On September 10, when the Shenyang Arsenal had begun to move, Zhou Hexuan came to Zhang Xueliang's official residence in Peiping again.
Zhang Xueliang smiled bitterly and said, "Are you coming to persuade me again?"
"Sixth Commander, I was too impulsive the first two times and didn't explain things clearly," Zhou Hexuan tried to make his tone more relaxed and slow, "Let's not propose troops today, let's discuss the current situation first, okay? ?”
"Say." Zhang Xueliang nodded.
Zhou Hexuan asked: "How many troops does Shenyang have?"
Zhang Xueliang did not hide anything, saying: "Beida camp has 8,000 elites, there are also several policemen in Shenyang City, and there are thousands of garrison troops in the surrounding areas."
Zhou Hexuan nodded and said: "In other words, Shenyang only has 8,000 soldiers who can really fight hard. What about the entire Liaoning Province?"
"The total strength of Fengtian Province is 90,000, but most of them are garrison troops with low combat effectiveness, and the elite troops are less than 20,000." Zhang Xueliang said.
Zhou Hexuan asked again: "What is the total strength of Fengjun?"
"400,000, but more than 100,000 belong to the reclamation army. These soldiers are old, weak, sick, and disabled, and they are not much different from farmers," Zhang Xueliang said. "Most of the elite Fengjun troops are in North China. The remaining Northeastern soldiers are responsible for local garrison duty." The army is the main priority.”
"In other words, there are still at least 200,000 troops available in the four northeastern provinces. Once the war breaks out, more than 100,000 elite troops can be transferred back from North China." Zhou Hexuan asked, "The strength of the Japanese Kwantung Army is How many?"
Zhang Xueliang knew this very well. He said: "The fully-equipped Japanese Army 2nd Division has a strength of 10,500. But the actual situation is more than that. There are 10,000 rural soldiers (retired professional soldiers) and 3,000 policemen in the Northeast. , Japan has about 23,000 troops in Northeast China. In addition, Japan has a division stationed in North Korea (Korean Division) with 30,000 troops that can provide rapid support, with a total strength of more than 50,000 troops."
Zhou Hexuan said: "In other words, once the war starts in Shenyang, the strength comparison between the two sides is 8,000 elite Fengjun troops plus more than 10,000 local garrison troops, facing Japan's 10,500 Kwantung Army. If the war escalates, it will be 100,000 Fengjun troops to deal with it. There are more than 23,000 Japanese troops. If the war escalates further, 300,000 Japanese troops will face more than 50,000 Japanese soldiers. Are you afraid that you will not win?"
Zhang Xueliang said speechlessly: "It can't be calculated that way. More than 90% of the main elite of the Fengjun army are deployed in North China. These troops cannot be easily transferred, otherwise not only will there be great chaos in North China, but also in several northwest provinces."
Zhou Hexuan said: "Once the Feng army goes to war with Japan, it will be a national war. How dare Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang risk the disapproval of the world to stir up trouble?"
"That's not certain," Zhang Xueliang said, "Mingcheng, don't forget, Yan Baichuan is flying back to Shanxi on a Japanese military plane this time. In addition, I have received intelligence that the Guangdong-Guangxi coalition forces in the south have probably fought with The Japanese Army Ministry has a secret agreement."
Zhou Hexuan advised: "Even if you completely give up the northwest and give up part of the North China territory, it will only be a feud between brothers. Losing the northeast will be a loss of troops and humiliation of the country. Which is more serious, please think twice."
Zhang Xueliang patted his chest and said: "No, I am sincere and at ease. According to the existing intelligence, the Japanese Army Ministry has given up its conspiracy plan after being reprimanded and warned by the cabinet. The Kwantung Army is also very quiet these days, and is no longer even taking the initiative." Provoking trouble."
"If something goes wrong, it must be a monster. Do you believe that the Kwantung Army, which has always been domineering, will become so obedient? This is paralyzing you!" Zhou Hexuan said.
Zhang Xueliang said: "The Kwantung Army does not have the support of the Japanese cabinet. They do not have the strength to fight for a long time. At least they will have great difficulties in military supplies. Your plan to relocate the arsenal. After thinking about it repeatedly, I think it is a good idea. As long as the Kwantung Army
If the army cannot obtain ammunition supplies, they will not have the ability to expand the war."
Well, Zhang Xueliang agreed to relocate the arsenal because he didn’t want the Kwantung Army to have a successor.
Is this really a mistake?
Zhou Hexuan asked: "What if the Japanese military launches a coup and overthrows the cabinet government?"
"How is it possible? State affairs are nothing but child's play. There is no reason why a coup is just a coup." Zhang Xueliang did not believe this prediction at all.
Not only Zhang Xueliang, except for Zhou Hexuan, a time traveler, I am afraid that no one now believes that the Japanese military can stage a coup. Even the Japanese Army Ministry itself does not believe that the coup was staged by a small group of young military officers.
How does Zhou Hexuan explain this?
Even a prophet needs to be believed by others.
Zhou Hexuan's advice fell into a deadlock. The difference between him and Zhang Xueliang was whether the Japanese cabinet would support the Kwantung Army.
If the Japanese cabinet always opposes the Kwantung Army's plan, then the situation will develop according to Zhang Xueliang's vision, and the Northeast will only betray a little more interests. But according to historical trajectory, half a month after the Kwantung Army launched the September 18th Incident, Japan
The cabinet was frightened by the military coup, and began to support the Kwantung Army's actions to a certain extent (but not entirely).
The coup is a low-probability event and cannot be used as an argument to persuade Zhang Xueliang.
Zhou Hexuan changed his mind and said: "Sixth Commander, let's think about it in another way. If the Kwantung Army creates soldiers and you resolutely resist and fight back, the Japanese cabinet will see no benefit and will definitely continue to oppose the suppression of the military. And if you choose not to resist, the Kwantung Army will
The army will be able to obtain a large amount of resources in Shenyang. Seeing the profits, the Japanese cabinet will most likely change its attitude and support the military! Japan is divided into the war faction and the peace faction. The more fiercely you fight, the more Japan advocates peace.
The stronger the faction is, the more advantage it has. So, no matter what, we must fight head-on!"
"Inappropriate, inappropriate," Zhang Xueliang shook his head repeatedly, "Fighting back can only give the Kwantung Army an excuse to continue sending troops. In the past ten years, the Japanese army has sent troops to Northeast China, Tianjin and Shandong many times. As long as China compromises and gives in, they will retreat on their own.
.Even if we want to severely defeat the Japanese, we still need to wait for North China to stabilize, and then it will not be too late to fight again."
What Zhang Xueliang said made sense, but Zhou Hexuan was speechless.
If it were Lao Jiang at this moment, he would probably not listen to Zhou Hexuan's advice. After all, no one can predict that there will be a coup in the Japanese cabinet. But Lao Jiang will probably not listen to the advice at first. When he discovers that the Japanese are expanding the war without limit, Lao Jiang's
The waist will inevitably harden, instead of retreating to the end like Zhang Xueliang did.
Zhou Hexuan said helplessly: "Sixth Commander, I will leave first. After the Kwantung Army completely captures Shenyang, I will come to advise you again. I hope you will not make the same mistake again and again. By the way, you'd better use the real gold in the Shenyang Bank."
Transfer the silver to avoid being picked up in vain by the Kwantung Army."
"Don't worry, I have already made arrangements." Zhang Xueliang smiled confidently.
Zhou Hexuan shook his head and sighed. He had said so much that he hoped the situation would be better than in history. At least Zhang Xueliang had been alert and would not be at a loss when someone took over his lair.
