Chapter 1073 [To find out how much ammunition the opponent has]
When I first came in, I could exchange 1 U.S. dollar for 8 RMB for you. Now that I'm leaving, not only have I made a lot of money, but I can also exchange 6 RMB for 1 U.S. dollar for him.
The foreign trade surplus has been rising year after year, and they continue to earn US dollars outside. However, the foreign exchange earned is exchanged by them in this way, and they cannot support the exchange of surpluses year after year. This is also an important reason why the surplus every year is so large and the foreign exchange reserves never increase.
one.
Not only did you work in vain, but you also polluted your own environment. When the time comes, you will have to spend money to clean up the environment. You will definitely have to pay for it yourself. They will not pay for it, and they will accuse you of destroying it.
Earth environment.
In addition, there are a large number of immigrants, and immigrants also consume a lot of foreign exchange reserves. They leave the RMB in the mainland and exchange it for US dollars before running out.
There are also those who travel and study abroad. The families who can study abroad are quite wealthy. Spending hundreds of thousands of dollars is considered a conservative figure. One million overseas students will consume hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange.
With such a consumption capacity, it is an incredible miracle that foreign exchange reserves can still remain at a scale of three to four trillion US dollars.
If it were another country, the foreign exchange would have dried up and collapsed.
Thanks to the fact that the economy is in an incremental situation of rapid growth, the foreign trade surplus has been rising year after year, and the continuous earning of more US dollars has barely offset such a large-scale consumption.
Finally, Fang Hongwang asked the beautiful assistant: "Where are the outflow data of domestic capital?"
"We also compiled a document on the outflow of domestic capital." Tian Jiayi immediately took out another document. She opened the document and looked at it before replying: "One is investment overseas by mainland wealthy people, and the other is foreign investment.
"
Tian Jiayi looked at the materials and said in an orderly manner: "Mainland tycoons are accelerating their overseas investment layout in recent years. The value of their overseas properties alone is easily worth billions. Take this year as an example, some mainland tycoons are among the most expensive in the UK.
Renjie spent 770 million yuan to buy a luxury house, and the tax paid to Yingguo alone was as high as 92 million yuan, breaking the local record of stamp tax on home purchases."
"Another example is that a wealthy mainland man spent US$140 million in North America to buy a Brandon Park the size of 18 West Lakes." Tian Jiayi raised his eyes and looked at Fang Hong and added: "Data shows that in the five years from 2010 to now,
During this period, domestic people from all walks of life have invested at least US$110 billion in the North American real estate market alone, becoming the largest foreign buyer in the North American real estate market."
With the current economic growth slowing down, coupled with the economic recovery in North America and expectations of interest rate hikes, domestic capital has begun to flow out on a large scale since the second half of last year.
This year, there has been an even crazier exodus.
Many mainland wealthy people are frantically "buying, buying, buying" overseas, which has further increased the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB.
After a while, Tian Jiayi looked at the document again and said: "Another major force in the outflow of domestic capital is the accompanying immigrants. Based on the data from the Bureau of Statistics and the Exit-Entry Administration, it is estimated that the number of immigrants in the first three quarters of this year has been
It reaches 7 million, and according to this trend, we internally estimate that the scale of transfer in 2015 will exceed the 10 million mark."
Tian Jiayi closed the materials and looked at Fang Hong and added: "Immigrants from the mainland are mainly divided into four categories: immigrants for study abroad, immigrants for business investment, immigrants for skilled workers, and immigrants for employment. Among them, the number of immigrants studying abroad accounts for a large proportion.
proportion."
The birth of every immigrant means becoming a potential exchange target, with the expectation of selling off mainland RMB assets in exchange for foreign currency outflows.
Although the wealth of most immigrants cannot be compared with those of the rich, it cannot cope with the sheer size of this group.
This year's foreign exchange reserves have been significantly reduced, but the scale is still as huge as 4 trillion U.S. dollars. This is due to the fact that Qunxing Capital made a huge profit last year by cutting off Wall Street. If this part of foreign exchange is removed, the figure should be 3.3 trillion U.S. dollars.
There is another important change this year, which is that foreign exchange reserves have decreased for the first time in decades. As of last month's data, they have dropped significantly by US$200 billion.
Especially in the second half of this year, the stock market has plummeted, the foreign exchange market has also plummeted, economic growth has slowed, and many factors such as expectations of U.S. dollar interest rate hikes have accelerated the outflow of domestic capital.
A series of factors seem to be sending a signal: the RMB exchange rate may be about to reverse, and the time to short the RMB is ripe.
Under this circumstance, international short sellers became excited again even if the stock market did not meet their expectations.
If you want to make waves in the foreign exchange market, the most troublesome thing for international short sellers is the huge foreign exchange reserves of the great eastern country. After all, it still has a reserve scale of 4 trillion U.S. dollars, which can be said to be the largest in the world.
But then again, the scale of foreign exchange reserves of US$4 trillion may sound unshakable, but it is not unshakable as long as it can trigger panic.
As long as 80 million of the 1.4 billion people in the country exchange the prescribed amount of US$50,000, the US$4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves will be exhausted, enough to trigger a collapse.
We must know that the number of people transferring this year alone will exceed 10 million. Assuming that all 10 million people exchange 50,000 U.S. dollars this year, they can exchange for a huge amount of 500 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange.
Because of this, those international short sellers and foreign media have always spared no effort to mobilize the power of public opinion to belittle the big Eastern countries, and spare no effort to exaggerate the "collapse theory", just to cause panic and spread it on a large scale.
If a large-scale foreign exchange run occurs, even doubling the size of the huge foreign exchange reserves of 4 trillion yuan will not be able to withstand it.
Since September this year, many international short sellers have publicly shorted the RMB, including Quantum Endowment Fund, Hart's Hedge Fund, Ackman's Pershing Capital, Hyman Capital and a large number of international hedge funds.
.
But at this moment, Fang Hong thought for a while and then ordered: "Let Shi Yao secretly arrange a matter to conduct a thorough investigation of offshore RMB, especially to find out how many offshore RMB there are in Hong Kong and Xinjiapo."
, you must give me the data within two months. The main battlefield of this foreign exchange market game will be played in Hong Kong as it was twenty years ago."
International short sellers want to stir up trouble in the foreign exchange market by shorting the RMB. No matter what operating methods they adopt, they still need ammunition for the RMB. This is a prerequisite that cannot be circumvented.
Therefore, we must first understand the scale of offshore RMB and how much ammunition our opponents have.
With the development of the economy, RMB gradually flows to markets outside the mainland. These RMB flowing out are called offshore RMB, which corresponds to onshore RMB.
HK is the world's major offshore RMB market, and the mainland and HK have different supply and demand for RMB, different management mechanisms, and the exchange rates of offshore RMB and onshore RMB are not exactly the same.
Although the mainland implements foreign exchange controls, there will still be flows of RMB between the two markets.
They are all the same currency, but the prices in the two markets are different, so there is naturally room for arbitrage, that is, buying in the low-price market and selling in the high-price market to take advantage of the interest rate difference.
In the onshore RMB market, international capital cannot convert U.S. dollars and RMB at will, so short sellers can only attack the RMB in the offshore RMB market and use this to drive the onshore RMB to depreciate.
Therefore, the main battlefield of this foreign exchange offensive and defensive war must be fought offshore.
