Junshan Notes: Daomen Reliability Statistics and Forecast Analysis for the Next 100 Years
This article was published in the fourth week of May of "Junshan Notes". It is the opinion of Junshan Friends and has nothing to do with Babao Taoist.
Author: Qi Zhixiu—Friends of Junshan
(Part 1)
Limited to Zhao Ran's Taoist position, the first time Babao Taoist mentioned "faith power" was after the victory of Baima Mountain in the 20th year of Jiajing [1]. Junshan Temple contributed 336,000 Gui in the 19th year of Jiajing. It was mentioned later.
, the total credibility of Sichuan Province in Jiajing 19 years was recorded at 56 million Gui, ranking ninth among the thirteen provinces in the two capitals [2,3]. Later, the credibility required to accept the throne was introduced, starting from
The Taoist realm ranges from 18,000 Gui to the Hedao realm of 72 million Gui [4]. The first time it was explicitly mentioned that the total national credibility was in the 20th year of Jiajing, it was 1.2 billion Gui [5]. From then on
, from the 20th year of Jiajing to the 28th year of Jiajing, the total national trust income was clearly specified [7-18]. The only exception was in the 24th year of Jiajing, when Babao Taoist only gave the per capita trust contribution of the Ming Dynasty that year, which was about 10 Gui
[11]. Based on the population of the Ming Dynasty in Jiajing 20 years (110 million) [5], and the world's average annual population growth rate (1.2%), it is estimated that the population in Jiajing 24 years was 115 million
Ten thousand, the national credit revenue that year was 1.15 billion Gui. From Jiajing 20 to 28, the national annual credit revenue first increased (from 20 to 22), and then decreased (from 23 to 24).
It increased again (after 25 years). Among them, the lowest was in 24 years. If we ignore the huge credibility brought by Zhang Laodao's ascension (51 million gui), the actual credibility in 22 years is lower than the income in 21. But Zhang Laodao's ascension
The consumption of credibility is far greater than its positive income: a total consumption of 5.4 billion credibility, including 3.6 billion to build the Hong Bridge and 1.8 billion to resist the 18 thunderstorms [6].
Based on the above assumed population growth rate, the Ming Dynasty’s per capita annual contribution to credit from 20 to 28 years of Jiajing was the lowest at 10 Gui (in 24 years) and the highest at 11.57 Gui (in 28 years). Interestingly, in Jiajing 21 and 22, the per capita contribution to credit was
The strength was 11.17 and 11.39 kyu, ranking fourth and second highest in the past nine years. The reason may be that at that time, the Shangsan Palace and the imperial court had not yet behaved as they would later. The per capita contribution of credit began to increase in the 25th year of Jiajing.
The reason is probably that the monks hold the Taoist priesthood in Shifang Jungle.
Taking into account the limitations of environmental resources on population, it is assumed that the population of the Ming Dynasty will not exceed 150 million in the foreseeable decades (data from the 28th year of Wanli in this world, 59 years from the 20th year of Jiajing). It is predicted that after the 28th year of Jiajing
There are two ways to estimate the national trustworthiness: one is to predict the growth of per capita trustworthiness based on the effectiveness of preaching; the other is to determine the annual growth rate of the national trustworthiness based on an overall view.
For the first method, the annual growth in per capita credibility can be calculated from the actual data from Jiajing 2025 to 28. In the four years, the growth rate fluctuated between 1.22% and 6.66%, with an average of 3.74%. However, per capita credibility will not
It has been growing. According to the data of Jiajing 20 years, the per capita credit contribution of Xixia is 15 Gui, and that of Tubo is as high as 22 Gui [5]. Then if the per capita credit contribution of Ming people is limited to 15 Gui per year, this limit will be in the 35th year of Jiajing
Reaching, means that the per capita credibility of the Ming Dynasty will not increase after the 36th year of Jiajing; if the 22 Gui of Tubo is used as the limit, the upper limit of the per capita credibility will be reached in the 45th year of Jiajing. In the first case, the next inventory total of the Ming Dynasty
It was the 41st year of Jiajing when Xinli reached 6 billion Gui, which was 19 years after Zhang Laodao’s ascension. Note that this calculation method takes into account that only 20% of Xinli’s income enters the overall credit pool, and after Zhang Laodao’s ascension
Overall, there is still a stock of 1.2 billion Gui. The next time it can provide the 6 billion Gui credit required for Hedao monks to ascend will be 13 years later in the 54th year of Jiajing. Since the population and per capita credit will not increase again after that,
Overall, the trust income has reached a balance, that is, 6 billion Gui will be provided every 13 years to upgrade the trust. For the per capita trust with the upper limit of 22 Gui, the next upgrade time will be in the 40th year of Jiajing, the 18th year after Zhang Laodao's promotion; in the future
The time intervals for ascension are 10 years and 9 years, and will remain stable at 9 years. Therefore, increasing the upper limit of per capita trust from 15 guinea to 22 guinea will provide one more opportunity for ascension in the 40 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension (
3 times, compare 4 times). Considering that there are actually ten Hedao realm monks in the Taoist sect, all the required faith (60 billion Gui) will be gathered from 100 to 136 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension.
For the second method of determining the growth rate of credibility from an overall perspective, the results are similar to the above discussion. The current annual growth rate of credibility determined by the overview is 5%, which is converted into a per capita credibility growth of 3.75%, which is very close to the first method.
The annual growth rate of per capita credibility in the plan is 3.74%. This shows that Taoism’s overall view respects objective laws.
This prediction only estimates the time it takes for Hedao realm monks to ascend on a one-hundred-year scale from the perspective of confidence growth. The actual situation is also affected by many factors, such as the age of Hedao realm monks, the order of ascension, and the time required to practice to the perfection of Hedao realm.
time, the number of newly promoted Taoists, etc. On a larger time scale, such as two hundred or even five hundred years, the number of monks will be affected by more factors, such as the number of bone-setting pills distributed and the success rate of bone-setting, the lack of cultivation resources, and the number of monks within the Taoist sect.
Struggles between Buddhism and Taoism, Confucianism and Taoism, imperial power and Taoism, etc.
References:
1 Volume 7 Chapter 55
2 Volume 7, Chapter 66
3 Volume 7, Chapter 67
4 Episode 8 Chapter 4
5 Volume 9 Chapter 66
6 Volume 9 Chapter 146
7 Volume 10, Chapter 54
8 Volume 10, Chapter 129
9 Volume 10 Chapter 130
10 Volume 11 Chapter 27
11 Volume 11 Chapter 28
12 Volume 11 Chapter 80
13 Volume 11 Chapter 81
14 Volume 11 Chapter 149
15 Volume 12 Chapter 13
16 Volume 12 Chapter 35
17 Volume 12 Chapter 100
18 Volume 12 Chapter 101
(Part 2)
In the latest news from Taoist Taoists revealed by Taoist Babao, whether the credibility will be sufficient after a hundred years has become an important factor limiting the development of Taoism. This also determines the development direction of Taoism in the next few decades. It is a continued challenge to the imperial power and the people for a hundred years.
In order to achieve absolute rule, it is better to give it a try and find other ways to ascend besides trust. Although the Taoist leaders are full of worries about the foreseeable future (that is, 120 years later), according to the article published in the second week of May in "Junshan Notes"
In the article Prediction and Analysis of the Ming Dynasty’s Faith, there is still room for research on the growth of faith and its impact on the ascension of Hedao monks. This article will continue the previous analysis and make a more accurate prediction of the growth of faith in a hundred years, as well as the number of monks in a hundred years.
, especially the number of Hedao realm monks, make a prediction.
1. Confidence prediction model
As mentioned in the previous article, based on the estimated annual population growth rate of 1.2% and the upper limit of 150 million, if the per capita annual credit contribution of the Ming Dynasty reaches 22 Gui, it will stably provide an opportunity for promotion once every 9 years in 30 years. In fact, 22 Gui
The per capita credibility value has already been reached in some areas of the Ming Dynasty. For example, in the 19th year of Jiajing, the Junshan Temple's per capita credibility contribution actually reached 28 Gui, and the Tianshi Temple under Longhu Mountain also had 26 Gui [1]. Therefore, the per capita credibility contribution of 22 Gui
The goal is not unattainable. In addition, the annual population growth rate seems to be predicted to be too high. According to the latest disclosed number of Taoist monks [2], it is also assumed that the ratio of monks to the population is basically constant (0.12%, Jiajing 18, 24, and 30 years of statistics
Data), it can be deduced that the annual population growth rate in Jiajing since 18 years is about 0.6%, which is half of the previously assumed value. Therefore, after revising the predictions of the previous confidence model, it is concluded that the time interval for the next four surges is 19 years.
10 years, 10 years, 9 years, and will be stable at 9 years.
2. Ascension sorting and prediction
In the 29th year of Jiajing, there were 10 Taoist monks in the Taoist sect. In order of promotion, they were: Patriarch Longyang, Shao Yuanjie, Duanmu Chongqing, Tao Zhongwen, Patriarch Tieguan Zhang Zhong, Feng Lingdu, Zhang Yunyi, Wang Changyu, Jiao Yuanjun, Pan Yuanjun (Ruizhu)
Madam). There are also two people who have retreated to the Hedao realm, Zhang Yangming and Pan Tianshi. Among the ten Hedao masters, Patriarch Long Yang is the same age as Shao Yuanjie, both 247 years old; Tao Zhongwen is 210 years old, Jiao Yuanjun is 193 years old, and Pan Yuanjun, a new Hedao disciple, is about 165 years old
【3】.According to the newly revised credibility prediction model, General View will once again accumulate the credibility required for Zhang Da’s ascension 19 years after his ascension, but Patriarch Longyang has to wait another two years (the Heavenly Court’s penalty period expires in 81 years)
He will ascend again, at the age of 261. Master Shao will ascend in 8 years, at the age of 269. In another 19 years, Tao Zhongwen will ascend, at the age of 251. Jiao Yuanjun will have to wait for more than 80 years, and ascend at the age of 279. The highest ranking
The last Pan Yuanjun waited the longest, 102 years after Zhang Dazhen ascended to the throne, and he was 256 years old at that time.
Considering that Hedao realm monks have a long lifespan, and those with longevity can reach 300 years [4], the above estimates of the age of ascension are feasible. Therefore, if there are no other accidents in the 100 years for the ten Hedao realm monks currently in sequence,
All can be safely ascended according to the existing Taoist sect's faith ascension model. If the Hedao monks are already running out of life, it is a different matter. Taoist sect senior officials once revealed that Master Feng Da is older. The evaluation model predicts that 66 years after Master Zhang Da's ascension, Feng Da will be
Da Zhenren can ascend. If Feng Da Zhenren is not over 211 years old this year (the 29th year of Jiajing), he can still ascend before the age of 270.
Regarding the issue of the upper limit of age when ascending to the Hedao realm, the most worthy examples are Zhang Dazhen and Longyang Patriarch. However, according to the author's analysis, there are doubts about Zhang Dazhen's age. Babao Taoist has repeatedly revealed that Zhang Dazhen has a long life.
Around 300 years old. However, according to what Zhang Dazhen said in the 21st year of Jiajing, he joined the Taoist movement 98 years ago [5]; and according to what Zhenren Zhao of Dongji Pavilion said, Zhang Dazhen entered the Taoist tradition at the age of 173 [6].
Therefore, the actual age of Master Zhang Da should be 234 years old when he ascended. The age of Patriarch Longyang is much clearer. If there is no accident, Patriarch Longyang was 261 years old when he ascended. In any case, before Babao Taoist provides more detailed data, Jiao Yuanjun will
It is clearly known that the oldest Hedao person was at the time of his ascension (279 years old), but it is still lower than the upper limit of the lifespan of a Hedao realm monk.
3. Forecast of growth in the next 120 years
In the latest news, the number of Taoist monks has increased sharply, from 3,000 every 100 years a hundred years ago to 3,000 every 6 years today [2]. Twenty years after Jiajing, due to the advent of the Bone-Setting Classic, Bone-Setting Pills were distributed in several dramas
The success rate of bone setting is as high as 90%. The senior leaders of Taoism are worried about the excessive number of monks in the next 120 years and the increase in the number of Hetao monks.
According to the revised population growth model, it is estimated that in the 100 years before the 18th year of Jiajing, the population of the Ming Dynasty was more than 59.8 million. Corresponding to the number of monks of 129,000, there were two monks per 1,000 people (0.22%)
, slightly higher than the current ratio (0.12%). If the current ratio is used and the population upper limit is set to 150 million, then in 120 years, the number of monks with complete qualifications will be 180,000.
Before calculating the number of monks increased by using the bone-setting pill, you must first consider the influence period of the bone-setting pill, that is, the time affected by each successful bone-setting. This period is mainly affected by the longevity of the monks. Since it is difficult for most monks to enter the realm of mage (
Lifespan is 80) [4]. According to rough statistics, the effect of bone-setting pills will be reset after 100 years. In recent years, an average of more than 700 bone-setting pills have been distributed every year [2]. Leave some margin so that the number of bone-setting pills does not exceed 1,000 per year.
After a hundred years of continuous distribution, each year is affected by the number of bone-setting pills distributed in the previous 100 years. Therefore, after 120 years, the total number of bone-setting monks who have entered spiritual practice will be approximately 100,000.
There are currently more than 130,000 monks, and the number of Hedao monks is at most 10 and at least 9, which is about 7 Hedao monks for every 100,000 monks. According to this ratio, after 120 years, there will be about 13 of the 180,000 monks who do not need bone setting.
People can be a Taoist; among the 100,000 monks who have entered the practice of bone setting, there can be 7 Hedao. Therefore, after 120 years, there will be a total of 280,000 monks in the Ming Dynasty, of which 20 are a Taoist. According to the prediction of faith in the previous article, in 120 years
After that, 10 Hedao including Pan Yuanjun have been promoted; and at least one new Hedao has been promoted after Pan Yuanjun. After that, all Hedao are new Hedao, and the interval between each promotion is 9 years. Ranked in
The 14th ranked Hedao monk needs to wait 126 years. If this monk is about 160 years old like Pan Yuanjun when he enters Hedao, he can still ascend at the age of 286. The 15th to 20th ranked Hedao monks need to wait 135 years
It can last from 180 years to 180 years. If your lifespan is limited, there is really not much hope for your ascension.
Considering the speed of monks' cultivation, Chu Yangcheng entered the practice of Xu in the 34th year, which can be called a wizard [7]. The time required to practice the Xu to reach the Hedao is unknown, and it is estimated to be 20 years. The completion of the Hedao was in the 38th year of Zhang Dazhen and the 33rd year of Shao Datianshi.
【6】. Therefore, a monk can wait for ascension in as short as 90 years. Just like Master Zhang Dazhen gave up his ascension order (two orders), or like Patriarch Longyang who postponed his ascension for 81 years, it is very likely that future genius monks will also give up their ascension order to those who are behind.
The longevity of Hedao is short. Therefore, the current trust system may be able to support the promotion of 20 Hedao in 120 years.
4. Population limit
This analysis uses 150 million as the upper limit of the population of the Ming Dynasty. If a higher upper limit is considered, such as 1.5 billion, both the number of monks and the total income of faith will change. After 120 years, the total number of monks who do not need bone setting will be 287,000
There are more than 20 Hedao; there are also 100,000 bone-setting monks, 7 of whom are Hedao. A total of 27 Hedao. And the population has exceeded the upper limit of 150 million, which also brings a lot of credibility. Currently waiting for ascension
It will take a total of 93 years for all ten Hedao to ascend. After that, the ascension interval will gradually decrease from 7 years to 5 years. After 120 years, the ascension interval will even further decrease. If only the 27 Hedao are considered, the last Hedao will be
It will take at most 135 years to soar, which is even faster than the 180 years estimated in the previous analysis. For the longer future, the growth in the number and credibility of Hedao requires further analysis.
5.Conclusion
In the next 120 years, if the per capita credibility can be guaranteed to continue to increase to 22 Gui at an annual growth rate of 3.74%, and the number of bone-setting pills distributed each year does not exceed 1,000, it can be guaranteed that there will be 10 Hedao people today and 14 Hedao people in the same period in the future.
Smooth ascension; the success of the Hedao ascension of those ranked 15 to 20 depends on the age of the monk and the exchange order of the monks in the top ranking. If the population growth of the Ming Dynasty can exceed the upper limit of 150 million, according to this trust development model, after 120 years
It can still provide 27 Hedao co-exists with a smooth promotion at the same time.
References
1. Volume 7 Chapter 91 Guests from Longhu Mountain