To be honest, in Hong Yanwu's view, Vice President Zhou of the aquatic products company had a good intention.
Although there is some suspicion that someone is trying to gain fame, his original intention is to bring down the price of sea cucumbers so that the people can get some benefits.
But the sad thing is that he is a person who is extremely ignorant of business, but also very self-righteous. The order issued is purely a typical "slap on the head" policy, which is taken for granted and completely divorced from the actual situation.
In fact, Bincheng's sea cucumbers have no basis for price reduction at all. This price reduction order may not only make it difficult to realize Vice President Zhou's original intention, but may also end up being counterproductive, causing an abnormal surge in sea cucumber prices.
Why do you say that?
Here, Hong Yanwu popularized a point of view of market economics that is commonly known today to the "Hai Bongzi". That is, whether the real value of a commodity is not determined by artificial pricing at all, but is determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
To put it bluntly, "things are rare and valuable", and this is the same for any commodity.
There is a saying that goes, “If you want to know about the affairs of the sea, you must ask the fishermen.”
In fact, through investigations in the warehouse these days, Hong Yanwu also found out a set of real data that had already happened, that is, Bincheng's annual sea cucumber production in recent years.
He consulted with several experienced senior warehouse managers and learned that before the "movement", Bincheng's fishery output was only about 10,000 tons of fresh sea cucumbers per year, which was three to four hundred tons of light dried ginseng.
ton.
After the "Movement", due to the abandonment of production in all walks of life, sea cucumber production also decreased year by year, quickly falling to about 2,000 tons per year. In recent years, only less than 100 tons of light dried ginseng can be produced.
So this year, even if the production is doubled according to the aquatic products company's forecast, it will be nothing more than 200 tons of light dried ginseng.
As for the Bincheng "Haipongzi", although they are large in number, probably in the thousands, their levels are uneven and their harvesting methods are quite backward. Even if there are 4,000 people, each person will have 50 kilograms of dried ginseng.
Calculating the average amount, it is as high as the sky, which is the annual catch of 100 tons of light dried ginseng.
In this way, the largest total amount of sea cucumbers in Bincheng this year can be estimated very close. Officials and private individuals in Bincheng combined cannot exceed 300 tons of light-dried sea cucumbers.
And to be honest, the supply of sea cucumbers in Bincheng has never been sufficient. Based on the local urban population, when the fishery situation is at its best, the production is enough to give each person two taels of dried sea cucumbers.
At the same time, there are not many light-dried sea cucumbers that can be preserved for a long time. Every year, Bincheng supplies large quantities of them to well-known restaurants in major cities across the country.
Besides, how many local seafood restaurants are there in Bincheng? How many migrants come to Bincheng for business trips? Not to mention that Bincheng, a seaside city, receives many high-ranking officials and foreigners who come to recuperate every year because of its beautiful scenery.
Guests.
That’s why aquatic products stores and major restaurants often run out of stock. Even if there are sea cucumbers in aquatic product stores, it’s hard to see thirty top-quality sea cucumbers.
This was the basis for Hong Yanwu's decision to sell sea cucumbers from the beginning, and it was also the fundamental reason why he had been able to quickly sell sea cucumbers to tourists in Bincheng.
So now that we have talked about the data that Hong Yanwu himself researched and refined, it is necessary to talk about the research results and estimated data that Vice President Zhou relied on.
According to Hong Yanwu, Deputy Manager Zhou really shouldn't take these things too seriously.
Because first of all, these data have not happened yet, and unlike the data that actually happened in the past investigated by Hong Yanwu, there are too many variables in the middle.
The second is that our official estimation method itself is too unique. It basically reports good news but not bad news. This trend, like the "satellite release" incident many years ago, has not dissipated.
The only thing that is certain is that there must be some water in these estimates and figures. Imagine that the grassroots report to the leaders at all levels. There will always be someone among them who will do something to make the leaders happy. It just depends on how many problems there are.
What's more, in other words, even if these numbers are indeed real, we must not forget the saying that "the sky is unpredictable."
Sea cucumber is different from ordinary commodities. It is not produced in a factory, nor is it something that farmers can just dig out a big basket with a hoe.
It is completely bred naturally by the sea. The growth cycle is slow and the requirements for the growth environment are also picky. People have to dive into the sea to fish them out. After they are fished out, they must be processed later.
There are uncontrollable factors in every step of these links, and they are closely related to weather and environmental changes. If there is a problem in any link, it can cause heavy losses to sea cucumber production.
Therefore, when Vice President Zhou does this, the risk is definitely greater than the certainty. Ninety-nine percent of the time, something will go wrong.
In this case, no matter how you look at it or say it, sea cucumbers are in short supply.
As long as this does not cause a fundamental reversal, sea cucumbers will always be a hot commodity in the market, and it is impossible for the price to really drop just by relying on an official price.
The most typical example of this is the "three turns and one beep" that is representative of those in-demand commodities on the market.
Due to the current limited industrial level in our country, the output cannot meet the needs of the whole people. Not only are the prices of these ordinary light industrial commodities high, but they also require vouchers to buy them.
In order for ordinary people to obtain these commodities, they have to put in a lot of effort and even spend a fortune just to collect industrial coupons, but they all flock to it and are willing to do so.
When these products are in shortest supply, you still have to buy gifts as a favor. But no matter how much you pay, as long as you can buy them, you will be thankful, and no one will feel a loss at all...
Hong Yanwu spoke eloquently and cheerfully, but although what he said was logically clear and well-founded, it ultimately surpassed the understanding of this era.
The cultural level of the "Hai Bing Zi" is not very high. In fact, after listening for a long time, most of them still half understood and half didn't understand. So some people couldn't help but start to express doubts.
For example, "Xiapaizi" said, "Three turns and one beep are different from sea cucumbers. They are daily necessities that can be used repeatedly. If you don't buy them, they will be useless. But sea cucumbers are gone after eating them?"
Ordinary people can live without eating it. Moreover, the official price of 'Three Turns and One Ring' is high, but the price of sea cucumbers has dropped now, so how can we compare them?"
His words made many people nod their heads, and it was obvious that this was also the view of most people.
It's just that this question seems a bit childish and ridiculous today. Of course, Hong Yanwu was not put off by the question, and Tantanran gave another example.
"So what if it's not a necessity? So what if the official price is low? Have you forgotten Moutai?"
Indeed, to say this, Moutai should be a more appropriate example.
Because Moutai is also a relatively luxurious consumable, people rarely have daily demand for it. And the official price is only about ten yuan. If anyone encounters a happy event worth celebrating and really wants to buy one or two bottles, he can
Almost everyone can afford it.
But the actual situation is not like this. Precisely because the production of Moutai is limited, although the official price is not high, it will never benefit the public.
For those who are in high positions and have connections, it is of course only ten yuan. But for ordinary people who do not have such connections, you have to find someone who can get it and add more money. Twenty is it, thirty is it, forty,
Fifty is also it.
Just like a while ago, Hong Yanwu bought Maotai through Manager Xie of the guest house for 20 yuan a bottle for the wedding of "General".
That is still the friendly price within the commercial system, and no matter how much I want to buy more, I can’t buy more. A box of 12 bottles is Manager Xie’s greatest ability. How about giving Manager Xie two bottles as a gift?
There is no way, no matter how low the official price is set, if you can't buy the goods, everything will be a waste.
In fact, in this era, there has always been a "dual-track system" for all commodities in society. When the country later officially discovered that this situation was serious and had to issue relevant management policies, it was already an afterthought.
As soon as this example was cited, "Xiaipizi" was speechless. He had to admit that this was a real objective existence.
But "Ba Chu" thought about it, but he still didn't understand a very crucial question. He asked, if Hong Yanwu's theory is followed, the price of sea cucumbers should be like Maotai, which is much higher than the price in aquatic products stores.
That’s right? But why is it the exact opposite in reality?
Hong Yanwu was not embarrassed by this question. He thought about it and quickly answered to the point.
"There is still a difference. Moutai cannot be produced by the private sector on its own, and the only channels that can be obtained must go through the government. But there are many 'sea cucumbers' that can fish for sea cucumbers. In terms of output,
The 100 tons of 'Haipengzi' produced every year can basically support half of Bincheng's sea cucumber production, and it is definitely the most effective way to replenish the supply."
"In addition, the private sale of sea cucumbers in 'Haipengzi' is an idle transaction, and it is difficult to form a scale. There is a lack of consensus on the transaction price. Once they are anxious for money, they rush to sell it at a low price. The most important thing is that the transaction object is wrong. The price is
It would be weird if it could be sold."
"But it's not entirely true to say that no one among them has made a fortune from selling sea cucumbers. Those who go to the beach to buy them in batches during the peak season every year are smart people who understand the true value of sea cucumbers and can resell them at high prices."
As soon as these few words were said, no one had any doubts. The principles explained by Hong Yanwu were both logical, humane, and empirical. They were completely flawless and convincing and admirable.
Although the understanding ability of "Hai Bong Zi" varies, many people cannot digest some theoretical things. But when it comes to this, everyone feels that it is refreshing, and at the same time, they understand some economic principles and economic phenomena.
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At least many people are beginning to feel that this sea cucumber price cut is not as drastic as it seems. The price of sea cucumbers seems to be going up.
Even someone with a quick mind like "Xiapaizi" could vaguely sense that there were some unspeakable good opportunities inside. He couldn't help but ponder it in silence, wanting to chew on the details.
At this time, the "general" who had been silent until now became a little impatient.
Not only was he the person who understood the most clearly, he was also the person who trusted Hong Yanwu the most, so he said directly to Hong Yanwu, "You are our God of Wealth and our leader, and no one understands what is going on here better than you.
Who else can we listen to if we don’t listen to you? In my opinion, don’t go to such trouble, just tell us what to do! Everything is still arranged by you, we believe in you!”
The effect of the words "general" was obvious. People who had been stunned for a long time came to their senses and started to agree with him.
Needless to say, the things that happened have long made it impossible for them to question Hong Yanwu's ability to make money. Who would want to compete with others when they have nothing to do?
Without the "flying crab" and with the "general" taking the lead and providing full support, this small group easily reached complete agreement.
However, Hong Yanwu, who said his mouth was dry, did not get carried away because of this. He drank some water and still had a gentle and tepid attitude.
He said that in matters like this that are related to everyone's interests, there should be no carelessness. He must try his best to explain clearly so that everyone can safely support him. And he said that he just said so much to everyone mainly to explain the following points.
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First, he can guarantee that even in the worst outcome, everyone’s interests will at least not be less than they are now.
Second, since there is no practical basis for reducing the price of sea cucumbers, it is difficult to ensure supply. He judged that the duration should not be long, and the pressure on aquatic products companies to persist will be increasing.
Third, under this situation, he can also conclude that the room for sea cucumber price reduction is relatively limited, but the room for price increase is unlimited.
In his view, even if the official price drops again and again, the private transaction price of "Haibengzi" is not high to begin with, and it will be over if it drops even one or two yuan lower.
After all, sea cucumbers are not eggplants. They can be harvested from an acre of land, but they will rot if they are not sold. If the price is really low to a certain level, I believe that as long as there is no urgent need for money, the "sea cucumbers" would rather throw it away.
It won't be sold cheaply.
As for the opportunity for price increases, this is because official stocks will be quickly consumed due to price cuts. On the other hand, "sea cucumbers" will no longer be keen on fishing for sea cucumbers due to lower prices. At the same time, the prices are still acceptable.
Under such circumstances, we will be more anxious to clear out the inventory.
But no matter what, these will directly lead to a reduction in spot goods on the market. If there is a problem with the supply of goods that Vice President Zhou is counting on in the end. It coincides with the peak demand season, then a U-turn in the price of sea cucumbers in Bincheng will inevitably occur.
Things must come to an end. If prices rebound under such strong pressure, I believe that the speed and extent of their rise will be even more rapid and exaggerated! Absolutely no one can stop it!
So looking at it this way, who can say that this price reduction is not a good thing?
These last words were definitely a sure sign, and all the "sea bumpers" were dumbfounded.
"Xiapaizi" asked, "What do you mean, the price of sea cucumbers will rise soon? Then those who sell it now will definitely lose money. We should take advantage of the low price and charge more!"
"Sanjizi" also said, "Can it be higher than before? Then didn't Vice President Zhou help us a lot? Is this...possible?"
Hong Yanwu said firmly, "I don't have any other intentions. I'm afraid our chance of an outbreak is already at hand!"