Chapter 591 [Can new energy skyrocket in the future? 】
Another deep-seated reason why Lao Yang doesn’t want a penny for life and death is that he is more worried about the potential legal risks of forming a team to conquer the big A. Although many preparations have been made, such as Lao Yang also obtained a private equity license, as a campaign
Old A is a 20-year veteran. He has seen too many cases of entry into the securities market. He does not have a strong backing. In fact, he is just a bad guy, so he chooses to be more stable in this kind of thing.
There is absolutely no profit involved in speculation. Even if it gets into trouble in the future, you won't get involved. The crime of illegal profit-making will definitely not be charged.
But then again, Lao Yang has also been considering the issue of risk sharing in this area of investment during this time. Now all his worth is bet on one stock, which is Tiansheng Holdings.
Theoretically speaking, the risk here is actually very high. When the capital is less than 10 million, the strategy is to go all out and be aggressive. If necessary, be more aggressive and use leverage, because in this way, primitive accumulation can be completed quickly.
Nowadays, the net worth has reached hundreds of millions, and the original accumulation of wealth has been completed. Compared with the appreciation of assets, preservation of value is more important.
To put it bluntly, we cannot continue to play with one stock, and we cannot put all our eggs in one basket. Even from the perspective of return on investment, if all positions are placed in Tiansheng Holdings, we will not be able to achieve the same excess returns as in the past three years.
Three years ago, Tiansheng Holdings went public through a backdoor merger. At that time, its total market value was only 240 billion. Now it has surpassed the Big Mac with a total market value of 3 trillion.
Taking 240 billion as a base to increase more than ten times in about three years is quite an exaggeration. Taking the current base of 3 trillion to increase ten times again, that is a total market value of more than 30 trillion, which is larger than the current total of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.
The market value is already high, let alone three years or even ten years is extremely exaggerated.
This is obviously unrealistic.
In Lao Yang's view, it is quite difficult for the current stock kings to double their value, let alone ten times more. Doubling the total market value will reach more than 6 trillion, even if the stock kings have this potential
, the pond of Big A may not be able to accommodate such a behemoth.
Taking a step back, even if Big A wants to accommodate this super behemoth, the pool must first be expanded, right? Further expansion of Big A will also take time, so even if Tiansheng Holdings can increase tenfold in the future, it may take ten times.
Several years or even longer.
So even if we don't talk about risk issues, from the perspective of return on investment and time cost, we should still free up some positions and choose other targets.
Lao Yang is currently very interested in a new stock that has not yet been listed on the market. The answer is Tianchi Technology, which is about to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board!
Since yesterday, Lao Yang has downloaded the 763-page electronic attachment of Tianchi Technology’s prospectus. Currently, he spends most of his time studying this prospectus. Tianchi Technology’s listing prospectus was actually released half a month ago.
It has been published before.
Fortunately, there are still several months before listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. This is not the first time that Lao Yang has read the prospectus of a listed company, so there is definitely no problem in terms of time.
And don’t look at the fact that the prospectus of a listed company often has hundreds of pages of content, which seems quite exaggerated, but a lot of the content is actually repeated, such as the “risk warning” item, which often involves industry characteristics, peer competition, supervision, etc.
etc., so there is no need to read from the first page to the last page.
Senior players in the stock market like Lao Yang will quickly find the corresponding chapter content they want to see most on the content page when reading a prospectus.
In fact, few of the retail investors in Big A who buy new stocks actually read the prospectus documents. They were immediately persuaded to quit after hearing the contents of several hundred pages. They all closed their eyes and clicked one button to buy new stocks.
But it's one thing if investors don't see it.
Since the prospectus is aimed at public investors, it seeks to be rigorous in expression, watertight, and comprehensive in content. A large amount of content has "skip" value, but has no information value.
For example, Tianchi Technology's prospectus contains a "forward-looking statement" item. The "hopes", "possibility", "opportunities" and other places mentioned in it are predictions and expectations. However, as a qualified investor, they will not
Take all of this seriously.
Similar to information redundancy, "hardest hit areas" also include "risk warning" items. Tianchi Technology's prospectus contains 129 pages of "risk warning" content, accounting for 16.9% of the total space.
Lao Yang's interest in the new energy industry is not a matter of a day or two. One of the very important logics is that Tiansheng Capital has made a heavy bet in this industry and is fully deploying the new energy industry. That is an astronomical investment worth hundreds of billions.
Figures show that real money has been poured into this industry, which can be said to be a huge investment.
Super institutional investors like Tiansheng Capital are betting so much that they should not ignore this industry in any case. In the new energy field, especially the new energy vehicle industry, Lao Yang actually doesn’t quite understand it and can’t quite understand its logic. This story has already
I have been talking about it for more than ten years or even longer. Judging from past examples, most of them are basically hype.
Besides, the share price of Tesla, the world's leading company in this industry, has halved. Whether the hype is just about telling stories, or whether it can truly lead industrial change, there is a big question mark in Lao Yang's heart.
Nowadays, Tiansheng Capital, which is known as the model of "smart money", has invested hundreds of billions in this field, but it has magnified the question marks in Lao Yang's heart.
One of the points that Lao Yang can't figure out now is that Tiansheng Capital has spent so much money, and it will take years and months just to recover the cost?
Can new energy stocks surge in the future?
If it is just a hype-like surge in conceptual themes, such a rise will be completely meaningless to the amount of investment by Tiansheng Capital. Once it rises, it will never be withdrawn. It is worth hundreds of billions. How can it be that it is easy to get out when you go in?
so easy?
…
In the next few days, Lao Yang stopped being in the group and started to bubble up. Their hot money team also participated in the speculation of Shunhao shares, but when the emperor had 15 consecutive boards, Lao Yang chose to withdraw.
The reason for withdrawing is not because he thinks that the market of Emperor Shunhao has peaked. The current market sentiment is very hot and is far from reaching the top. No one dares to predict the top easily due to such emotional hype.
Lao Yang withdrew because he had to study the new energy industry sector and the IPO prospectus of Tianchi Technology these days, so he had no time and energy to speculate.
And now most of the funds are lying in the big financial sector, waiting for the main rising market to arrive. The pattern has been there since I entered it before. In the past month, the securities sector has been fluctuating sideways, with ups and downs, and there was also a "squat" during this period.
During the panic market, Lao Yang and his colleagues once lost four or five points in their positions, but he did not make any operations and continued to hold shares, integrating knowledge and action.
At this moment, Lao Yang was sitting in front of his computer. After reading the prospectus of Tianchi Technology for a while, he couldn't help but said to himself: "Why does Brother Yi dare to bet on new energy? Those so-called new energy vehicles on the market, new energy
It’s just an external statement. New energy vehicles use electricity, but behind the electricity they burn coal. From the source, the so-called new energy is still the traditional energy that burns coal, and the carbon emissions of coal are higher than those of oil.
The carbon emissions are twice as high.”
This is a big reason why Lao Yang has not been optimistic about new energy for a long time.
Domestic power generation mainly relies on burning coal. This is the reason why Lao Yang has long characterized new energy as conceptual speculation. He does not believe that this industry sector is suitable for long-term value investment. At most, if a gust of wind comes and takes advantage of the trend, it will be a short-term speculation and then it will be withdrawn.
The most typical negative teaching material is Steve Jobs, who will return to China next week. Anyway, previous examples have proved that new energy cannot work.
But since Lu Ming's lightning rise, Tiansheng Capital has become a behemoth, and Lu Ming has invested hundreds of billions of astronomical sums in bets. This size is not comparable to that of Jabs.
Lu Ming's record in the investment world is disorderly and too much to go into detail. Lao Yang is confused by the fact that such a strong man is so aggressive in new energy.
He does not think that he is better than Lu Ming or Tiansheng Capital's huge professional team. They are hard-working people with real money. At this time, Lao Yang has to re-examine new energy.
