In the following time, Lu Ming returned to the main topic. He sat comfortably in his seat, looked at the crowd in a relaxed tone and said: "... When talking about the financial issues just mentioned, we have to extend them from abroad.
You can think about the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, including the UK at that time in about 2002-3, when the growth of the labor value part, that is, the real part, in the UK had ended."
"What will follow? The British property market is booming, and debt and leverage are beginning to increase. If you are a British worker and you are finished at that time, it will mean that in the next twenty years you will most likely be
There will be no obvious income growth. However, if you start leveraging and adding debt to buy a house at that time, OK, you will change your life and destiny from now on. As leverage and debt take off, the City of London will recover again."
As Lu Ming spoke, he tapped the laptop on the table in front of him. The conference screen behind him also jumped to the next screen. Everyone listened silently without saying a word and looked at the data on the screen.
Thinking.
And Lu Ming continued: "We who are engaged in finance, to put it crudely, are chasing money, and to be more sophisticated, we are chasing leverage and liabilities. Wherever there are liabilities and leverages, we just go to that place, and vice versa.
Leverage and debt removal are telling you that you have to leave and cannot stay for long. So the question is, where are the current leverage and debt?"
After a moment, a young man attending the meeting thought for a moment and boldly replied: "Domestic?"
Lu Ming smiled and nodded: "Yes, in China, so if you observe it, you will find out why there are more and more so-called financial returnees in recent years, because in London, most of the locals on Wall Street are working there
It's so miserable, how can they be foreigners? They have no choice but to come back!"
As he spoke, Lu Ming looked at the ceiling in the conference room and recalled: "I remember once having a brief chat with Lao Wang in private, Mr. Wang Yue. Lao Wang asked me why I didn't invest overseas on a large scale? Why not in Europe and the United States?
Increase investment? The struggle between countries is part of the reason but it is only superficial."
"And the deeper logic is... In fact, the answer is very simple, that is, from now until the future, the best investment place in the world is in China. Leverage and debt have migrated from the West to the East, from London to New York City.
When we arrived at the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the process in Britain and the United States at that time was actually quite simple. It was that residents’ debts rose sharply. A large number of residents’ debts increased. As a result, Wall Street made a lot of money, and the City of London made a lot of money.
Well."
The young people present thought carefully that this was indeed the case, and they felt the same way. The current situation in China is similar. The "six wallets" concept is essentially the result of people increasing leverage and debt.
It's just that they are now following Brother Yi, so they are full of hope for the future, but more people are gradually despairing.
The so-called middle-class families with a scale of hundreds of millions, look at the liabilities of 4 million behind the assets of 3 million. They say they are worth millions, but they are only real estate assets, not liquid cash. It really costs these so-called middle-class families tens of thousands of dollars.
Being out for a short while is enough, and I don’t dare to spend money frivolously.
Lu Ming continued: "This way you will know why the inflow of foreign capital continues to increase and cannot be stopped. I can say this, foreign capital will not dare to bearish on our country's economy in the next thirty-five years. Don't be fooled by it now."
I was confused by the illusion of a bear market. In fact, I am very sad. A large number of core assets are being frantically bought by foreign investors. Even if I want to, I can't take it, and I can't, because I know that it will definitely fall further. Taking it now is just emotional.
Irrational behavior.”
With that said, Lu Ming hit the space bar on his laptop again, and everyone looked at the conference projection screen. A slide that jumped showed the data on the inflow of foreign capital.
Lu Ming stared at the screen of his laptop and said: "Just looking at the inflows into the stock market through the well-known Mainland Stock Connect, there were only 7 trading days in the entire second quarter of this year where foreign capital was net outflows, and all other trading days were net inflows.
Moreover, there is a crazy net inflow. On April 18, there was a net inflow of more than 7 billion. On April 19, there was a net inflow of more than 5 billion. On this day, there was also a net inflow of more than 5 billion. On this day, there was a net inflow of more than 6 billion. Net outflows in the second quarter.
In the seven trading days, the largest single-day net outflow was only over 3 billion, and even more funds came in through other gray channels."
Lu Ming's eyes moved to the crowd: "Are these foreign capital inflows good people? They are here to make profits. Why do they dare to keep buying the bottom? Because the financiers on Wall Street have seen the essence of the problem, which is our people.
Debt and leverage are soaring year by year. What did I say before? Wherever leverage and debt go, capital will follow."
"If I were a player on Wall Street, I would not panic, because I know that as long as the time period is extended, the position I am trapped in now will be the buying point in the future. I will definitely make money in the future, but it is just a floating loss now. There are many people in the company
I am very excited because we buried foreign capital alive at 3587 points, which is regarded as a major victory. What is there to show off? We just killed a group of speculative capital, and what about those long-term holders?"
"That pension fund in Norway, how do you kill someone who does left-hand trading? He continued to buy Tiansheng Holdings for 30,000 yuan, and Wuliangye for more than 80 yuan. He didn't sell it, he just bought it, but domestic
Investors are constantly selling these high-quality core assets..."
"On earth, from now until the next thirty years, the relatively best and healthiest economy in the world is our country. What are you doing in vain? Isn't this Shabi? The core assets have value here.
Yes, to say the least, this is called defense, and this is called an invincible position, you know? A good defender is hidden under the nine places. At this time, I bet that he can't go down. If he goes down, he will go long. What are you short of?"
"This is not a question of belief, nor a question of political stance, but an objective question. Why should you empty this place? What reason do you have to empty it? You can empty it if you want it? I can only empty it.
Quote what Mr. Feite said: No one will make a fortune by shorting his own country. The big short Soros also made a fortune by shorting other countries. Even the famous hedge funds on Wall Street are bulls at heart.
"
Lu Ming actually doesn't care too much about how much money foreign investors can make in Big A, because he knows that in the end he can't stop foreign investors from making money. What he really cares about is the battle for pricing power. You can make money with foreign investors, just like medium and long-term investors.
Side trading is actually welcome.
What cannot be tolerated is the large inflows and outflows of foreign capital that control pricing power, causing steep rises and falls in a short period of time to repeatedly cut leeks. Big A has so many leeks that they cannot be cut off, and they grow again when the spring breeze blows.
The mission of Tiansheng Capital is to keep as many core assets and wealth in the country as possible, keeping them in the country and in the hands of the Chinese people, rather than being taken away by foreigners and lost on a large scale overseas.
We now have trillions of liquidity in our hands just to compete with foreign investors for floor-price bargaining chips for core assets in the second half of this year.
Lu Ming took a sip of water and looked at the crowd and said: "Why can't you go in empty-handed? Now that I have finished talking about the three logics, the first is the real estate market. The real estate market has been super hot in the past two years, but it cannot stay hot forever. A house has changed hands for the first time.
At that time, it is equivalent to five young people discounting their future cash flow and giving it back to you. You use the money to eat, drink and have fun, and the person who takes over the deal also wants to imitate you, so if the house doubles again, it will cost ten
A young man discounts his future cash flows back."
Speaking of this, Lu Ming shook his head and spread his hands: "Can you keep playing this way? How many rounds can you play this exponential growth game? Anyone with normal thinking knows that it can't be played anymore. The longer you go, the more you have to use bigger and bigger games.
Is it enough for young people to discount at multiples? What will happen when no one takes over? That is, what will happen when debt and leverage are unsustainable? Of course, it will be a debt collapse."
"But we have controls. A collapse is unlikely, but it is also unlikely to continue to rise. So when the crazy investment in the property market ends after two years, the domestic fund industry will enter a stage of rapid development. I estimate that the time point is
Around 2O2O, this is actually similar to the 1980s in the United States. The return on investment in the real estate market has dropped, which will inevitably lead to a large transfer of funds. The only way to move out of the real estate market is into the stock market, because there are really not many people who are willing to take the initiative to enter the real world. That thing is not good.
make money."
Lu Ming continued methodically: "Second, our country's economic development model is changing. Transformation and upgrading are the only way to go. We must maintain a growth of 6% every year. If the property market does not rise, where will this 6% growth come from? Of course it is not the stock market, but
It is an entity, and the entity lies in high-end manufacturing, high technology and high added value. The industry is upgrading. In the next ten years, our country's economy will shift from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. Profits will shift to industry leaders, and the equity of industry leading companies is scarce.
, then the core assets will definitely be reflected in the capital market, and asset prices will definitely reflect the rising pattern. Then you will see that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index may still be trading at more than 3,000 points, but the industry index, leading companies, and core assets will skyrocket to new highs.
, so what’s your reason for being short in the A-share market?”
"Finally, the third factor is the massive inflow of foreign capital. Since foreign capital is buying the bottom of core assets, why not close the mainland stock connect? Why should we just watch them buy the bottom? That's because the big A can't always keep the territory for themselves. Internationalization is It is an inevitable trend. As the second largest economy in the world, it is only a matter of time before my country becomes the world's number one in the future. Furthermore, A-shares have been included in the three major international index systems, and the channels for foreign capital to flow in and out of A-shares have basically been opened up. The allocation demand for A-shares will increase significantly in the future, so again, why would you be short in such a market? Isn’t that a disease?"
