The life of gaming may not be quite right. Perhaps it should be called the life of decision-making or the life of operations, but it seems that they are not as good as gaming. Let’s call it that.
The most famous one in game theory is the prisoner's dilemma, so I won't go into details here.
This leads to a decision-making issue, that is, whether to pursue maximum benefits or minimum risks. To put it bluntly, the greater the risk, the greater the benefits, but the greater the losses if failure; the smaller the risk, the smaller the benefits, but the losses if failure
Also smaller.
Let’s briefly review the Xiazhou offensive and defensive battle with Li Guangrui. In this battle, both parties involved in the war were always pursuing maximum profits.
Yang Hao:
1. Adopting Zhang Pu's suggestion of a surprise attack on Xiazhou is to pursue the maximum profit and bear the maximum risk. If it succeeds, it will become the master of Xiazhou. If it fails, it will lose its foundation and live in a foreign land.
2. After the successful surprise attack on Xiazhou, they beat the fallen dog hard and pursued Li Guangrui without letting the tiger return to the mountain or giving him a chance to make a comeback. If he succeeded, he would completely eradicate the powerful enemy; if he failed, he would turn victory into defeat (in fact, a dangerous situation on the Wuding River also happened).
Li Guangrui:
1. At the beginning of the war, the "imperial warriors personally marched" and mobilized in full force, vowing to uproot Yang Hao's influence. Success would reshape the northwest king's transcendent status, while failure would also mean losing its foundation.
2. Xiazhou was lost. When Gu Buyi's soldiers successfully jumped out of the encirclement, he did not immediately recapture Xiazhou. Instead, he "encircled the point and called for reinforcements" on the Wuding River. Success turned defeat into victory, eradicating Yang Hao and Zhe, Yang and others in one fell swoop.
Everyone has seen the consequences of the main force's defeat.
In this battle, Zhao Guangyi, who was not a major participant in the war, adopted an approach that pursued minimal risk:
When Yang Hao obtained the imperial edict and returned to the northwest, Zhao Guangyi originally sent Pan Mei's 100,000 troops to follow him, preparing to make a profit as a "fisherman".
However, after receiving news of the instability in Shu and the rebellion in the Southern Tang Dynasty, Zhao Guangyi did not pursue the maximum benefits of controlling the Western Regions, but adopted a plan to stabilize the rear and pursue minimum risks.
Let’s use the same method to analyze the current situation:
Western Front (already captured):
Liangzhou:
Yang Hao: We must pursue the maximum profit, not only to take Liangzhou, but also to take Liangzhou without any blood.
Luorong Demba: In the end, he chose the least risky plan, surrendered the city, and was appointed governor, thus avoiding the tragic ending of pursuing the greatest interests and being annihilated.
Suzhou:
Yang Hao: In the best interest, the sound of the waves remains. "Fight without encirclement", and at the same time, cut off contact with the Guiyi Army.
In the meantime, they gave up smaller interests such as "eight beauties, son-emperor, no fighting, no change of defenses", and always pursued the best interests of comprehensive and rapid control of Suzhou.
The Long Family: Proposed various plans, hoping to maintain the Long Family's status as the best interest. After being rejected, they still chose to stick to it. Of course, in the end, they also took the biggest risk of moving the family to Xiazhou.
Guasha two states:
Yang Hao: It’s still the best interests of this greedy guy.
Guasha is different from Gansu and Su. The Guiyi army is all Han. Therefore, in addition to complete control, Yang Hao's best interest is to use as few weapons as possible to avoid causing resistance from the Han people in the Western Regions.
Therefore, only then did Mr. Zhang make his brilliant appearance, and only then did he have the initial encirclement but not attack.
Cao: Currently, among the opponents in the Western Region, the one who pursues maximizing interests most thoroughly is also the one who takes the most serious risks.
Compared with the Suzhou Long family who was finally forced to surrender, the Cao family resisted the most thoroughly. Not only did they fight to the end, but they also chose the fierce method of self-immolation for the final resistance. As a result, the Cao family was completely wiped out by Yang Hao.
go.
Zhang: Except for Yang Hao, the beneficiary who pursues the greatest interests.
Originally, Yang Hao would be kind to the Zhang family after taking melons and sand, but he was limited to being kind and appeasing.
However, "Ginger is old and spicy." Mr. Zhang seized the opportunity and fought for the maximum benefit for the Zhang family at this juncture.
Is it okay for him to control half of the city without setting up a "Hongmen Banquet"? Yes, but Yang Hao will not look at Zhang in a different light.
Can he control half of the city and wait for help? Yes, but without the contribution of dedicating the city, Zhang's influence is still limited to Guasha.
Therefore, he not only wanted to defect to Yang Hao, but also offered him a big gift. Fortunately, he made the right bet, otherwise, the Zhang family might have disappeared under the chaos of the army.
Western Front (not captured yet)
Ganzhou:
Yang Hao: Of course, he continued to pursue the maximum profit. He first feigned an attack to lure reinforcements, and then annihilated the first batch of reinforcements to shake the enemy's fighting spirit. Finally, he "encircled without attacking" and lured reinforcements into the city, forcing the defenders into a dilemma.
Ye Luohe: At present, we are still pursuing the best interests, at least retaining our status as the Lord of Ganzhou.
Now, Prince Ali and Princess Aguli have gone back. Basically, they have brought back the opposite information. Ali believes that Yang Haojun is well-prepared and powerful, and will still recommend a breakout; Aguli plays the role of "Jiang Gan", of course
, the news she brought back cannot be said to be completely wrong (I want to sigh here, the most brilliant lie is half truth), she thought that Yang Hao was about to withdraw from the army, and she would still recommend sticking to it. Thus, the "Prince and the Beloved Concubine" staged
2".
How will Ye Luohe make a decision this time? Of course, there are factors here including the information that Agulis risked his life and brought back and a little debt to her.
But, more importantly, when hope is seen, the factor of pursuing the best interests will continue to play a role. In the past, it was possible to escape with a life, and I would be thankful to God. Now, I want to "save both my life and the city." Therefore, 80% of the time,
He will choose to stay.
Eastern route:
Yang Hao: Minimal risk.
Complete the things in front of you in a down-to-earth manner, completely solve your worries, give up partial interests, and seek a turning point.
Zhao Er: Best interests.
Not only do we need to seize prefectures and plan for the Western Regions, but we also need to be "famous" and have a legitimate reputation. Every bit of it is ruthless, and every bit of it is thick and black.
Of course, rabbits will bite when they are in a hurry. Once they fail, they will encounter the strongest resistance.
Zhe Ziyu: minimal risk.
He rationally interpreted the information sent by Zhe Yuxun, objectively analyzed the current situation, and pursued the best interests of both protecting the prefecture and avenging his family without overestimating his own capabilities, so he retreated and chose to join Yang Hao.
This avoids the situation of losing the prefecture and losing the army, leaving the effective strength of the soldiers of the family, which provides a guarantee for future revenge.
Planting: minimal risk.
Decisively give up Linfu and retreat to Hengshan. Throw away the bottles and cans, "give up the gains and losses of one city and one place" to protect the core interests of the Yang Group from being harmed.
Yang Jiye: The biggest risk is initially
Due to his role, Yang Jiye was initially forced to choose the best-interest plan: defend all Yang Group's cities. Success would be good, but it would run the risk of dividing his troops and being defeated by each one. Failure would shake the foundation of the Yang Group.
, even in the situation of being a wolf before and a tiger behind, facing the disaster of annihilation.
Xiao Li: Maximum profit
The pursuit was the most thorough, a real desperate move, and he set fire to Suizhou, completely cutting off his own way out.
If playing Yinzhou is a small profit and low risk for him, then his choice to play Xiazhou is definitely a high profit and high risk. If he succeeds, he will become the overlord of one side again, if he fails, he will be completely wiped out. (Here, I wish you all the best in advance.
Li Tongxie successfully received the lunch box)
Two wordy sentences:
1. People are social and emotional, so many decisions are affected by various factors. Regardless of personal identity, Yang Jiye will definitely make the right choice; if Zhe Ziyu and Yang Haoshi are in the same boat,
The corresponding decision results may be very different.
2. In the final analysis, strength, capital, and foundation are the decisive factors that affect decision-making. The stronger party can naturally pursue the greatest interests calmly (because the possibility of taking the greatest risk is too small); while the weak party will have a difficult time making a choice.
many.
Marginal cost, a city is nothing to Yang Hao and Zhao Er, but it is everything to Ye Luohe, the Long family, and the Cao family.
Therefore, please feel how difficult it was for Luorong Dengba and Zhe Ziyu to make such a choice, and please also understand the resistance behavior of Ye Luohe, the Long family, and even the Cao family.
Because this is life, a life full of games, choices, and entanglements.
Follow-up:
Prophecies usually die tragically, so I won’t say anything else. However, one thing is certain, everyone will choose the plan they think is most suitable after a comprehensive evaluation, whether he chooses the greatest benefit or the least risk.
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Write at the end:
I have wanted to write this article since Yang Hao's campaign against Xiazhou, but I have only had a vague feeling about it, and have never been able to grasp the key point. In addition, I only know a little bit about this aspect, and I am afraid of making people laugh, so I have not started writing it.
Now, Yang Hao is about to unify the Western Regions, but I still only have that vague feeling; and what I can know is still the pitiful superficiality. I can’t care so much, so I’ll write it like this first, otherwise I’m afraid to wait until "