It is also the day when the Thai baht short option on Gu Kun’s hand can be lifted and closed when it expires.
Early that morning, Gu Kun flew to Bangkok with a high profile, and then participated in a live interview program on a local national television station.
In the past few days, Thailand's official media, large and small, had already warmed up public opinion in accordance with the conditions Durad brought back.
Now, everyone in Thailand knows that Gu Kun has a new identity: he is a new friend of the Thai people, a famous value investment guru, and has proposed many solutions to the overheating economic problems in Southeast Asian countries.
Friendly people, political figures from Lanzhou...
The reason why it has become so popular is thanks to the fact that Gu Kun is a world-famous top celebrity. In Asia, his popularity is even more popular than Jordan and Ronaldo.
Therefore, as long as the Thai media re-explains this person's new identity, there is no need to create a new name from scratch for the masses to remember, and the rhythm and efficiency will naturally be very fast.
Of course, Thai TV stations and studio facilities are not comparable to those in developed countries with media industries. They all have a rustic feel. They are similar to the conditions for filming the MV for "Girl with Braces, How Beautiful".
Therefore, the filming process is really lackluster and difficult to describe in a word.
That night, the Thai people saw a real interview with Gu Kun himself on national television.
On the TV screen, Gu Kun spoke eloquently to the beautiful host: "...I have always guided my investment behavior towards my Southeast Asian neighbors by adhering to the goodwill of avoiding past mistakes and avoiding future mistakes, treating illnesses and saving lives.
I have always believed that the Thai baht was overvalued by 20% to 25% due to the previous binding, which led to your country's export growth rate falling to zero last year and the sluggishness of other exchange rate-sensitive industries.
However, at present, it seems that there is more fierce international hot money, which has set off the momentum of malicious short selling. At this moment, everyone should unite. I will close all the short positions of the Thai baht that have been lifted within the same day. But even if the Thai baht crisis
The past has passed, but we must still remain vigilant.
Based on my analysis of Soros, he is very likely to further attack the currencies of other neighboring countries with insufficient size. Because of the crisis in Thailand, the international community has overall lack of confidence in the Southeast Asian model, and it has also allowed hesitant hot money to see fishing in troubled waters.
opportunity.
I also hope that the Oceania government can face up to these problems, strengthen supervision, and not create international chaos. At the same time, I also hope that Mr. Soros will not waste time and step back from the brink..."
Some of the wording at the end is more subtle, but in short, you must remain polite on the surface, with the attitude of a holy mother who encourages others to do good.
But in fact, Gu Kun knew that Soros would definitely not listen to the advice.
Gu Kun also did not mention specific countries that he should be wary of Soros attacking - later, his explanation for this was that "he did not want to cause panic in advance to avoid suspicion, causing the people of the countries who may be sniped before Soros arrives."
Self-disruption."
This is actually easy to understand. For example, if Gu Kun choked Soros on a TV show and asked him to "don't do anything to the Malay ringgit." Then as long as Soros doesn't express his position, even if he hasn't taken action yet, maybe the Malays themselves will
My confidence will be shaken and I will go to Maybank to exchange my ringgit for US dollars.
Therefore, this kind of reminder cannot be made too clear at the beginning. When others review it later, they can definitely see Gu Kun's "good intentions" and know that Gu Kun is really working for everyone's common interests.
In contrast, Soros has always been "making a fortune quietly", because this kind of person eats people without spitting out their bones. All he wants is money. Who would go out of his way to gain notoriety?
Therefore, as of early November 1997, only the upper class knew Soros' detailed resume. With the illiteracy rate in a country like Thailand, most of the people who eat melons have never even heard of the name Soros, nor do they know who he is.
harmed them.
After Gu Kun publicly clarified the contradiction on Thai national television, Soros at least can no longer continue to quietly only make money without causing hatred.
…
Because of the time difference, Soros on Wall Street on the other side of the ocean only noticed the fluctuations in the market on November 5, and learned that a guy named Gu Kun had made the problem public and shouted to the public media in Southeast Asian countries.
Early that morning, his female assistant hurried into his office with an urgent letter and reported:
"Boss, today there is a short closing order equivalent to a principal of 600 million U.S. dollars. The leverage has been increased by at least five times, and the funds leveraged are more than 3 billion U.S. dollars. The current cumulative decline of the Thai baht has closed from 57%.
It has narrowed back to 54%.
This is because the other party temporarily stopped shipping and did not sell all the chips. Because at that time, he had swept away all the demand for new short positions in the market, and the remaining ammunition was to prepare for us to have someone else take over the order before he would level."
Gu Kun's initial investment was only US$400 million. However, after this wave of operations, Gu Kun's nominal own funds on his books have now increased to US$1.1 to 1.2 billion. With 5 times leverage, Gu Kun's actual
It can leverage 5.5 to 6 billion US dollars of hot capital.
At a critical juncture when Soros is frantically suppressing his position, this small amount of money can indeed influence the situation.
"What? Why doesn't this guy continue to make money quietly? Is his prediction of the bottom of the market wrong?"
Until this moment, Soros was still imagining that Gu Kun's vision was just not accurate enough.
After all, there were many people who quit after making a small profit in the past. Mr. Li Xiaozheng in Xiangjiang, and even Kong Shangzhong who only made 25%, are typical examples of lack of courage and judgment problems.
Soros felt that Gu Kun had no grievances against him, and he would not be in trouble with money. How could he have thought that Gu Kun was deliberately going against him.
This can only be blamed on Soros’s lack of understanding of Gu Kun.
Originally, Soros had of course heard the name Gu Kun. After all, Gu Kun was a world-class celebrity. However, he thought that Gu Kun was a Jordan-level world superstar, and he also had the status of "Emperor of Lan Fang Tu".
That's all.
It was not until September that Soros learned about Gu Kun's position size due to market analysis and realized that Gu Kun could be regarded as a potential competitor in the investment circle.
So at this moment, his first reaction is still to discuss business.
"If Gu Kun really misjudges the potential of the subsequent market, what impact will it have on us? Can I continue to pull the Thai baht down?" Soros was thinking quickly.
After just a few glances at the data summary, he made a judgment.
"Damn it! Gu Kun, after he runs away, if we don't run away, although it is possible to lower the price again, it will be difficult to escape and no one will take over!"
After calculating this result, Soros broke into a cold sweat.
It turns out that Gu Kun's early departure could not maximize the total profits of all short-selling speculators, but for Gu Kun personally, it had a certain "profit-for-safety" effect.
Gu Kun's short position has been closed, and if someone wants to continue to be short, then that person will definitely take over.
Given the current weakness of the Thai baht, even if someone takes over and the price goes back up, it is unlikely that short sellers will lose money.
However, it can definitely be done if the funds of the new short sellers are greatly occupied, making it difficult to move in and out quickly for a long period of time.
If Soros continues to hold on, he will be prepared to accept the result: he will absorb all Gu Kun's position closing and bring the Thai baht's decline back from 54% to 56~57%.
However, all his funds may have to be kept in the sea for at least three months, or even half a year. If the position is liquidated, it will not be exploded, but the money will be free.
Another option is to follow Gu Kun. In that case, the price difference earned from the Thai baht will be further narrowed, possibly from 54% to 50%.
But the advantage is that after the money is secured, it can be diverted to other new battlefields in about a month.
"Let's run. The worst thing is that after the Thai baht is sold, ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, and phoebe, find a few more targets to disperse, short-sell a little, and go in and out quickly!" Soros finally made a decision.
He immediately ordered his assistant: "Let our funds find a way to escape. Don't notify other allies and let their money be cut off for us in the sea. Anyway, their leverage ratio is not as high as ours. It doesn't matter if we stay a little longer."
The assistant immediately understood and began to sell his teammates.
In the afternoon of that day, the Thai baht's decline further narrowed from 54% to 52%. In the following week, it further narrowed to 50%.
Gu Kun's goods have all been sold out. He was the first among all the short sellers to succeed. As a result, the price difference he earned was two to three percentage points higher than Soros's.
When Soros ran away, he did not forget to find various forces to spread false news wildly. He obviously ran away but said that he did not run away. He also said that this callback was just a "final counterattack" after the relevant Thai financial departments had accumulated strength for a long time. All kinds of smoke.
Bullets are flying all over the sky.
This kind of clamor really attracted some belated followers, so that they were not in a hurry to close their positions and let Soros go first.
These are all things for later.
…
The scene returns to the day Soros decided to run away.
After making the decision and knowing that his first closing position was safely implemented, Soros was temporarily relieved.
Only then did he have time to pay attention to Gu Kun's other actions - when the female assistant reported to him just now, she mentioned that Gu Kun had shouted to him through Thailand's national television and some other media.
It's just that I was busy deciding whether to run away and how to plan my escape, so I put aside the media response for the time being.
Now that I have some free time, I have to face it.
Upon taking a closer look, Thoros suddenly became furious.
"Asshole! Is this Gu Kun crazy? Is he not out of cowardice at all? He actually dares to publicly say that 'it is immoral to invest in the panic of sheep'? He wants to draw a clear line with us for the purpose of 'value investment platform',
Are you ashamed to be my companion?"
Soros was dumbfounded by the content.
Does the financial market really need morality? Is there any morality at all? This is a scientific place!
Also, isn't it bad to keep silent and make a fortune? Why do you have to talk so much to the media in a high profile?