"Frankly speaking, as a member of financial capital, we have to do things that go against the nature of capital. This road is destined to be an extraordinary road full of difficulties and obstacles." Lu Mingqiu sat in his seat at the meeting and spoke with his voice.
He said with a faint smile: "When capital not only does not do evil but also requires conscience, it is actually a very painful and lonely thing."
Everyone also fell into deep thought.
This is indeed a painful and difficult undertaking.
On the one hand, ordinary people here cannot understand or even believe it. They will think you are crocodile tears because your identity is capital;
On the other hand, other capitals will draw a clear line with you and even wish that you, the "traitor", would evaporate from the earth immediately, because if Tiansheng Capital has a conscience, it means allocating more resources to the poor. Where will the growth points come from?
?
There is no doubt that it is to kill the rich and give to the poor. Instead of cutting off the small businesses, it is to cut off the wealthy and large households. Isn't it to cut off the leeks of other capital institutions' rivals to kill the rich and give to the poor?
Take Tiansheng Value Growth Mixed, a public equity fund, as an example. The main force in the hundreds of billions of ultra-large stocks is actually ordinary people. According to "normal" circumstances, 80% of them should be ultra-rich large households.
Funds, but actually tens of millions of citizens.
It may not be understood by the public here, and it may not be favored by capital there, so it is lonely.
However, Lu Ming is not a stubborn person, and he knows the essence of the golden mean of winning over a group of people. Therefore, among the LP members are private institutions such as Chaoyun Trust and Wanxiang Group, as well as those from invisible rich people such as Qiao Jingping.
Please entrust funds.
Through this method, Tiansheng Capital has risen, and now it has grown into a behemoth and has established a firm foothold. It can be said that it has passed the most dangerous stage of being strangled in the cradle.
The main reason is that the growth rate is too fast, and the opponent simply gets up before they can react. When they react, they find that Tiansheng Capital is now a super behemoth. Nowadays, it is not that anyone dares to come up and offend easily.
There is no doubt that the best way to kill the rich and help the poor is to harvest overseas wealthy people. This can also relatively ease the relationship with domestic capital, transfer the conflict to foreign capital, and then allow itself to gain a greater home field advantage.
Because the best investment market in the world now is Greater China. In the future, as the internationalization of Big A advances, more foreign capital will pour in. At this time, uniting more domestic capital will undoubtedly expand the home field advantage, and it is
A good thing that kills two birds with one stone.
Lu Ming is not worried at all about his relationship with other mainland capital. No matter how bad it is, it can be as good as possible. In the world of capital, friends and enemies are temporary, and only interests are eternal. Now he has joined forces with Goldman Sachs
Have fun rowing, let alone the capital of the mainland?
After the interlude, Lu Ming continued to return to the previous topic to deconstruct: "...the so-called peak period of the asset bubble is the maximum deviation between debt leverage and income. That is, his income is no longer enough to cover his debt. At this time,
A small model can be derived where debt can be equal to your income as a function of time t."
Lu Ming turned over a slide, glanced at the projection screen, then turned to look at everyone present and said: "Actually, it's the same as our stocks. For example, what is the simplest stock pricing? Isn't it just to price the future?
The discount of cash flow comes back. Correspondingly, the discount of life is actually the same principle. For example, if I give you more and more debts, it means that I will discount more and more time in your future."
"First discount you for twenty years, and you give me your youth. Well, I find that housing prices are still rising, and asset prices are still rising, but I find that your income is not growing much, so it is clear that the total amount is
Increase, if your single income does not increase, you can only increase the 'time function' it is multiplied by."
"So from twenty years to forty years, eighty years is not enough. After eighty years, I found out that it is possible for you, a young man, to work until you are eighty years old and can no longer work. Even if it is not enough, how can you still owe me a debt?"
What to do? Your son will pay back, your grandson will pay back, but if you don’t have children or grandchildren, then it’s over. The result of unsustainable debt is debt collapse.”
Lu Ming continued: "... Of course, some people say that the final problem with debt is the population problem. This sentence is correct. This is the situation that exists in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea. In the final analysis, when all debts collapse, it will create a world without
It’s just the result of people taking over. Without the population and the time function of the population to bear, it’s very simple. If the debt is unsustainable, asset prices will remain depressed for a long time, so the key lies in structural issues.”
At this time, a young man present couldn't help but ask: "What are the structural problems?"
Lu Ming said without hesitation: "Wealth and poverty, income, population, debt sustainability, it's that simple. Of course, this is a big topic on a macro scale. Every problem is not a simple problem, and it can be deconstructed in ten and a half days."
Month. In fact, it also applies to the micro level, such as a stock. If you imagine the stock price as a society, it involves value creation, value expansion, and value distribution."
"You will find that when you put this set of things below, it will generate a stock price, which corresponds to our macroeconomic growth. An increase in stock price means economic growth and efficiency improvement. As long as your company continues to make profits, technological progress, production progress, and dividends,
It’s the same as economic growth.”
At this time, Lu Ming pressed the keyboard of his work computer and turned the page on the screen. The daily K-line chart of Tiansheng Holdings was displayed. On it, the previous stable upward trend channel with a 50-degree angle was marked. In addition,
What is marked is the main part of the surge in stock prices this year.
Lu Ming looked at the K-line chart on the projection screen and said: "...it should have a slope. For example, our Tiansheng Holdings almost rises at a slope of 55 degrees. The rise and fall in the middle are ignored. On the whole, it is rising.
rise, and then look at the sharp rise and fall during the period. Then you will find that the two influencing variables of stock prices are actually the same, profit dividends and speculative fluctuations, don’t they correspond to revenue growth and debt leverage?”
Lu Ming turned around and looked at the people present: "Many people are talking about value investing, talking about whether your company can create returns for me, and what they are talking about is the slope. Doesn't it correspond to the upward channel trend of Tiansheng Holdings?
But speculation is also a kind of value, and it’s just a question of how to use it based on this value.”
The sharp rise and fall of Tiansheng Holdings' main stocks are speculative short-term violent fluctuations. Its value lies in starting the market, trapping foreign investment, and ending the market, etc. This is of course also a kind of value.
Lu Ming continued: "To put it bluntly, it is just a value plus a speculative part of the fluctuation. The 'value' of Tiansheng Holdings is the slope of the upward trend. The surge is the fluctuation of 'speculation'. It will continue to move along the slope when it falls back."
, because the company is still creating value. Therefore, the relationship between the income growth brought about by division of labor and debt leverage is simple to understand in stocks. When your debt leverage increases, the stock price has deviated significantly.
When your long-term growth income is exceeded, it is overvalued and it is a bubble."
"Why didn't the Norwegian Wealth Sovereign Fund buy Tiansheng when its stock price was 30,000 yuan? Some time ago, it started to increase its holdings when it fell to 30,000 yuan? The reason is that the 30,000 yuan in the first quarter was overvalued at the time, and now it is
The valuation is reasonable, it means using time to exchange for space, and the funds for bargain hunting have recently fallen near this slope and have increased significantly."
It is worth mentioning that the Norwegian Wealth Sovereign Fund did not increase its holdings when it recently fell to around 26,000 yuan. It is not that they do not want to increase their holdings, mainly because they have completed the phased position building plan.
For these medium and long-term institutional investors who trade on the left, their logic is that as long as they believe that the valuation has reached what they think is a reasonable value range at the corresponding time node, they will increase their holdings and buy, and they will be done with it.
, and will not care about short-term fluctuations.
