"Moreover, Western economists themselves do not understand the source of their mistakes. If they do, they will go too far. They will pretend to be confused and mislead the world, but I think they do not understand."
"Then have we Chinese people made any contribution? I think we have, that is, we have re-understood Adam Smith's theory and proposed the general Smith theorem."
"It means that whether the division of labor is limited by market size, emmm... it should actually be subject to three restrictions. First, it is limited by natural resources. Our country's natural resources have many restrictions and it is impossible to expand so much. Oil resources, natural gas
Waiting for the limitations of natural resources, the second is the market size, but the third is the contribution of us Chinese people."
"If your market has very large fluctuations and a lot of turbulence, then your division of labor will inevitably change from complex to simple, so complexity and stability are a contradiction. Then you will understand the crisis of today's Western society
Yes, but it has developed too complexly, so it is actually very fragile, which will inevitably lead to an increase in maintenance costs."
"For example, it is easy to recover dozens of cows that were bombed by the United States in a village in Vietnam. Is it a big problem if 911 hits two buildings? Is it easy or difficult to recover? Is it expensive to maintain?"
"So in comparison, if the United States is hit by a global impact today, its vulnerability is actually much higher than that of China. If we lose one thousand, the United States may lose three thousand. The reason is very simple, right?"
"Because of this, we understand that if there is scale competition, there will be no equal exchange. Americans now claim that developed countries have high GDP, but this does not mean that their real productivity is high, but it shows that they control the discourse of international division of labor.
power, technological hegemony, military hegemony, and financial hegemony.”
"So of course it can and has the ability to monopolize pricing, which is why we had the pain of exchanging 800 million shirts for a Boeing aircraft. So you see, how can it be an exchange of equal value?"
"What's a little funny is that Americans don't want free trade, but equality and reciprocal trade. This is really funny, because the most equal people enjoy the most resources in the world, pay the least labor, and control the world.
The market still says it has suffered losses? Everyone’s overall intelligence level is not much different, right?"
Zhao Xin: "So Mr. Ye, what kind of economic situation do you think we are facing today? What will the future world look like to be a better world?"
Ye Hua: "Situation... Suppose there is an industry or company in a field that has no competitors now. If we build a mathematical model, it should be an S-shaped curve with increasing returns to scale and a turning point that remains unchanged for a short period of time. But if it
Facing the entry of a new competitor, an old industry faces a new competitor, and it quickly declines. Electronic products used to have screens, but now a new competitor with holographic screen-free displays has entered the market. It now (has
Is the screen display declining?"
"The so-called metabolism theory is like this. The laws of economic movement or industrial movement are actually the same as the laws of life movement. They have a life cycle."
"Every life has a process of infancy, youth, adulthood and finally aging and death, but the concept of cycle is uncertain. If the coastline is not born, right? The screen era may not start to decline now, so this is uncertain
Yes, and it is impossible for a person to emerge from the mother's womb and carry out the next cycle after death, so metabolism."
"Then the mathematical concept is called wavelet, one wave after another, one after another, so the waves behind the Yangtze River push the waves ahead, and the sum of them is the macroeconomics we see, which has growth and fluctuations."
"So we Chinese people not only have our own theories, but we have also established a complete set of systematic mathematical methods that can accurately describe life phenomena as small as micro-finance and macro-history of economics."
"We can develop a grand unified theory. This theory cannot be compared with Einstein, but it can be parallel to him. Einstein's theoretical unity is based on the particle theory in matter. What we unify is metabolic life and economy.
Regarding social phenomena, I won’t talk about theory here. You can go to Fuda to find the right person and interview Professor Chen. He is definitely more professional than me.”
"Then metabolic growth has an inevitable result, and we can truly discuss what modern marketization means."
"You can think of any industry as four stages. The first stage of development is like basic scientific research. Can it make money? The answer is not sure, I don't know."
"So scientists and research institutes cannot make money. They either rely on government grants or non-profit funds to provide R&D funding, or they rely on capital or large companies to support themselves. Look at Huawei, Coastline and many other technologies in the world.
Just look at the giants’ R&D investment.”
"I said that scientific undertakings need to be supported by capital, which actually makes sense. Otherwise, you would not have the money to build a laboratory and have expensive equipment. There is a big difference between scientists and entrepreneurs."
"The second stage is the growth stage, which is the initial application stage. At this time, external venture capital comes. The market economy does play a big role at this stage. Back then, the former Soviet Union did not emphasize market competition in the take-off stage, and efficiency immediately dropped later.
Go down."
"But does the government have a role at this stage? Because it is very easy to create bubbles at this stage. The stock market has been pushed up to the point where I am even scared to see it. A typical example is the rise of the Internet as an emerging industry from the 1990s to the beginning of the new century, which caused bubbles.
Isn’t that how it came about?”
"So whether the government has a role or not, it will play a big role in setting standards. Apple was almost killed by Microsoft back then, which is a typical example of backward technology almost starving advanced technology to death, so it does not mean that what exists must be right.
.”
"What is the reason? The government gave up on setting standards and let backward companies in the monopoly market set standards, so unreasonable phenomena occurred."
"Then you in the West are talking to me about marketization and legalization. Are you going to let monopolies formulate it? Or are you going to let people who call themselves top-level designers and know nothing else formulate it? Have you ever been in a business? Have you ever been in that industry?
Do you understand the actual situation? Have you done any data analysis? Right?"
"The third stage of maturity seems to be the special skill of neoclassical economics, and it seems that the invisible hand can be let go. In fact, this is not necessarily the case, because the most typical phenomenon in the third stage of maturity is that neoclassical economics cannot explain
Why can giant companies and small companies coexist, so even in the mature stage, the government has a role, and what role does it play? Establish antitrust laws to prevent large companies that are already behind in technology from using their inherent market dominance, patent barriers, etc. to curb new
The entry of businesses.”
"So Mr. Edward Lazer was talking about protecting intellectual property rights before. I want to ask him whose intellectual property rights he is protecting? Are you protecting sunset industries or emerging industries? Unfortunately, what I see is that the United States is protecting sunset industries. This is also
Those who have data, I prefer to use data to speak."
"For example, a recent typical example is Elon Musk, known as the 'Iron Man of Silicon Valley.' I have met him many times. Coastline and Tesla also have commercial cooperation, and the cooperation may be deepened in the future."
"Then let's talk about Musk, an inventor of emerging industries. He was so angry that he brought Tesla to build a factory in the commercial capital. This means that emerging industries are being forced to go overseas, so North America is calling for a return to manufacturing, giving priority to
, you need to solve this first... the coastline is a special case, our coastline is actually also the source of technology."
"To get back to the topic, just like Tesla, even if you look at the entire country, many of the technology sources in China are developed in the United States. Then China will develop first, and after the experiment is successful, it will return to compete in the American market and defeat the original competitors.
It is equivalent to what our great man said about the countryside surrounding the city."
"It's equivalent to complex science. Just like Professor Chen said, I don't have a living environment in Harvard or Chicago, so I'll go to other places to expand first, and then turn around and surround the city with rural areas, and add an edge to challenge the core.
"
"Our Shoreline Company followed such a strategy in the early days of its establishment. At that time, we did not have the ability to challenge and change the old structure of the domestic film market and the capabilities of the theater giants. We did have advanced and emerging projection technologies, but we may not win if we compete head-on, because
They occupy a dominant position in the market. If you have only technology but no capital, and no connections to commercialize, how can you take off? Then the final result may be that the advanced technology will be starved to death or swallowed up by the opponent."
"Then how did we solve this problem at that time? If you look back at the first year of the initial development of Coastline, there was no living soil for our company to start in Greater China. We found Baofeng to make private films. This was considered a fringe area of the film and television industry, and we challenged it with margins.
At the core, we went to North American theaters to develop business, cooperated with Disney and secured a US$1.5 billion order, surrounded the rural areas and the cities, and expanded and in turn revitalized the film market in Greater China."
"This is the core basic strategy of surrounding the countryside with cities and challenging the edges. It was in accordance with this strategy that our company got through the difficult start of the company's early days."
"I (Coastline) are a living example, Tesla is a living example, and then you go and see if historical changes are all like this?"
"What about the fourth stage of aging? The role of government is coming."
"Companies are in decline. You say that the U.S. economy is in recession now, our economy is in decline, and the government comes to rescue the market."
"We have ordinary nerds who, with their bookish ideas, keep shouting abstractly about 'the country advances and the people retreat' all day long. So what is 'the country advances and the people retreat'? Do you want young people to come if an old man can't walk anymore?"
Give him a hand? Even if he dies, do you want to take care of his funeral? After he dies, you just leave him there and ignore him? So the person who said this does not have a basic concept of economics, then your child will grow up
Do you want to shelter him from the wind when he is older? Do you want to help him when he is eighty or ninety years old and can no longer walk?"
"So we use bookish abstraction to talk about 'the country advances and the people retreat'. In fact, the biggest mistake when looking at economic theory is the Nobel Prize-winning Arnold Blu model. All products in it have infinite lifespans."
"I said that even if you sell vegetables in the market, there is a cycle, right? As time goes by, the vegetables will rot after the fresh period. You can only throw away the rotten vegetables and dispose of them raw, and then find a way to put in fresh vegetables.
It's the same reason to sell baskets."
"As long as you add that every product has its life cycle and every enterprise has its life cycle, all neoclassical economic theories will be ruined. There is also an additional point: if there is scale competition, general equilibrium will not exist.
.”
Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye's words are indeed shocking. You still say you are not an economist?"
Ye Hua: "Haha, to be honest, I really can't. I have never received any degree in economics."
Zhao Xin: "But the professional knowledge you talk about is more professional than those economists with doctorate degrees. I think you are nameless but real."
Ye Hua: "No prizes, no prizes. Cut this section off. Cut it off, otherwise I won't accept your interview next time."
Zhao Xin: "Ha~~Okay, then there is one last big question. Mr. Ye, can you use the perspective of metabolic economic growth theory to talk about the rise and fall of enterprises, the rise and fall of industries, and even the rise and fall of civilizations and how they relate to our China?
