At today's closing, Lao Yang simply used the Elliott Wave Theory to analyze how the market outlook will go. The wave theory is useless for individual stocks, but it is very useful for the market index.
In this spring's market trend, the index rose sharply from 2440 points to 3288 points, which is a typical wave trend.
From January 4th to 21st, the market started to rise out of the "first wave"; from January 22nd to 31st, it entered the "second wave" correction; from February 1st to March 7th, it entered the most ferocious "third wave"
The main ascending sequence; then it entered the "four-wave" adjustment from March 8 to 28; from March 29 to the present, it has been a "five-wave" rise, with the index reaching a maximum of 3288 points.
According to the wave theory, the completion of the first five waves means the end of the main rising wave, followed by the main falling wave of AB.
The reason why Lao Yang uses the wave theory to analyze the trend of the market is because it is very useful to analyze the trend of the Big A index, and the wave theory may not be suitable for the external market, but it is especially suitable for the Big A shares.
The reason is that there are too many people playing big A. There are hundreds of millions of investors participating in this market, and individual movement trajectories are difficult to predict. Therefore, the wave theory cannot be applied to individual stocks. Nine times out of ten, it will overturn. The main players in individual stocks
, Zhuang these are difficult to guess their intentions.
However, group behavior can predict the general trend, and the trading model of group power in the entire process includes the incubation period, awakening period, fanaticism period, and disillusionment period. The current trend of Big A perfectly fits this model.
The market's adjustments in recent trading days and today's big positive line are typical bull traps.
…
The next day, Wednesday, April 17th.
At around 10:40 in the morning, Lu Ming returned to his office after a meeting. There were two reports on his desk. Lu Ming took them to the sofa and sat down, crossing his legs and opening them to read.
Han Qiulin sent it ten minutes ago, one of which was the first quarter economic data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics at around 10 o'clock this morning.
According to a spokesperson from the Bureau of Statistics at a press conference today, the domestic economy was relatively stable in the first quarter, especially in March when most indicators were better than expected. Market expectations are constantly being exceeded and positive factors are gradually increasing.
Judging from the entire first quarter of this year, the economy has started off smoothly and is making progress.
The GDP growth in the first quarter was 6.5%, which was significantly better than market expectations. Some market forecasts were 6.3%, and some forecasts were 6.2%. In absolute terms, the total GDP in the first quarter was 23.36 trillion yuan.
"The impact has become more and more obvious..."
Seeing this number, Lu Ming suddenly said to himself. He couldn't help but recall the data for the same period in the previous life. The GDP growth rate was 6.4%, but now this data is 6.5%. Not only has the growth rate become larger, but the absolute number is also different.
A lot. The absolute value of the data for the same period in the previous life was 21.34 trillion yuan, which means that it was a full 2 trillion yuan more.
In fact, Lu Ming knew that it had been very obvious since last year. The total GDP in 2018 was 91.92 trillion yuan, but in fact last year's figure was 97.33 trillion yuan, which was 5.41 trillion yuan more.
This year it is even more obvious. The first quarter has come to an end, and there has been an increase of 2 trillion yuan in just one quarter.
This is only normal. Tiansheng Capital is now frantically harvesting profits from overseas. If the domestic data cannot exceed the data of the same period in the previous generation, it will be abnormal.
There are three methods for calculating GDP, namely the production method, the income method and the expenditure method. Last year, Tiansheng Capital’s total revenue was almost 1 trillion, and in the first quarter of this year, it made more than 550 billion.
Whether it's from salaries, interest, profits, depreciation, taxes or corporate transfer payments, the figures are astronomical.
The driving effect produced by such a size is powerful. It is normal for Tiansheng Capital to drive an actual increase of 5.41 trillion yuan last year.
However, what is interesting is that the current total market value of Tiansheng Capital is almost 5 trillion, and what is even more interesting is that the three major indexes of Big A are moving very steadily. In the previous life, the market high in 2018 was 3587.
Numbers such as 3288 are also the same in this life.
That means that Tiansheng Holdings' current market value of 5 trillion is, loosely speaking, absorbed from thousands of other listed companies in Big A. There is so much glory here, but behind it, there are a large number of listed companies that have been
Suppression, even some big blue chips have been suppressed, unless they are included in the Tiansheng Shanghai 50 Index or Tiansheng Shenzhen 100 Index constituent stocks, some of these 150 stocks even have a premium.
And some junk stocks are really miserable. A single sale of hundreds of thousands of dollars can create a deep hole for you. The liquidity is almost exhausted. Many of them have been converted into Hong Kong stocks several years in advance. However, the stock kings have tens of billions of transactions every day.
.
The essence of the stock market is that every profit earned by one investor is meat cut off from another investor. In fact, the total volume has not changed much. There are more incremental funds and no funds are withdrawn from the market.
few.
Another key factor why the market is so "stable" is that the people in the village are keeping an eye on it. If they can't move down when they reach a key position, they just hit it directly. There are many ways.
Lu Ming took a rough look at the economic data from the Bureau of Statistics, put this document aside, and then opened another document to read it.
This is the company’s first quarter sales report disclosed by Tianchi Technology at around 9 o’clock this morning.
Data shows that Tianchi Technology’s production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter were 432,900 and 431,600 respectively. Basically, after one vehicle was produced, it was sold immediately after quality inspection and delivered to the owner. Proper production and sales
Two blooms.
What's even more explosive than this data is that the current order volume for the "Shanchi" model exceeds 450,000 units, and electric vehicle consumers from all over the country are queuing up to wait for delivery from Tianchi Technology.
It reached its peak right after its debut, directly parachuted to the number one position in new energy vehicles, knocking domestic BYD and international Tesla to the ground and becoming the sales king in the world's new energy field.
Tianchi Technology currently has insufficient production capacity. The current monthly production capacity is about 103,900 vehicles. The new production capacity will not be put into mass production until September this year. The current production capacity of 100,000 vehicles a month is the limit.
But then again, the current actual situation of Tianchi Technology is that you lose money when you buy one, and the more you sell, the more you lose. If Tiansheng Capital and Lu Ming hadn’t financed it, Tianchi Technology would definitely have lost money.
The ground exploded.
Therefore, colleagues are helpless, even desperate. Tianchi Technology is now so powerful that it cannot be suppressed at all.
The industry is in a state of ice and fire. Tianchi's technology here is very hot, with state subsidies and Tiansheng Capital as the backing. There are no peers like Lu Ming who are funders, and subsidies for new energy are still continuing.
Cutting down, it can be said that the cold winter is fierce.
After the Tianchi Technology report was disclosed, almost all peers knew that the first new energy vehicle manufacturer in history with an annual sales volume of one million was about to be born, and it would be this year.
Before this, no one in the industry dared to think that any peer manufacturer could achieve annual sales of one million this year.
Faced with the "Flash" model launched by Tianchi Technology, domestic pure electric car consumers almost voted with their feet, due to the widespread charging pile infrastructure in the country, truly affordable prices, and so on.
There is absolutely no competitive advantage among our competitors.
Now some peers cannot compete head-on, so they can only do things behind the scenes and engage in labeling.
