The company's investment research department received a call from Dabo SS and issued a work instruction, which was to prepare a comprehensive analysis report on the short market outlook and send it to the President's Office for approval.
However, this analysis report will not be available immediately. It will take a few days. Lu Ming gave three days.
Now as time enters October, the country has also ushered in the one-week National Day holiday. At the same time, the A-share market has also been closed for a week, and the market will not open after the holiday until Monday, October 8.
Entering October, there is another important thing for Tiansheng Capital, which is the company's relocation to the new headquarters in the new financial center. Relocation is always a difficult and troublesome matter, but it must be moved.
According to the original plan, the company's relocation will officially take place on October 5th and will be carried out in an orderly manner. It used to take about three to five months for a complete relocation.
The current location of Tiansheng Capital's headquarters will have a huge impact on surrounding land prices, and it is not in line with Ningzhou City's current planning.
Therefore, after moving to the new financial center where land is at a premium, the land prices in this area are almost completely determined by the market. Even if the prices are so high, Ningzhou City will not have any intervention.
…
October 1st.
Today is a holiday, and most people in the company are on vacation. Lu Ming did not go to the company, and is currently in the study at home.
A printer in the room was printing a document. After a while, Lu Ming finished printing. He immediately picked up the document and took a look at it. This document was clearly an analysis report prepared by the company's investment research and analysis department according to his instructions, and it was now faxed.
After roughly reading it, Lu Ming immediately made a phone call to the company. Han Qiulin was still working overtime at the company.
"Chairman, what are your orders?"
Lu Ming stared at the research report in his hand and said, "Chen Yuli's analysis report will be published as it is now."
Han Qiulin on the other end of the phone said: "Is it going to be released today?"
Lu Ming nodded: "Yes, today is the day. Let him out as soon as possible."
Posting it later would be an afterthought. Han Qiulin responded: "Okay, I'll deal with it right now."
…
About half an hour later, Tiansheng Capital publicly released a latest analysis and research report. Anyone can download the electronic version and read it, and it is free and open to the public.
It didn’t take long for it to be quoted and reported by major financial media, and spread among the capital circles.
As in the past, Tiansheng Capital rarely conducts commentary and analysis on a single stock, and the latest one was just Jingdong Company.
Today’s research report is a macroeconomic analysis. The researcher’s name is Chen Yuli, who is one of the company’s investment research analysts. This research report does not directly call for shorting Big A, but directly points to the U.S. stock market.
Analyze and deconstruct market issues.
Tiansheng Capital has never published a report that is bearish on the A-share market, and it will not do so this time. But anyone with a little bit of intelligence can understand that if there is a problem with the US stock market and a crash, the global capital market will also catch a bad cold.
It is also difficult for Big A to stay alone.
To put it simply, if the U.S. stock market crashes, Big A will definitely follow suit, which is equivalent to indirectly reminding the market that the A-share market is risky.
…
At the same time, Lao Yang in another city was reading the analysis report just released by Tiansheng Capital.
I saw him staring at the research report content on the screen:
[Recently, global risk events have occurred frequently recently, and the renewed rise in global risk aversion may have an impact on asset prices. The soaring US dollar and capital outflows from emerging markets may cause another 'major' financial crisis, and Meng is facing a dangerous situation for survival.
, North America’s introduction of the nuclear agreement and the establishment of tariff barriers have threatened the transatlantic trade alliance between Europe and the United States, and the conflict has had a negative impact on the European economic belt, especially Germany.]
[Ou Meng is facing three serious problems: the refugee crisis, territorial disintegration caused by Brexit, and austerity policies. These have hindered Europe's economic development, and everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. 】
When he saw this, Lao Yang couldn't help but search for information on the Internet, especially news related to the military sector. Sure enough, he saw an important hot news, that is, the beautiful country's ships came to cause trouble again, that is, in
Days like today are very frustrating, but in the end I was forced to retreat.
After turning off the relevant news, Lao Yang continued to read the research report:
[...Different from other views in the market, we believe that the results of the mid-term elections in North America are uncertain, and the political game behind them is intensifying. Political factors may trigger a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. The North American mid-term elections on November 6 will decide the two
Whether the party can maintain control of Congress, this election is regarded as a key battle for the implementation of the government's policies in the second half of the period. The mid-term elections are full of smoke and market concerns are spreading.]
[The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose rapidly after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, triggering a sharp decline in the overnight market. After the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in September, affected by factors such as strengthening inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly. As the current U.S. stock market is still at its lowest level in history
Above high valuation levels, rising long-term interest rates are expected to trigger turbulent adjustments in the stock market.]
[As U.S. bond yields continue to rise, it may trigger a decline in global risk asset prices. The superimposed panic may even intensify and lead to a global stock and bond sell-off. As of the close of last Friday, the value of global bonds fell to US$489,000, which is
The lowest since October 2017, the bond market lost about $876 billion in a single week, erasing a year of gains.]
[Government risks and rising interest rates will continue to disturb the market. Trade frictions will also have a negative impact on the North American economy. At the same time, there are certain bubble factors in the US stock market that has been rising. Previously, the North American economy was improving, and long-term interest rates were rising rapidly and inflation expectations were rising.
Reinforcement related.]
[What is worrying is that if the North American economy operates above this level for too long, it may lead to inflationary pressure and financial imbalances, triggering an economic downturn. The recent rise in U.S. bond yields has been apparent, and behind the acceleration of expansion, the market is worried that the U.S. economy is accelerating.
A surge in bond yields can trigger a butterfly effect, causing potential market bubbles to burst and trigger a recession.]
[Comparatively speaking, if the U.S. stock market plummets, it will mostly contain bubble components. Domestic A-shares will also be affected by the fall in global stock markets, but it will be more affected by the imported black swan events caused by the short-term collapse of external markets.
The overall valuation level of A-shares has been at a low level for a long time, while US stocks are currently in a high-valuation risk position.]
[Risk warning: Macroeconomic policy changes, economic growth is lower than expected, and black swan events on a global scale cannot be ruled out]
[Strategy: Mainly hold the currency and wait and see. The price of the safe-haven asset gold is expected to rise, and it can be allocated appropriately.]
After reading the contents of the research report, Lao Yang secretly underestimated: "It even gave such a clear idea on how to operate..."
But then again, after reading this research report, Lao Yang was still very surprised. He did not expect to receive such bad news on the first day after the holiday.
This is obviously a bearish report that can no longer be bearish on the market. Moreover, it is an influential investment institution like Tiansheng Capital. It is obviously heavy news that is bad for the market.
After seeing it, Lao Yang decided not to do anything but eat and drink!
Because the core position is held by Tiansheng Holdings, the cost price is low enough, and it adheres to long-termism, there is nothing to move, and the funds for short-term trading of Dongfang Communications stock have also been withdrawn.
Since Brother Yi is not optimistic about the market outlook, then this part of the short-term funds will be left alone for the time being. At most, he can just buy some gold.
Lao Yang is indeed very powerful, but he is not a god. He does not know that Dongfang Communications will have a second and third wave of market prices in the later period, directly pushing the super market price of 10 times in total. In his opinion, Dongfang Communications
After Fang Communication realized the nine-connected board, it also came to an end.
At present, as major media quoted and reported Tiansheng Capital's analysis report, various funds in the market were very surprised. Basically, everyone who should read it that day had already seen this report.
It can be said that it is very clear and undisguised. It reminds the market of risks in the near future, and even gives strategies, either to hold the currency and wait and see, or to buy some gold or something. These are all very clear. As for whether you believe it or not?
