"So the development direction of the manufacturing industry, I personally think, is not 'intelligent manufacturing' but 'dumb manufacturing'. The word intelligence is vague and can easily mislead people. What is intelligence? To what extent is it considered intelligent?
It’s hard for you to explain this clearly, and it can easily lead to disagreements and disputes.”
"But there is no ambiguity about the standard of fool. Everyone understands that you can easily play it without using your brain."
“So the general direction of the future development of the manufacturing industry is the rise of the auxiliary industry and the tertiary industry, which uses a large number of other emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, cloud services, etc., within these industrial systems.
New technologies outside the country can replace traditional technologies with backward production capacity in the manufacturing industry on a large scale.”
"That is to say, we will continue to take away the traditional manufacturing technology and replace it with these things. Then, after making the entire manufacturing industry simple, anyone can easily use industrial manufacturing."
"What do you mean? If you are an ordinary person and you want to build a machine, the requirements are too high in the traditional sense. You need to know how to grind lathes and planers, read pictures, and operate a production line. How can ordinary people
Of course not if you can interfere with this."
"But in the future, as the manufacturing industry itself becomes more and more stupid, a lot of its internal knowledge will be replaced by other industries, making it highly intelligent and seemingly stupid on the surface."
"In this case, the threshold for manufacturing has been lowered. Anyone with a little genius and a small idea can put his or her ideas through a model like Industry 4.0 very simply, that is: I'll tell you.
Data, what kind of accessories do I need? This 4.0 factory will automatically process and manufacture it for you based on your parameters and orders. You don’t need to know any other knowledge about machine tools or manufacturing processes. When the production is completed, it will be sent back to you.
, a bit like private customization, this is the development trend of the future manufacturing industry."
"And such a development trend of 'fool manufacturing' makes the globalization we all know is approaching an important turning point. The trend and undercurrent of globalization are changing."
"What we call globalization in the traditional sense is basically driven by multinational companies using their outsourcing business as the core driving force. But why is there a possibility that this trend may be reversed now?"
"Then these multinational companies need to re-evaluate and weigh. In the past, why did they engage in outsourcing? It is because the labor costs in their own countries are too high, while the labor costs in foreign countries are very low. Developing countries are often a few tenths of the cost of their own countries.
The salary is one, and traditional manufacturing requires a large number of workers, so the proportion of labor is relatively high."
"The manufacturing knowledge in the industrial process is stored in the heads of engineers and workers, and its marketing is completed by humans. Call centers and customer services are all completed by humans."
"So reducing labor costs can greatly increase its profits and market competitiveness. Industrial manufacturing has such strong impulses and demands, which drives it to move factories to other countries."
"This process accelerated in the 1990s. At that time, the Internet had just been born but there was no big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, etc., and these concepts did not yet exist."
"Then after that, the situation changed, with the birth of various emerging technologies, but it is important to note that the birth of these emerging technologies was almost all born outside the traditional manufacturing system, and it changed the traditional manufacturing industry.
A large amount of knowledge is replaced, and the knowledge in traditional industrial manufacturing is constantly lost. At this time, the manufacturing industry is becoming more and more stupid, and the cost center of the manufacturing industry is no longer on labor, so this will also cause multinational companies to naturally re-
Evaluating the risk allocation problem in global trade.”
"Take our Coastline Company as an example. Our company currently has less than 3,500 employees, but we achieved a revenue of more than 200 billion last year. If we calculate based on 3,500 employees, each company employee created an average of 57 million
amount of wealth, so of course our cost focus is no longer on labor.”
Many people at the scene were still shocked after listening to it. The opening speech of the conference has continued to this day. The content of Ye Hua's speech has become more and more important in people's hearts. Coastline Company is the best example. This is equivalent to using practical actions to respond to what he said.
point of view stated.
With an annual revenue of 200 billion, among Internet companies known for their high profits, their labor scale should be 35,000 to 50,000, while Coastline's labor scale is 10% of that. If it is in the manufacturing field, it will be even more exaggerated. At least
There must be hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of employees.
"On the one hand, labor costs in emerging market countries have been rising over the past two decades. This space used to be called labor arbitrage, but now it has become smaller or even almost gone."
"The cost center of gravity is no longer on workers, but it will not disappear out of thin air, but has shifted. Where did it go?"
"Of course, more and more investments are made in the research and development of new technologies and the cost of knowledge. As a result, the accounting books and accounting methods of multinational companies will inevitably change. At the same time, the costs caused by other risks will also continue to increase.
The rise of globalization, such as geopolitical risks, policy risks caused by certain countries’ opposition to globalization, exchange rate risks, and various other risks are all gathered together, far exceeding the risks of labor costs.
."
When talking about this, many people present complained that the so-called certain countries are actually the old and the United States. The "Twitter President" is now making choices all over the world, withdrawing from groups, rejecting globalization, and focusing on playing his own game.
.
Ye Hua's current influence can be said to have radiated around the world. It would be unwise to mention him by name. Everyone just understands. After all, he will do business in North America in the future. It is harmful to name him by name.
They are a bit unreasonable.
"Multinational companies are also worried that if they outsource production all over the world, will there be any problems in the final assembly process? This possibility certainly exists. The Boeing 787 is an example. More than 50% of all outsourcing is provided by global suppliers.
I won’t go into details here because time is limited, but you can check all of them.”
"So, these all illustrate an issue that deserves attention."
"That is, the thinking of multinational companies, especially multinational giants, may have changed. That is to say, these risks have not been estimated before. Do you think that if we continue on the road of globalization, industrial subcontracting, and relocation, we can
It brings you huge profits. But later you will find that after these risks appear, not only the costs have not been reduced, but have been increased, not only can you not make money, but you have lost money, and you have also damaged the long-term brand reputation."
"These two competing forces are that the ability of the fool's manufacturing industry is getting stronger and stronger, and its costs and manufacturing costs are falling. On the other hand, the cost of integrating overseas production is getting higher. Both of them are
The combination will drive multinational companies and multinational giants to rethink and reweigh the pros and cons."
"These people have significant influence on decision-making in some developed countries. Whether it is foreign policy, transnational trade policy, or tariff policy, they will have great influence."
"Of course, we cannot yet hastily conclude that the trend of globalization has begun to reverse, but we can already clearly see a trend, that is, judging from the general law of manufacturing development, the manufacturing industry itself will become more and more
With more and more fools coming, the threshold will be lower and lower, and when everyone can easily use manufacturing, its convenience and cost will evolve towards better and better cost performance."
"In other words, products in the future will become more and more high-quality and cheap. This is a general rule and trend. In the future, developed countries, especially those with high-end manufacturing, may be increasingly inclined to bring these industries back to China.
To the local area, I think this may be a trend of future development."
"Although we cannot yet make a conclusion that high-end manufacturing has returned, or has already begun, from the trend, there are already many signs and symptoms, such as the fool's manufacturing in developed countries, German Industry 4.0, and the advanced technology of the United States.
If the manufacturing industry gradually starts to operate, the cost of the entire manufacturing industry will be further reduced, and the functions will become more and more powerful."
"At the same time, it is difficult to avoid the rising costs caused by peripheral risks and risks arising from overseas, such as the labor costs mentioned earlier, geo-conflict risks, exchange rate risks, including the impact of the entire manufacturing industry at the final integration stage.
Risks to product quality will arise, and these risks will increase."
The participants in the audience thought to themselves: Risks and opportunities coexist, and it is difficult to let go of your children without trapping the wolf.
"So these two trends are ebbing and flowing, and the final result may be that one day we will see signs of a return flow of high-end manufacturing in the United States, Europe, and Japan. And the arrival of that day will affect the entire globalization process.
pattern and its future development trends, which is no small challenge for global multinational companies and cross-border trade."
"When we talk about manufacturing and their development models, such as China's 2025, Germany's 4.0, the United States' advanced manufacturing, and Japan's manufacturing development strategy, big countries are all competing in manufacturing
career, but who can finally stand out from the crowd? I think our old saying is very reasonable: Kung Fu lies beyond poetry!"
"So when we pursue strategic breakthroughs in the manufacturing industry, the real breakthrough point is no longer within the manufacturing system, but outside the manufacturing system."
"Whose manufacturing industry will become dumber and dumber as a whole, and whose manufacturing industry will be more competitive in the future, and the discussions and exchanges at this artificial intelligence conference will play an important role in the development of the manufacturing industry in the future.
meaning.”
"Of course, if we want to make a high-level summary of all the above, it can be summed up in one sentence and twelve words: Innovation and technology are the primary driving force for production!"
"Whoever can lead in innovative technology will be the final winner. Thank you everyone."
At the end, Ye Hua bowed to the 110,000 attendees and left the stage.
After a moment of silence, the audience suddenly burst into fierce applause. In the surging applause, all the participants at the scene were talking about it, whether they were domestic or foreign.
"After this lecture, Ye Hua's leadership status in the global technology and business circles has been established without a doubt." One participant boasted without hesitation.
"When you say Jack Ma is an alien, I think he is a real alien."
"Is God too partial to the Chinese? The Chinese have already produced a business legend like the founder of Alibaba, and now there is such a monster-level figure."
"It's not a preference from God, because the land of China is not under God's control."
