Chapter 339: Whoever treats it as a lamb is waiting to be slaughtered
Chapter 339 [Future index, whoever treats it as a lamb is the lamb to be slaughtered]
After the market closed in the afternoon, Fang Hong sat on the sofa area in the main living room on the first floor of the villa and watched the special program on the first day of listing of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures being broadcast on the financial news channel.
The program team invited two so-called stock review experts to interpret and comment on it. Fang Hong was watching this program when he had nothing to do.
In the studio, the host could only be seen facing the camera and saying: [...Welcome back, the much-anticipated stock index futures finally met with investors today, and the first trading day has closed. Guests are invited to comment on the first trading day.
The performance is for everyone to interpret.]
Girl Hutao sat next to Fang Hong, peeled a piece of apple and put it in his mouth, feeling very comfortable with nothing to do.
The voice of the stock commentator came from the TV: [Judging from today's market performance, all four contracts of stock index futures opened higher, among which the main contract IF1005 opened higher at 3450 points, an increase of more than 2%; the 1012 contract opened higher
The range even reached over 7%, opening at 3618.8 points, which shows that investors are still used to speculating on new stocks.]
Guest: [However, the four contracts all showed a trend of opening high and moving low. The contracts all hit the highest point in the morning 5 minutes before the opening, and then fell all the way until 10:30. They stopped falling and stabilized, and began to build a platform for consolidation. In the afternoon
At 13:30, the futures index began to rise, but the good times did not last long. At 14:10, it began to trend downward again. It fell sharply in late trading, but it all closed above the benchmark price.]
Moderator: [Well, yes, let’s take a look at the closing data. The 1005 contract rose by +0.49%, the 1006 contract rose by +1.25%, the 1009 contract rose by +3.32%, and the 1012 contract rose by +4.65%. But we also noticed
Today the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13 percentage points. What do the two guests think of this?]
Guest: [Judging from the intraday futures and spot trends, the intraday correlation between the futures contract and the spot index is not high. Although the futures index is higher than the current index, it is significantly lower than the daily limit range. Therefore, it can be said that the stock index futures
The operation was very smooth on the first day of listing.]
Hearing the words of the stock commentator, Fang Hong couldn't help but smile. He was slapped in the face next Monday, and he didn't know how he would respond.
Moderator: [The trading volume of more than 60 billion on the first trading day of stock index futures shows that investors are very enthusiastic to participate. However, although the four contracts closed in the green, they showed a trend of opening higher and moving lower.]
Guest: [As a result, today’s futures and spot prices are diverging. The maximum price difference between the spot price and the spot price may be close to 90 points in the middle of the session, and the lowest is more than 50 points. There will be a large number of futures and spot arbitrage opportunities during the session, as well as short-selling opportunities on highs. The trend of opening high and moving low makes
More investors are getting a taste of making money from short selling for the first time.]
Guest: [We have just made a rough calculation. If calculated according to the highest point and the lowest point, the May contract can earn up to 15% if it is wrong, and the maximum loss is 15% if it is made; the June contract can earn up to 14.8% if it is made.
The maximum compensation for mistakes is 18.3%; the maximum profit for September contracts is 22.26%, and the maximum compensation for mistakes is 22.26%; the maximum compensation for December contracts is 18.3%, and the maximum compensation for mistakes is 18.3%.]
Moderator: [These data fully illustrate the leverage effect of the stock index futures market.]
Guest: [Yes, yes, yes, because it is generally impossible to make or lose more than 10% in a day in the spot market, which means that the stock index futures market has high returns and high risks. Different from the stock market, stock index futures are a zero-sum game.
If both sides make money, there will definitely be losses.]
Guest: [Everyone who went short today basically made a profit, and those who went long basically lost everything. Billions of funds were transferred from the long side to the short side today, so investors who were long can only watch the money in their accounts.
funds were transferred.]
Moderator: [What do the two guests think of the trading volume on the first day?]
Guest: [In terms of trading volume, on the first day of listing, the trading volume of the futures index contract exceeded market expectations. From the perspective of trading and position divisions, the 1005 contract is truly the main contract. The trading volume and open interest are both around 80%. The main contract IF1005
48,988 lots were traded, far exceeding market expectations of 10,000 lots.]
Guest: [From the data disclosed by Changcheng Weiye Futures, the transaction volume of the four contracts is calculated as 60,000 lots. At the same time, based on the 7,000 customers participating in the transaction, the average transaction volume per account is 8.6 lots. Based on the average of 100 yuan per lot.
Calculating handling fees, the first day of listing of the futures index brought about 12 million yuan in revenue to the industry. The problem of insufficient liquidity that the market had previously worried about did not appear, but most investors entering the market mainly conducted exploratory transactions.]
Fang Hong watched the TV show without saying a word. The newly opened venue collected 12 million yuan in commissions on the first day. Based on this base, the revenue is 3 billion yuan a year. In fact, there will be more and more transactions.
, this money is earned steadily.
The program is still going on, host: [According to our reporter from Hongye Futures, we learned that more than half of the company’s customers participated in the first day of trading of stock index futures. Analysts from Hongye Futures said that as a new thing, stock index futures
Most investors regard the first order as an experience. One of the customers placed the order in a hedging manner. He made a long and short move each and made exploratory operations in both directions at the same time, aiming to avoid risks.]
Moderator: [In addition, news from the Changcheng Weiye Futures Sales Department shows that the amount of funds used by trading customers today exceeded 50% of the margin ratio, and there was no so-called liquidation situation.]
Guest: [As the first batch of investors to participate in stock index futures, it is my first time to participate in real trading operations and try my skills. Profit and loss are not important, what is important is experience (laughing)]
Moderator: [What do the two guests think are the characteristics of the first day trading of stock index futures?]
Guest: [Based on the performance of the first day of trading, I think there are the following four major characteristics. First, there is a long complex. Many investors have been engaged in securities investment. In the long-term investment process, they have developed a long complex, which makes today’s valuation
It rose sharply at the opening. The far-month contract IF1012 once rose by +7.91%. Other contracts also generally experienced large increases, allowing old futures customers to gain greater profits through short selling.]
Guest: [The second is the emergence of arbitrage opportunities. Affected by the country's real estate policies, the CSI 300 spot index has a larger range, driven by bank stocks, closing at 3356.3 points, down 38.24 points throughout the day. Affected by the long complex, the stock index
The front-month futures contract IF1005 closed at 3415.6 points, an increase of 16.6 points. There was a premium of 59.3 points between futures and spot. The large basis difference gave rise to arbitrage opportunities in the market.]
Guest: [The third reason is that there are many short-term speculators. Although stock index futures trading is active, most investors choose intraday trading. The highest position of the IF1005 contract was only 3,300 lots. In the end, only 2,702 contracts were held overnight. Most investors
Investors were unwilling to take the overnight risk on weekends and chose to close within the day.]
Guest: [The last characteristic is that most institutions did not move. The investors on the first day of futures listing were obviously retail investors. The intraday trading volume was basically less than 10 lots, and there were only 6 orders exceeding 100 lots. Most institutions were obviously there.
While waiting and watching, today's market situation should be a test of the market. Except for the six largest 100-lot transactions, no large funds have entered.]
Fang Hong watched it for a while and then closed the special program. The two special guests also analyzed the six large orders in stock index futures today, but there was nothing interesting.
The capital market is hotly discussing the issue of stock index futures. In the current news, many experts in the public offering, private equity, and futures fields predict that once the stock index futures are launched, it will stimulate institutions to "grab" blue chip stocks, leading to a wave of rise.
Markets, they are worried about the short-selling nature of stock index futures, and they say that this worry is somewhat more than.
The reasons can be roughly summarized as follows: First, 3100 points in the market is not too high, the valuation of the weighted sectors is low, and the market has no motivation to short-sell; Second, institutions participate in stock index futures in a single way, and can only participate in hedging business under the authorization system, and cannot carry out hedging business.
Speculation; third, the current scale of stock index futures is still too small, and private equity funds and other hot funds have a relatively limited guiding role in the spot market.
The emotions of expectation and longing placed on the table seem to give people the impression that stock index futures are just a docile lamb.
But in fact, whoever regards it as a lamb is a lamb to be slaughtered.
Fang Hong looked at the news and was looking forward to it. He could only watch in silence without saying a word, and then wait for the opening of the next trading day.
Add a short order.
He knew that after the launch of stock index futures, Big A was defeated as soon as it came up. Big A suddenly fell like crazy and continued to fall. The long-term negative position broke out without any decent rebound. This is when the A-share market entered the era of hedging.
A portrait of the first month.
After that, A-shares fell for more than two months. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index jumped from 3130.30 points, and the lowest reached just over 2300 points in early July.
The total market value has also evaporated by more than 8 trillion yuan.
After plummeting in the first half of the year, it once again rose above 3100 points in the second half of the year, staged a roller coaster market of plummeting and rising, but since then, it has embarked on a long and bearish path of decline.
