Chapter 511 [Starting with 3 trillion, 6 trillion is not a dream]
At 13:00 in the afternoon, the market opened as scheduled. The securities sector maintained its inertia and fell by nearly 1 percentage point in the few minutes after the opening. It stabilized near the green mark and maintained fluctuations near the zero axis. This was mainly due to the loss of Tiansheng Holdings, the leader of the sector.
It stopped falling after falling about -6%.
Although the sector did not turn green, the securities sector opened 4.5% higher today, and those who followed through the early bidding were trapped.
I thought that the securities companies had stopped falling and stabilized, and the market would improve in the afternoon. Unexpectedly, the weighted blue chips of the large consumer sector, led by liquor, staged a big dive in the afternoon, and the decline expanded to -8%. The entire sector was in decline, and the market was
Keep up the pressure.
Seeing the heavy consumption of liquor plummeting in the afternoon, those who came out of these sectors in early trading and chased the securities firms managed to gain some balance in their minds, thinking that it was going to be a fall anyway, so where is the fall that is not a fall?
I can only lament and laugh at myself...
After the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2594.82 points, down -3.02%. Before the opening, the index was at 2675 points. Everyone thought that today they could pursue victory and break through 2700 points in one fell swoop.
As a result, Big A broke through downwards and once again broke through the 2600-point integer. It only stood for a day and then disappeared.
Tiansheng Holdings also closed a big negative line today, closing down -6.28%. The stock price closed at 38,735.58 yuan. The round-digit mark of 40,000 yuan also returned in one day. The market value evaporated by 207.6 billion, which is equivalent to evaporation.
1.16 Zhongxin Securities.
The market has never been less analytical about the stock of Tiansheng Holdings, especially since the total market value has reached 3 trillion in recent times.
There is no doubt that this company is legendary, especially its performance this year is unparalleled. Other major blue-chip companies are falling and being cut in half. On the other hand, Tiansheng Holdings is setting new highs all the way.
But after reaching the super size of 3 trillion market value, a voice began to appear in the market, thinking that Tiansheng Holdings has basically ended the era of high growth. To put it bluntly, it means that it has missed the best era of Tiansheng. Investing in it now is
The risks outweigh the opportunities.
This kind of argument is also discussed in the group by Lao Yang, Brother 8000 and others.
Group friend: "I think what I said makes sense. From the perspective of income, it is true. Of course, there is no doubt that Tiansheng Capital is an excellent non-bank financial company. But in terms of investment return, in the future
Earnings are definitely not as high as they were two years ago."
Group friend: "Indeed, judging from the restoration price, the market value has soared nearly 15 times in about three years. It stands to reason that it has passed its growth period."
Group friend: "How can I say Nagri Electric, Maoti, etc. Their restoration prices are even more exaggerated, more than 50 times or even 100 times. Tiansheng is only 15 times. How can this be..."
Group friend: "It also depends on the size. Gerry's current market value is just over 200 billion, which has doubled to about 400 billion. But what about Tiansheng Holdings now? Assuming that it doubles again, it means that the total market value will exceed 60,000.
billion, the absolute values of the two are too great. The former has an absolute value of 200 billion, and the latter is 3 trillion, but the return rate for investors is 1 times."
Obviously, the main point of the discussion among the people in the group is that Tiansheng Capital is now too large, and the same income growth consumes more funds than other stocks, and this leads to the conclusion that investment returns are diminishing.
It seems to make sense. Just like if the funds in the market want to push a behemoth like Tiansheng Holdings to a daily limit without a huge amount of billions of funds, it is almost impossible. The market value will increase in the future.
The amount of funds required tends to be larger, but for some small and medium-cap stocks, hundreds of millions or even tens of millions of funds can easily raise a daily limit.
Not long after, Lao Yang also joined the discussion and said via voice chat: "Tiansheng's size is indeed very large, but it is unreasonable to say that the market value cannot rise after it is large. The valuation is not high.
Gao can't look at it like this."
After a while, Lao Yang continued to chat: "The first step in the growth of a company's market value is for investors to set an expectation for it, and then the valuation expands, which is reflected in the market as the stock price rises, and then the company's profit growth will push the expected valuation.
It’s worth digesting.”
"Let's just talk about Tiansheng Holdings. From the backdoor listing of about 300 billion to the current figure of about 3 trillion, first of all, investors from all walks of life in the market must be optimistic about the company, including the industry and the managers of the company."
"Then we investors will give a certain valuation premium because of this. After three years of development to the current 3 trillion, Tiansheng Capital has also proved that it is worth 3 trillion. At this time, the valuation has been pulled back, and then
The next step is to give a second round of valuations, and so on."
"So a good company should actually expand its valuation, and then the market value will reach a certain level and start to fluctuate. During this period, the company's profit growth will digest the valuation, and then investors will further give new expected growth, and Tiansheng Holdings will go public.
The market trend since then has been one of upward breakthroughs step by step.”
When people in the group heard what Lao Yang said, they all opened the K-line chart of Tiansheng Holdings for reference. Except for the special time node during which there was a sharp rise and fall, the rest of the time was indeed a platform breakthrough.
It can be said that the K-line of Tiansheng Holdings is running very beautifully. The market gives the expected valuation premium first, that is, a few big positive lines rise, and then it starts to fluctuate. After the performance of Tiansheng Holdings comes out, this part of the premium is digested.
, the stock price immediately breaks through and reaches the next level, and the cycle repeats.
There is no doubt that this is a virtuous positive cycle of corporate profits and market value expansion. When the performance realizes the valuation, few investors of Tiansheng Holdings will cash out and leave the market, but will choose to continue to hold because the company is excellent.
, there is a high probability that it will grow further in the future, and of course there is no reason to cash out and leave.
At this time, Lao Yang continued: "I don't know if everyone has forgotten something, but I haven't forgotten it. In the first half of the year, Brother Yi said on his social media website that he would pay a base dividend of 200 billion yuan by the end of this year.
, this is a clear sign that the probability of Tiansheng Capital breaking its promise is extremely low. Some people say that this expectation has been fulfilled long ago, but no matter what, the stock price will definitely be able to absorb a lot of it by then, which in turn will release room for growth."
"As long as the company maintains its current growth rate, there will be no reason to leave the stock. It's not a problem that the market value is too large. Apple can exceed 6 trillion, so why can't domestic companies have a size of 6 trillion? You say
Apple is high-tech, and the stock market looks at the future. There is no comparison, but these are stories. The capital market is super realistic. If you really can’t make money, capital will immediately slap your butt and leave, and the story has become
ACCIDENT."
"Tian Sheng Capital has now used its solid performance to prove that its profitability is even better than that of Apple. Not to mention that Zhongxin raised the target price to 50,000 yuan before, I would not be surprised if the target price was 80,000 yuan.
.”
Obviously, Lao Yang is a die-hard supporter of Tiansheng Capital, and his logical point of view is also very clear. As long as Tiansheng Capital can maintain its current momentum, achieve stable performance and meet expectations without breaking trust in the market, there is no reason to be short on this company.
The reason is that the short position is simply not valid.
The performance has not changed, but the stock price has fallen sharply. That is a golden pit, and Lao Yang will not hesitate to buy the bottom.
