Chapter 182 [The reason why the boss is angry (31/73)]
In the conference room, no one had spoken for a long time. Lu Ming looked around at everyone and suddenly smiled: "It seems that no one needs it, that's good."
Everyone said nothing because they couldn't accept the words.
After speaking, Lu Ming stood up from his seat, leaned forward, took the bag containing calcium tablets off the conference table, and threw it to the ground.
After a moment of silence, the smile on Lu Ming's face suddenly disappeared, and he gradually raised his voice: "Everyone! Let me tell you, what you are doing is to hand over the PE pricing power of the domestic capital market to Wall Street? Wall Street?
Analysts point at a target and say its PE is 50, 80, or 100. Whose market is Big A?"
"At least half of the institutions in the country, or even more, want to buy some calcium supplements to treat rickets. Oh, Wall Street's analysis is authoritative and a wise saying. Do you have no judgment?"
Li Mingyang and others suddenly realized that the boss was angry because of this matter!
When I thought about it carefully, I found that it was really a speechless rebuttal. There were indeed too many institutions in the country, including many people within Tiansheng Capital who paid too much attention to the behavior of foreign investors. Those people who had been fired by the boss were the representatives within the company.
These are industry elites hired by Tiansheng Capital with high salaries. It can be seen how many people in other domestic institutions admire foreign capital. If you think about it carefully, it is indeed very easy for foreign capital to lead the way.
of passivity.
"I don't care about other institutions, but Tiansheng Capital's reference weight for funds going north cannot exceed 20%. Instead, we conduct our own research." Lu Ming directly set the latest tone for the people in the investment research department.
After five minutes, the meeting entered the second agenda.
At the meeting, Lu Ming said again: "Have you realized that the domestic stock market has moved a bit too fast in the new year? Although there was an adjustment last Friday, this adjustment has changed from the current level.
Judging from the upward trend of the index, it is still a bit fast.”
A manager from the investment research department who attended the meeting said: "The big rise after the year is inseparable from the continued net inflow of foreign capital. Even with last Friday's adjustment, foreign capital still kept buying and buying. According to the data, funds going northward have continued for one month.
Maintaining net buying every month, Mr. Lu is right. A group of our domestic institutions are indeed led by foreign capital and need to add some calcium."
Lu Ming immediately said: "Can this rapid rise continue? The answer is definitely not, why? Let's take the current main board price of about 3,200 points as an example. If we want to reach 5,000 points, there is still 1,800 points of room for growth. This
For a period of time, it has maintained a rise of 20 points every day. We assume that the market outlook is calculated based on the average value of 15 points every day. It only takes 120 days, almost three or four months, to complete the entire market. Is such a fast bull market possible?
?”
Everyone couldn't help but shake their heads.
This is obviously absolutely impossible!
Lu Ming looked around the crowd and said: "So it is impossible for such a fast bull market to occur, especially since the lessons of the stock market crash the year before last are still vivid in my mind, so my prediction is that the management must intervene next. Intervention is inevitable. Every round of bull market
There have been two or three interventions, and now foreign capital is deliberately setting the pace to guide the capital market to get hotter and faster. Yesterday’s adjustment, but foreign capital did not withdraw but continued to maintain a trend of crazy inflows.”
While everyone was thoughtful, Lu Ming also said at the meeting in an orderly manner: "Japan signed the Plaza Agreement in the 1990s. Before that, Japan's economy rose rapidly, and Japan's low-priced goods were sold far away.
In North America, is this almost the same as our current situation? But the United States came up with the Plaza Accord to force the yen to appreciate."
"This has resulted in Japanese people becoming rich, so they are allocating assets crazily, including overseas assets, buying US stocks, North American real estate, etc. But what about domestically? After the yen appreciates, exports will definitely be affected, and Japan's exports will definitely be affected.
The authorities are thinking of lowering interest rates internally. What will the people do when they see that there is no profit from depositing their money in the bank?"
Li Mingyang couldn't help but said: "From a historical perspective, the Japanese people rushed into the stock market, the property market, and the foreign currency have appreciated again. They also bought and bought abroad. Back then, the Japanese claimed to buy the country of Magnesium!"
Lu Ming looked around the crowd and said: "So the result is that Japan's property market and stock market have both pushed to record highs. Look at the current Nikkei 225 Index. To this day, it has not regained its historical high. It has been 25 years.
Well, even if we give them another five years, they won’t be able to recover it.”
The high point of the Nikkei 225 Index in the 1990s was 38,957 points. As of today, it is 19,251 points. It has been cut in half after 25 years. If we want to regain this historical high, the Nikkei 225 Index will have to rise by 102%.
It's about twice as long as it is before you can go up. It's too difficult!
Lu Ming continued: "So we have to take warning from the pain and cost of Japan that year. The U.S. dollar index has begun to depreciate and has begun to reverse the trend. Referring to the appreciation of the yen that year, our RMB has correspondingly continued to rise.
It will inevitably face rapid appreciation in the coming year, which is similar to the Japanese yen back then."
The RMB will definitely appreciate in the future, which is one of the reasons why Lu Ming is willing to put a large amount of offshore funds in the offshore RMB pool.
After the failure of the second round of foreign exchange war at the end of last year, international financial speculative capital quickly made a conclusion, revised its response strategy, and began to choose to lurk in Big A.
Don’t you want to protect 7? Then I will help you and promote the rapid appreciation of the RMB.
Just like Japan back then, it promoted the stock market and the housing market soared.
This is a new plan that the opponent quickly adjusted and formulated after the tragic defeat. It is indeed a strong opponent, fast and efficient.
Lu Ming continued: "...if the RMB appreciates rapidly, what should we do with overseas funds? There is no doubt that they will lurk crazily into the stock market. If the property market is not restricted, it also includes the property market. The data will not deceive. Foreign capital will enter the stock market after this year."
The pace is constantly accelerating, so now our market is actually showing signs of being guided by foreign capital, and a large group of institutions, including many retail investors, only rely on funds to go north."
"Then think about it, will the management allow this kind of thing to continue? Impossible. Kuai Niu is not allowed to appear in China, and now that foreign investors want to guide the capital market, they will not allow radical Kuai Niu.
Especially the lessons learned from Japan and the stock market crash the year before last, Slow Bull is now the basic strategy after the stock market crash. The leveraged bull market the year before last caused the wealth of the domestic middle class who had entered the capital market for more than ten or twenty years to evaporate overnight.
This kind of tragedy cannot be allowed to happen again or be repeated."
"We must have a clear understanding of the big picture, that is, Big A is the most subjective market among the major capital markets in the world. Once problems arise, they will never tell you anything. Free market principles, no interference, etc.
When it is impossible, we will definitely intervene. It’s just a question of strong intervention and weak intervention.”
Having said this, Lu Ming called up the full chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index over the years on the main screen in the conference room, and then said:
"With these historical data, in the process of previous bull market trends, we can see that in every super market, we can clearly see traces of intervention reflected in the K-line pattern in some shock and consolidation positions. 6124 appeared 4 times and 5178 appeared.
The bull market in the 1990s can be said to have twelve gold medals to force the stock market to skyrocket. The bull market of 6124 caused the stock market to skyrocket almost from beginning to end. It raised interest rates seven or eight times...
"
Everyone understands what Lu Ming wants to express. The domestic capital market will usher in new adjustments in the coming period. If foreign investors try to guide the capital market to heat up rapidly, the management will definitely crack down.
In other words, the future structure of Big A will definitely operate under the eyes of regulators, and will never deviate from expectations and will never be allowed to deviate from expectations.
The fund managers attending the meeting, including the fund managers of Tiansheng's flexible allocation of several major closed funds, should pay special attention to the news from the management at this time, and should appropriately reduce their positions to avoid risks when expectations arise.
