Chapter 177: You Will Automatically Bleed Out Without My Action
When Liang Jinsong informed Gu Kun of the news, his tone was really eager and awe-inspiring.
He was anxious because he was lucky and afraid, and he was in awe because Gu Kun's determination was so impressive to him.
Unfortunately, Gu Kun's reaction was beyond his expectation.
Gu Kun sounded very calm on the phone: "Nasdaq dropped more than 700 points? Don't be impatient, speak slowly. Buffett once said, I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful - the one with the biggest bubble
At that time, others were very greedy, and I was already afraid. Now that they are afraid, there is no need for me to continue to be so anxious."
"Then you think you should be greedy now?" Liang Jinsong usually has a very high IQ and great experience. However, when encountering such an emergency, his client was so calm. This contrast made him confused for a moment.
"A scholar lives and a like dies, don't stick to words! Who said we have to be greedy now? I just say don't let the wind come to you. Can a big drop in one day lead to a complete collapse of Internet stocks? No, Oceanians will rescue the market.
.
The economy has been growing for so many years. Does Bill not want his deputy to have a good situation when he continues to run for office? No matter how hard he covers the lid, he has to cover it until he urinates frequently and urgently, and it takes a year and a half before he is willing to do so.
Die to death."
This sentence really served as a reassurance, and even Liang Jinsong gained a lot. He thought about it for a while, and agreed sincerely: "Maybe it is really possible, let's wait and see for a while. There is no need to consider it in the short term.
Don’t buy the bottom anymore.”
Before answering the phone, Gu Kun was having dinner with several of his women. After hanging up the phone, he continued to eat and drink as he should, without taking it seriously at all, and his demeanor matched Xie An's.
He broke fewer clog teeth than Xie An.
The subsequent development was just as Gu Kun expected. After the sudden plunge on December 23, Christmas Eve the next day was a Friday, and the U.S. stock market still had to open. It actually stabilized for the time being. Then it survived Christmas.
This weekend, although the market still fell after the market opened again, it was not too drastic, and it was usually mixed with shocks, false news, and re-consolidation. It seemed quite resistant.
For a stock market that had dropped 15% in one fell swoop, it was not easy to temporarily stabilize it like this - at the end of 1999, the Nasdaq was only at 4,000 to 5,000 points, and the total points were not high, so it fell.
700 points is already a 15% drop.
If the US stock market was restructured after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, if the Dow Jones fell by 15%, it would be enough to break the circuit breaker twice.
Obviously, this is the result of the Dayang National Pig Stall authorities desperately trying to cover up the situation, trying every possible means to make a soft landing and stabilize market confidence.
After Gu Kun calmed down, he slightly reviewed the common sense in his mind.
In his previous life, he actually did not have a very deep understanding of the international financial market trends after the Southeast Asian financial crisis. He only knew a rough node.
After all, those financial crises were not closely related to his previous life, and there was no personal pain.
So he only vaguely remembered that the Internet bubble in history should have completely burst after Bill left office, but the first wave of decline occurred in March and April 2000.
It now appears that the bursting of the Internet bubble was brought forward by three months.
This should be due to the fact that a series of funds led by Gu Kun were bearish in advance and fled rationally in advance, causing the capital pool there to reach its peak early.
Some people may find it strange: Gu Kun's investment in Nasdaq seems to be small, and the duration is not long, and he did not stick to it until the end. He only selected some network and telecommunications concept stocks in other global secondary stock markets.
How can funds affect Nasdaq?
But this is actually completely reasonable, because international tourism capital itself is a highly liquid entity. Historically, before Nasdaq reached its highest level, many of the funds that supported Nasdaq in the past were Hong Kong and Korean capital, especially in Hong Kong.
The market and Nanbang Financial Market are those who have gained a vote or defended a vote and then moved to the past.
To give a well-known example, Peter Thiel of Oceania's version of PAYPAL, in his later masterpiece "From 0 to 1", ridiculed the madness of the Southern Bang people at that time:
In March 2000, shortly before PAYPAL went public, a Nanbang venture capital company simply sent a letter of $5 million simply because it read an article by a reporter from the Wall Street Journal saying that PAYPAL's market value should be worth $100 million.
I received a check for 5% of the shares, and I didn’t even fill in the sender’s address to prevent Peter Thiel from refunding the money, which was tantamount to force-feeding.
It can be seen that at the last moment of the peak of the bubble in history, Korean investors who came late were eager to enter the market. They originally wanted to come earlier, but the last stop of the Southeast Asian financial crisis in history was South Korea. In order to defend the
Our country's financial market has been held back for too long, and we can't get away from seeing new growth points outside.
In fact, according to reason, if those Korean investors ran away regardless of the life and death of their country's exchange rate and pursued profits purely in business based on the "money never sleeps" mentality, they would indeed be able to run earlier.
But the Koreans in 1998 were too patriotic. At that time, in order to protect the won's exchange rate, the government called on the people to sell gold jewelry to the government to increase gold reserves. Many people responded, so it was non-market factors other than interests that slowed them down.
pace.
Now, all the money that left the Asian market late has been intercepted by Gu Kun, or some investors, such as "Yingke Digital", whose prices have dropped after Gu Kun's sell-off, are more valuable, so they have come to take over Gu Kun's offer.
Naturally, less money flows to Nasdaq.
Just when Liang Jinsong helped Gu Kun sell goods in the final stage, according to Liang Jinsong's subsequent review of transaction records, it was said that there were billions of dollars in Yingke Digital and other shares, and it was Koreans who took over the deal in a hurry and belatedly aware of it.
of.
After reviewing this point, Gu Kun suddenly thought of the possibility of another butterfly effect.
"Hey, historically I remember that Peter Thiel seemed to be very lucky. He himself also wrote in "From 0 to 1" that his PAYPAL was listed on the Nasdaq in mid-March 2000.
A week before plunging 1,000 points in one day, the Nasdaq IPO was successful at the peak of the bubble.
Therefore, PAYPAL had a very prosperous few years in the cold winter, because it had just raised US$100 million on the eve of the bubble burst, and its cash flow was relatively abundant in the following years. But now it seems that the first collapse of Nasdaq has been advanced by nearly 3 months.
Months later, will PAYPAL still be able to raise money? Will it go bankrupt?"
(Note: PAYPAL, also known as the "US version of Alipay", was historically listed on March 10, 2000. It was valued at US$500 million after financing when it was listed, and 20% of new shares were issued, so it raised US$100 million)
Gu Kun is quite concerned about these butterfly effects.
In fact, there must be many similar examples. Gu Kun only remembers him because he is famous. His book "From 0 to 1" will be read by any entrepreneur in the future. He is the most famous in the venture capital circle.
That handful of world famous books.
Peter Thiel's situation affects not only him and his company, but also represents a whole category of colleagues who are unlucky. Business entrepreneurship is inherently a matter of luck. If you are unlucky, the difference will be a few weeks.
When traveling to the top, even if the entrepreneur himself does well and doesn't make any mistakes, the probability of failure is still very high.
Therefore, people like Sun Wu and Ma Feng understand this simple truth: "The invincible lies in oneself, but the victorious lies in the enemy."
This is the original saying of Sun Tzu's Art of War. Don't lose, and be able to escape unscathed after the fight. This is all a good person can do. Whether you win or not depends on the overall external fortune.
No matter how good I am, I can only do what Ma Feng said, "Make sure I can come back alive when I go to the battlefield this time." "Even if I don't win this attempt, at least the company will not fail and can be sustained. The reserve funds will be multiplied by the burning
The rate can survive a cold winter cycle."
So don't look down on Liu Bei's "Liu Paopao". No matter how good you are, it's normal to fail to win. It may be due to bad luck and the gap in absolute strength is too big. It belongs to the "1% inspiration/opportunity".
But being able to escape unscathed is the real skill, and it belongs to "99% effort". But in the face of success, the 99% effort is far less important than the 1% inspiration/opportunity.
Liu Bei's grandson Ma Feng is the same type of person.
Gu Kun had no other friends in the financial world to rely on, so he didn't bother his two masters. He immediately called Liang Jinsong and asked him to check on something.
"Lao Liang, please help me check out a Silicon Valley company called PAYPAL and an entrepreneur named Peter Thiel. I want to know about their current situation - mainly whether the IPO plan has been frustrated. If there are any similar examples,
You can also help me find out."
Liang Jinsong was really surprised on the phone: "Why do you care about this? You told me not to get involved with Nasdaq at the beginning. However, who asked you to be the client? Let me help you pay attention."
Liang Jinsong was very efficient in his work. He inquired about all the requests he received after Christmas before the New Year's holiday, and then immediately called Gu Kun back:
"Gu Sheng, you are really amazing. These companies happen to be the most difficult group. I saw that they were all on the eve of the PRE-IPO sprint. Now the Nasdaq has dropped 20% in a week, and there is great resistance to IPO.
But that Peter Thiel is very courageous. I did some in-depth research and found out that he seems to be ready to go public in a bear market before the end of January next year. However, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal before the big drop a few days ago.
This company has a lot of room for imagination, a promising business model, and a valuation of US$500 million. But now Peter Thiel is willing to underwrite the company with a market value of only US$200 million in exchange for an urgent push from the brokerage firms.”
Gu Kun couldn't help but feel a little sore after hearing this.
He is a ruthless person. Once he saw that the general trend was not in the right direction, he was willing to cut two-thirds of the company's valuation within a few days in exchange for a quick listing.
This kind of behavior also has a proper name in the U.S. stock market, which seems to be called "bleeding listing."
When a company sees that something is wrong with the general trend and may continue to lose blood for several years, it will rush into the secondary market with a bandage and a Band-Aid to cover the bleeding.
"Eh... isn't this just like Huang Yi in history? I remember that Ding Sanshi's Huang Yi was IPOed in the US stock market in June 2000, three months later than Peter Thiel's PAYPAL, and Nasdaq
The first time the stock price plummeted by 20% occurred at the end of March 2000. Even without my butterfly effect, Ding Sanshi was originally going to "bleed and go public". I don't know how much more blood will be shed now. It's really God's will.