Of course, Hong Yanwu could not say that the historical development was all in his own mind for the reason for this judgment, but he demonstrated it through several reasonings based on reality.
1. Bincheng sea cucumber is the most famous and high-end sea cucumber variety in China. Its scarcity and preciousness are irreplaceable.
The cold and clean sea water here creates this slow-growing sea cucumber. It only takes four or five months to aestivate, and its quality is naturally far superior to the fast-growing sea cucumbers in the warm sea water in the south.
Therefore, it has long been a hot commodity across the country, and demand has always been far greater than production.
In addition to what the master said just now, another concrete evidence that can prove this is that after the sea cucumber hype subsided two years ago, Bincheng sea cucumbers once dropped to the starting price of an average of fifteen yuan, but since then it has been slowly rising, and then
I have never gone there. The price has always been ahead of any domestic sea cucumber variety.
No one is stupid. The reason why prices are gradually rising is because good products are scarce. Therefore, let alone Bincheng sea cucumbers are difficult to sell at the moment, if you look across the country, the supply still exceeds demand.
Not to mention anything else, even in such a bad market today, the price is still at eighteen or twenty, which is still higher than two years ago.
Second, the shortage of sea cucumbers will never be alleviated, it will continue, and may even become more and more serious.
Because the basis of this sea cucumber hype is the man-made disaster caused by the "educated youth returning to the city", this kind of man-made disaster will not be easily eliminated. The jobs of hundreds of thousands of people cannot be created out of thin air. It will not work for at least a few years.
And these people have to eat, live, and find things to do when they have nothing to do. So it is destined that this situation will lead to sea shortages.
It is completely foreseeable that in a few years, not only sea cucumbers, but also "sea red", "sea oysters" and "thorn pots" will be hollowed out by thousands of people and become rare commodities.
In short, as long as there are no jobs, sea cucumbers will become increasingly scarce.
Third, the government is already a bit exhausted.
The government's method of deploying overseas sea cucumbers to stabilize the market was used last time. The only certainty is that this method can only have a temporary effect and will definitely fail in the long term, which is difficult to reverse.
Because in addition to the insider information inadvertently revealed by the master chef, this is confirmed. Even from a national perspective, Shandong sea cucumbers are also in low supply and high demand.
What's more, taking a step back, there are educated youths in Shandong, and the sea will still be desired by those extra people without restraint.
Moreover, Shandong has a high population density, and there are more people than here. Otherwise, why was there the term "Crossing Guandong" before?
For example, goods can be transferred this year only because the educated youth have just begun to return to the city, but that may not be the case next year.
In addition, Hong Yanwu himself and "Xiaobaizi" have also done some data surveys in the past few days.
What they now know is that it was originally said that a ship of sea cucumbers was unloaded at the dock, which was a rumor in itself.
Hong Yanwu has calculated before that under the current situation of relying entirely on wild fishing, Bincheng's annual sea cucumber production is only three to four hundred tons of dried sea cucumbers. And the load capacity of that cargo ship is too large, at least several hundred
tons, it’s simply impossible.
So in fact, only 180 tons of dried sea cucumbers were unloaded. It was simply the sea cucumber speculators who scared themselves out of their wits, which caused the market to collapse.
And in the past few days, they also visited the warehouse like last time. They found that the inventory of Shandong sea cucumbers was indeed running low. The remaining 20 tons of goods may barely last until the beginning of November.
Also, Hong Yanwu went to "Clam Bay" not just to see the "Old Saury", he also got some data from the fishing village secretary.
What he knows is that now that the seabed is empty, the average cost for fishing companies to catch dried sea cucumbers has reached as high as thirty yuan per kilogram of dried sea cucumbers, which is far higher than the price of spot goods on the market.
What's more, ordinary people are not fools, and they can definitely tell the quality of the things they import. Shandong sea cucumbers are sold because everyone doesn't understand them.
But as time went by, after comparison, and everyone understood the quality, they naturally felt that they were losing money by buying the quality goods from the store, not to mention that the price of local sea cucumbers on the market was so much cheaper.
This means that it won’t be long before the private trade of sea cucumbers will definitely become prosperous again. Everyone will turn around and rush to grab sea cucumbers from Bin Cheng. The current situation of price inversion will never exist for long.
At this point, all the "Hai Bangzi" could no longer suppress their excitement. They couldn't help but start talking in low voices.
"Okay, now I feel confident. We won't sell the sea cucumbers yet."
"Yes, that's great. There is hope. I can't lose anything."
"What about eldest brother? In this case, eldest brother won't really lose everything..."
Hong Yanwu couldn't bear it any longer when he heard the quarrels of these petty-minded and somewhat under-intellectuals. He banged the table and said something cool.
"You guys are so worthless! Is this all you have? Thanks to me for doing so many detailed and thorough investigations!"
The "Hai Bangzi" were collectively stunned. After looking at each other for a moment, they suddenly realized. "You mean..."
Hong Yanwu's voice was full of excitement. "You're getting money to copy goods! Do you still need to ask? It's time to put on the bayonet and charge!"
But his passion was in vain, because the eyes of the "Hai Bangzi" just showed eagerness, and soon hesitated. Many of them also looked embarrassed.
"Xiao Wu, we don't have much money in our hands..."
"That is, if we have to spend more money to copy goods, we will have to sell the things we have..."
"Is this really a good deal? You will never lose money again? You can guarantee it!"
In full view of the public, Hong Yanwu showed no embarrassment and bluntly said something that was quite heartbreaking.
"That's up to you to decide. Anyway, I'm going to join forces with "General" to do this. The matter is right in front of you. I've said everything that needs to be said. You can't want to make money without taking any risks.
.Isn’t it the same as before?”
"I have to say a few things here. First, there is nothing foolproof in the world. There is only one with a high probability and one with a low probability. There is also the consideration of whether the risks are worthwhile compared with the benefits."
"Second, any business is not gambling, and you can't make something by being stupid or bold or lucky. Although it is easier to make money now by being bold, all the transactions I make must be based on reasonable logic.
Only then can you start. And the more prepared you are and the more you know about the situation, the better chance you have of winning.”
"Third, there is no such thing as a free lunch. I have fulfilled my obligation as a friend by remembering our past friendship and telling you my analysis. There is no need for me to bear any more burdens for you, and there is no reason for you to do more.
What do you want me to guarantee?"
"Actually, to put it bluntly, in the past, the 'general' was too considerate for you and took on too many responsibilities that should not be borne by him. In the end, you complained. Why should you listen to him? It's because of yourselves.
You do this because you think he is more capable, capable and trustworthy than you. This is your own choice."
"But 'General' is also a mortal and will make mistakes. He is not your father. He has no obligation to wipe your butts for nothing and has to be scolded and complained about. Your fault is that for a long time, you have shouldered his responsibility for you.