The time has come, New Year’s Day, Friday, January 1, 2016.
With the arrival of a new year and the official end of 2015, the A-share market index is locked at 3539.18 points. "Ice and fire" is the most appropriate adjective for the ups and downs of the A-share market in the past year.
Investors were even more shocked when they looked back at K-God's outlook for 2015 at the beginning of last year, because this year was really like "ice and fire" as K-God said, and K-God's super performance was as stable as ever.
Investors have experienced a complete round of bull and bear market conditions in a year with the momentum of a "roller coaster". The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index soared from 3258 points at the beginning of the year to 5178 points in mid-June, and then plunged sharply to 2850 points. Finally,
One trading day closed with a negative line at 3539 points. The index's annual amplitude exceeded 80%, and the GEM index's amplitude exceeded 180%.
This year, a series of unusual phenomena such as the daily limit of 1,000 shares, the daily limit of 1,000 shares, the suspension of trading of 1,000 shares, and the daily turnover of 100 billion stocks were an eye-opener for everyone.
In the A-share market in 2015, there was one word that undoubtedly impressed every investor, and that was capital allocation. In fact, capital allocation is not a new word, but it made everyone remember it in the past 2015.
: First make you crazy, then let you perish.
In the first half of the year, A-shares have been soaring, and the balance of margin financing has reached a historical peak of 2.5 trillion. Off the market, which cannot be counted, various capital allocation companies have emerged one after another, and ten-fold leverage can be found everywhere.
Finally, in June, as the management investigated over-the-counter allocations, the Hang Seng HOMS system was shut down, and the securities firms and allocation companies involved were fined. A-shares also changed their face overnight, and allocations were shipped crazily and trampled everywhere.
Throughout 2015, the mood trend of A-share investors has been ups and downs, ranging from optimism, excitement, excitement, and fanaticism; to anxiety, worry, panic, and despair; to disarmment, frustration, depression, and hope.
The stock market exploded all the way to 2850 points and then rebounded to 3539 points by the end of the year. Investors once again rekindled new hopes, especially the highly anticipated launch of the SGX.
New Year's Day has just arrived today, and one place is very busy, and that is Fang Hong's personal social media Weibo account. Now there are thousands of investors guarding his main business, and they refresh it from time to time.
There are thousands of retail investors, investment institutions, and some media people all watching.
Because according to the practice of previous years, Fang Hong will update a long post on Weibo in the new year to review and look forward to the capital market. Star Capital never makes any predictions or publishes any market analysis reports. Fang Hong posted on Weibo
FaDong’s views and prospects on the capital market have gradually been benchmarked against Qunxing Capital.
Judging from previous years, Fang Hong's predictions and analyzes over the years have been terrifyingly accurate. The prediction of "ice and fire market" in 2015 is almost perfectly consistent with the actual market situation, which also makes the influence of his blog posts increase year by year.
Great, I don’t know how many people regard it as a guide now.
…
At around 13:00 in the afternoon, Fang Hong logged into his personal Weibo and browsed private messages and comments for half an hour.
At the same time, he is also thinking about how to write this blog post this year. He knows very well that there are countless people watching and guarding his Weibo account. Every word he posts may be analyzed word for word and affected.
The power will also be extremely huge.
Don't just say random things, because there will really be thousands of people who believe it and will even use it as a guide to formulate and implement strategies, which will also have a huge impact on the market.
It seems that everything is calm at the moment, but the foreign exchange market has already been gaining momentum. It is not an exaggeration to say that the storm is about to come.
Finally, after Fang Hong thought about it, he started typing on the keyboard to edit a long article:
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I read a lot of private message messages from netizens, and one netizen’s private message left a particularly deep impression on me. He said why my life is always slow and I can’t catch up no matter how hard I try. I’m even very depressed, especially when I see how bad I am.
The situation of my original family is very desperate, and I even have great doubts about life.
I want to say that this is not your fault. You are just half a beat behind the times. In fact, you are very good. It is normal for you to be a few beats behind.
Because others can buy a house at the age of 25 with the down payment provided by their parents, but you can buy a house at the age of 35 with your own accumulation; because others get married at the age of 25 and their parents provide gifts, but you can buy a house at the age of 35 even if you are alone.
Not dragging anyone down.
So, don’t blame yourself too much, you are really great.
Because when others were growing up, you were still stuck in the confinement of your family of origin, and when others were making crazy money, you didn’t have your parents to give you guidance. You were still trying to distinguish right from wrong on your own, and you were still trying to get out of your mental infighting.
Others are very powerful when they reach the top of the mountain, but if you start from the bottom and can climb to the ground, it is also very powerful.
The pace of social development nowadays is getting faster and faster. People are all rushing to find horses. Some people even impatiently plan to kill the donkey before they even find the horse. Everyone should try their best to keep up and adapt to this situation.
Rhythm, take one step and watch three steps.
What worries me most now is that in this age of materialism and suspicion, you have lost your faith and you no longer believe. I am worried that you will only see more and more people pursuing status only, while more and more people are pursuing the truth.
The less; I am worried that you will only see more and more people discussing treatment and fewer and fewer people discussing ideals.
But we still need ideals and must not lose faith. We firmly believe that superior skills can defeat nepotism, that the academic scene is different from power struggles, and that the pursuit of character can defeat flattery. When we step into society and become the backbone of the times,
Protect the passion and ideals that you and I once burned. Even in this era of doubt, we still strengthen the beliefs in our hearts and practice the ideals in our hearts.
In the capital market recently, various things have made many people anxious, confused, and feeling in a state of chaos. They don’t know what to do. They are worried about wealth depreciation, inflation, and worry about this and that.
The safest strategy is to hold cash flow. Don't be afraid of inflation or devaluation. If you are really afraid, just exchange it for U.S. dollars. But anyway, I firmly hold RMB cash flow.
If it doesn't work, choose a general equivalent with absolute liquidity, such as gold. Although the international gold price has been falling for the past five consecutive years, from US$2,000/ounce four or five years ago to a recent low of US$1,046/ounce, almost halving at this time.
If you don't trust anything, there will basically be no big problem in holding gold.
If you only have three melons and two dates, then just keep it in the bank. Although the interest rate is low, it is safe at least. If you really want to ask me how to invest in the stock market, then buy the NSE 50 index and hold it for a long time. Let’s start the new year.
On the first trading day, the SGX opens, and you can buy the SGX 50 Index ETF and so on.
In the future, someone will ask me what to invest in, and my answer is simple, clear, and consistent: adhere to a long-term strategy and invest in the SGX 50 Index.
