In order to prevent accidents, after Lin Chen determined his target, he made detailed calculations on the next trend of iron ore in January.
In his calculations, the price of iron ore will gradually climb above 790 after a drop. During this period, although there are occasional fluctuations, it will not affect the general trend.
But the current trend is beyond his calculations.
What's going on?
Just in case, Lin Chen calculated again.
The probability of iron ore rising to 795 in January is... 0%!
"how so?"
Lin Chen suddenly stood up from his position.
The probability you calculated has changed?
This has never happened before!
Wait...then the probability that the price of iron ore will reach 750 in January is...
100%!
The probability of reaching 740 is...
100%!
The probability of reaching 720 is...
100%!
Without further calculation, Lin Chen immediately shouted to Tang Xin: "Tang Xin, close the position! Sell all the contracts in our hands!"
Tang Xin did not ask questions, but immediately started to operate.
The price of iron ore has been falling. Although she doesn't know why, she also senses something is wrong.
However, the price of iron ore has fallen too fast this time.
Tang Xin hasn't finished the operation yet, and the price of iron ore has fallen below 750 a ton.
In the end, Tang Xin could only short-sell the contract at a price of 745.
Although this price only fell by 0.6% compared to Lin Chen's cost price, after being magnified by twenty times the leverage, Lin Chen's actual loss had exceeded 12%! That is, more than 10 million.
What was originally a net profit of more than 100 million turned into a loss of more than 10 million in the blink of an eye.
Such a result made Lin Chen surprised and confused.
Why does this happen?
In the past, whether it was on the racecourse, lottery, or gambling on stones, Lin Chen's ability was always unfavorable and he never failed.
Why did something like this happen this time, and the probability he calculated before changed after dozens of minutes?
There must be a ghost in here!
"Tang Xin, what happened just now? Why did the price of iron ore drop so much?"
Tang Xin investigated in front of the computer, raised his head and said, "Lin Chen, someone was short selling just now!"
Short selling?!
In addition to the factor of leverage, there is another big difference between futures trading and stock trading, that is, futures are two-way transactions, and you can buy up or sell down.
As for the sharp decline in iron ore just now, it is because someone is using massive funds to bet on the price of iron ore in the market, causing the market to follow suit.
While Lin Chen and the others were talking, the price of iron ore had dropped to 720.
At this price, if Lin Chen had not withdrawn as soon as possible, he would have basically lost all his 100 million.
How strange...
Lin Chen touched his chin and fell into deep thought.
There is absolutely no problem with his abilities. The problem should be his understanding of his abilities.
In the past, Lin Chen always thought that the success rate he calculated must be an inevitable and unchangeable probability.
But today's incident made him realize that his abilities were also flawed, and the probability he calculated should only be the probability at the node where he used his abilities.
And this probability may change at any time due to external factors as time goes by.
If you want to make an analogy, it's like Lin Chen uses his own ability to buy a rough stone. It should be 100% able to produce a piece of jade, but if disaster strikes from the sky at this time, a war breaks out, and a missile is fired at Lin Chen
If the rough stone comes flying, then the probability he calculated before will naturally change, and the probability of emerald from the rough stone will suddenly become 0%.
This is not because there is something wrong with his ability, but because his ability has its own limitations.
Well, even though I lost 10 million this time, it was a blessing in disguise because it made me realize the limitations of my abilities.
Moreover, reality is indeed not as easy as novels. Things like those written in novels, where you can make tens of billions by knowing futures prices in advance, are indeed impossible to happen in reality.
Thinking of this, Lin Chen patted the somewhat frustrated Tang Xin on the shoulder: "Tang Xin, let's continue."
"Continue? But Lin Chen, you just..."
"It's okay, isn't it just 10 million? Just think of it as spending money to teach you a lesson. As long as we act early next time, we won't lose money."
Tang Xin nodded. If they had reacted quickly and made a move before the iron ore price approached 750, they could actually have made a small profit.
"Lin Chen, I will definitely not make another mistake this time."
Seeing Tang Xin's remorseful expression, Lin Chen smiled. He did not continue to persuade her. Rather than giving weak words, it would be better to make money to help Tang Xin regain her confidence.
So, which futures should he choose next?
Get up wherever you fall. Although he lost more than 10 million just now, Lin Chen doesn't intend to give up.
He examined the futures varieties on the computer screen in front of him, looking for his next target.
But at this moment, something suddenly moved in his heart.
Just now, just when he was about to harvest the fruits, a short position suddenly appeared, causing all his cooked ducks to fly away.
So will this happen again in the future?
If I buy futures next, the probability of being interfered by short selling by others is...
100%!
Is there really someone going short?
What's going on? Is it because someone just wants to go short in the market today, or... am I being targeted?
The probability that the short seller is targeting me is...
100%!
Lin Chen turned his head and said, "Tang Xin, who was the person who shorted iron ore just now? Can you find out?"
Tang Xin shook his head: "Sorry Lin Chen, I'm afraid I need the authority of my leader to check this."
"That's it..."
Lin Chen frowned.
Before entering the futures market, he already knew that as long as he made huge profits in the futures market, he would definitely attract the attention of interested people, just like his experience at the racetrack.
However, unlike the racetrack, there are many ways to hide your identity in the futures market. As long as Lin Chen invests in futures as a company, the risk of being targeted will be much smaller.
Originally, Lin Chen planned to try his hand at the futures market with Tang Xin first, and then consider opening an investment company. However, he did not expect that this was his first attempt and he would encounter such a thing.
Something is wrong, something is really wrong...
It’s just my first time to play futures, how come I’m being targeted?
Could it be that someone is deliberately targeting me?
100%!
Do I know the person targeting me?
100%!
Is it my enemy?!
100%!
After calculating up to this point, Lin Chen had roughly captured the person who was targeting him this time.
Lin Chen didn't have many enemies, and even fewer had the ability to attack him in the futures market.
The probability that the person who attacked me is Wu Hui is...