Chapter 496 [The eve of the U.S. stock market crash]
Time has come to the end of September, today is Thursday, September 27th.
In terms of domestic hot news, news related to houses still maintains a high level of popularity, but then again, this hot spot will always be a hot spot. After all, houses are the focus of people's livelihood, and discussing houses has never been an issue at the moment.
hour.
However, Lu Ming has transferred his energy to Tiansheng Capital. The foundation is advancing in an orderly manner according to plan, so it will be enough to keep abreast of the progress.
I came to the company this morning and held a meeting with the managers of the investment research and analysis department. Qi Wei, Li Mingyang, Ge Feng and several important fund managers were also present at the meeting.
"The news came from across the ocean yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise interest rates: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled, and the interest rate path has not changed." Qiwei took the lead in saying at the meeting.
As soon as yesterday's news came out, the country's expectations of raising interest rates finally came to fruition.
Qiwei added: "The U.S. market fell back yesterday, but it did not plummet. The Dow and S&P 500 have stabilized, and the Nasdaq has fallen a bit this month."
Lu Ming, who was sitting at the head of the meeting, said in a deep voice: "We are not optimistic. The U.S. bond yield is expanding its upward trend. At the end of last month, the yield was still hovering around 2.9. In October, it is a high probability that the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States will rise above 3.2."
, at the same time, the inversion of U.S. bond yields is a very bad thing.”
The 10-year Treasury bond yield in the United States is an anchor for capital prices in the North American market and even the global market. An increase in yields often heralds an increase in market capital prices, which in turn has a significant impact on the stock market. Tiansheng Capital now has a considerable amount of diving funds.
In the U.S. stock market, naturally we are very concerned about all aspects of the situation in the United States.
The so-called yield inversion means that the yield on short-term government bonds is equal to or even exceeds the yield on long-term government bonds.
Under normal circumstances, the yield on short-term government bonds is generally lower than that on long-term bonds, and vice versa is abnormal. Abnormalities often lead to trouble.
The reason is actually very simple. It is the same borrower A, and the same amount is 100 yuan. The term of the loan to B is a short-term one year, and the rate of return is, for example, 2.8%. However, the term of the loan to C is 10 years, and the rate of return is still 2.8%.
, even lower than 2.8%. Under normal circumstances, it is impossible for A to lend money to C.
Because the 10-year term is too long, A has to bear a significantly greater risk to C than B, and is willing to lend to C only if the rate of return is higher than 2.8%.
Qi Wei looked at the crowd and said: "I think the reason for the inversion is the market's expectations for the North American economy. Short-term yields are a response to monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, short-term Treasury yields will be higher than long-term yields.
, and long-term yields are a response to economic expectations. The logic is not difficult to understand, because U.S. bonds are considered the safest assets. When the economy is not good, U.S. bonds will become safe-haven assets. As a result, prices will rise and yields will decrease.
On the contrary, when the economy is expected to improve, prices fall and yields rise."
Another investment research analyst who participated in the meeting said: "As we all know, a large part of the reason for the current round of US stock market rise comes from tax cuts and the economic improvement brought by big funds. The unemployment rate in North America in August was 3.9%, almost the lowest in history.
, the economic growth in the second quarter was 4.2%, which was 4 points higher than expected.”
Lu Ming immediately said: "The current time point is very sensitive. The results of the mid-term elections in the United States are about to be announced. I estimate that Trump will lose. Then the tax cuts and large-scale infrastructure projects he vigorously promotes will be greatly reduced, which will cause the US stock market to lose value."
Another important support is that the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future. Let’s put aside whether to raise interest rates in the future, but the market is worried about raising interest rates. The stock market will definitely react in advance, regardless of whether it is an overreaction.
There must be a reaction. In addition, the issue of stock buybacks by listed companies in Magnesium will also have a huge impact on the market."
The repurchase operation of listed companies is also an important supporting logic that promotes the bull market of U.S. stocks. The net assets before and after the repurchase remain unchanged, but the circulating shares decrease and the minimum assets per share increase. In theory, the value of the stock will increase, which is reflected in the rise in the stock price.
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Qi Wei, who was present at the meeting, said immediately after hearing this: "According to our data, US listed companies conducted approximately US$680 billion in share repurchases in the first half of this year, exceeding the record of US$530 billion in 2017."
Lu Ming slowly shook his head and said: "This is not the point. The motivation for listed companies to repurchase shares lies in the tax cuts in the United States and the low interest rate market environment. As the third quarter is coming to an end, 86% of the constituent companies in the S&P 500 Index have disclosed
By suspending stock repurchases before October 5, the repurchase sector will be eliminated. The huge amount of repurchases in U.S. stocks this year may reach its peak, which is a big negative for U.S. stocks."
Obviously, everyone present at the meeting also heard it. Lu Ming's speeches before and after the meeting all showed that his attitude towards the market outlook was bearish, at least in the short term. He was unabashedly bearish, especially in the US stock market.
Li Mingyang immediately looked at Lu Ming and said: "U.S. stocks are currently running at a high level, while domestic A-shares are at a low level. If the U.S. stock market falls sharply, it will definitely have an impact on A-shares. What suggestions does the chairman have?"
Several other fund managers attending the meeting also looked at Big BOSS.
Lu Ming said without hesitation: "You have already said that our Big A is at a low position and has always followed the decline, so what else can we say? We can pick up as many chips as we can with floor-price chips."
Li Mingyang and several other fund managers attending the meeting immediately nodded to express their understanding.
Lu Ming added: "The room for periodic decline of U.S. stocks is greater than that of A shares. This is for sure. Big A has not risen this year, so the decline should not be large. As for U.S. stocks... the future market direction depends to a large extent.
No one can accurately predict what will happen as a result of the mid-term elections. For ordinary investors, it is a good thing to wait and see under such uncertain circumstances, but for us, it is a reminder
It’s time to place your bets.”
The focus of today's meeting is to discuss the downside risks of U.S. stocks, which will determine Tiansheng Capital's adjustments in the future.
At the meeting, it was finally determined that the next market would be bearish, so there would be a clear direction for how to operate.
Qi Wei, who is in charge of the external market, also received the latest instructions from Lu Ming. In the following fourth quarter, Tiansheng Capital mainly shorted U.S. stocks, including shorting the S&P 500 Index. The crude oil market layout also closed its long positions and started trading.
Empty order.
Lu Ming actually knows very well how the market will go in the fourth quarter of this year, but he still needs to go through a process and analyze the current environment with his subordinates before making a decision. If his subordinates directly say that he will be free after October
, it would give people the impression that they really have the ability to predict the future, which is not good.
In the last quarter of this year, the U.S. stock market crashed and plummeted, causing the global stock market to cry out. Countless people lost money and lost their pants.
But no matter whether it is rising or falling, as long as you can predict the direction of the market in advance, you can make a lot of money. It is just a matter of going short when it falls and opening long when it rises.
After the meeting, Lu Ming returned to his office, sat for a while and opened the market software to take a look at the recent trend of Big A.
In the past week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index performed pretty well, and its rebound was not bad. It rebounded from a low of around 2,650 to 2,800 points yesterday.
However, in the A-share market, which is dominated by retail investors, a large number of retail investors have not yet realized that in the coming October, the limit of 1,000 shares will fall again.
Lu Ming stared at the market and covered his mouth in silence. He was thinking about whether to ask his investment research department to issue an analysis report to give a risk warning to the market. To be precise, he was judging whether to issue a bearish research report.
Issuing a bearish report at this time should be beneficial in the later stage. Lu Ming does not think that the market will go the other way when Tiansheng Capital issues a bearish report. This decline in the US stock market cannot be reversed by one or two institutions.
If there is a risk warning at this time, there will be two inevitable consequences and a third possible consequence for Tiansheng Capital.
The first is to accurately predict the market plunge before the market plummets, further consolidating the company's authority in the capital market, which is ultimately reflected in pricing power; the second is that Tiansheng Capital's bearishness will further drive the market to accelerate the plunge, thereby causing
The company gets more chips, which is a real benefit; and the third possible consequence is that if some of the big A retail investors believe it, they will go ashore and hold the currency to wait and see at this time, and they will not be hammered.
Finally, Lu Ming finished his thinking and made a decision in his mind. This bearish report should be released, and it was necessary to release it.
As soon as I thought of it, I did it without hesitation, so I made a call to the investment research and analysis department.
