Huang Chengju looked at Qin Yi with a look that was both reserved and somewhat arrogant. This was due to his background and long-standing position in a high position, which resulted in his contempt and disdain for ordinary people.
People around had already noticed what was happening in this corner and gathered around to watch.
Some people are secretly excited that there is finally something exciting to watch.
Some people shook their heads, feeling that Huang Chengju was too young and energetic, and it was unwise to fight with others in public.
Could it be that Young Master Huang Chengju has lost his temper and insists on getting angry with Qin Yi to compete with him?
That’s really too much to think about.
What is the identity of the other party? He is just a nobody.
If Huang Chengju wouldn't even look at him at ordinary times, and if someone in another place pointed at him and scolded him, he would just laugh it off and talk about it later.
It's too shameful to argue with inferior people.
Huang Chengju has been scolded a lot since his debut. He even had rotten eggs thrown at him on the street.
He still has the courage to avoid being asked to apologize on the spot after just a few words.
But not today, especially on this occasion, in public, in full view of everyone, when he is selling bonds.
If the other party says that the bond will be lost, whether it is an unintentional statement or not, it sounds like a serious provocation to him.
The core of finance is confidence, which is also the essence of financial markets and financial products.
If you lose your confidence, you lose everything.
Confidence is something more precious than gold.
This sentence may undermine the confidence of the surrounding people in this batch of bonds, and these people in the banquet hall are basically the social elites of Hong Kong Island. These people not only represent themselves, but also a company and a group behind them.
Or an industry or a class of people.
These people have no confidence, so Huang Chengju is still selling crappy bonds.
Therefore, Huang Chengju must stand up and compete with the other party, and he must be slapped in the face on the spot.
The harder the blow, the stronger the confidence of these people in the bond will be.
At the same time, we will take this excellent opportunity to promote the bonds we have.
This is not mindless grudge, it is all about interests.
Seeing more and more people gathering around him, Huang Chengju's smile grew stronger. Now it is necessary to have more people to achieve the best effect.
"Everyone, this batch of bonds underwritten by our Changhe Group was issued by the Central Bank of the Republic of China, and the yield can reach more than 15%." Huang Chengju started his sales pitch in a non-hurried tone, with a commercial smile on his face.
Not at all the arrogant attitude I had just now.
"As we all know, since the issuer of national bonds is the country, they have the highest credit and are recognized as the safest investment tools. This batch of bonds is issued by the Bank of England and guaranteed by the government of the Republic of China. Its safety is
There is no doubt about it.”
"International rating agencies have rated the country's debt aaa, and our Changhe Group has identified this batch of bonds as prudent financial management, which is the least risky among all financial products."
Qin Yi stood up with a smile, "The 15% rate of return is indeed very attractive. As we all know, in the financial field, high risks lead to high returns, and high returns must correspond to high returns. As Mr. Huang said, it seems that only high returns are possible.
There is no high risk, which is not common sense."
The people around me also frowned, yes, this is not normal.
Huang Chengju sneered and said nothing, that's it?
Are you going to talk about this?
It's a waste of time to face someone like you.
But the next second, Huang Chengju's expression changed.
"Do you know where this high yield comes from?" Qin Yi said calmly, "Since the mid-to-late 1980s, the real estate industry in the Republic of China has been booming and the economy has grown rapidly. Because the economy of the Republic of Korea was good at that time, in order to curb the exchange rate of the British pound against the pound
The German mark rose, and the central bank chose to cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut, a large number of mortgage loans emerged, housing prices soared, inflation rose, and the cpi (price inflation index) rose from 2% in 1986 to 10% in 1990."
"But by the end of the 1980s, the central bank tightened monetary policy and kept raising interest rates, from 7.5% to 15%, a full doubling."
"Beginning in 1990, the Korean economy entered a recession and the unemployment rate rose. In 1990, the unemployment rate was 7.7%, and it had risen to 12.7% in 1992. Home buyers were unemployed, unable to repay loans, and banks collapsed. The problem facing the country now is productivity.
Low, exports are not competitive, and the public has no confidence in the government to reverse the economic situation."
As soon as Qin Yi said various nouns and data, Huang Chengju immediately felt that something was wrong. Why did this person remember all kinds of data so clearly?
Either they are experts who deal with economics and finance every day, or they are prepared and deliberately come to cause trouble.
Huang Chengju kept smiling and said calmly: "I can't tell, this gentleman is very knowledgeable about economics."
"I only know a little bit."
"Since you know so much, why did the Central Bank of the United States raise interest rates?" Huang Chengju answered without waiting for Qin Yi to answer, "Since the 1980s, high inflation has been a major concern for central banks of various countries. In March 1980, the United States
Inflation was as high as 14.8%. Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, continued to raise interest rates, and the federal benchmark interest rate reached 20% in June 1981. What followed was an economic recession, and the inflation rate dropped to 3% in 1983."
"However, the extremely tight monetary policy created a good opportunity for the then US President Ronald Reagan to formulate new economic policies. Relying on the government's massive borrowing, the United States achieved economic take-off."
"Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker and President Reagan can be called the best partners. They have since become a model for central banks and governments around the world to follow. They tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and stimulate the economy through fiscal deficits. This is known in the economics community as
Reaganomics."
"Since then, central banks in many countries have followed Volcker's lead and tightened monetary policies. Constantly raising interest rates is just a means to combat high inflation."
Everyone around them had expressions of sudden realization and couldn't help but admire.
"That's it."
"Master Huang is really knowledgeable. It seems that the Huang family has a successor."
"A tiger father has no dog sons."
"As expected of a top student at Stanford, he understands such complicated economics."
"This batch of bonds seems to have been settled."
Seeing that the atmosphere was getting better, Huang Chengju struck while the iron was hot, "Everyone, let me tell you another piece of good news. European countries have always hoped to create a pan-European economy and use close economic ties to connect the entire Europe into a huge market. If this market can be established can be economically comparable to the United States."
"Since the 1990s, China has joined the European Monetary System, which can reduce European currency fluctuations, so that companies do not have to worry about severe exchange rate fluctuations affecting business models and profits when investing and trading, which greatly stimulates economic development. Joining After the European Monetary System, China's CPI dropped sharply to 4%."
"The economic situation is excellent. Now is the critical moment when the country is in urgent need of funds to stimulate economic growth. In the next few years, economists predict that the country's economic growth will remain at 5%."
As soon as the words fell, a lively discussion broke out in the crowd. Everyone was excited and seemed very moved.
Huang Chengju's eyes fell on Qin Yi, "Sir, what else do you have to say."
"I have a question." Qin Yi looked at Huang Chengju expressionlessly, "The country's national policy for the past century has always been offshore balancing. Actively joining the European system is completely inconsistent with its previous national policy. Now it not only joins the European monetary system, The Treaty of Maastricht was signed in February this year, why would China do this?"
Huang Chengju was stunned, he didn't expect the other party to say such a thing.
"Since the 1980s, China's economic situation has been sluggish, and some experts pointed out that China would fall into recession. In the first two years before joining the European Monetary System, the CPI increased from 5% to 8%. High interest rates seemed to be ineffective in combating high inflation, and instead increased the It increases the risk of economic recession."
"The country faces a dilemma: maintaining high interest rates, the Great Depression is inevitable, and interest rate cuts are unbearable and inflation cannot be tolerated. So what should we do? We can only cut interest rates and release water to stimulate the economy, but this will cause the pound to depreciate, capital outflows, and trigger a crisis."< /p>
"So the British government hoped to use external forces, so it chose to join the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System to stabilize the pound exchange rate and control inflation. After joining the EMS, the UK immediately announced an interest rate cut of 1%. After joining the EMS, the UK's CPI (price inflation) Index) dropped sharply to 4%."
"But the country also faces a very embarrassing problem. Its economic weakness makes it impossible for the pound to maintain an overvalued exchange rate."
"After joining the European Monetary System, our hands and feet were even more tied, because after joining, the pound must be pegged to the mark, and there is a lower limit, so it can only float within the limits of the exchange rate mechanism."
"This means that the United States' monetary policy is no longer independent, but has become a passive follower of Germany's monetary policy. The German central bank adopts a tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, so the Bank of England's monetary policy is also tightening. Due to the exchange rate mechanism
Without restrictions, the British government cannot stimulate the economy by printing money as it pleases."
"If the pound depreciates and is very likely to exceed the lower limit of the exchange rate, it will leave the European monetary system, declare the failure of the country's foreign exchange policy, and the government will lose public support.
If the pound does not depreciate, the exchange rate will be overvalued, and capital will vote with its feet, foreign exchange reserves will continue to lose blood, and the consequences will be serious."
"Then I would like to ask Mr. Huang, under this situation, how can the central bank of the Republic of China ensure the high yield of this batch of bonds."
The audience next to me was a little confused, because Qin Yi's statement was too shocking.
Huang Chengju's expression suddenly changed. Such a professional discussion was a bit beyond his knowledge reserve. He turned to look at the assistant.
Fortunately, the assistant still did a good job in her homework, and immediately lowered her head and said a few words in my ear.
"You are alarmist!" Huang Chengju quickly stabilized his position and refuted loudly, "According to the regulations of the European Monetary System, the currencies of various countries and the German mark are allowed to float within a range of plus or minus 6%. If the floating flexibility is not enough, countries can
Negotiating with each other and making adjustments, this system was designed to balance exchange rate stability and interest rate flexibility when it was first established."
Qin Yi sneered, "This monetary system stipulates that the exchange rate anchor is the German mark. It is not a floating exchange rate determined by the market. This is inherently against the laws of the market. The economic development among countries is unbalanced and their strengths are also different. The economic needs
The policies are also different."
"The current situation is that the United States needs to cut interest rates to stimulate investment and consumption. Germany, on the other hand, needs a large amount of capital to enter, and due to the booming infrastructure project, inflation is gaining momentum. The Germans urgently need to raise interest rates to keep funds at home and suppress pressure.
Inflation."
"The interests between the two countries are fundamentally opposite. If the pound does not depreciate, funds will continue to flow into Germany, which will have an extremely negative impact on the economically depressed country."
"If the devaluation is too severe, China will automatically leave the European monetary system. Then I believe everyone can guess what the consequences will be. The big European market that Mr. Huang just mentioned is completely in vain."
Huang Chengju couldn't bear it any longer and reprimanded loudly: "You are talking nonsense! Ridiculous! What nonsense!"
"It's easy to tell if I'm talking nonsense. You can find out by asking a professional." Qin Yi, the other party's reprimand, had no emotion on his face. "Everyone is debating with each other and expressing their opinions. What's wrong?
Just point it out directly. Mr. Huang just said that I was talking nonsense without even giving a reason to refute it. This would be beneath my dignity."
"You..."
"And what I just said is not my personal opinion, but put forward by an economic research team affiliated with Harvard University. The experts in the team are all the world's top economists. According to the expert's report, speculators in the market have long paid attention to
At this point, they are looking for loopholes in the European monetary system and will take action soon." Qin Yi once again dropped a bombshell.
"If there is a problem with the exchange rates of various countries, it will be a chain reaction. The currencies of various European countries are in danger of being shorted. The exchange rates are tied to death. Why should Germany save you when the critical moment comes? Is Germany the biological father of the United States?"
"You..." Huang Chengju was speechless for a moment, not knowing how to refute.
"If something happens and Germany refuses to lower interest rates, what will China do? Should we bleed or wait to die?"
"The Great Empire is powerful."
"Strength depends on real gold and silver. If you really have that strength, why would you sell bonds?" Qin Yi showed a sarcastic smile on his face. "And I heard that the country has the habit of defaulting on bonds. The bonds during the Napoleonic period
I haven’t paid it back yet.”
The people present were in an uproar, looking at each other and talking in low voices.
"Who is this person? It's like the waves behind the Yangtze River push the waves ahead."
"I don't know, never seen it?"
"Sounds reasonable?"
"Oh, you didn't see Mr. Huang's face, it's very ugly."
"Master Huang, hurry up and fight him to death!"
"What's right? What this handsome guy said is reasonable and well-founded. How do you want to refute it?"
"I didn't expect that someone so young would have such insight into the economy."
"It is said that the eldest son of the Huang family is a business genius, why do I have nothing to say now?"
"..."
Listening to the discussions around him, Huang Chengju became angry. He took a few deep breaths, forced himself to calm down, and looked at the assistants on his left and right.
The assistants were also at a loss, looking at each other and not knowing what to say.
"What I just said are just inferences based on economic principles." Huang Chengju said calmly, "There are many schools of economics, and there are a hundred different hypotheses and inferences that can be found, which does not explain anything.
”
"If economists could really predict the economy, they would already be the richest people in the world. Why would they bother teaching in universities?"
Qin Yi gave Huang Chengju a thumbs up in his heart, what you said was so wonderful.
Economists really don’t understand economics.
"I understand your desire to be in the limelight by talking about some weird and sensational stories." Huang Chengju said coldly, "Young man, you are still too young."
"Everyone, I understand everyone's concerns about the risks of financial products, but our Changhe Group has very strong confidence in these bonds." Huang Chengju looked around and said loudly, "Moreover, we draw a large part of the group's liquidity, totaling five
A batch of bonds were subscribed for US$100 million."
"Fifty million US dollars, this is our greatest confidence in these bonds. After all, we spend real money to prove our point of view, unlike some people who just make some sensational remarks to discredit others."
After saying that, Huang Chengju looked at Qin Yi with a mocking look.
"Bah bang bang!"
Qin Yi clapped his hands, "Master Huang said it well, the best way to convince others is to spend real money."
"In this case, why don't we just make a bet, and let the guests present be witnesses." Qin Yi took out a check from his pocket, "Here is 10 million, which is all my deposits. If it turns out that the pound is in
He will be safe and sound this year, and the ten million yuan will be donated to the charity fund in the name of Mr. Huang."