the ability to refuse to buy, I am not afraid, our Daqin Group has the ability to digest these inventories."
Springshan Company is struggling with the issue of how much rare earths to store, but here in Qinhai there is no pressure at all. This is the right of the resource owner to have a say.
If he weren't worried about the pressure of international trade, Qin Hai really wouldn't have to make money by selling rare earths. A group of scientists from the Anhe Institute of Materials are now working at full capacity on research on rare earth deep processing technology, and he can digest no matter how much rare earths he has.
However, just as you cannot eat alone when mining, you cannot eat alone when it comes to the use of mineral products. He must leave some rare earth raw materials for foreign high-tech companies. Otherwise, he will attract criticism.
"When are you going to wait before shipping?" Wang Hongsheng said, "You have blocked the supply in the international market. Some foreign companies have already lodged protests. This is not in compliance with international trade rules."
Qin Hai smiled and said: "Hasn't our country not yet joined the Tariff and Trade Agreement? What can international trade rules do to me? What's more, I didn't say not to ship goods, I just said that adjustments will be made now and the mines will be temporarily closed.
The Timpas Rare Earth Mine is already planning to close down forever, isn’t there anyone complaining about it?”
Wang Hongsheng said: "That's what I say, but after all, our country has to participate in international trade, and some things cannot be done too much. To tell you the truth, the Ministry of Foreign Trade has come to us several times these days, asking us to give you
Apply a little pressure and release some rare earth products. They are directly facing overseas merchants, so the pressure is not small."
Qin Haidao: "Director Wang, I came to you just for this matter. I can give you an explanation. I plan to resume supply to the international market in two months, but the supply will only be half of the original. My actual
The production capacity is three times the original, which means that I have two and a half times the supply in my hand, which can be used to bargain with foreign businessmen. Does the Planning Commission have any plans to make use of this weapon? "
"Use this weapon?" Wang Hongsheng's eyes lit up, and he understood what Qin Hai was referring to.
No one can fault the idea of reducing supply in the international market on the grounds of renovating mines, and it can even be completely believed by others. But after all, the international market needs rare earths, so various manufacturers will come to the Chinese government for help.
There may even be communication through the government level. At this time, the country can take the opportunity to blackmail. If you agree to my conditions, I can give you some rare earths. If you don't agree to my conditions, I will give you a few official words.
Let you return disappointed, everything depends on whether you can satisfy me.
As for what he wants to extort from foreign countries, Wang Hongsheng can think of too many things: preferential trade terms, the export of certain Chinese goods, the lifting of restrictions on high-tech products... These are all things that the Chinese government has tried its best to win from abroad.
Instead of begging others with courtesy and emotion, it is better to force the other party to take the initiative to provide benefits on rare earth conditions. There is a huge difference between initiative and passivity.
To achieve this, a key point is that there must be an organization that can completely control the production and sales of rare earths. Now, Qin Hai has achieved this. (To be continued...)